--- title: "Operation Vanguard case on Hellcase: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Operation Vanguard ($1.50) on Hellcase, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 88.63% over 363 openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/vanguard rendered: 2026-11-11T20:59Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hellcase](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hellcase) / [Operation Vanguard](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/vanguard) # [Hellcase](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hellcase) · Operation Vanguard A case on Hellcase, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Hellcase's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/vanguard?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/vanguard?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/vanguard) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/vanguard?window=all) Price · $1.50 Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 88.63% · 363 openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 24 hours · 27 openings · below min 7 days · 276 openings · below min 30 days · 363 openings · below min since tracking started · 363 openings · below min 58.5% 115.8% 173.0% **Small sample.** 363 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/vanguard?window=24h) | 27 | 115.85% ±56.6 | — | sample | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/vanguard?window=7d) | 276 | 86.53% ±11.7 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/vanguard) | 363 | 88.63% ±10.4 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/vanguard?window=all) | 363 | 88.63% ±10.4 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** Hellcase publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are Hellcase's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hellcase&case=vanguard) [UMP-45 | Delusion (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-delusion-field-tested) [Gn0x](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/Gn0x) $1.50 $0.76 0.51x 2026-11-11 20:12 UTC [StatTrak™ MP9 | Dart (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-dart-well-worn) [Gn0x](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/Gn0x) $1.50 $1.30 0.87x 2026-11-11 20:12 UTC [StatTrak™ MP9 | Dart (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-dart-well-worn) [Mladic Ratko](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/Mladic%20Ratko) $1.50 $1.30 0.87x 2026-11-11 20:05 UTC [UMP-45 | Delusion (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-delusion-field-tested) [Mladic Ratko](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/Mladic%20Ratko) $1.50 $0.76 0.51x 2026-11-11 20:05 UTC [StatTrak™ G3SG1 | Murky (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · #4B69FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-g3sg1-murky-field-tested) [ÇAKAL MEDET](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/%C3%87AKAL%20MEDET) $1.50 $1.88 1.25x 2026-11-11 19:20 UTC [MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-firestarter-field-tested) [Puffff](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/Puffff) $1.50 $0.83 0.55x 2026-11-11 19:07 UTC [G3SG1 | Murky (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-murky-field-tested) [Puffff](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/Puffff) $1.50 $0.85 0.57x 2026-11-11 19:07 UTC [MP9 | Dart (Well-Worn) weapon · 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-dart-well-worn) [Joyenesco](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/Joyenesco) $1.50 $0.91 0.61x 2026-11-11 17:28 UTC [MP9 | Dart (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-dart-field-tested) [olandezu el terorr](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/olandezu%20el%20terorr) $1.50 $0.74 0.49x 2026-11-11 16:52 UTC [StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · #4B69FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mag-7-firestarter-field-tested) [Azr0d](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/Azr0d) $1.50 $1.32 0.88x 2026-11-11 14:45 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.6% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.63 on average: an expected loss of $11.37 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt