---
title: "Skeptical case on Hellcase: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Skeptical ($2.00) on Hellcase, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.93% from 176 items with odds, observed 97.33% over 535 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/skeptical
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:14Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hellcase](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hellcase) / [Skeptical](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/skeptical)

# [Hellcase](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hellcase) · Skeptical

A case on Hellcase (meme-factory), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Hellcase's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/skeptical?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/skeptical?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/skeptical) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/skeptical?window=all)

Price · $2.00

Advertised RTP · 87.93% · EV $1.76 from 176 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 97.33% · 535 openings, odds method

Variance · 3.7× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 12.9% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 88.1% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 76 openings · below min

7 days · 96.39% ±16.79 507 openings

30 days · 97.33% ±16.35 535 openings

since tracking started · 97.33% ±16.35 535 openings

55.5% 99.5% 143.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/skeptical?window=24h) | 76 | 99.51% ±43.4 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/skeptical?window=7d) | 507 | 96.39% ±16.8 | +1.0σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/skeptical) | 535 | 97.33% ±16.4 | +1.1σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/skeptical?window=all) | 535 | 97.33% ±16.4 | +1.1σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 176 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 650 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-frontside-misty-factory-new) | 1 in 25,000 | $181 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $133 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| 龍王 (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $113 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ P250 \| Asiimov (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-asiimov-minimal-wear) | 1 in 16,667 | $95.87 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Rat Rod (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-rat-rod-factory-new) | 1 in 14,286 | $85.27 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-frontside-misty-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14,286 | $84.60 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-big-iron-factory-new) | 1 in 12,500 | $80.27 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| 龍王 (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-minimal-wear) | 1 in 9,091 | $63.11 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A4 \| 龍王 (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-factory-new) | 1 in 9,091 | $60.68 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ P90 \| Shapewood (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-shapewood-factory-new) | 1 in 7,692 | $50.77 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Rat Rod (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-rat-rod-factory-new) | 1 in 7,692 | $50.30 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-big-iron-minimal-wear) | 1 in 7,692 | $49.54 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Steel Disruption (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-steel-disruption-factory-new) | 1 in 6,667 | $41.90 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| 龍王 (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-well-worn) | 1 in 6,667 | $41.83 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Dual Berettas \| Hemoglobin (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-dual-berettas-hemoglobin-factory-new) | 1 in 6,250 | $40.51 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-frontside-misty-field-tested) | 1 in 6,250 | $40.21 | 0.4% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-frontside-misty-well-worn) | 1 in 5,556 | $36.28 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-minimal-wear) | 1 in 5,263 | $35.43 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [P250 \| Asiimov (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-asiimov-minimal-wear) | 1 in 5,263 | $35.06 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-frontside-misty-battle-scarred) | 1 in 5,000 | $33.23 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Dual Berettas \| Hemoglobin (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-dual-berettas-hemoglobin-minimal-wear) | 1 in 4,762 | $31.09 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| 龍王 (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-field-tested) | 1 in 4,545 | $30.72 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [P90 \| Shapewood (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-shapewood-factory-new) | 1 in 4,762 | $30.43 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-big-iron-factory-new) | 1 in 4,545 | $30.26 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| 龍王 (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-battle-scarred) | 1 in 4,545 | $29.55 | 0.4% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A4 \| 龍王 (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-minimal-wear) | 1 in 4,545 | $29.16 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ P2000 \| Obsidian (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-obsidian-factory-new) | 1 in 4,348 | $28.17 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Dual Berettas \| Hemoglobin (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-dual-berettas-hemoglobin-field-tested) | 1 in 4,348 | $27.76 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-big-iron-field-tested) | 1 in 4,000 | $26.19 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-big-iron-well-worn) | 1 in 4,000 | $26.14 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-big-iron-battle-scarred) | 1 in 3,704 | $23.89 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Shinobu (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-shinobu-factory-new) | 1 in 3,333 | $21.74 | 0.4% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [M4A4 \| 龍王 (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-well-worn) | 1 in 3,226 | $20.85 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Rat Rod (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-rat-rod-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,125 | $19.98 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-field-tested) | 1 in 3,030 | $19.82 | 0.4% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Steel Disruption (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-steel-disruption-factory-new) | 1 in 2,857 | $18.70 | 0.4% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-well-worn) | 1 in 2,857 | $18.49 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [P2000 \| Obsidian (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-obsidian-factory-new) | 1 in 2,857 | $18.17 | 0.4% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-battle-scarred) | 1 in 2,778 | $18.10 | 0.4% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [Dual Berettas \| Hemoglobin (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-hemoglobin-factory-new) | 1 in 2,778 | $17.84 | 0.4% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Liquidation (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-liquidation-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,632 | $17.35 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [StatTrak™ P90 \| Shapewood (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-shapewood-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,703 | $17.34 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-big-iron-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,632 | $17.01 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [StatTrak™ P250 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 2,564 | $17.00 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [M4A4 \| 龍王 (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-field-tested) | 1 in 2,500 | $16.23 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [Dual Berettas \| Hemoglobin (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-hemoglobin-field-tested) | 1 in 2,439 | $15.95 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [Dual Berettas \| Hemoglobin (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-hemoglobin-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,381 | $15.74 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [M4A4 \| 龍王 (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-battle-scarred) | 1 in 2,273 | $15.08 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [P250 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 2,326 | $14.95 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AUG \| Arctic Wolf (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-aug-arctic-wolf-factory-new) | 1 in 2,273 | $14.71 | 0.4% | 2 | 0.3 | — |
| [StatTrak™ P250 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-asiimov-well-worn) | 1 in 2,273 | $14.66 | 0.4% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [P250 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-asiimov-well-worn) | 1 in 2,174 | $14.07 | 0.4% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Steel Disruption (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-steel-disruption-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,174 | $14.06 | 0.4% | 2 | 0.3 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Steel Disruption (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-steel-disruption-field-tested) | 1 in 2,174 | $14.03 | 0.4% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Guardian (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-guardian-factory-new) | 1 in 2,128 | $13.96 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [StatTrak™ P250 \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-asiimov-battle-scarred) | 1 in 2,128 | $13.91 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Solitude (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-solitude-factory-new) | 1 in 2,128 | $13.70 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [P250 \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-asiimov-battle-scarred) | 1 in 2,083 | $13.60 | 0.4% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [P90 \| Shapewood (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-shapewood-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,000 | $13.26 | 0.4% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Rat Rod (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-rat-rod-field-tested) | 1 in 1,923 | $12.56 | 0.4% | 3 | 0.3 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Liquidation (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-liquidation-factory-new) | 1 in 1,852 | $12.19 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Rat Rod (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-rat-rod-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,818 | $11.74 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Rat Rod (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-rat-rod-well-worn) | 1 in 1,754 | $11.54 | 0.4% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Steel Disruption (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-steel-disruption-field-tested) | 1 in 1,754 | $11.45 | 0.4% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| [AUG \| Arctic Wolf (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-arctic-wolf-factory-new) | 1 in 1,754 | $11.45 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [P90 \| Shapewood (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-shapewood-field-tested) | 1 in 1,754 | $11.39 | 0.4% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-big-iron-well-worn) | 1 in 1,724 | $11.27 | 0.4% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Steel Disruption (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-steel-disruption-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,724 | $11.24 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AUG \| Arctic Wolf (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-aug-arctic-wolf-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,724 | $11.22 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Darkwing (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-darkwing-factory-new) | 1 in 1,695 | $11.06 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [StatTrak™ P90 \| Shapewood (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-shapewood-field-tested) | 1 in 1,587 | $10.41 | 0.4% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| [StatTrak™ P2000 \| Obsidian (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-obsidian-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,587 | $10.29 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [StatTrak™ P90 \| Shapewood (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-shapewood-well-worn) | 1 in 1,587 | $10.21 | 0.4% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-big-iron-field-tested) | 1 in 1,562 | $10.11 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Shinobu (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-shinobu-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,538 | $10.07 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [StatTrak™ P90 \| Shapewood (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-shapewood-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,538 | $10.00 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [P90 \| Shapewood (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-shapewood-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,515 | $9.91 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-big-iron-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,515 | $9.87 | 0.4% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| [P90 \| Shapewood (Well-Worn) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-shapewood-well-worn) | 1 in 1,515 | $9.79 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AUG \| Aristocrat (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-aug-aristocrat-factory-new) | 1 in 1,316 | $8.56 | 0.4% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Liquidation (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-liquidation-field-tested) | 1 in 1,299 | $8.46 | 0.4% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| [Tec-9 \| Re-Entry (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-re-entry-factory-new) | 1 in 1,220 | $7.95 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Rat Rod (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-rat-rod-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,205 | $7.90 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Guardian (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-guardian-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,190 | $7.77 | 0.4% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Re-Entry (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-tec-9-re-entry-factory-new) | 1 in 1,149 | $7.52 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [StatTrak™ P2000 \| Obsidian (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-obsidian-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,136 | $7.41 | 0.4% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| [StatTrak™ P2000 \| Obsidian (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-obsidian-well-worn) | 1 in 1,124 | $7.31 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [StatTrak™ P2000 \| Obsidian (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-obsidian-field-tested) | 1 in 1,087 | $7.13 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Guardian (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-guardian-field-tested) | 1 in 990 | $6.44 | 0.4% | 2 | 0.7 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Liquidation (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-liquidation-minimal-wear) | 1 in 962 | $6.26 | 0.4% | 1 | 0.7 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Shinobu (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-shinobu-field-tested) | 1 in 943 | $6.12 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AUG \| Arctic Wolf (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-aug-arctic-wolf-well-worn) | 1 in 935 | $6.10 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Buddy (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-buddy-factory-new) | 1 in 926 | $6.01 | 0.4% | 1 | 0.7 | — |
| [USP-S \| Royal Guard (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-royal-guard-factory-new) | 1 in 917 | $5.95 | 0.4% | 2 | 0.7 | — |
| [USP-S \| Guardian (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-guardian-factory-new) | 1 in 909 | $5.90 | 0.4% | 2 | 0.7 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Shinobu (Well-Worn) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-shinobu-well-worn) | 1 in 813 | $5.31 | 0.4% | 1 | 0.8 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Solitude (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-solitude-minimal-wear) | 1 in 800 | $5.23 | 0.4% | 2 | 0.8 | — |
| [P2000 \| Obsidian (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-obsidian-minimal-wear) | 1 in 800 | $5.19 | 0.4% | 2 | 0.8 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Shinobu (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-shinobu-battle-scarred) | 1 in 794 | $5.17 | 0.4% | 1 | 0.8 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Liquidation (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-liquidation-well-worn) | 1 in 781 | $5.06 | 0.4% | 1 | 0.8 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AUG \| Arctic Wolf (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-aug-arctic-wolf-field-tested) | 1 in 763 | $4.99 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [SG 553 \| Darkwing (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-darkwing-factory-new) | 1 in 746 | $4.87 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [StatTrak™ P250 \| Nevermore (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-nevermore-factory-new) | 1 in 746 | $4.85 | 0.4% | 1 | 0.9 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Rat Rod (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-rat-rod-field-tested) | 1 in 741 | $4.81 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Rat Rod (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-rat-rod-battle-scarred) | 1 in 704 | $4.60 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [AUG \| Aristocrat (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-aristocrat-factory-new) | 1 in 704 | $4.58 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Rat Rod (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-rat-rod-well-worn) | 1 in 699 | $4.55 | 0.4% | 1 | 0.9 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AUG \| Aristocrat (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-aug-aristocrat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 685 | $4.47 | 0.4% | 1 | 0.9 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AUG \| Arctic Wolf (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-aug-arctic-wolf-battle-scarred) | 1 in 680 | $4.42 | 0.4% | 1 | 1.0 | — |
| [AUG \| Arctic Wolf (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-arctic-wolf-minimal-wear) | 1 in 654 | $4.25 | 0.4% | 1 | 1.0 | — |
| [Five-SeveN \| Buddy (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-buddy-factory-new) | 1 in 625 | $4.08 | 0.4% | 1 | 1.0 | 0.96× |
| [StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Arctic Wolf (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ump-45-arctic-wolf-factory-new) | 1 in 613 | $3.99 | 0.4% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.94× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Liquidation (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-liquidation-battle-scarred) | 1 in 610 | $3.98 | 0.4% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ P250 \| Nevermore (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-nevermore-well-worn) | 1 in 602 | $3.91 | 0.4% | 4 | 1.1 | 3.71× |
| [USP-S \| Guardian (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-guardian-minimal-wear) | 1 in 535 | $3.48 | 0.4% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Buddy (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-buddy-minimal-wear) | 1 in 513 | $3.34 | 0.4% | 1 | 1.3 | 0.79× |
| [USP-S \| Guardian (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-guardian-field-tested) | 1 in 485 | $3.16 | 0.4% | 0 | 1.3 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Royal Guard (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-royal-guard-minimal-wear) | 1 in 483 | $3.15 | 0.4% | 0 | 1.3 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Darkwing (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-darkwing-minimal-wear) | 1 in 476 | $3.10 | 0.4% | 1 | 1.4 | 0.73× |
| [StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Re-Entry (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-tec-9-re-entry-minimal-wear) | 1 in 474 | $3.08 | 0.4% | 1 | 1.4 | 0.73× |
| [StatTrak™ P250 \| Nevermore (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-nevermore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 439 | $2.86 | 0.4% | 2 | 1.5 | 1.35× |
| [M4A1-S \| Liquidation (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-liquidation-field-tested) | 1 in 437 | $2.84 | 0.4% | 1 | 1.5 | 0.67× |
| [AUG \| Arctic Wolf (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-arctic-wolf-well-worn) | 1 in 408 | $2.66 | 0.4% | 2 | 1.6 | 1.26× |
| [StatTrak™ AUG \| Aristocrat (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-aug-aristocrat-well-worn) | 1 in 377 | $2.46 | 0.4% | 2 | 1.7 | 1.16× |
| [P2000 \| Obsidian (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-obsidian-field-tested) | 1 in 351 | $2.29 | 0.4% | 1 | 1.9 | 0.54× |
| [P250 \| Nevermore (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-nevermore-factory-new) | 1 in 351 | $2.29 | 0.4% | 3 | 1.9 | 1.62× |
| [P2000 \| Obsidian (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-obsidian-well-worn) | 1 in 336 | $2.19 | 0.4% | 1 | 1.9 | 0.52× |
| [UMP-45 \| Arctic Wolf (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-arctic-wolf-factory-new) | 1 in 334 | $2.18 | 0.4% | 2 | 1.9 | 1.03× |
| [AUG \| Arctic Wolf (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-arctic-wolf-field-tested) | 1 in 332 | $2.16 | 0.4% | 1 | 2.0 | 0.51× |
| [AUG \| Aristocrat (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-aristocrat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 330 | $2.15 | 0.4% | 0 | 2.0 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ AUG \| Aristocrat (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-aug-aristocrat-field-tested) | 1 in 323 | $2.10 | 0.4% | 2 | 2.0 | 0.99× |
| [StatTrak™ P250 \| Nevermore (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-nevermore-field-tested) | 1 in 317 | $2.07 | 0.4% | 2 | 2.0 | 0.98× |
| [M4A1-S \| Solitude (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-solitude-field-tested) | 1 in 314 | $2.05 | 0.4% | 0 | 2.1 | 0.00× |
| [AUG \| Arctic Wolf (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-arctic-wolf-battle-scarred) | 1 in 304 | $1.98 | 0.4% | 1 | 2.1 | 0.47× |
| [StatTrak™ AUG \| Aristocrat (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-aug-aristocrat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 303 | $1.97 | 0.4% | 2 | 2.1 | 0.93× |
| [P2000 \| Obsidian (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-obsidian-battle-scarred) | 1 in 299 | $1.94 | 0.4% | 1 | 2.2 | 0.46× |
| [M4A1-S \| Solitude (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-solitude-well-worn) | 1 in 291 | $1.89 | 0.4% | 1 | 2.2 | 0.45× |
| [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Buddy (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-buddy-well-worn) | 1 in 287 | $1.87 | 0.4% | 3 | 2.3 | 1.33× |
| [M4A1-S \| Liquidation (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-liquidation-well-worn) | 1 in 286 | $1.86 | 0.4% | 4 | 2.3 | 1.76× |
| [Tec-9 \| Re-Entry (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-re-entry-minimal-wear) | 1 in 284 | $1.85 | 0.4% | 2 | 2.3 | 0.87× |
| [SG 553 \| Darkwing (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-darkwing-minimal-wear) | 1 in 73 | $1.71 | 1.3% | 7 | 9.0 | 0.78× |
| [AUG \| Aristocrat (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-aristocrat-well-worn) | 1 in 68 | $1.60 | 1.3% | 10 | 9.6 | 1.04× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Buddy (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-buddy-minimal-wear) | 1 in 68 | $1.60 | 1.3% | 8 | 9.6 | 0.84× |
| [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Buddy (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-buddy-field-tested) | 1 in 66 | $1.56 | 1.3% | 6 | 9.8 | 0.61× |
| [M4A1-S \| Solitude (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-solitude-battle-scarred) | 1 in 66 | $1.55 | 1.3% | 11 | 9.9 | 1.11× |
| [Tec-9 \| Re-Entry (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-re-entry-well-worn) | 1 in 66 | $1.55 | 1.3% | 14 | 9.9 | 1.42× |
| [StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Re-Entry (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-tec-9-re-entry-field-tested) | 1 in 66 | $1.55 | 1.3% | 12 | 9.9 | 1.21× |
| [AUG \| Aristocrat (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-aristocrat-field-tested) | 1 in 66 | $1.55 | 1.3% | 11 | 9.9 | 1.11× |
| [Tec-9 \| Re-Entry (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-re-entry-field-tested) | 1 in 65 | $1.53 | 1.3% | 4 | 10.0 | 0.40× |
| [StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Arctic Wolf (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ump-45-arctic-wolf-minimal-wear) | 1 in 64 | $1.52 | 1.3% | 14 | 10.1 | 1.39× |
| [AUG \| Aristocrat (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-aristocrat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 64 | $1.50 | 1.3% | 12 | 10.2 | 1.18× |
| [StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Re-Entry (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-tec-9-re-entry-well-worn) | 1 in 62 | $1.46 | 1.3% | 16 | 10.5 | 1.53× |
| [P250 \| Nevermore (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-nevermore-well-worn) | 1 in 62 | $1.46 | 1.3% | 9 | 10.5 | 0.86× |
| [P250 \| Nevermore (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-nevermore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 58 | $1.36 | 1.3% | 3 | 11.3 | 0.27× |
| [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Buddy (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-buddy-battle-scarred) | 1 in 56 | $1.33 | 1.3% | 7 | 11.5 | 0.61× |
| [StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Darkwing (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-darkwing-field-tested) | 1 in 51 | $1.21 | 1.3% | 20 | 12.7 | 1.58× |
| [M4A1-S \| Liquidation (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-liquidation-battle-scarred) | 1 in 51 | $1.20 | 1.3% | 11 | 12.8 | 0.86× |
| [P250 \| Nevermore (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-nevermore-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $1.17 | 1.3% | 23 | 13.1 | 1.76× |
| [UMP-45 \| Arctic Wolf (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-arctic-wolf-minimal-wear) | 1 in 46 | $1.09 | 1.3% | 9 | 14.1 | 0.64× |
| [StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Darkwing (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-darkwing-well-worn) | 1 in 44 | $1.04 | 1.3% | 11 | 14.7 | 0.75× |
| [StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Darkwing (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-darkwing-battle-scarred) | 1 in 43 | $1.02 | 1.3% | 14 | 15.0 | 0.93× |
| [StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Arctic Wolf (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ump-45-arctic-wolf-field-tested) | 1 in 39 | $0.91 | 1.3% | 20 | 16.8 | 1.19× |
| [StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Arctic Wolf (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · #8847FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ump-45-arctic-wolf-well-worn) | 1 in 38 | $0.90 | 1.3% | 11 | 17.0 | 0.65× |
| [SG 553 \| Darkwing (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-darkwing-field-tested) | 1 in 38 | $0.89 | 1.3% | 14 | 17.2 | 0.81× |
| [SG 553 \| Darkwing (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-darkwing-well-worn) | 1 in 34 | $0.80 | 1.3% | 16 | 19.1 | 0.84× |
| [SG 553 \| Darkwing (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-darkwing-battle-scarred) | 1 in 34 | $0.79 | 1.3% | 22 | 19.4 | 1.13× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Buddy (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-buddy-well-worn) | 1 in 34 | $0.79 | 1.3% | 13 | 19.4 | 0.67× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Buddy (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-buddy-battle-scarred) | 1 in 33 | $0.78 | 1.3% | 21 | 19.6 | 1.07× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Buddy (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-buddy-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $0.77 | 1.3% | 18 | 19.9 | 0.90× |
| [USP-S \| Royal Guard (Field-Tested) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-royal-guard-field-tested) | 1 in 32 | $0.76 | 1.3% | 21 | 20.2 | 1.04× |
| [StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Arctic Wolf (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ump-45-arctic-wolf-battle-scarred) | 1 in 32 | $0.76 | 1.3% | 26 | 20.2 | 1.29× |
| [USP-S \| Royal Guard (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-royal-guard-well-worn) | 1 in 30 | $0.71 | 1.3% | 28 | 21.6 | 1.30× |
| [USP-S \| Royal Guard (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-royal-guard-battle-scarred) | 1 in 28 | $0.65 | 1.3% | 22 | 23.6 | 0.93× |
| [UMP-45 \| Arctic Wolf (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-arctic-wolf-well-worn) | 1 in 23 | $0.54 | 1.3% | 21 | 28.4 | 0.74× |
| [UMP-45 \| Arctic Wolf (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-arctic-wolf-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $0.53 | 1.3% | 37 | 28.9 | 1.28× |
| [UMP-45 \| Arctic Wolf (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-arctic-wolf-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20 | $0.48 | 1.3% | 35 | 31.9 | 1.10× |

Values are Hellcase's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hellcase:api/open/skeptical`, 11 Nov, 09:51 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hellcase&case=skeptical)

[StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Re-Entry (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-tec-9-re-entry-well-worn) [HUSEYİNİMS](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/HUSEY%C4%B0N%C4%B0MS) $2.00 $1.46 0.73x 2026-11-11 12:50 UTC

[StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Arctic Wolf (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ump-45-arctic-wolf-minimal-wear) [HUSEYİNİMS](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/HUSEY%C4%B0N%C4%B0MS) $2.00 $1.52 0.76x 2026-11-11 12:50 UTC

[StatTrak™ SG 553 | Darkwing (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-darkwing-field-tested) [HUSEYİNİMS](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/HUSEY%C4%B0N%C4%B0MS) $2.00 $1.21 0.61x 2026-11-11 12:50 UTC

[AK-47 | Frontside Misty (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-field-tested) [HUSEYİNİMS](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/HUSEY%C4%B0N%C4%B0MS) $2.00 $19.82 9.91x 2026-11-11 12:49 UTC

[StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Re-Entry (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-tec-9-re-entry-field-tested) [HUSEYİNİMS](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/HUSEY%C4%B0N%C4%B0MS) $2.00 $1.55 0.78x 2026-11-11 12:49 UTC

[UMP-45 | Arctic Wolf (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-arctic-wolf-battle-scarred) [k1ss3d\_](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/k1ss3d_) $2.00 $0.48 0.24x 2026-11-11 12:24 UTC

[USP-S | Royal Guard (Field-Tested) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-royal-guard-field-tested) [Jerry](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/Jerry) $2.00 $0.76 0.38x 2026-11-11 11:07 UTC

[UMP-45 | Arctic Wolf (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-arctic-wolf-minimal-wear) [Jerry](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/Jerry) $2.00 $1.09 0.55x 2026-11-11 11:06 UTC

[StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Arctic Wolf (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ump-45-arctic-wolf-field-tested) [Jerry](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/Jerry) $2.00 $0.91 0.46x 2026-11-11 11:04 UTC

[UMP-45 | Arctic Wolf (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-arctic-wolf-battle-scarred) [Jerry](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/Jerry) $2.00 $0.48 0.24x 2026-11-11 11:04 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 09:51 UTC | $2.00 | 87.93% | 176 |
| 10 Nov, 09:02 UTC | $2.00 | 88.05% | 176 |
| 9 Nov, 20:18 UTC | $2.00 | 87.94% | 176 |
| 8 Nov, 13:32 UTC | $2.00 | 87.99% | 176 |
| 7 Nov, 12:18 UTC | $2.00 | 88.04% | 176 |
| 6 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $2.00 | 88.03% | 176 |
| 5 Nov, 10:45 UTC | $2.00 | 88.04% | 176 |
| 4 Nov, 08:59 UTC | $2.00 | 87.93% | 176 |
| 4 Nov, 04:57 UTC | $2.00 | 88.09% | 176 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed classified 1.0% Legendary 0.2% restricted 54.9% pink 1.3% Classified 0.0% #d32ce6 1.5% rare 0.0% uncommon 3.3% Restricted 0.4% Mythical 5.6% #d32ee6 0.1% violet 22.3% #8847ff 6.6% #8847FF 2.6% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.93 on average: an expected loss of $12.07 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt