---
title: "Red Mandate case on Hellcase: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Red Mandate ($37.00) on Hellcase, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.01% from 122 items with odds, observed 81.84% over 331 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/red-mandate
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:17Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hellcase](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hellcase) / [Red Mandate](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/red-mandate)

# [Hellcase](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hellcase) · Red Mandate

A case on Hellcase (esports), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Hellcase's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/red-mandate?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/red-mandate?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/red-mandate) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/red-mandate?window=all)

Price · $37.00

Advertised RTP · 88.01% · EV $32.57 from 122 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 81.84% · 331 openings, odds method

Variance · 2.5× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 11.3% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 77.9% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 14 openings · below min

7 days · 77.42% ±19.40 258 openings

30 days · 81.84% ±17.16 331 openings

since tracking started · 81.84% ±17.16 331 openings

-0.5% 75.8% 152.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/red-mandate?window=24h) | 14 | 68.49% ±82.8 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/red-mandate?window=7d) | 258 | 77.42% ±19.4 | −1.1σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/red-mandate) | 331 | 81.84% ±17.2 | −0.7σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/red-mandate?window=all) | 331 | 81.84% ±17.2 | −0.7σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 122 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 331 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 6,250 | $1,484 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-case-hardened-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,333 | $739 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 3,226 | $723 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 2,857 | $655 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-case-hardened-well-worn) | 1 in 2,564 | $584 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| The Emperor (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-the-emperor-factory-new) | 1 in 2,326 | $530 | 0.7% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-hyper-beast-factory-new) | 1 in 2,083 | $465 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Damascus Steel (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-damascus-steel-battle-scarred) | 1 in 2,000 | $457 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-damascus-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 1,961 | $444 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Damascus Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-damascus-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 1,961 | $443 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Damascus Steel (Well-Worn) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-damascus-steel-well-worn) | 1 in 1,923 | $440 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-ocean-drive-factory-new) | 1 in 1,923 | $439 | 0.7% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Damascus Steel (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-damascus-steel-well-worn) | 1 in 1,852 | $419 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-damascus-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,852 | $418 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-case-hardened-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,818 | $411 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-damascus-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 1,695 | $384 | 0.7% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-ocean-drive-factory-new) | 1 in 1,667 | $375 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-case-hardened-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,587 | $360 | 0.7% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Wildfire (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-wildfire-factory-new) | 1 in 1,587 | $358 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-factory-new) | 1 in 1,515 | $343 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Printstream (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-printstream-factory-new) | 1 in 1,389 | $317 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-huntsman-knife-tiger-tooth-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,282 | $289 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 1,111 | $251 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-huntsman-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $227 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-case-hardened-well-worn) | 1 in 943 | $213 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-case-hardened-battle-scarred) | 1 in 917 | $208 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-gold-toof-factory-new) | 1 in 917 | $207 | 0.7% | 2 | 0.4 | — |
| [M4A4 \| The Emperor (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-factory-new) | 1 in 893 | $203 | 0.7% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-tiger-tooth-minimal-wear) | 1 in 885 | $202 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-ocean-drive-minimal-wear) | 1 in 847 | $192 | 0.7% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| The Emperor (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-the-emperor-minimal-wear) | 1 in 826 | $187 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 800 | $181 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [AWP \| Wildfire (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-factory-new) | 1 in 763 | $173 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) | 1 in 730 | $165 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) | 1 in 690 | $156 | 0.7% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-field-tested) | 1 in 685 | $155 | 0.7% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-hyper-beast-field-tested) | 1 in 662 | $151 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-well-worn) | 1 in 637 | $145 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-hyper-beast-battle-scarred) | 1 in 633 | $144 | 0.7% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-hyper-beast-well-worn) | 1 in 633 | $143 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Wildfire (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-wildfire-minimal-wear) | 1 in 629 | $142 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Printstream (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-printstream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 621 | $140 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [P250 \| Apep's Curse (Factory New) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-apeps-curse-factory-new) | 1 in 610 | $139 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gold-toof-factory-new) | 1 in 552 | $125 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Wildfire (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-wildfire-well-worn) | 1 in 543 | $123 | 0.7% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-battle-scarred) | 1 in 505 | $114 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [USP-S \| Printstream (Factory New) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-printstream-factory-new) | 1 in 493 | $111 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Wildfire (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-wildfire-field-tested) | 1 in 478 | $108 | 0.7% | 1 | 0.7 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-ocean-drive-minimal-wear) | 1 in 461 | $104 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-ocean-drive-field-tested) | 1 in 441 | $99.67 | 0.7% | 2 | 0.8 | — |
| [Five-SeveN \| Angry Mob (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-angry-mob-factory-new) | 1 in 435 | $98.55 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Angry Mob (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-angry-mob-factory-new) | 1 in 435 | $98.35 | 0.7% | 2 | 0.8 | — |
| [StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Toybox (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-toybox-factory-new) | 1 in 417 | $94.46 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [StatTrak™ MP9 \| Hydra (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-hydra-factory-new) | 1 in 417 | $94.23 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Wildfire (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-wildfire-battle-scarred) | 1 in 412 | $93.56 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 376 | $85.22 | 0.7% | 1 | 0.9 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-gold-toof-minimal-wear) | 1 in 376 | $85.21 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [AWP \| Wildfire (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-minimal-wear) | 1 in 375 | $84.88 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-ocean-drive-field-tested) | 1 in 369 | $83.76 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [P250 \| Apep's Curse (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-apeps-curse-minimal-wear) | 1 in 369 | $83.51 | 0.7% | 2 | 0.9 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| The Emperor (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-the-emperor-field-tested) | 1 in 368 | $83.24 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [M4A4 \| The Emperor (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-minimal-wear) | 1 in 366 | $83.09 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Printstream (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-printstream-well-worn) | 1 in 364 | $82.24 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| The Emperor (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-the-emperor-well-worn) | 1 in 357 | $80.93 | 0.7% | 2 | 0.9 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-ocean-drive-well-worn) | 1 in 356 | $80.74 | 0.7% | 1 | 0.9 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-ocean-drive-well-worn) | 1 in 352 | $79.76 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [Five-SeveN \| Angry Mob (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-angry-mob-minimal-wear) | 1 in 350 | $79.28 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-ocean-drive-battle-scarred) | 1 in 350 | $79.14 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-ocean-drive-battle-scarred) | 1 in 347 | $78.61 | 0.7% | 0 | 1.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Printstream (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-printstream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 342 | $77.82 | 0.7% | 2 | 1.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Angry Mob (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-angry-mob-minimal-wear) | 1 in 331 | $75.23 | 0.7% | 1 | 1.0 | — |
| [Five-SeveN \| Angry Mob (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-angry-mob-well-worn) | 1 in 330 | $74.66 | 0.7% | 2 | 1.0 | 1.99× |
| [M4A4 \| The Emperor (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-well-worn) | 1 in 324 | $73.36 | 0.7% | 1 | 1.0 | 0.98× |
| [M4A4 \| The Emperor (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-battle-scarred) | 1 in 321 | $72.47 | 0.7% | 1 | 1.0 | 0.97× |
| [M4A4 \| The Emperor (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-field-tested) | 1 in 318 | $72.24 | 0.7% | 2 | 1.0 | 1.92× |
| [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Angry Mob (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-angry-mob-field-tested) | 1 in 313 | $71.09 | 0.7% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.95× |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-printstream-battle-scarred) | 1 in 313 | $71.02 | 0.7% | 2 | 1.1 | 1.89× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| The Emperor (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-the-emperor-battle-scarred) | 1 in 310 | $70.14 | 0.7% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Angry Mob (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-angry-mob-battle-scarred) | 1 in 304 | $68.81 | 0.7% | 2 | 1.1 | 1.84× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Angry Mob (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-angry-mob-battle-scarred) | 1 in 302 | $68.53 | 0.7% | 2 | 1.1 | 1.83× |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-gold-toof-well-worn) | 1 in 301 | $68.19 | 0.7% | 2 | 1.1 | 1.82× |
| [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Angry Mob (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-angry-mob-well-worn) | 1 in 296 | $66.88 | 0.7% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.89× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Angry Mob (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-angry-mob-field-tested) | 1 in 286 | $64.64 | 0.7% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Wildfire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-field-tested) | 1 in 243 | $55.00 | 0.7% | 1 | 1.4 | 0.73× |
| [AWP \| Wildfire (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-well-worn) | 1 in 231 | $52.46 | 0.7% | 1 | 1.4 | 0.70× |
| [MAC-10 \| Toybox (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-toybox-factory-new) | 1 in 230 | $52.27 | 0.7% | 1 | 1.4 | 0.70× |
| [MP9 \| Hydra (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hydra-factory-new) | 1 in 230 | $52.21 | 0.7% | 0 | 1.4 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-gold-toof-field-tested) | 1 in 225 | $51.03 | 0.7% | 1 | 1.5 | 0.68× |
| [P250 \| Apep's Curse (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-apeps-curse-field-tested) | 1 in 211 | $47.87 | 0.7% | 5 | 1.6 | 3.19× |
| [USP-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 207 | $46.92 | 0.7% | 0 | 1.6 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gold-toof-minimal-wear) | 1 in 205 | $46.44 | 0.7% | 0 | 1.6 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Printstream (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-printstream-well-worn) | 1 in 200 | $45.37 | 0.7% | 3 | 1.7 | 1.81× |
| [AWP \| Wildfire (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-battle-scarred) | 1 in 199 | $45.07 | 0.7% | 2 | 1.7 | 1.20× |
| [P250 \| Apep's Curse (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-apeps-curse-well-worn) | 1 in 198 | $44.93 | 0.7% | 0 | 1.7 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-gold-toof-battle-scarred) | 1 in 195 | $44.14 | 0.7% | 1 | 1.7 | 0.59× |
| [MAC-10 \| Toybox (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-toybox-minimal-wear) | 1 in 181 | $41.06 | 0.7% | 4 | 1.8 | 2.19× |
| [P250 \| Apep's Curse (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-apeps-curse-battle-scarred) | 1 in 179 | $40.54 | 0.7% | 1 | 1.9 | 0.54× |
| [USP-S \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-printstream-battle-scarred) | 1 in 177 | $40.03 | 0.7% | 1 | 1.9 | 0.53× |
| [Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gold-toof-well-worn) | 1 in 162 | $36.57 | 0.7% | 5 | 2.0 | 2.44× |
| [Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gold-toof-battle-scarred) | 1 in 159 | $36.04 | 0.7% | 4 | 2.1 | 1.92× |
| [StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Toybox (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-toybox-minimal-wear) | 1 in 158 | $35.93 | 0.7% | 2 | 2.1 | 0.96× |
| [Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gold-toof-field-tested) | 1 in 158 | $35.86 | 0.7% | 4 | 2.1 | 1.91× |
| [StatTrak™ MP7 \| Nemesis (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp7-nemesis-factory-new) | 1 in 66 | $31.15 | 1.5% | 4 | 5.0 | 0.80× |
| [StatTrak™ MP9 \| Hydra (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-hydra-minimal-wear) | 1 in 64 | $30.05 | 1.5% | 3 | 5.2 | 0.58× |
| [MP7 \| Nemesis (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-nemesis-factory-new) | 1 in 51 | $24.27 | 1.5% | 2 | 6.4 | 0.31× |
| [StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Toybox (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-toybox-field-tested) | 1 in 41 | $19.54 | 1.5% | 10 | 8.0 | 1.25× |
| [MAC-10 \| Toybox (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-toybox-field-tested) | 1 in 40 | $18.98 | 1.5% | 13 | 8.2 | 1.58× |
| [MAC-10 \| Toybox (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-toybox-battle-scarred) | 1 in 40 | $18.82 | 1.5% | 11 | 8.3 | 1.32× |
| [StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Toybox (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-toybox-well-worn) | 1 in 38 | $17.96 | 1.5% | 6 | 8.7 | 0.69× |
| [MAC-10 \| Toybox (Well-Worn) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-toybox-well-worn) | 1 in 38 | $17.85 | 1.5% | 5 | 8.8 | 0.57× |
| [StatTrak™ MP7 \| Nemesis (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp7-nemesis-minimal-wear) | 1 in 37 | $17.39 | 1.5% | 10 | 9.0 | 1.11× |
| [StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Toybox (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-toybox-battle-scarred) | 1 in 37 | $17.30 | 1.5% | 6 | 9.0 | 0.66× |
| [StatTrak™ MP7 \| Nemesis (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp7-nemesis-field-tested) | 1 in 34 | $16.23 | 1.5% | 7 | 9.6 | 0.73× |
| [MP9 \| Hydra (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hydra-minimal-wear) | 1 in 31 | $14.72 | 1.5% | 4 | 10.6 | 0.38× |
| [StatTrak™ MP9 \| Hydra (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-hydra-field-tested) | 1 in 30 | $14.21 | 1.5% | 14 | 11.0 | 1.27× |
| [StatTrak™ MP9 \| Hydra (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-hydra-well-worn) | 1 in 26 | $12.28 | 1.5% | 17 | 12.7 | 1.33× |
| [StatTrak™ MP9 \| Hydra (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-hydra-battle-scarred) | 1 in 22 | $10.45 | 1.5% | 20 | 15.0 | 1.34× |
| [MP7 \| Nemesis (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-nemesis-minimal-wear) | 1 in 18 | $8.65 | 1.5% | 16 | 18.1 | 0.88× |
| [MP7 \| Nemesis (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-nemesis-field-tested) | 1 in 18 | $8.54 | 1.5% | 24 | 18.3 | 1.31× |
| [MP9 \| Hydra (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hydra-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $6.34 | 1.5% | 34 | 24.7 | 1.38× |
| [MP9 \| Hydra (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hydra-well-worn) | 1 in 13 | $6.04 | 1.5% | 23 | 25.9 | 0.89× |
| [MP9 \| Hydra (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hydra-battle-scarred) | 1 in 12 | $5.84 | 1.5% | 24 | 26.8 | 0.90× |

Values are Hellcase's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hellcase:api/open/red-mandate`, 10 Nov, 21:40 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Emperor (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-the-emperor-factory-new) [★☜GoldenBurger☞★](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/%E2%98%85%E2%98%9CGoldenBurger%E2%98%9E%E2%98%85) $37.00 $530 14.32x 2026-11-03 18:28 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hellcase&case=red-mandate)

[M4A4 | The Emperor (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-field-tested) [★☜GoldenBurger☞★](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/%E2%98%85%E2%98%9CGoldenBurger%E2%98%9E%E2%98%85) $37.00 $72.24 1.95x 2026-11-10 20:18 UTC

[USP-S | Printstream (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-printstream-well-worn) [★☜GoldenBurger☞★](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/%E2%98%85%E2%98%9CGoldenBurger%E2%98%9E%E2%98%85) $37.00 $45.37 1.23x 2026-11-10 20:07 UTC

[MP9 | Hydra (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hydra-minimal-wear) [★☜GoldenBurger☞★](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/%E2%98%85%E2%98%9CGoldenBurger%E2%98%9E%E2%98%85) $37.00 $14.72 0.40x 2026-11-10 20:07 UTC

[MP9 | Hydra (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hydra-well-worn) [★☜GoldenBurger☞★](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/%E2%98%85%E2%98%9CGoldenBurger%E2%98%9E%E2%98%85) $37.00 $6.04 0.16x 2026-11-10 20:07 UTC

[StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Toybox (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-toybox-field-tested) [★☜GoldenBurger☞★](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/%E2%98%85%E2%98%9CGoldenBurger%E2%98%9E%E2%98%85) $37.00 $19.54 0.53x 2026-11-10 20:07 UTC

[MP9 | Hydra (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hydra-well-worn) [★☜GoldenBurger☞★](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/%E2%98%85%E2%98%9CGoldenBurger%E2%98%9E%E2%98%85) $37.00 $6.04 0.16x 2026-11-10 19:58 UTC

[StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Toybox (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-toybox-well-worn) [★☜GoldenBurger☞★](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/%E2%98%85%E2%98%9CGoldenBurger%E2%98%9E%E2%98%85) $37.00 $17.96 0.49x 2026-11-10 19:36 UTC

[MP9 | Hydra (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hydra-battle-scarred) [★☜GoldenBurger☞★](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/%E2%98%85%E2%98%9CGoldenBurger%E2%98%9E%E2%98%85) $37.00 $5.84 0.16x 2026-11-10 18:43 UTC

[StatTrak™ MP9 | Hydra (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-hydra-battle-scarred) [★☜GoldenBurger☞★](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/%E2%98%85%E2%98%9CGoldenBurger%E2%98%9E%E2%98%85) $37.00 $10.45 0.28x 2026-11-10 18:20 UTC

[StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Toybox (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-toybox-well-worn) [★☜GoldenBurger☞★](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/%E2%98%85%E2%98%9CGoldenBurger%E2%98%9E%E2%98%85) $37.00 $17.96 0.49x 2026-11-10 18:20 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 15:35 UTC | $37.00 | 88.01% | 122 |
| 10 Nov, 09:02 UTC | $37.00 | 88.05% | 122 |
| 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $37.00 | 87.99% | 122 |
| 8 Nov, 13:32 UTC | $37.00 | 87.99% | 122 |
| 7 Nov, 12:18 UTC | $37.00 | 87.97% | 122 |
| 6 Nov, 11:25 UTC | $37.00 | 87.99% | 122 |
| 5 Nov, 10:45 UTC | $37.00 | 88.00% | 122 |
| 4 Nov, 15:04 UTC | $37.00 | 87.96% | 122 |
| 4 Nov, 08:59 UTC | $37.00 | 88.02% | 122 |
| 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $37.00 | 88.01% | 122 |
| 2 Nov, 21:49 UTC | $37.00 | 88.01% | 122 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed classified 58.8% covert 13.1% covert knife 0.3% Covert 0.5% Ancient 1.3% Classified 3.1% rare 0.9% red 2.9% pink 11.2% #eb4b4b 0.5% #d32ce6 0.6% Legendary 1.6% #d32ee6 5.2% best hit $530 (14.32x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.01 on average: an expected loss of $11.99 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt