---
title: "Volksfest case on Hellcase: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Volksfest ($8.00) on Hellcase, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.00% from 129 items with odds. Item values at the site’s own prices, biggest and latest drops."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/volksfest
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:26Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hellcase](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hellcase) / [Volksfest](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/volksfest)

# [Hellcase](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hellcase) · Volksfest

A case on Hellcase (germany-cases), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hellcase's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/volksfest?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/volksfest?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/volksfest) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/volksfest?window=all)

Price · $8.00

Advertised RTP · 88.00% · EV $7.04 from 129 items

Observed RTP, 30d · — · no counted openings

Variance · 3.2× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 20.3% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 88.5% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

**No counted openings yet** Openings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/volksfest?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/volksfest?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/volksfest) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/volksfest?window=all) | 0 | — | — | — |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 129 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AK-47 \| Jaguar (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-jaguar-factory-new) | 1 in 16,667 | $569 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Jaguar (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-jaguar-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14,286 | $443 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Ursus Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ursus-knife-tiger-tooth-minimal-wear) | 1 in 8,333 | $274 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Control Panel (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-control-panel-factory-new) | 1 in 8,333 | $253 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Jaguar (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-jaguar-field-tested) | 1 in 7,143 | $228 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-tiger-tooth-minimal-wear) | 1 in 6,250 | $209 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-doppler-minimal-wear) | 1 in 6,667 | $208 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Jaguar (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-jaguar-well-worn) | 1 in 5,882 | $195 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-neo-noir-factory-new) | 1 in 5,882 | $191 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Jaguar (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-jaguar-battle-scarred) | 1 in 5,556 | $183 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Ursus Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ursus-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 5,556 | $174 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 5,263 | $171 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-navaja-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 4,762 | $159 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Jaguar (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-jaguar-minimal-wear) | 1 in 4,762 | $150 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AUG \| Chameleon (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-aug-chameleon-factory-new) | 1 in 3,704 | $120 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-neo-noir-factory-new) | 1 in 3,571 | $118 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 3,571 | $116 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AUG \| Chameleon (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-aug-chameleon-battle-scarred) | 1 in 3,571 | $113 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Jaguar (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-jaguar-field-tested) | 1 in 3,448 | $110 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-rust-coat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 3,448 | $110 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AUG \| Chameleon (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-aug-chameleon-well-worn) | 1 in 3,333 | $109 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AUG \| Chameleon (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-aug-chameleon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,333 | $108 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Jaguar (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-jaguar-well-worn) | 1 in 3,125 | $104 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AUG \| Chameleon (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-chameleon-battle-scarred) | 1 in 3,226 | $102 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Jaguar (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-jaguar-battle-scarred) | 1 in 3,125 | $99.47 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Five-SeveN \| Angry Mob (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-angry-mob-factory-new) | 1 in 3,030 | $98.55 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Angry Mob (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-angry-mob-factory-new) | 1 in 3,030 | $98.35 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AUG \| Chameleon (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-chameleon-field-tested) | 1 in 3,030 | $98.16 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AUG \| Chameleon (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-aug-chameleon-field-tested) | 1 in 2,941 | $95.98 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AUG \| Chameleon (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-chameleon-well-worn) | 1 in 2,778 | $89.99 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Griffin (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-griffin-factory-new) | 1 in 2,778 | $88.24 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AUG \| Chameleon (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-chameleon-factory-new) | 1 in 2,703 | $87.41 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AUG \| Chameleon (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-chameleon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,500 | $80.25 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-neo-noir-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,439 | $80.19 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Five-SeveN \| Angry Mob (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-angry-mob-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,439 | $79.28 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Angry Mob (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-angry-mob-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,326 | $75.23 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Five-SeveN \| Angry Mob (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-angry-mob-well-worn) | 1 in 2,326 | $74.66 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Angry Mob (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-angry-mob-field-tested) | 1 in 2,174 | $71.09 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Angry Mob (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-angry-mob-battle-scarred) | 1 in 2,128 | $68.81 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Five-SeveN \| Angry Mob (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-angry-mob-battle-scarred) | 1 in 2,128 | $68.53 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Angry Mob (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-angry-mob-well-worn) | 1 in 2,083 | $66.88 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Five-SeveN \| Angry Mob (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-angry-mob-field-tested) | 1 in 2,000 | $64.64 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-neo-noir-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,000 | $63.54 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Basilisk (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-basilisk-factory-new) | 1 in 1,724 | $55.55 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-neo-noir-field-tested) | 1 in 1,351 | $43.49 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto \| Yellow Jacket (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-cz75-auto-yellow-jacket-factory-new) | 1 in 1,351 | $43.45 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-neo-noir-field-tested) | 1 in 1,250 | $40.76 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ P250 \| Epicenter (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-epicenter-factory-new) | 1 in 1,250 | $40.39 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Heat Treated (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-heat-treated-factory-new) | 1 in 1,220 | $39.52 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Control Panel (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-control-panel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,136 | $36.75 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-neo-noir-well-worn) | 1 in 1,111 | $35.96 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-neo-noir-well-worn) | 1 in 1,111 | $35.82 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Griffin (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-griffin-factory-new) | 1 in 1,087 | $35.39 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Stratosphere (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-stratosphere-factory-new) | 1 in 1,075 | $34.64 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Basilisk (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-basilisk-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,075 | $34.60 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-neo-noir-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,053 | $33.78 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-neo-noir-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,042 | $33.51 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Basilisk (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-basilisk-factory-new) | 1 in 855 | $27.73 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Basilisk (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-basilisk-battle-scarred) | 1 in 806 | $26.14 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Basilisk (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-basilisk-field-tested) | 1 in 806 | $26.11 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Avalanche (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-tec-9-avalanche-factory-new) | 1 in 806 | $26.10 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Naga (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-naga-factory-new) | 1 in 794 | $25.64 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Tec-9 \| Remote Control (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-remote-control-factory-new) | 1 in 787 | $25.42 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Naga (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-naga-factory-new) | 1 in 787 | $25.42 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Basilisk (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-basilisk-well-worn) | 1 in 781 | $25.21 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Yellow Jacket (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-yellow-jacket-factory-new) | 1 in 746 | $24.05 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Control Panel (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-control-panel-field-tested) | 1 in 690 | $22.37 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ P250 \| Epicenter (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-epicenter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 613 | $19.85 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P250 \| Epicenter (Factory New) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-epicenter-factory-new) | 1 in 581 | $18.76 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto \| Yellow Jacket (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-cz75-auto-yellow-jacket-minimal-wear) | 1 in 556 | $17.98 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Griffin (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-griffin-minimal-wear) | 1 in 442 | $14.29 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Griffin (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-griffin-well-worn) | 1 in 408 | $13.18 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Basilisk (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-basilisk-minimal-wear) | 1 in 392 | $12.66 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto \| Yellow Jacket (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-cz75-auto-yellow-jacket-field-tested) | 1 in 380 | $12.29 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Stratosphere (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-stratosphere-minimal-wear) | 1 in 369 | $11.94 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Tec-9 \| Avalanche (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-avalanche-factory-new) | 1 in 350 | $11.30 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Avalanche (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-tec-9-avalanche-minimal-wear) | 1 in 342 | $11.05 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Basilisk (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-basilisk-well-worn) | 1 in 331 | $10.70 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ P250 \| Epicenter (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-epicenter-field-tested) | 1 in 315 | $10.17 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P250 \| Epicenter (Minimal Wear) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-epicenter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 313 | $10.14 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto \| Yellow Jacket (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-cz75-auto-yellow-jacket-battle-scarred) | 1 in 312 | $10.07 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Tiger Moth (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-tiger-moth-factory-new) | 1 in 309 | $9.97 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Yellow Jacket (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-yellow-jacket-minimal-wear) | 1 in 307 | $9.92 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto \| Yellow Jacket (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-cz75-auto-yellow-jacket-well-worn) | 1 in 300 | $9.69 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Basilisk (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-basilisk-field-tested) | 1 in 296 | $9.57 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Basilisk (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-basilisk-battle-scarred) | 1 in 295 | $9.52 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ P250 \| Epicenter (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-epicenter-well-worn) | 1 in 294 | $9.48 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ P250 \| Epicenter (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-epicenter-battle-scarred) | 1 in 286 | $9.25 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Grinder (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-grinder-factory-new) | 1 in 280 | $9.07 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Griffin (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-griffin-battle-scarred) | 1 in 281 | $9.06 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Griffin (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-griffin-field-tested) | 1 in 280 | $9.05 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Grinder (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-grinder-factory-new) | 1 in 271 | $8.75 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Naga (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-naga-minimal-wear) | 1 in 266 | $8.58 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Grinder (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-grinder-field-tested) | 1 in 244 | $7.89 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Grinder (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-grinder-minimal-wear) | 1 in 243 | $7.83 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Avalanche (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-tec-9-avalanche-field-tested) | 1 in 233 | $7.52 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Griffin (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-griffin-minimal-wear) | 1 in 229 | $7.39 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Neural Net (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-famas-neural-net-factory-new) | 1 in 58 | $7.04 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Control Panel (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-control-panel-well-worn) | 1 in 58 | $7.03 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [FAMAS \| Neural Net (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-neural-net-factory-new) | 1 in 56 | $6.81 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Avalanche (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-tec-9-avalanche-well-worn) | 1 in 55 | $6.75 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [SG 553 \| Tiger Moth (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-tiger-moth-factory-new) | 1 in 48 | $5.86 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Tec-9 \| Remote Control (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-remote-control-minimal-wear) | 1 in 48 | $5.82 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Yellow Jacket (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-yellow-jacket-field-tested) | 1 in 47 | $5.77 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P250 \| Epicenter (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-epicenter-battle-scarred) | 1 in 44 | $5.39 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P250 \| Epicenter (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-epicenter-field-tested) | 1 in 44 | $5.38 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P250 \| Epicenter (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-epicenter-well-worn) | 1 in 44 | $5.37 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Avalanche (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-tec-9-avalanche-battle-scarred) | 1 in 44 | $5.36 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Control Panel (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-control-panel-battle-scarred) | 1 in 43 | $5.25 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Griffin (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-griffin-well-worn) | 1 in 42 | $5.12 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Naga (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-naga-field-tested) | 1 in 42 | $5.07 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Yellow Jacket (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-yellow-jacket-battle-scarred) | 1 in 41 | $4.99 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Tec-9 \| Avalanche (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-avalanche-minimal-wear) | 1 in 41 | $4.99 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Yellow Jacket (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-yellow-jacket-well-worn) | 1 in 41 | $4.95 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Naga (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-naga-battle-scarred) | 1 in 40 | $4.83 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Tiger Moth (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-tiger-moth-minimal-wear) | 1 in 40 | $4.83 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P250 \| Franklin (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-franklin-factory-new) | 1 in 39 | $4.82 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Naga (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-naga-minimal-wear) | 1 in 39 | $4.78 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Naga (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-naga-well-worn) | 1 in 39 | $4.78 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Stratosphere (Well-Worn) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-stratosphere-well-worn) | 1 in 38 | $4.61 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Stratosphere (Field-Tested) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-stratosphere-field-tested) | 1 in 37 | $4.51 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Griffin (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-griffin-field-tested) | 1 in 31 | $3.80 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Neural Net (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-famas-neural-net-minimal-wear) | 1 in 31 | $3.77 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Griffin (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-griffin-battle-scarred) | 1 in 29 | $3.58 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P250 \| Franklin (Well-Worn) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-franklin-well-worn) | 1 in 29 | $3.50 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Stratosphere (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-stratosphere-battle-scarred) | 1 in 27 | $3.28 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Heat Treated (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-heat-treated-minimal-wear) | 1 in 26 | $3.14 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Tec-9 \| Remote Control (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-remote-control-battle-scarred) | 1 in 21 | $2.55 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Tiger Moth (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-tiger-moth-well-worn) | 1 in 16 | $2.01 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |

Values are Hellcase's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hellcase:api/open/volksfest`, 10 Nov, 21:40 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hellcase&case=volksfest)

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Observed RTP over time · daily, 30 days

No history yet

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 21:40 UTC | $8.00 | 88.00% | 129 |
| 9 Nov, 08:08 UTC | $8.00 | 87.94% | 129 |
| 8 Nov, 06:49 UTC | $8.00 | 88.03% | 129 |
| 6 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $8.00 | 87.99% | 129 |
| 4 Nov, 15:04 UTC | $8.00 | 88.01% | 129 |
| 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $8.00 | 88.04% | 129 |
| 3 Nov, 02:05 UTC | $8.00 | 88.01% | 129 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 1.5% Legendary 0.0% covert knife 0.1% Covert 0.1% Immortal 0.0% red 0.1% restricted 46.1% #d32ee6 5.9% Ancient 0.1% rare 2.9% pink 9.1% classified 24.0% #d32ce6 2.4% violet 0.6% uncommon 1.0% #8847ff 2.4% Mythical 1.2% Classified 2.7%

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.00 on average: an expected loss of $12.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt