---
title: "Hotpizza deliveryman case on Hotpizza.gg: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Hotpizza deliveryman ($55.00) on Hotpizza.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.08% from 41 items with odds, observed 84.01% over 6,758 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/103
rendered: 2026-11-11T14:05Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hotpizza.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hotpizza) / [Hotpizza deliveryman](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/103)

# [Hotpizza.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hotpizza) · Hotpizza deliveryman

A case on Hotpizza.gg (Premium cases), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hotpizza.gg's own item price converted from hotpizza point at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/103?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/103?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/103) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/103?window=all)

Price · $55.00 · 55 HOTPIZZA\_POINT

Advertised RTP · 88.08% · EV $48.44 from 41 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 84.01% · 6,758 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.9× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 25.5% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 80.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 84.78% ±6.72 736 openings

7 days · 83.13% ±2.42 5,678 openings

30 days · 84.01% ±2.22 6,758 openings

since tracking started · 84.01% ±2.22 6,758 openings

77.5% 84.8% 92.0%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 88.08% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (81.79% – 86.23%, 6,758 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/103?window=24h) | 736 | 84.78% ±6.72 | −1.0σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/103?window=7d) | 5,678 | 83.13% ±2.42 | −4.0σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/103) | 6,758 | 84.01% ±2.22 | −3.6σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/103?window=all) | 6,758 | 84.01% ±2.22 | −3.6σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 41 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 6,764 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Souvenir M4A4 \| Eye of Horus (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a4-eye-of-horus-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $635 635 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.3% | 4 | 6.8 | 0.59× |
| [M4A4 \| The Coalition (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-coalition-field-tested) | 1 in 500 | $379 379 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.6% | 10 | 13.5 | 0.74× |
| [AUG \| Flame Jörmungandr (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-flame-jormungandr-minimal-wear) | 1 in 500 | $365 365 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.5% | 10 | 13.5 | 0.74× |
| [M4A4 \| Hellfire (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellfire-factory-new) | 1 in 333 | $359 359 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.2% | 9 | 20.3 | 0.44× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Bullet Rain (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-bullet-rain-factory-new) | 1 in 333 | $346 346 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.1% | 14 | 20.3 | 0.69× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Zirka (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-zirka-factory-new) | 1 in 250 | $290 290 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.4% | 27 | 27.1 | 1.00× |
| [Souvenir M4A4 \| Eye of Horus (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a4-eye-of-horus-field-tested) | 1 in 250 | $263 263 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.2% | 30 | 27.1 | 1.11× |
| [P90 \| Run and Hide (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-run-and-hide-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $218 218 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.3% | 35 | 33.8 | 1.03× |
| [M4A4 \| Hellfire (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellfire-minimal-wear) | 1 in 143 | $172 172 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.5% | 36 | 47.3 | 0.76× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| The Emperor (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-the-emperor-minimal-wear) | 1 in 143 | $167 167 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.4% | 36 | 47.3 | 0.76× |
| [M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-battle-scarred) | 1 in 125 | $126 126 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.1% | 51 | 54.1 | 0.94× |
| [M4A4 \| The Coalition (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-coalition-battle-scarred) | 1 in 111 | $124 124 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.3% | 53 | 60.9 | 0.87× |
| [P90 \| Death by Kitty (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-death-by-kitty-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $98.82 98.82 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.0% | 48 | 67.6 | 0.71× |
| [M4A4 \| Radiation Hazard (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-radiation-hazard-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $92.87 92.87 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.9% | 66 | 67.6 | 0.98× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Guardian (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-guardian-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $87.68 87.68 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.8% | 56 | 67.6 | 0.83× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Spider Lily (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-spider-lily-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $81.22 81.22 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.7% | 60 | 67.6 | 0.89× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Royal Paladin (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-royal-paladin-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $76.50 76.5 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.6% | 61 | 67.6 | 0.90× |
| [StatTrak™ AUG \| Momentum (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-aug-momentum-factory-new) | 1 in 67 | $72.70 72.7 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.3% | 99 | 101.5 | 0.98× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| In Living Color (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-in-living-color-minimal-wear) | 1 in 67 | $68.02 68.02 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.1% | 87 | 101.5 | 0.86× |
| [P90 \| Shallow Grave (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-shallow-grave-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $60.07 60.07 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.5% | 141 | 135.3 | 1.04× |
| [Souvenir AWP \| Pink DDPAT (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-pink-ddpat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $57.19 57.19 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.4% | 126 | 135.3 | 0.93× |
| [AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-red-laminate-battle-scarred) | 1 in 40 | $56.08 56.08 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.9% | 203 | 169.1 | 1.20× |
| [StatTrak™ MP7 \| Bloodsport (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp7-bloodsport-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $54.34 54.34 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.8% | 175 | 169.1 | 1.03× |
| [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $53.23 53.23 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.3% | 220 | 202.9 | 1.08× |
| [FAMAS \| Bad Trip (Field-Tested) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-bad-trip-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $52.80 52.8 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.4% | 265 | 270.6 | 0.98× |
| [P90 \| Cold Blooded (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-cold-blooded-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $50.64 50.64 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.2% | 283 | 270.6 | 1.05× |
| [FAMAS \| Djinn (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-djinn-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $45.46 45.46 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.7% | 342 | 338.2 | 1.01× |
| [MAC-10 \| Propaganda (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-propaganda-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $41.75 41.75 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.3% | 352 | 338.2 | 1.04× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| In Living Color (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-in-living-color-well-worn) | 1 in 20 | $37.56 37.56 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.9% | 345 | 338.2 | 1.02× |
| [FAMAS \| Mecha Industries (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-mecha-industries-well-worn) | 1 in 20 | $36.11 36.11 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.7% | 356 | 338.2 | 1.05× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Desert-Strike (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-desert-strike-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $35.63 35.63 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.7% | 341 | 338.2 | 1.01× |
| [M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-full-throttle-well-worn) | 1 in 20 | $32.82 32.82 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.4% | 356 | 338.2 | 1.05× |
| [M4A4 \| In Living Color (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-in-living-color-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20 | $30.71 30.71 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.2% | 310 | 338.2 | 0.92× |
| [M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-full-throttle-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20 | $27.40 27.4 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.8% | 330 | 338.2 | 0.98× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| 龍王 (Dragon King) (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-dragon-king-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $26.37 26.37 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.7% | 352 | 338.2 | 1.04× |
| [M4A1-S \| Moss Quartz (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-moss-quartz-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $23.02 23.02 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.4% | 330 | 338.2 | 0.98× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Magna Carta (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-magna-carta-factory-new) | 1 in 22 | $16.03 16.03 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.5% | 293 | 304.4 | 0.96× |
| [AUG \| Fleet Flock (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-fleet-flock-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $15.25 15.25 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.9% | 213 | 202.9 | 1.05× |
| [P90 \| Blind Spot (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-blind-spot-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $13.19 13.19 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.8% | 209 | 202.9 | 1.03× |
| [P90 \| Shapewood (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-shapewood-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $11.52 11.52 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.7% | 223 | 202.9 | 1.10× |
| [StatTrak™ AUG \| Torque (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-aug-torque-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $10.75 10.75 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.7% | 207 | 202.9 | 1.02× |

Values are Hotpizza.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hotpizza:api/data`, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[Souvenir M4A4 | Eye of Horus (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a4-eye-of-horus-minimal-wear) [Хароня](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/%D0%A5%D0%B0%D1%80%D0%BE%D0%BD%D1%8F) $55.00 55 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $635 635 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 11.55x 2026-11-09 22:27 UTC

[Souvenir M4A4 | Eye of Horus (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a4-eye-of-horus-minimal-wear) [@Yarshop\_bot - халява, б](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/%40Yarshop_bot%20-%20%D1%85%D0%B0%D0%BB%D1%8F%D0%B2%D0%B0%2C%20%D0%B1) $55.00 55 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $635 635 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 11.55x 2026-11-09 20:37 UTC

[Souvenir M4A4 | Eye of Horus (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a4-eye-of-horus-minimal-wear) [Ohioan State Pee Champion](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Ohioan%20State%20Pee%20Champion) $55.00 55 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $635 635 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 11.55x 2026-11-09 06:18 UTC

[Souvenir M4A4 | Eye of Horus (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a4-eye-of-horus-minimal-wear) [s 1 k z](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/s%201%20k%20z) $55.00 55 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $635 635 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 11.55x 2026-11-03 22:46 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hotpizza&case=103)

[M4A4 | In Living Color (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-in-living-color-battle-scarred) [✪Yusuf BEY](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/%E2%9C%AAYusuf%20BEY) $55.00 55 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $30.71 30.71 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.56x 2026-11-11 14:02 UTC

[StatTrak™ M4A4 | 龍王 (Dragon King) (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-dragon-king-field-tested) [Casper👻 (LowLife)](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Casper%F0%9F%91%BB%20%28LowLife%29) $55.00 55 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $26.37 26.37 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.48x 2026-11-11 14:00 UTC

[StatTrak™ M4A4 | 龍王 (Dragon King) (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-dragon-king-field-tested) [ImStussy](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/ImStussy) $55.00 55 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $26.37 26.37 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.48x 2026-11-11 13:52 UTC

[M4A4 | Full Throttle (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-full-throttle-battle-scarred) [encore94](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/encore94) $55.00 55 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $27.40 27.4 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.50x 2026-11-11 13:51 UTC

[StatTrak™ M4A4 | In Living Color (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-in-living-color-well-worn) [encore94](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/encore94) $55.00 55 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $37.56 37.56 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.68x 2026-11-11 13:51 UTC

[AK-47 | Red Laminate (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-red-laminate-battle-scarred) [Jam Jam](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Jam%20Jam) $55.00 55 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $56.08 56.08 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 1.02x 2026-11-11 13:50 UTC

[StatTrak™ AUG | Momentum (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-aug-momentum-factory-new) [Bittah Prophet ☣](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Bittah%20Prophet%20%E2%98%A3) $55.00 55 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $72.70 72.7 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 1.32x 2026-11-11 13:48 UTC

[FAMAS | Mecha Industries (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-mecha-industries-well-worn) [Bittah Prophet ☣](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Bittah%20Prophet%20%E2%98%A3) $55.00 55 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $36.11 36.11 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.66x 2026-11-11 13:48 UTC

[StatTrak™ M4A4 | In Living Color (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-in-living-color-well-worn) [Ricky\_Piorun](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Ricky_Piorun) $55.00 55 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $37.56 37.56 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.68x 2026-11-11 13:43 UTC

[AUG | Fleet Flock (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-fleet-flock-minimal-wear) [Ricky\_Piorun](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Ricky_Piorun) $55.00 55 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $15.25 15.25 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.28x 2026-11-11 13:43 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 3 Nov, 04:28 UTC | $55.00 | 88.08% | 41 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed Covert 1.2% Ancient 2.7% restricted 4.2% classified 26.5% covert 14.6% Restricted 2.4% red 15.9% mil spec 1.0% Legendary 5.0% uncommon 4.0% #d32ee6 5.0% pink 5.0% industrial 5.0% #4b69ff 4.5% Mythical 3.0% best hit $635 (11.55x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.1% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.08 on average: an expected loss of $11.92 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt