---
title: "Skirmish case on Hellcase: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Skirmish ($6.34) on Hellcase, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.98% from 115 items with odds, observed 91.09% over 9,491 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/skirmish
rendered: 2026-11-11T12:47Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hellcase](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hellcase) / [Skirmish](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/skirmish)

# [Hellcase](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hellcase) · Skirmish

A case on Hellcase (discounts), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Hellcase's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/skirmish?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/skirmish?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/skirmish) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/skirmish?window=all)

Price · $6.34

Advertised RTP · 87.98% · EV $5.58 from 115 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 91.09% · 9,491 openings, odds method

Variance · 5.9× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 13 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 88.4% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 103.02% ±18.89 618 openings

7 days · 91.78% ±4.92 9,040 openings

30 days · 91.09% ±4.79 9,491 openings

since tracking started · 91.09% ±4.79 9,491 openings

83.5% 103.0% 122.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/skirmish?window=24h) | 618 | 103.02% ±18.9 | +1.7σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/skirmish?window=7d) | 9,040 | 91.78% ±4.92 | +1.5σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/skirmish) | 9,491 | 91.09% ±4.79 | +1.3σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/skirmish?window=all) | 9,491 | 91.09% ±4.79 | +1.3σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 115 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 9,746 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AK-47 \| The Empress (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-factory-new) | 1 in 12,500 | $360 | 0.5% | 1 | 0.8 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Vulcan (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-vulcan-well-worn) | 1 in 12,500 | $352 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $297 | 0.5% | 1 | 1.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-golden-coil-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $276 | 0.5% | 2 | 1.0 | — |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Blue Steel (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-blue-steel-well-worn) | 1 in 9,091 | $260 | 0.5% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× |
| [SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dragonfire-field-tested) | 1 in 9,091 | $252 | 0.5% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-blue-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 9,091 | $251 | 0.5% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.93× |
| [SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dragonfire-battle-scarred) | 1 in 8,333 | $242 | 0.5% | 2 | 1.2 | 1.71× |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Blue Steel (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-blue-steel-battle-scarred) | 1 in 8,333 | $234 | 0.5% | 2 | 1.2 | 1.71× |
| [AK-47 \| Vulcan (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-field-tested) | 1 in 8,333 | $228 | 0.5% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.86× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Vulcan (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-vulcan-battle-scarred) | 1 in 7,692 | $221 | 0.5% | 1 | 1.3 | 0.79× |
| [AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fuel-injector-minimal-wear) | 1 in 7,143 | $196 | 0.5% | 2 | 1.4 | 1.47× |
| [StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-neon-rider-factory-new) | 1 in 6,667 | $193 | 0.5% | 0 | 1.5 | 0.00× |
| [MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-neon-rider-factory-new) | 1 in 5,882 | $175 | 0.5% | 2 | 1.7 | 1.21× |
| [StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-neon-rider-minimal-wear) | 1 in 6,250 | $174 | 0.5% | 1 | 1.6 | 0.64× |
| [AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fuel-injector-field-tested) | 1 in 5,882 | $171 | 0.5% | 2 | 1.7 | 1.21× |
| [M4A4 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 5,882 | $168 | 0.5% | 3 | 1.7 | 1.81× |
| [AK-47 \| Vulcan (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-well-worn) | 1 in 5,882 | $167 | 0.5% | 2 | 1.7 | 1.21× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-golden-coil-field-tested) | 1 in 5,556 | $164 | 0.5% | 3 | 1.8 | 1.71× |
| [StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-neon-rider-field-tested) | 1 in 5,556 | $158 | 0.5% | 1 | 1.8 | 0.57× |
| [M4A4 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-asiimov-well-worn) | 1 in 5,263 | $155 | 0.5% | 1 | 1.9 | 0.54× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| The Empress (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-the-empress-field-tested) | 1 in 5,000 | $143 | 0.5% | 2 | 1.9 | 1.03× |
| [StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-neon-rider-well-worn) | 1 in 5,000 | $143 | 0.5% | 1 | 1.9 | 0.51× |
| [AK-47 \| The Empress (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-minimal-wear) | 1 in 4,762 | $139 | 0.5% | 4 | 2.0 | 1.95× |
| [AK-47 \| The Empress (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-field-tested) | 1 in 4,545 | $129 | 0.5% | 4 | 2.1 | 1.87× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| The Empress (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-the-empress-well-worn) | 1 in 4,348 | $126 | 0.5% | 3 | 2.2 | 1.34× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| The Empress (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-the-empress-battle-scarred) | 1 in 4,348 | $125 | 0.5% | 4 | 2.2 | 1.78× |
| [AK-47 \| The Empress (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-well-worn) | 1 in 4,167 | $123 | 0.5% | 6 | 2.3 | 2.57× |
| [AK-47 \| The Empress (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-battle-scarred) | 1 in 4,348 | $122 | 0.5% | 0 | 2.2 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-golden-coil-well-worn) | 1 in 4,348 | $121 | 0.5% | 1 | 2.2 | 0.45× |
| [AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fuel-injector-well-worn) | 1 in 4,167 | $121 | 0.5% | 4 | 2.3 | 1.71× |
| [AK-47 \| Vulcan (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-battle-scarred) | 1 in 4,000 | $118 | 0.5% | 2 | 2.4 | 0.82× |
| [AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fuel-injector-battle-scarred) | 1 in 4,167 | $116 | 0.5% | 2 | 2.3 | 0.86× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-golden-coil-battle-scarred) | 1 in 4,000 | $114 | 0.5% | 0 | 2.4 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,846 | $113 | 0.5% | 3 | 2.5 | 1.18× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Scorched (Well-Worn) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-gut-knife-scorched-well-worn) | 1 in 3,571 | $100 | 0.5% | 5 | 2.7 | 1.83× |
| [M4A4 \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-asiimov-battle-scarred) | 1 in 3,448 | $97.94 | 0.5% | 2 | 2.8 | 0.71× |
| [StatTrak™ P250 \| Asiimov (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-asiimov-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,333 | $95.87 | 0.5% | 1 | 2.9 | 0.34× |
| [StatTrak™ MP9 \| Hydra (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-hydra-factory-new) | 1 in 3,333 | $94.23 | 0.5% | 2 | 2.9 | 0.68× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Scorched (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-gut-knife-scorched-battle-scarred) | 1 in 3,226 | $93.87 | 0.5% | 4 | 3.0 | 1.32× |
| [StatTrak™ Nova \| Hyper Beast (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nova-hyper-beast-factory-new) | 1 in 3,226 | $93.24 | 0.5% | 6 | 3.0 | 1.99× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Decimator (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-decimator-factory-new) | 1 in 3,226 | $92.79 | 0.5% | 3 | 3.0 | 0.99× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Scorched (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-gut-knife-scorched-field-tested) | 1 in 2,857 | $82.26 | 0.5% | 2 | 3.4 | 0.59× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Scorched (Minimal Wear) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-scorched-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,857 | $81.13 | 0.5% | 2 | 3.4 | 0.59× |
| [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-field-tested) | 1 in 2,778 | $80.54 | 0.5% | 2 | 3.5 | 0.57× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Survival Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Well-Worn) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-survival-knife-forest-ddpat-well-worn) | 1 in 2,439 | $71.42 | 0.5% | 2 | 4.0 | 0.50× |
| [StatTrak™ Dual Berettas \| Marina (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-dual-berettas-marina-factory-new) | 1 in 2,439 | $69.49 | 0.5% | 3 | 4.0 | 0.75× |
| [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-well-worn) | 1 in 2,381 | $67.65 | 0.5% | 4 | 4.1 | 0.98× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-rust-coat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 2,273 | $65.51 | 0.5% | 5 | 4.3 | 1.17× |
| [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-battle-scarred) | 1 in 2,174 | $61.33 | 0.5% | 3 | 4.5 | 0.67× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Scorched (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-scorched-field-tested) | 1 in 2,083 | $60.04 | 0.5% | 4 | 4.7 | 0.86× |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-forest-ddpat-field-tested) | 1 in 2,041 | $59.13 | 0.5% | 4 | 4.8 | 0.84× |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Battle-Scarred) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-forest-ddpat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 2,083 | $59.00 | 0.5% | 4 | 4.7 | 0.86× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Scorched (Well-Worn) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-scorched-well-worn) | 1 in 2,041 | $58.68 | 0.5% | 9 | 4.8 | 1.88× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Scorched (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-scorched-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,923 | $55.64 | 0.5% | 7 | 5.1 | 1.38× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Decimator (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-decimator-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,887 | $54.13 | 0.5% | 8 | 5.2 | 1.55× |
| [MP9 \| Hydra (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hydra-factory-new) | 1 in 1,818 | $52.21 | 0.5% | 5 | 5.4 | 0.93× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Rust Coat (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-rust-coat-well-worn) | 1 in 1,786 | $51.00 | 0.5% | 6 | 5.5 | 1.10× |
| [StatTrak™ Nova \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nova-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,724 | $49.13 | 0.5% | 5 | 5.7 | 0.88× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-rust-coat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,695 | $48.38 | 0.5% | 4 | 5.8 | 0.70× |
| [Glock-18 \| Nuclear Garden (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-nuclear-garden-factory-new) | 1 in 1,667 | $47.97 | 0.5% | 6 | 5.8 | 1.03× |
| [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-factory-new) | 1 in 1,639 | $46.93 | 0.5% | 8 | 5.9 | 1.35× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Decimator (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-decimator-well-worn) | 1 in 1,250 | $35.78 | 0.5% | 8 | 7.8 | 1.03× |
| [P250 \| Asiimov (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-asiimov-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,220 | $35.06 | 0.5% | 6 | 8.0 | 0.75× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Decimator (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-decimator-field-tested) | 1 in 1,176 | $33.45 | 0.5% | 5 | 8.3 | 0.60× |
| [StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Curse (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-curse-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,149 | $32.93 | 0.5% | 8 | 8.5 | 0.94× |
| [StatTrak™ Nova \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nova-hyper-beast-field-tested) | 1 in 1,087 | $31.33 | 0.5% | 8 | 9.0 | 0.89× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Decimator (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-decimator-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,064 | $30.61 | 0.5% | 13 | 9.2 | 1.42× |
| [StatTrak™ MP9 \| Hydra (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-hydra-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,042 | $30.05 | 0.5% | 10 | 9.4 | 1.07× |
| [Nova \| Hyper Beast (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-hyper-beast-factory-new) | 1 in 1,042 | $29.86 | 0.5% | 6 | 9.4 | 0.64× |
| [StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Curse (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-curse-factory-new) | 1 in 1,042 | $29.67 | 0.5% | 4 | 9.4 | 0.43× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Marina (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-marina-factory-new) | 1 in 1,031 | $29.44 | 0.5% | 10 | 9.5 | 1.06× |
| [StatTrak™ Nova \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nova-hyper-beast-well-worn) | 1 in 980 | $28.11 | 0.5% | 8 | 9.9 | 0.80× |
| [StatTrak™ Nova \| Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nova-hyper-beast-battle-scarred) | 1 in 962 | $27.55 | 0.5% | 8 | 10.1 | 0.79× |
| [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-minimal-wear) | 1 in 826 | $23.60 | 0.5% | 18 | 11.8 | 1.53× |
| [Nova \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) | 1 in 676 | $19.41 | 0.5% | 15 | 14.4 | 1.04× |
| [StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Curse (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-curse-well-worn) | 1 in 637 | $18.23 | 0.5% | 15 | 15.3 | 0.98× |
| [MAC-10 \| Curse (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-curse-battle-scarred) | 1 in 599 | $17.16 | 0.5% | 22 | 16.3 | 1.35× |
| [StatTrak™ P250 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 592 | $17.00 | 0.5% | 13 | 16.5 | 0.79× |
| [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-field-tested) | 1 in 549 | $15.80 | 0.5% | 12 | 17.7 | 0.68× |
| [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-well-worn) | 1 in 549 | $15.74 | 0.5% | 19 | 17.7 | 1.07× |
| [P250 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 524 | $14.95 | 0.5% | 25 | 18.6 | 1.34× |
| [MP9 \| Hydra (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hydra-minimal-wear) | 1 in 513 | $14.72 | 0.5% | 21 | 19.0 | 1.10× |
| [StatTrak™ Dual Berettas \| Marina (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-dual-berettas-marina-minimal-wear) | 1 in 513 | $14.69 | 0.5% | 15 | 19.0 | 0.79× |
| [StatTrak™ P250 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-asiimov-well-worn) | 1 in 513 | $14.66 | 0.5% | 15 | 19.0 | 0.79× |
| [StatTrak™ MP9 \| Hydra (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-hydra-field-tested) | 1 in 498 | $14.21 | 0.5% | 17 | 19.6 | 0.87× |
| [P250 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-asiimov-well-worn) | 1 in 490 | $14.07 | 0.5% | 23 | 19.9 | 1.16× |
| [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-battle-scarred) | 1 in 490 | $14.02 | 0.5% | 22 | 19.9 | 1.11× |
| [Nova \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-hyper-beast-field-tested) | 1 in 490 | $14.02 | 0.5% | 22 | 19.9 | 1.11× |
| [StatTrak™ P250 \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-asiimov-battle-scarred) | 1 in 488 | $13.97 | 0.5% | 25 | 20.0 | 1.25× |
| [MAC-10 \| Curse (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-curse-factory-new) | 1 in 476 | $13.62 | 0.5% | 16 | 20.5 | 0.78× |
| [P250 \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-asiimov-battle-scarred) | 1 in 476 | $13.60 | 0.5% | 19 | 20.5 | 0.93× |
| [Nova \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-hyper-beast-well-worn) | 1 in 467 | $13.38 | 0.5% | 18 | 20.9 | 0.86× |
| [StatTrak™ MP9 \| Hydra (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-hydra-well-worn) | 1 in 427 | $12.28 | 0.5% | 14 | 22.8 | 0.61× |
| [StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Curse (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-curse-field-tested) | 1 in 426 | $12.16 | 0.5% | 25 | 22.9 | 1.09× |
| [StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Curse (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · SMGs](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-curse-minimal-wear) | 1 in 407 | $11.66 | 0.5% | 23 | 24.0 | 0.96× |
| [Nova \| Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-hyper-beast-battle-scarred) | 1 in 402 | $11.49 | 0.5% | 20 | 24.3 | 0.82× |
| [MAC-10 \| Curse (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-curse-well-worn) | 1 in 392 | $11.23 | 0.5% | 33 | 24.9 | 1.33× |
| [StatTrak™ Dual Berettas \| Marina (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-dual-berettas-marina-battle-scarred) | 1 in 368 | $10.55 | 0.5% | 16 | 26.5 | 0.60× |
| [StatTrak™ MP9 \| Hydra (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-hydra-battle-scarred) | 1 in 365 | $10.45 | 0.5% | 30 | 26.7 | 1.12× |
| [StatTrak™ Dual Berettas \| Marina (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-dual-berettas-marina-field-tested) | 1 in 351 | $10.05 | 0.5% | 32 | 27.8 | 1.15× |
| [StatTrak™ Dual Berettas \| Marina (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-dual-berettas-marina-well-worn) | 1 in 316 | $9.05 | 0.5% | 21 | 30.8 | 0.68× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Marina (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-marina-battle-scarred) | 1 in 291 | $8.33 | 0.5% | 22 | 33.5 | 0.66× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Marina (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-marina-well-worn) | 1 in 261 | $7.48 | 0.5% | 39 | 37.3 | 1.04× |
| [MAC-10 \| Curse (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-curse-minimal-wear) | 1 in 260 | $7.44 | 0.5% | 37 | 37.5 | 0.99× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Marina (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-marina-minimal-wear) | 1 in 259 | $7.42 | 0.5% | 31 | 37.6 | 0.82× |
| [MAC-10 \| Curse (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-curse-field-tested) | 1 in 244 | $7.00 | 0.5% | 38 | 40.0 | 0.95× |
| [Glock-18 \| Nuclear Garden (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-nuclear-garden-minimal-wear) | 1 in 236 | $6.77 | 0.5% | 33 | 41.2 | 0.80× |
| [MP9 \| Hydra (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hydra-field-tested) | 1 in 221 | $6.34 | 0.5% | 45 | 44.1 | 1.02× |
| [MP9 \| Hydra (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hydra-well-worn) | 1 in 211 | $6.04 | 0.5% | 47 | 46.2 | 1.02× |
| [MP9 \| Hydra (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hydra-battle-scarred) | 1 in 204 | $5.84 | 0.5% | 450 | 47.8 | 9.42× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Marina (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-marina-field-tested) | 11.3% | $5.30 | 10.8% | 1,044 | 1103.1 | 0.95× |
| [Glock-18 \| Nuclear Garden (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-nuclear-garden-well-worn) | 23.8% | $2.52 | 10.8% | 2,201 | 2320.1 | 0.95× |
| [Glock-18 \| Nuclear Garden (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-nuclear-garden-field-tested) | 24.8% | $2.42 | 10.8% | 2,316 | 2416.0 | 0.96× |
| [Glock-18 \| Nuclear Garden (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-nuclear-garden-battle-scarred) | 27.5% | $2.18 | 10.8% | 2,603 | 2682.1 | 0.97× |

Values are Hellcase's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hellcase:api/open/skirmish`, 10 Nov, 15:35 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[AK-47 | The Empress (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-factory-new) [ツnYx666ツ](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/%E3%83%84nYx666%E3%83%84) $6.34 $360 56.85x 2026-11-08 23:01 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hellcase&case=skirmish)

[Glock-18 | Nuclear Garden (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-nuclear-garden-battle-scarred) [User](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/User) $7.20 $2.18 0.30x 2026-11-11 12:41 UTC

[MP9 | Hydra (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hydra-battle-scarred) [Eh... What's Up Doc?](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/Eh...%20What%26apos%3Bs%20Up%20Doc%3F) $7.20 $5.84 0.81x 2026-11-11 12:41 UTC

[Glock-18 | Nuclear Garden (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-nuclear-garden-well-worn) [User](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/User) $7.20 $2.52 0.35x 2026-11-11 12:39 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Marina (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-marina-field-tested) [User](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/User) $7.20 $5.30 0.74x 2026-11-11 12:39 UTC

[Glock-18 | Nuclear Garden (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-nuclear-garden-well-worn) [User](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/User) $7.20 $2.52 0.35x 2026-11-11 12:39 UTC

[MP9 | Hydra (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hydra-well-worn) [User](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/User) $7.20 $6.04 0.84x 2026-11-11 12:38 UTC

[Glock-18 | Nuclear Garden (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-nuclear-garden-battle-scarred) [User](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/User) $7.20 $2.18 0.30x 2026-11-11 12:38 UTC

[Glock-18 | Nuclear Garden (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-nuclear-garden-well-worn) [User](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/User) $7.20 $2.52 0.35x 2026-11-11 12:38 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Marina (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-marina-field-tested) [onemilly1](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/onemilly1) $7.20 $5.30 0.74x 2026-11-11 10:42 UTC

[Glock-18 | Nuclear Garden (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-nuclear-garden-battle-scarred) [-\_Nash](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/-_Nash) $7.20 $2.18 0.30x 2026-11-11 06:26 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 09:02 UTC | $6.34 | 87.98% | 115 |
| 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $6.34 | 88.00% | 115 |
| 8 Nov, 13:32 UTC | $6.34 | 88.00% | 115 |
| 7 Nov, 12:18 UTC | $6.34 | 88.05% | 115 |
| 6 Nov, 11:25 UTC | $6.34 | 88.01% | 115 |
| 5 Nov, 10:45 UTC | $6.34 | 88.03% | 115 |
| 4 Nov, 15:04 UTC | $6.34 | 87.99% | 115 |
| 3 Nov, 22:52 UTC | $6.34 | 88.10% | 115 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.8% covert knife 0.3% #eb4b4b 0.0% Legendary 0.5% classified 4.8% Covert 0.0% restricted 67.2% Immortal 0.0% gold 0.0% #ffd700 0.0% Restricted 0.6% Classified 0.1% #d32ce6 0.1% pink 0.6% SMGs 0.2% #8847ff 24.4% best hit $360 (56.85x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.98 on average: an expected loss of $12.02 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt