---
title: "Talon Knives case on Hellcase: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Talon Knives ($450.00) on Hellcase, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.00% from 117 items with odds, observed 82.17% over 6 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/talon
rendered: 2026-11-12T14:17Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hellcase](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hellcase) / [Talon Knives](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/talon)

# [Hellcase](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hellcase) · Talon Knives

A case on Hellcase (knives), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hellcase's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/talon?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/talon?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/talon) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/talon?window=all)

Price · $450.00

Advertised RTP · 88.00% · EV $396.00 from 117 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 82.17% · 6 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.1× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 36.2% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 75.3% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

7 days · 1 openings · below min

30 days · 6 openings · below min

since tracking started · 6 openings · below min

-0.5% 65.8% 132.0%

**Small sample.** 6 openings and 2.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/talon?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/talon?window=7d) | 1 | 62.83% ±68.3 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/talon) | 6 | 82.17% ±27.9 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/talon?window=all) | 6 | 82.17% ±27.9 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 117 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 6 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 400 | $1,518 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 258 | $977 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 253 | $956 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 243 | $922 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-marble-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 234 | $888 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 222 | $841 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 210 | $796 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-case-hardened-minimal-wear) | 1 in 209 | $791 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 205 | $779 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-slaughter-field-tested) | 1 in 201 | $760 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $758 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-case-hardened-minimal-wear) | 1 in 194 | $734 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 194 | $734 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 186 | $705 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-slaughter-field-tested) | 1 in 183 | $694 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-tiger-tooth-minimal-wear) | 1 in 180 | $682 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 180 | $680 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 169 | $639 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Night Stripe (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-night-stripe-factory-new) | 1 in 164 | $623 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-blue-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 162 | $615 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 162 | $614 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-blue-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 161 | $608 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Stained (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-stained-factory-new) | 1 in 153 | $580 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-blue-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 153 | $580 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-case-hardened-battle-scarred) | 1 in 147 | $559 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 147 | $557 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-ultraviolet-minimal-wear) | 1 in 146 | $553 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-crimson-web-well-worn) | 1 in 145 | $548 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Stained (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-stained-minimal-wear) | 1 in 131 | $498 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Scorched (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-scorched-factory-new) | 1 in 129 | $488 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Urban Masked (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-urban-masked-factory-new) | 1 in 129 | $487 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-crimson-web-well-worn) | 1 in 127 | $483 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-case-hardened-well-worn) | 1 in 126 | $479 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Blue Steel (Well-Worn) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-blue-steel-well-worn) | 1 in 125 | $475 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-ultraviolet-minimal-wear) | 1 in 125 | $474 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Blue Steel (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-blue-steel-battle-scarred) | 1 in 124 | $470 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-case-hardened-well-worn) | 1 in 123 | $465 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Damascus Steel (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-damascus-steel-battle-scarred) | 1 in 120 | $457 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-case-hardened-battle-scarred) | 1 in 120 | $454 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Boreal Forest (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-boreal-forest-factory-new) | 1 in 119 | $453 | 1.0% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-blue-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 118 | $448 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Blue Steel (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-blue-steel-well-worn) | 1 in 118 | $447 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-damascus-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 117 | $444 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 117 | $444 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Night Stripe (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-night-stripe-minimal-wear) | 1 in 117 | $443 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Damascus Steel (Well-Worn) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-damascus-steel-well-worn) | 1 in 116 | $440 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 115 | $435 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Damascus Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-damascus-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 113 | $429 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-crimson-web-battle-scarred) | 1 in 112 | $425 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-damascus-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 110 | $418 | 1.0% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Stained (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-stained-minimal-wear) | 1 in 109 | $413 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Stained (Well-Worn) StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-stained-well-worn) | 1 in 105 | $400 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Damascus Steel (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-damascus-steel-well-worn) | 1 in 105 | $399 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Ultraviolet (Well-Worn) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-ultraviolet-well-worn) | 1 in 105 | $398 | 1.0% | 2 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Scorched (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-scorched-minimal-wear) | 1 in 105 | $397 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-crimson-web-battle-scarred) | 1 in 130 | $392 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Urban Masked (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-urban-masked-minimal-wear) | 1 in 130 | $392 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Scorched (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-scorched-factory-new) | 1 in 125 | $379 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Urban Masked (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-urban-masked-minimal-wear) | 1 in 125 | $377 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-damascus-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 124 | $375 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Stained (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-stained-battle-scarred) | 1 in 122 | $370 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Night Stripe (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-night-stripe-field-tested) | 1 in 122 | $368 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Stained (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-stained-well-worn) | 1 in 121 | $365 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-ultraviolet-field-tested) | 1 in 118 | $358 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Stained (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-stained-field-tested) | 1 in 117 | $355 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Night Stripe (Minimal Wear) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-night-stripe-minimal-wear) | 1 in 116 | $352 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Scorched (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-scorched-minimal-wear) | 1 in 115 | $349 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-ultraviolet-field-tested) | 1 in 114 | $346 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Stained (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-stained-battle-scarred) | 1 in 114 | $344 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Scorched (Well-Worn) StatTrak · knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-scorched-well-worn) | 1 in 113 | $342 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Boreal Forest (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-boreal-forest-battle-scarred) | 1 in 112 | $340 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-safari-mesh-minimal-wear) | 1 in 111 | $337 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Night Stripe (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-night-stripe-battle-scarred) | 1 in 111 | $336 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Stained (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-stained-field-tested) | 1 in 111 | $336 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Ultraviolet (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-ultraviolet-battle-scarred) | 1 in 110 | $332 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-forest-ddpat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 110 | $332 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Ultraviolet (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-ultraviolet-battle-scarred) | 1 in 109 | $329 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Urban Masked (Well-Worn) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-urban-masked-well-worn) | 1 in 108 | $327 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-rust-coat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 108 | $325 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-forest-ddpat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 106 | $319 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Urban Masked (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-urban-masked-field-tested) | 1 in 105 | $319 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Night Stripe (Well-Worn) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-night-stripe-well-worn) | 1 in 105 | $318 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Ultraviolet (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-ultraviolet-well-worn) | 1 in 104 | $316 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-rust-coat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 103 | $311 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Night Stripe (Well-Worn) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-night-stripe-well-worn) | 1 in 102 | $310 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Boreal Forest (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-boreal-forest-minimal-wear) | 1 in 101 | $305 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Urban Masked (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-urban-masked-field-tested) | 1 in 101 | $304 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Urban Masked (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-urban-masked-well-worn) | 1 in 99 | $301 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Rust Coat (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-rust-coat-well-worn) | 1 in 98 | $297 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Night Stripe (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-night-stripe-battle-scarred) | 1 in 98 | $296 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Safari Mesh (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-safari-mesh-battle-scarred) | 1 in 98 | $295 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Scorched (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-scorched-field-tested) | 1 in 97 | $294 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-safari-mesh-minimal-wear) | 1 in 97 | $294 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Safari Mesh (Well-Worn) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-safari-mesh-well-worn) | 1 in 95 | $288 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Boreal Forest (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-boreal-forest-minimal-wear) | 1 in 95 | $286 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Urban Masked (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-urban-masked-battle-scarred) | 1 in 93 | $283 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Well-Worn) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-forest-ddpat-well-worn) | 1 in 93 | $281 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Boreal Forest (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-boreal-forest-well-worn) | 1 in 93 | $281 | 0.8% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-boreal-forest-field-tested) | 1 in 93 | $281 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Scorched (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-scorched-battle-scarred) | 1 in 93 | $281 | 0.8% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-forest-ddpat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 92 | $278 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Scorched (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-scorched-well-worn) | 1 in 92 | $277 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-forest-ddpat-field-tested) | 1 in 91 | $276 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-forest-ddpat-field-tested) | 1 in 91 | $274 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Boreal Forest (Well-Worn) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-boreal-forest-well-worn) | 1 in 89 | $269 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Boreal Forest (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-boreal-forest-battle-scarred) | 1 in 89 | $269 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-safari-mesh-field-tested) | 1 in 88 | $265 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Scorched (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-scorched-battle-scarred) | 1 in 87 | $262 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Scorched (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-scorched-field-tested) | 1 in 86 | $260 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-boreal-forest-field-tested) | 1 in 86 | $259 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-forest-ddpat-well-worn) | 1 in 85 | $257 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Urban Masked (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-urban-masked-battle-scarred) | 1 in 85 | $256 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-safari-mesh-field-tested) | 1 in 83 | $251 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-forest-ddpat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 82 | $249 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Safari Mesh (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-safari-mesh-battle-scarred) | 1 in 82 | $248 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Safari Mesh (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-safari-mesh-well-worn) | 1 in 77 | $232 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Night Stripe (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-night-stripe-field-tested) | 1 in 75 | $228 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — |

Values are Hellcase's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hellcase:api/open/talon`, 12 Nov, 10:12 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hellcase&case=talon)

[★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife | Scorched (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-scorched-battle-scarred) [!DANNCHE](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/!DANNCHE) $450 $283 0.63x 2026-11-09 22:24 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 12 Nov, 10:12 UTC | $450 | 88.00% | 117 |
| 11 Nov, 09:51 UTC | $450 | 88.00% | 117 |
| 10 Nov, 15:35 UTC | $450 | 88.00% | 117 |
| 10 Nov, 09:02 UTC | $450 | 88.00% | 117 |
| 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $450 | 88.00% | 117 |
| 8 Nov, 13:32 UTC | $450 | 88.00% | 117 |
| 7 Nov, 12:18 UTC | $450 | 88.00% | 117 |
| 6 Nov, 11:25 UTC | $450 | 88.00% | 117 |
| 5 Nov, 10:45 UTC | $450 | 88.00% | 117 |
| 4 Nov, 15:04 UTC | $450 | 88.00% | 117 |
| 4 Nov, 08:59 UTC | $450 | 87.74% | 117 |
| 3 Nov, 15:54 UTC | $450 | 88.00% | 117 |
| 3 Nov, 05:35 UTC | $450 | 88.00% | 117 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert knife 64.4% epic 2.4% Covert 6.4% covert 18.9% gold 0.5% Immortal 0.5% #EB4B4B 6.8% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.00 on average: an expected loss of $12.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt