---
title: "Rivalry Unleashed case on Hellcase: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Rivalry Unleashed ($88.00) on Hellcase, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.00% from 67 items with odds, observed 137.56% over 12 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/rivalry-unleashed
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:17Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hellcase](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hellcase) / [Rivalry Unleashed](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/rivalry-unleashed)

# [Hellcase](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hellcase) · Rivalry Unleashed

A case on Hellcase (esports), first seen 11 Nov 2026. Every value is Hellcase's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/rivalry-unleashed?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/rivalry-unleashed?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/rivalry-unleashed) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/rivalry-unleashed?window=all)

Price · $88.00

Advertised RTP · 88.00% · EV $77.44 from 67 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 137.56% · 12 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.5× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 35.2% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 93.4% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 12 openings · below min

7 days · 12 openings · below min

30 days · 12 openings · below min

since tracking started · 12 openings · below min

66.5% 137.5% 208.5%

**Small sample.** 12 openings and 4.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/rivalry-unleashed?window=24h) | 12 | 137.56% ±70.4 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/rivalry-unleashed?window=7d) | 12 | 137.56% ±70.4 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/rivalry-unleashed) | 12 | 137.56% ±70.4 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/rivalry-unleashed?window=all) | 12 | 137.56% ±70.4 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 67 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 12 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 5,263 | $2,231 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 5,556 | $2,208 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 5,263 | $2,188 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 4,762 | $1,980 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear) | 1 in 4,762 | $1,959 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 4,348 | $1,811 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 3,571 | $1,474 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 3,448 | $1,432 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Slaughter (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 3,125 | $1,286 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 2,857 | $1,182 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-marble-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,500 | $1,021 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 2,381 | $977 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 2,326 | $956 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,273 | $950 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Blaze (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,174 | $887 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Slaughter (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-slaughter-field-tested) | 1 in 2,083 | $868 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,852 | $769 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Blue Phosphor (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blue-phosphor-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,818 | $744 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Blaze (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-factory-new) | 1 in 1,724 | $717 | 0.5% | 1 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Slaughter (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-slaughter-field-tested) | 1 in 1,754 | $714 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Marble Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 1,695 | $701 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-kill-confirmed-factory-new) | 1 in 1,695 | $701 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Blue Phosphor (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blue-phosphor-factory-new) | 1 in 1,587 | $657 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,250 | $518 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-skeleton-knife-crimson-web-well-worn) | 1 in 1,111 | $461 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 943 | $389 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-kill-confirmed-minimal-wear) | 1 in 917 | $378 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn) knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-crimson-web-well-worn) | 1 in 901 | $370 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Wildfire (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-wildfire-factory-new) | 1 in 870 | $358 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-crimson-web-battle-scarred) | 1 in 704 | $291 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-kill-confirmed-field-tested) | 1 in 690 | $284 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-factory-new) | 1 in 671 | $277 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Player Two (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-player-two-factory-new) | 1 in 658 | $273 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-kill-confirmed-well-worn) | 1 in 495 | $205 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Player Two (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-factory-new) | 1 in 452 | $187 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-kill-confirmed-battle-scarred) | 1 in 439 | $181 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Wildfire (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-factory-new) | 1 in 418 | $173 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Nightwish (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-nightwish-factory-new) | 1 in 405 | $167 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Wildfire (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-wildfire-minimal-wear) | 1 in 344 | $142 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-minimal-wear) | 1 in 315 | $130 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Nightwish (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish-factory-new) | 1 in 312 | $129 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Wildfire (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-wildfire-well-worn) | 1 in 299 | $123 | 0.5% | 1 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Player Two (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-player-two-minimal-wear) | 1 in 295 | $122 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Wildfire (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-wildfire-field-tested) | 1 in 260 | $107 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Wildfire (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-wildfire-battle-scarred) | 1 in 227 | $93.56 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Nightwish (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-nightwish-minimal-wear) | 1 in 224 | $92.48 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Nightwish (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish-minimal-wear) | 1 in 221 | $91.25 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AWP \| Wildfire (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-minimal-wear) | 1 in 205 | $84.88 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Nightwish (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-nightwish-field-tested) | 1 in 198 | $81.97 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Player Two (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-minimal-wear) | 1 in 198 | $81.65 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Player Two (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-player-two-well-worn) | 1 in 196 | $80.86 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-field-tested) | 1 in 196 | $80.75 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Nightwish (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-nightwish-well-worn) | 1 in 195 | $80.52 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Nightwish (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-nightwish-battle-scarred) | 1 in 192 | $79.32 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Player Two (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-player-two-field-tested) | 1 in 192 | $79.20 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Player Two (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-player-two-battle-scarred) | 1 in 17 | $77.23 | 5.9% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-well-worn) | 1 in 17 | $76.31 | 5.9% | 2 | 0.7 | — |
| [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-battle-scarred) | 1 in 16 | $73.27 | 5.9% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Player Two (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-field-tested) | 1 in 16 | $70.77 | 5.9% | 1 | 0.8 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Player Two (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-battle-scarred) | 1 in 15 | $67.25 | 5.9% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Nightwish (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $61.53 | 5.9% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Nightwish (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish-well-worn) | 1 in 13 | $60.82 | 5.9% | 2 | 0.9 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Nightwish (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish-battle-scarred) | 1 in 13 | $58.72 | 5.9% | 1 | 0.9 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Player Two (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-well-worn) | 1 in 12 | $55.35 | 5.9% | 1 | 1.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Wildfire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-field-tested) | 1 in 12 | $55.00 | 5.9% | 1 | 1.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Wildfire (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-well-worn) | 1 in 12 | $52.46 | 5.9% | 1 | 1.0 | 0.96× |
| [AWP \| Wildfire (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-battle-scarred) | 10.1% | $45.07 | 5.9% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.82× |

Values are Hellcase's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hellcase:api/open/rivalry-unleashed`, 11 Nov, 09:51 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-factory-new) [pisika](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/pisika) $88.00 $717 8.15x 2026-11-11 12:44 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hellcase&case=rivalry-unleashed)

[AK-47 | Nightwish (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish-battle-scarred) [pisika](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/pisika) $88.00 $58.72 0.67x 2026-11-11 12:45 UTC

[AK-47 | Nightwish (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish-well-worn) [pisika](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/pisika) $88.00 $60.82 0.69x 2026-11-11 12:45 UTC

[AK-47 | Nightwish (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish-well-worn) [pisika](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/pisika) $88.00 $60.82 0.69x 2026-11-11 12:44 UTC

[M4A1-S | Player Two (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-well-worn) [pisika](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/pisika) $88.00 $55.35 0.63x 2026-11-11 12:44 UTC

[USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-well-worn) [pisika](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/pisika) $88.00 $76.31 0.87x 2026-11-11 12:44 UTC

[StatTrak™ AWP | Wildfire (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-wildfire-well-worn) [pisika](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/pisika) $88.00 $123 1.40x 2026-11-11 12:44 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-factory-new) [pisika](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/pisika) $88.00 $717 8.15x 2026-11-11 12:44 UTC

[AWP | Wildfire (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-well-worn) [Purple](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/Purple) $88.00 $52.46 0.60x 2026-11-11 05:24 UTC

[M4A1-S | Player Two (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-field-tested) [Purple](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/Purple) $88.00 $70.77 0.80x 2026-11-11 05:20 UTC

[AWP | Wildfire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-field-tested) [Purple](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/Purple) $88.00 $55.00 0.63x 2026-11-11 05:08 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 09:51 UTC | $88.00 | 88.00% | 67 |
| 11 Nov, 03:46 UTC | $88.00 | 87.97% | 67 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed legendary 0.2% epic 0.1% covert 82.9% restricted 0.1% Covert 0.5% #EB4B4B 0.0% #ffd700 0.0% covert knife 0.1% classified 0.1% rare 0.1% Ancient 0.3% red 15.7% best hit $717 (8.15x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.00 on average: an expected loss of $12.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt