---
title: "404: Soul Not Found case on Hellcase: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "404: Soul Not Found ($0.50) on Hellcase, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.99% from 100 items with odds, observed 84.97% over 1,070 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/soul-not-found
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:46Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hellcase](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hellcase) / [404: Soul Not Found](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/soul-not-found)

# [Hellcase](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hellcase) · 404: Soul Not Found

A case on Hellcase (halloween), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Hellcase's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/soul-not-found?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/soul-not-found?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/soul-not-found) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/soul-not-found?window=all)

Price · $0.50

Advertised RTP · 87.99% · EV $0.44 from 100 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 84.97% · 1,070 openings, odds method

Variance · 2.3× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 11.8% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 69.5% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

7 days · 92.47% ±11.36 677 openings

30 days · 84.97% ±9.05 1,070 openings

since tracking started · 84.97% ±9.05 1,070 openings

75.5% 90.0% 104.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/soul-not-found?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/soul-not-found?window=7d) | 677 | 92.47% ±11.4 | +0.8σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/soul-not-found) | 1,070 | 84.97% ±9.05 | −0.7σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/soul-not-found?window=all) | 1,070 | 84.97% ±9.05 | −0.7σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 100 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,080 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Triarch (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-triarch-factory-new) | 1 in 1,282 | $9.64 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Sacrifice (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-sacrifice-factory-new) | 1 in 1,075 | $8.11 | 1.7% | 0 | 1.0 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Sacrifice (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-sacrifice-factory-new) | 1 in 1,020 | $7.69 | 1.7% | 2 | 1.1 | 1.89× |
| [StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Fubar (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-tec-9-fubar-minimal-wear) | 1 in 714 | $5.39 | 1.7% | 4 | 1.5 | 2.65× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-night-terror-factory-new) | 1 in 645 | $4.87 | 1.7% | 2 | 1.7 | 1.19× |
| [Tec-9 \| Fubar (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-fubar-minimal-wear) | 1 in 617 | $4.63 | 1.7% | 2 | 1.7 | 1.14× |
| [SG 553 \| Triarch (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-triarch-factory-new) | 1 in 549 | $4.13 | 1.7% | 0 | 2.0 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Connexion (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-galil-ar-connexion-factory-new) | 1 in 538 | $4.07 | 1.7% | 1 | 2.0 | 0.50× |
| [MAC-10 \| Palm (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-palm-factory-new) | 1 in 485 | $3.65 | 1.7% | 0 | 2.2 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-night-terror-battle-scarred) | 1 in 348 | $2.63 | 1.7% | 2 | 3.1 | 0.65× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-night-terror-minimal-wear) | 1 in 310 | $2.33 | 1.7% | 4 | 3.5 | 1.15× |
| [Galil AR \| Connexion (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-connexion-factory-new) | 1 in 300 | $2.26 | 1.7% | 2 | 3.6 | 0.56× |
| [M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-night-terror-factory-new) | 1 in 297 | $2.24 | 1.7% | 6 | 3.6 | 1.65× |
| [StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Triarch (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-triarch-minimal-wear) | 1 in 285 | $2.15 | 1.7% | 2 | 3.8 | 0.53× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-night-terror-well-worn) | 1 in 242 | $1.82 | 1.7% | 3 | 4.5 | 0.67× |
| [SG 553 \| Triarch (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-triarch-minimal-wear) | 1 in 236 | $1.78 | 1.7% | 7 | 4.6 | 1.53× |
| [StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Connexion (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-galil-ar-connexion-minimal-wear) | 1 in 235 | $1.77 | 1.7% | 3 | 4.6 | 0.65× |
| [SG 553 \| Triarch (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-triarch-field-tested) | 1 in 192 | $1.45 | 1.7% | 2 | 5.6 | 0.36× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-night-terror-field-tested) | 1 in 192 | $1.45 | 1.7% | 11 | 5.6 | 1.96× |
| [StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Triarch (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-triarch-field-tested) | 1 in 187 | $1.41 | 1.7% | 7 | 5.8 | 1.21× |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Sacrifice (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-sacrifice-minimal-wear) | 1 in 179 | $1.35 | 1.7% | 2 | 6.0 | 0.33× |
| [SG 553 \| Triarch (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-triarch-well-worn) | 1 in 176 | $1.33 | 1.7% | 9 | 6.1 | 1.47× |
| [StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Triarch (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-triarch-well-worn) | 1 in 176 | $1.33 | 1.7% | 5 | 6.1 | 0.82× |
| [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Scrawl (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-scrawl-factory-new) | 1 in 170 | $1.28 | 1.7% | 2 | 6.4 | 0.31× |
| [SG 553 \| Triarch (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-triarch-battle-scarred) | 1 in 169 | $1.27 | 1.7% | 6 | 6.4 | 0.94× |
| [StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Triarch (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-triarch-battle-scarred) | 1 in 168 | $1.27 | 1.7% | 7 | 6.4 | 1.09× |
| [USP-S \| PC-GRN (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-pc-grn-factory-new) | 1 in 163 | $1.23 | 1.7% | 7 | 6.6 | 1.06× |
| [FAMAS \| Colony (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-colony-factory-new) | 1 in 158 | $1.19 | 1.7% | 5 | 6.8 | 0.73× |
| [StatTrak™ MP9 \| Black Sand (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-black-sand-factory-new) | 1 in 155 | $1.17 | 1.7% | 10 | 7.0 | 1.44× |
| [M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-night-terror-minimal-wear) | 1 in 150 | $1.13 | 1.7% | 7 | 7.2 | 0.97× |
| [Galil AR \| Connexion (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-connexion-minimal-wear) | 1 in 149 | $1.12 | 1.7% | 7 | 7.3 | 0.96× |
| [M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-night-terror-battle-scarred) | 1 in 133 | $1.00 | 1.7% | 10 | 8.1 | 1.23× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Urban Rubble (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-urban-rubble-factory-new) | 1 in 130 | $0.98 | 1.7% | 11 | 8.3 | 1.32× |
| [MP9 \| Black Sand (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-black-sand-factory-new) | 1 in 127 | $0.96 | 1.7% | 11 | 8.5 | 1.30× |
| [M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-night-terror-well-worn) | 1 in 122 | $0.92 | 1.7% | 12 | 8.8 | 1.36× |
| [StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Connexion (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-galil-ar-connexion-well-worn) | 1 in 119 | $0.90 | 1.7% | 9 | 9.1 | 0.99× |
| [M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-night-terror-field-tested) | 1 in 118 | $0.89 | 1.7% | 9 | 9.1 | 0.99× |
| [StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Connexion (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-galil-ar-connexion-field-tested) | 1 in 114 | $0.86 | 1.7% | 3 | 9.5 | 0.32× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Scrawl (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-scrawl-factory-new) | 1 in 113 | $0.85 | 1.7% | 8 | 9.6 | 0.84× |
| [StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Connexion (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-galil-ar-connexion-battle-scarred) | 1 in 106 | $0.80 | 1.7% | 9 | 10.2 | 0.88× |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Sacrifice (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-sacrifice-field-tested) | 1 in 93 | $0.70 | 1.7% | 13 | 11.6 | 1.12× |
| [Glock-18 \| Sacrifice (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-sacrifice-minimal-wear) | 1 in 89 | $0.67 | 1.7% | 10 | 12.2 | 0.82× |
| [Nova \| Sand Dune (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-sand-dune-factory-new) | 1 in 86 | $0.65 | 1.7% | 10 | 12.5 | 0.80× |
| [Glock-18 \| Sacrifice (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-sacrifice-field-tested) | 1 in 82 | $0.62 | 1.7% | 20 | 13.1 | 1.52× |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Sacrifice (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-sacrifice-well-worn) | 1 in 69 | $0.52 | 1.7% | 13 | 15.7 | 0.83× |
| [Galil AR \| Connexion (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-connexion-field-tested) | 1 in 68 | $0.51 | 1.7% | 23 | 16.0 | 1.44× |
| [Galil AR \| Connexion (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-connexion-well-worn) | 1 in 68 | $0.51 | 1.7% | 16 | 16.0 | 1.00× |
| [Galil AR \| Connexion (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-connexion-battle-scarred) | 1 in 66 | $0.50 | 1.7% | 17 | 16.3 | 1.04× |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Sacrifice (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-sacrifice-battle-scarred) | 1 in 62 | $0.47 | 1.7% | 8 | 17.3 | 0.46× |
| [Glock-18 \| Sacrifice (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-sacrifice-well-worn) | 1 in 60 | $0.45 | 1.7% | 9 | 18.1 | 0.50× |
| [Glock-18 \| Sacrifice (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-sacrifice-battle-scarred) | 1 in 340 | $0.43 | 0.3% | 5 | 3.2 | 1.57× |
| [Tec-9 \| Fubar (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-fubar-field-tested) | 1 in 317 | $0.40 | 0.3% | 1 | 3.4 | 0.29× |
| [StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Fubar (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-tec-9-fubar-field-tested) | 1 in 270 | $0.34 | 0.3% | 2 | 4.0 | 0.50× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Urban Rubble (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-urban-rubble-minimal-wear) | 1 in 269 | $0.34 | 0.3% | 3 | 4.0 | 0.75× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Urban Rubble (Battle-Scarred) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-urban-rubble-battle-scarred) | 1 in 261 | $0.33 | 0.3% | 2 | 4.1 | 0.48× |
| [MP7 \| Motherboard (Factory New) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-motherboard-factory-new) | 1 in 261 | $0.33 | 0.3% | 2 | 4.1 | 0.48× |
| [MP9 \| Black Sand (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-black-sand-field-tested) | 1 in 253 | $0.32 | 0.3% | 5 | 4.3 | 1.17× |
| [USP-S \| PC-GRN (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-pc-grn-minimal-wear) | 1 in 238 | $0.30 | 0.3% | 6 | 4.5 | 1.32× |
| [MP9 \| Black Sand (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-black-sand-minimal-wear) | 1 in 230 | $0.29 | 0.3% | 7 | 4.7 | 1.49× |
| [StatTrak™ MP9 \| Black Sand (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-black-sand-minimal-wear) | 1 in 229 | $0.29 | 0.3% | 7 | 4.7 | 1.49× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Urban Rubble (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-urban-rubble-well-worn) | 1 in 230 | $0.29 | 0.3% | 6 | 4.7 | 1.28× |
| [Tec-9 \| Fubar (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-fubar-well-worn) | 1 in 206 | $0.26 | 0.3% | 0 | 5.2 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Scrawl (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-scrawl-minimal-wear) | 1 in 206 | $0.26 | 0.3% | 7 | 5.2 | 1.33× |
| [StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Fubar (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-tec-9-fubar-well-worn) | 1 in 198 | $0.25 | 0.3% | 8 | 5.5 | 1.47× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Urban Rubble (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-urban-rubble-field-tested) | 1 in 198 | $0.25 | 0.3% | 10 | 5.5 | 1.83× |
| [Tec-9 \| Fubar (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-fubar-battle-scarred) | 1 in 190 | $0.24 | 0.3% | 5 | 5.7 | 0.88× |
| [StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Fubar (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-tec-9-fubar-battle-scarred) | 1 in 190 | $0.24 | 0.3% | 11 | 5.7 | 1.94× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Scrawl (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-scrawl-minimal-wear) | 1 in 158 | $0.20 | 0.3% | 11 | 6.8 | 1.61× |
| [USP-S \| PC-GRN (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-pc-grn-field-tested) | 1 in 158 | $0.20 | 0.3% | 10 | 6.8 | 1.47× |
| [USP-S \| PC-GRN (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-pc-grn-well-worn) | 1 in 158 | $0.20 | 0.3% | 6 | 6.8 | 0.88× |
| [USP-S \| PC-GRN (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-pc-grn-battle-scarred) | 1 in 158 | $0.20 | 0.3% | 9 | 6.8 | 1.32× |
| [MP9 \| Black Sand (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-black-sand-battle-scarred) | 1 in 158 | $0.20 | 0.3% | 12 | 6.8 | 1.76× |
| [MAC-10 \| Palm (Minimal Wear) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-palm-minimal-wear) | 1 in 158 | $0.20 | 0.3% | 8 | 6.8 | 1.17× |
| [P250 \| Metallic DDPAT (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-metallic-ddpat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 158 | $0.20 | 0.3% | 7 | 6.8 | 1.03× |
| [MP9 \| Black Sand (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-black-sand-well-worn) | 1 in 142 | $0.18 | 0.3% | 3 | 7.6 | 0.40× |
| [StatTrak™ MP9 \| Black Sand (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-black-sand-well-worn) | 1 in 127 | $0.16 | 0.3% | 7 | 8.5 | 0.82× |
| [StatTrak™ MP9 \| Black Sand (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-black-sand-field-tested) | 1 in 127 | $0.16 | 0.3% | 6 | 8.5 | 0.70× |
| [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Scrawl (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-scrawl-field-tested) | 1 in 103 | $0.13 | 0.3% | 18 | 10.5 | 1.72× |
| [StatTrak™ MP9 \| Black Sand (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-black-sand-battle-scarred) | 1 in 103 | $0.13 | 0.3% | 8 | 10.5 | 0.76× |
| [P250 \| Metallic DDPAT (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-metallic-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 103 | $0.13 | 0.3% | 13 | 10.5 | 1.24× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Scrawl (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-scrawl-field-tested) | 1 in 95 | $0.12 | 0.3% | 9 | 11.4 | 0.79× |
| [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Scrawl (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-scrawl-battle-scarred) | 1 in 95 | $0.12 | 0.3% | 9 | 11.4 | 0.79× |
| [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Scrawl (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-scrawl-well-worn) | 1 in 95 | $0.12 | 0.3% | 7 | 11.4 | 0.62× |
| [MP7 \| Motherboard (Minimal Wear) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-motherboard-minimal-wear) | 1 in 95 | $0.12 | 0.3% | 14 | 11.4 | 1.23× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Scrawl (Battle-Scarred) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-scrawl-battle-scarred) | 1 in 79 | $0.10 | 0.3% | 11 | 13.6 | 0.81× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Scrawl (Well-Worn) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-scrawl-well-worn) | 1 in 79 | $0.10 | 0.3% | 11 | 13.6 | 0.81× |
| [MP7 \| Motherboard (Battle-Scarred) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-motherboard-battle-scarred) | 1 in 63 | $0.08 | 0.3% | 18 | 17.0 | 1.06× |
| [MP7 \| Motherboard (Well-Worn) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-motherboard-well-worn) | 1 in 63 | $0.08 | 0.3% | 21 | 17.1 | 1.23× |
| [Nova \| Sand Dune (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-sand-dune-minimal-wear) | 1 in 63 | $0.08 | 0.3% | 27 | 17.0 | 1.58× |
| [MP7 \| Motherboard (Field-Tested) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-motherboard-field-tested) | 1 in 48 | $0.06 | 0.3% | 24 | 22.7 | 1.06× |
| [FAMAS \| Colony (Minimal Wear) weapon · #777777](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-colony-minimal-wear) | 1 in 48 | $0.06 | 0.3% | 24 | 22.7 | 1.06× |
| [MAC-10 \| Palm (Well-Worn) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-palm-well-worn) | 1 in 32 | $0.04 | 0.3% | 38 | 34.1 | 1.11× |
| [MAC-10 \| Palm (Battle-Scarred) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-palm-battle-scarred) | 1 in 32 | $0.04 | 0.3% | 28 | 34.1 | 0.82× |
| [MAC-10 \| Palm (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-palm-field-tested) | 1 in 32 | $0.04 | 0.3% | 44 | 34.1 | 1.29× |
| [FAMAS \| Colony (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-colony-well-worn) | 1 in 32 | $0.04 | 0.3% | 38 | 34.1 | 1.11× |
| [FAMAS \| Colony (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-colony-battle-scarred) | 1 in 24 | $0.03 | 0.3% | 45 | 45.5 | 0.99× |
| [FAMAS \| Colony (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-colony-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $0.03 | 0.3% | 39 | 45.5 | 0.86× |
| [Nova \| Sand Dune (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-sand-dune-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $0.03 | 0.3% | 37 | 45.5 | 0.81× |
| [Nova \| Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-sand-dune-well-worn) | 1 in 24 | $0.03 | 0.3% | 39 | 45.5 | 0.86× |
| [Nova \| Sand Dune (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-sand-dune-battle-scarred) | 1 in 24 | $0.03 | 0.3% | 44 | 45.5 | 0.97× |

Values are Hellcase's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hellcase:api/open/soul-not-found`, 6 Nov, 11:25 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hellcase&case=soul-not-found)

[Glock-18 | Sacrifice (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-sacrifice-minimal-wear) [grgavidakovic31](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/grgavidakovic31) $0.50 $0.67 1.34x 2026-11-06 13:54 UTC

[Nova | Sand Dune (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-sand-dune-field-tested) [grgavidakovic31](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/grgavidakovic31) $0.50 $0.03 0.06x 2026-11-06 13:54 UTC

[Nova | Sand Dune (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-sand-dune-field-tested) [ZAmoraHolly](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/ZAmoraHolly) $0.50 $0.03 0.06x 2026-11-06 13:40 UTC

[FAMAS | Colony (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-colony-field-tested) [ZAmoraHolly](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/ZAmoraHolly) $0.50 $0.03 0.06x 2026-11-06 13:39 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Urban Rubble (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-urban-rubble-well-worn) [ZAmoraHolly](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/ZAmoraHolly) $0.50 $0.29 0.58x 2026-11-06 13:39 UTC

[StatTrak™ MP9 | Black Sand (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-black-sand-factory-new) [ZAmoraHolly](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/ZAmoraHolly) $0.50 $1.17 2.34x 2026-11-06 13:39 UTC

[StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Scrawl (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-scrawl-field-tested) [ZAmoraHolly](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/ZAmoraHolly) $0.50 $0.13 0.26x 2026-11-06 13:39 UTC

[FAMAS | Colony (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-colony-field-tested) [cwell](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/cwell) $0.50 $0.03 0.06x 2026-11-06 13:39 UTC

[P250 | Metallic DDPAT (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-metallic-ddpat-factory-new) [cwell](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/cwell) $0.50 $0.13 0.26x 2026-11-06 13:39 UTC

[MAC-10 | Palm (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-palm-field-tested) [cwell](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/cwell) $0.50 $0.04 0.08x 2026-11-06 13:21 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 6 Nov, 11:25 UTC | $0.50 | 87.99% | 100 |
| 5 Nov, 10:45 UTC | $0.50 | 88.00% | 100 |
| 4 Nov, 15:04 UTC | $0.50 | 87.99% | 100 |
| 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $0.50 | 88.00% | 100 |
| 2 Nov, 21:49 UTC | $0.50 | 88.02% | 100 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed Restricted 0.5% mil spec 9.0% #4b69ff 3.3% Mythical 3.6% restricted 5.4% #8847ff 5.7% industrial 12.9% violet 3.1% milspec 15.1% Mil Spec Grade 2.2% consumer 27.6% Rare 2.6% #87c7ff 5.8% blue 0.6% Mil Spec 0.6% #777777 2.1% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.99 on average: an expected loss of $12.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt