---
title: "Red Case case on Hellcase: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Red Case ($1.89) on Hellcase, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 86.01% from 137 items with odds, observed 80.61% over 1,931 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/red-case
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:14Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hellcase](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hellcase) / [Red Case](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/red-case)

# [Hellcase](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hellcase) · Red Case

A case on Hellcase (discounts), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Hellcase's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/red-case?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/red-case?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/red-case) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/red-case?window=all)

Price · $1.89

Advertised RTP · 86.01% · EV $1.63 from 137 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 80.61% · 1,931 openings, odds method

Variance · 7.1× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 17.7% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 92.8% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 96 openings · below min

7 days · 80.85% ±14.73 891 openings

30 days · 80.61% ±10.84 1,931 openings

since tracking started · 80.61% ±10.84 1,931 openings

63.0% 108.5% 154.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/red-case?window=24h) | 96 | 108.27% ±44.9 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/red-case?window=7d) | 891 | 80.85% ±14.7 | +1.1σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/red-case) | 1,931 | 80.61% ±10.8 | +0.4σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/red-case?window=all) | 1,931 | 80.61% ±10.8 | +0.4σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 137 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,939 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-kill-confirmed-field-tested) | 1 in 50,000 | $280 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-kill-confirmed-well-worn) | 1 in 33,333 | $203 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-kill-confirmed-battle-scarred) | 1 in 25,000 | $183 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25,000 | $167 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-field-tested) | 1 in 25,000 | $148 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25,000 | $138 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Five-SeveN \| Crimson Blossom (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-crimson-blossom-battle-scarred) | 1 in 25,000 | $136 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Five-SeveN \| Crimson Blossom (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-crimson-blossom-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $125 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [MAC-10 \| Red Filigree (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-red-filigree-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20,000 | $123 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [MAC-10 \| Red Filigree (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-red-filigree-field-tested) | 1 in 20,000 | $122 | 0.4% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-orbit-mk01-factory-new) | 1 in 16,667 | $119 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-well-worn) | 1 in 20,000 | $116 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-orbit-mk01-factory-new) | 1 in 14,286 | $100 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Five-SeveN \| Crimson Blossom (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-crimson-blossom-minimal-wear) | 1 in 16,667 | $100 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Five-SeveN \| Crimson Blossom (Well-Worn) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-crimson-blossom-well-worn) | 1 in 14,286 | $99.34 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ P90 \| Cold Blooded (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-cold-blooded-factory-new) | 1 in 16,667 | $99.27 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 12,500 | $86.72 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [Five-SeveN \| Crimson Blossom (Field-Tested) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-crimson-blossom-field-tested) | 1 in 14,286 | $83.26 | 0.4% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-field-tested) | 1 in 12,500 | $81.50 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-orbit-mk01-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14,286 | $80.60 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [MAC-10 \| Red Filigree (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-red-filigree-battle-scarred) | 1 in 12,500 | $78.80 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-well-worn) | 1 in 12,500 | $73.21 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-battle-scarred) | 1 in 11,111 | $72.58 | 0.4% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-orbit-mk01-battle-scarred) | 1 in 11,111 | $69.12 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [P90 \| Cold Blooded (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-cold-blooded-minimal-wear) | 1 in 11,111 | $68.80 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-orbit-mk01-well-worn) | 1 in 10,000 | $66.64 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-orbit-mk01-field-tested) | 1 in 11,111 | $64.92 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [MP7 \| Full Stop (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-full-stop-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $61.33 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [MP9 \| Setting Sun (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-setting-sun-factory-new) | 1 in 8,333 | $52.70 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [MP7 \| Full Stop (Battle-Scarred) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-full-stop-battle-scarred) | 1 in 7,692 | $49.38 | 0.4% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Dual Berettas \| Hemoglobin (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-dual-berettas-hemoglobin-factory-new) | 1 in 6,250 | $40.57 | 0.4% | 2 | 0.3 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 6,667 | $40.49 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [StatTrak™ P250 \| Muertos (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-muertos-factory-new) | 1 in 6,250 | $39.57 | 0.4% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [MP7 \| Full Stop (Well-Worn) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-full-stop-well-worn) | 1 in 6,250 | $38.09 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-orbit-mk01-minimal-wear) | 1 in 6,250 | $37.30 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [MP7 \| Full Stop (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-full-stop-field-tested) | 1 in 5,556 | $33.03 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Dual Berettas \| Hemoglobin (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-dual-berettas-hemoglobin-minimal-wear) | 1 in 5,000 | $31.09 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [MP7 \| Full Stop (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-full-stop-minimal-wear) | 1 in 4,762 | $30.64 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-orbit-mk01-field-tested) | 1 in 4,762 | $29.18 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [StatTrak™ P2000 \| Obsidian (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-obsidian-factory-new) | 1 in 4,545 | $28.78 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-orbit-mk01-well-worn) | 1 in 4,545 | $28.55 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Dual Berettas \| Hemoglobin (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-dual-berettas-hemoglobin-field-tested) | 1 in 4,545 | $28.32 | 0.4% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-orbit-mk01-battle-scarred) | 1 in 4,545 | $28.16 | 0.4% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 4,167 | $25.29 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-evil-daimyo-factory-new) | 1 in 4,167 | $25.24 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-crimson-web-well-worn) | 1 in 4,000 | $24.76 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-crimson-web-battle-scarred) | 1 in 3,846 | $24.42 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [StatTrak™ P250 \| Muertos (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-muertos-minimal-wear) | 1 in 4,000 | $24.38 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [P250 \| Muertos (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-muertos-factory-new) | 1 in 3,571 | $22.14 | 0.4% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| [StatTrak™ P250 \| Muertos (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-muertos-well-worn) | 1 in 3,448 | $21.97 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [MP9 \| Setting Sun (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-setting-sun-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,333 | $20.64 | 0.4% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| [StatTrak™ P250 \| Muertos (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-muertos-battle-scarred) | 1 in 3,333 | $20.51 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [P2000 \| Obsidian (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-obsidian-factory-new) | 1 in 3,030 | $18.79 | 0.4% | 2 | 0.6 | — |
| [Dual Berettas \| Hemoglobin (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-hemoglobin-factory-new) | 1 in 2,941 | $18.02 | 0.4% | 1 | 0.7 | — |
| [StatTrak™ P250 \| Muertos (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-muertos-field-tested) | 1 in 2,778 | $17.34 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [Dual Berettas \| Hemoglobin (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-hemoglobin-field-tested) | 1 in 2,703 | $16.52 | 0.4% | 1 | 0.7 | — |
| [MAG-7 \| Core Breach (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-core-breach-factory-new) | 1 in 2,564 | $16.20 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-evil-daimyo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,500 | $15.70 | 0.4% | 2 | 0.8 | — |
| [P250 \| Muertos (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-muertos-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,500 | $15.46 | 0.4% | 2 | 0.8 | — |
| [Dual Berettas \| Hemoglobin (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-hemoglobin-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,381 | $14.99 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [P250 \| Muertos (Well-Worn) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-muertos-well-worn) | 1 in 2,381 | $14.92 | 0.4% | 2 | 0.8 | — |
| [P250 \| Muertos (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-muertos-field-tested) | 1 in 2,381 | $14.75 | 0.4% | 1 | 0.8 | — |
| [P250 \| Muertos (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-muertos-battle-scarred) | 1 in 2,381 | $14.74 | 0.4% | 1 | 0.8 | — |
| [MP9 \| Setting Sun (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-setting-sun-field-tested) | 1 in 2,174 | $13.80 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [AUG \| Random Access (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-random-access-factory-new) | 1 in 2,128 | $13.26 | 0.4% | 1 | 0.9 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 2,083 | $12.84 | 0.4% | 1 | 0.9 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-crimson-web-well-worn) | 1 in 2,041 | $12.73 | 0.4% | 0 | 1.0 | — |
| [MP9 \| Setting Sun (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-setting-sun-well-worn) | 1 in 2,000 | $12.43 | 0.4% | 0 | 1.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-crimson-web-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,852 | $11.56 | 0.4% | 1 | 1.0 | 0.96× |
| [MP9 \| Setting Sun (Battle-Scarred) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-setting-sun-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,818 | $11.24 | 0.4% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.94× |
| [StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Darkwing (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-darkwing-factory-new) | 1 in 1,786 | $11.06 | 0.4% | 2 | 1.1 | 1.84× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-evil-daimyo-well-worn) | 1 in 1,786 | $11.03 | 0.4% | 4 | 1.1 | 3.68× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-evil-daimyo-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,754 | $10.97 | 0.4% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.90× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-evil-daimyo-field-tested) | 1 in 1,754 | $10.90 | 0.4% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-evil-daimyo-factory-new) | 1 in 1,562 | $9.75 | 0.4% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.81× |
| [Slingshot \| Phoenix agent · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/slingshot-phoenix) | 1 in 1,538 | $9.49 | 0.4% | 0 | 1.3 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ P2000 \| Obsidian (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-obsidian-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,493 | $9.28 | 0.4% | 5 | 1.3 | 3.85× |
| [StatTrak™ P2000 \| Obsidian (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-obsidian-well-worn) | 1 in 1,190 | $7.34 | 0.4% | 4 | 1.6 | 2.46× |
| [StatTrak™ P2000 \| Obsidian (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-obsidian-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,149 | $7.19 | 0.4% | 3 | 1.7 | 1.78× |
| [StatTrak™ P2000 \| Obsidian (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-obsidian-field-tested) | 1 in 1,149 | $7.18 | 0.4% | 2 | 1.7 | 1.19× |
| [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Urban Hazard (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-urban-hazard-factory-new) | 1 in 1,136 | $7.06 | 0.4% | 1 | 1.7 | 0.59× |
| [M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-evil-daimyo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $6.22 | 0.4% | 4 | 1.9 | 2.06× |
| [MAG-7 \| Core Breach (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-core-breach-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $6.18 | 0.4% | 6 | 1.9 | 3.09× |
| [P2000 \| Obsidian (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-obsidian-minimal-wear) | 1 in 962 | $6.01 | 0.4% | 1 | 2.0 | 0.50× |
| [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Urban Hazard (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-urban-hazard-minimal-wear) | 1 in 794 | $4.95 | 0.4% | 0 | 2.4 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ P250 \| Nevermore (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-nevermore-factory-new) | 1 in 769 | $4.80 | 0.4% | 1 | 2.5 | 0.40× |
| [SG 553 \| Darkwing (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-darkwing-factory-new) | 1 in 746 | $4.65 | 0.4% | 6 | 2.6 | 2.31× |
| [StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Signal (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-galil-ar-signal-factory-new) | 1 in 719 | $4.46 | 0.4% | 3 | 2.7 | 1.11× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Urban Hazard (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-urban-hazard-factory-new) | 1 in 649 | $4.04 | 0.4% | 4 | 3.0 | 1.34× |
| [StatTrak™ P250 \| Nevermore (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-nevermore-well-worn) | 1 in 602 | $3.73 | 0.4% | 4 | 3.2 | 1.24× |
| [M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-evil-daimyo-well-worn) | 1 in 595 | $3.70 | 0.4% | 0 | 3.3 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-evil-daimyo-field-tested) | 1 in 595 | $3.70 | 0.4% | 4 | 3.3 | 1.23× |
| [M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-evil-daimyo-battle-scarred) | 1 in 581 | $3.62 | 0.4% | 5 | 3.3 | 1.50× |
| [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Urban Hazard (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-urban-hazard-field-tested) | 1 in 535 | $3.32 | 0.4% | 4 | 3.6 | 1.10× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Urban Hazard (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-urban-hazard-minimal-wear) | 1 in 513 | $3.20 | 0.4% | 4 | 3.8 | 1.06× |
| [StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Darkwing (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-darkwing-minimal-wear) | 1 in 465 | $2.90 | 0.4% | 4 | 4.2 | 0.96× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Urban Hazard (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-urban-hazard-field-tested) | 1 in 465 | $2.89 | 0.4% | 8 | 4.2 | 1.92× |
| [StatTrak™ P250 \| Nevermore (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-nevermore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 448 | $2.79 | 0.4% | 3 | 4.3 | 0.69× |
| [Galil AR \| Signal (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-signal-factory-new) | 1 in 408 | $2.54 | 0.4% | 6 | 4.8 | 1.26× |
| [StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Signal (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-galil-ar-signal-minimal-wear) | 1 in 394 | $2.45 | 0.4% | 5 | 4.9 | 1.02× |
| [P2000 \| Obsidian (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-obsidian-field-tested) | 1 in 389 | $2.42 | 0.4% | 4 | 5.0 | 0.80× |
| [P250 \| Nevermore (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-nevermore-factory-new) | 1 in 372 | $2.31 | 0.4% | 7 | 5.2 | 1.34× |
| [Glock-18 \| Candy Apple (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-candy-apple-factory-new) | 1 in 369 | $2.30 | 0.4% | 7 | 5.3 | 1.33× |
| [AUG \| Random Access (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-random-access-minimal-wear) | 1 in 348 | $2.17 | 0.4% | 8 | 5.6 | 1.44× |
| [StatTrak™ P250 \| Nevermore (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-nevermore-field-tested) | 1 in 314 | $1.96 | 0.4% | 9 | 6.2 | 1.46× |
| [P2000 \| Obsidian (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-obsidian-battle-scarred) | 1 in 304 | $1.89 | 0.4% | 23 | 6.4 | 3.61× |
| [P2000 \| Obsidian (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-obsidian-well-worn) | 1 in 298 | $1.85 | 0.4% | 16 | 6.5 | 2.46× |
| [MAG-7 \| Core Breach (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-core-breach-field-tested) | 1 in 272 | $1.69 | 0.4% | 23 | 7.1 | 3.22× |
| [USP-S \| Check Engine (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-check-engine-factory-new) | 1 in 267 | $1.66 | 0.4% | 20 | 7.3 | 2.75× |
| [SG 553 \| Darkwing (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-darkwing-minimal-wear) | 1 in 264 | $1.64 | 0.4% | 26 | 7.3 | 3.54× |
| [Glock-18 \| Candy Apple (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-candy-apple-minimal-wear) | 1 in 46 | $1.61 | 2.1% | 42 | 42.0 | 1.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Candy Apple (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-candy-apple-field-tested) | 1 in 45 | $1.56 | 2.1% | 40 | 43.3 | 0.92× |
| [StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Signal (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-galil-ar-signal-well-worn) | 1 in 44 | $1.52 | 2.1% | 41 | 44.5 | 0.92× |
| [AUG \| Random Access (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-random-access-field-tested) | 1 in 42 | $1.47 | 2.1% | 42 | 46.0 | 0.91× |
| [P250 \| Nevermore (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-nevermore-well-worn) | 1 in 42 | $1.46 | 2.1% | 45 | 46.3 | 0.97× |
| [AUG \| Random Access (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-random-access-battle-scarred) | 1 in 40 | $1.40 | 2.1% | 48 | 48.3 | 0.99× |
| [AUG \| Random Access (Well-Worn) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-random-access-well-worn) | 1 in 40 | $1.38 | 2.1% | 44 | 49.0 | 0.90× |
| [StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Signal (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-galil-ar-signal-field-tested) | 1 in 38 | $1.32 | 2.1% | 49 | 51.2 | 0.96× |
| [P250 \| Nevermore (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-nevermore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 37 | $1.29 | 2.1% | 39 | 52.4 | 0.74× |
| [MAG-7 \| Core Breach (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-core-breach-well-worn) | 1 in 36 | $1.27 | 2.1% | 52 | 53.2 | 0.98× |
| [Galil AR \| Signal (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-signal-minimal-wear) | 1 in 36 | $1.25 | 2.1% | 53 | 54.1 | 0.98× |
| [StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Signal (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-galil-ar-signal-battle-scarred) | 1 in 36 | $1.25 | 2.1% | 45 | 54.1 | 0.83× |
| [StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Darkwing (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-darkwing-field-tested) | 1 in 35 | $1.22 | 2.1% | 59 | 55.4 | 1.07× |
| [MAG-7 \| Core Breach (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-core-breach-battle-scarred) | 1 in 35 | $1.21 | 2.1% | 66 | 55.9 | 1.18× |
| [P250 \| Nevermore (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-nevermore-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $1.16 | 2.1% | 48 | 58.3 | 0.82× |
| [USP-S \| Check Engine (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-check-engine-minimal-wear) | 1 in 32 | $1.10 | 2.1% | 56 | 61.4 | 0.91× |
| [StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Darkwing (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-darkwing-battle-scarred) | 1 in 29 | $1.02 | 2.1% | 57 | 66.3 | 0.86× |
| [StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Darkwing (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-darkwing-well-worn) | 1 in 29 | $1.00 | 2.1% | 59 | 67.6 | 0.87× |
| [SG 553 \| Darkwing (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-darkwing-field-tested) | 1 in 26 | $0.90 | 2.1% | 66 | 75.1 | 0.88× |
| [Galil AR \| Signal (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-signal-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $0.85 | 2.1% | 72 | 79.5 | 0.91× |
| [SG 553 \| Darkwing (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-darkwing-well-worn) | 1 in 23 | $0.80 | 2.1% | 75 | 84.5 | 0.89× |
| [SG 553 \| Darkwing (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-darkwing-battle-scarred) | 1 in 23 | $0.79 | 2.1% | 87 | 85.5 | 1.02× |
| [Galil AR \| Signal (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-signal-well-worn) | 1 in 21 | $0.74 | 2.1% | 97 | 91.3 | 1.06× |
| [Galil AR \| Signal (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-signal-battle-scarred) | 1 in 21 | $0.74 | 2.1% | 89 | 91.3 | 0.97× |
| [USP-S \| Check Engine (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-check-engine-field-tested) | 1 in 19 | $0.67 | 2.1% | 96 | 100.9 | 0.95× |
| [USP-S \| Check Engine (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-check-engine-well-worn) | 1 in 18 | $0.64 | 2.1% | 106 | 105.6 | 1.00× |
| [USP-S \| Check Engine (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-check-engine-battle-scarred) | 1 in 18 | $0.62 | 2.1% | 101 | 109.0 | 0.93× |

Values are Hellcase's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hellcase:api/open/red-case`, 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[MAC-10 | Red Filigree (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-red-filigree-field-tested) [Grievous](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/Grievous) $1.89 $122 64.56x 2026-11-03 05:06 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hellcase&case=red-case)

[P250 | Nevermore (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-nevermore-field-tested) [BREADLESS NIA](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/BREADLESS%20NIA) $2.25 $1.17 0.52x 2026-11-11 12:55 UTC

[Glock-18 | Candy Apple (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-candy-apple-field-tested) [jqb.exe](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/jqb.exe) $2.25 $1.51 0.67x 2026-11-11 12:17 UTC

[Glock-18 | Candy Apple (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-candy-apple-field-tested) [jqb.exe](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/jqb.exe) $2.25 $1.51 0.67x 2026-11-11 12:17 UTC

[P250 | Muertos (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-muertos-minimal-wear) [jqb.exe](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/jqb.exe) $2.25 $15.85 7.04x 2026-11-11 12:17 UTC

[MAG-7 | Core Breach (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-core-breach-battle-scarred) [h3kp0](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/h3kp0) $2.25 $1.12 0.50x 2026-11-11 12:12 UTC

[USP-S | Check Engine (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-check-engine-battle-scarred) [Lightning McQueen](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/Lightning%20McQueen) $2.25 $0.62 0.28x 2026-11-11 11:59 UTC

[Glock-18 | Candy Apple (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-candy-apple-field-tested) [innata](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/innata) $2.25 $1.51 0.67x 2026-11-11 08:59 UTC

[MAG-7 | Core Breach (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-core-breach-battle-scarred) [Frog On Fentanyl](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/Frog%20On%20Fentanyl) $2.25 $1.12 0.50x 2026-11-11 08:31 UTC

[MAG-7 | Core Breach (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-core-breach-well-worn) [~v~KAİRO~v~](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/~v~KA%C4%B0RO~v~) $2.25 $1.20 0.53x 2026-11-11 08:31 UTC

[StatTrak™ SG 553 | Darkwing (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-darkwing-field-tested) [Butt\_Fcker\_5000](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/Butt_Fcker_5000) $2.25 $1.21 0.54x 2026-11-11 07:37 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $1.89 | 86.01% | 137 |
| 2 Nov, 21:49 UTC | $1.89 | 85.97% | 137 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.1% mil spec 22.4% restricted 47.3% milspec 0.1% classified 0.3% Mil Spec Grade 0.1% #4b69ff 0.4% violet 9.6% Mythical 6.7% #8847ff 5.4% #d32ce6 0.0% Rare 2.7% Restricted 4.8% best hit $122 (64.56x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 86.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $86.01 on average: an expected loss of $13.99 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt