---
title: "Pizza Guardian case on Hotpizza.gg: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Pizza Guardian ($10.00) on Hotpizza.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 101.70% from 43 items with odds, observed 99.94% over 11.6K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/104
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:34Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hotpizza.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hotpizza) / [Pizza Guardian](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/104)

# [Hotpizza.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hotpizza) · Pizza Guardian

A case on Hotpizza.gg (Premium cases), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hotpizza.gg's own item price converted from hotpizza point at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/104?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/104?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/104) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/104?window=all)

Price · $10.00 · 10 HOTPIZZA\_POINT

Advertised RTP · 101.70% · EV $10.17 from 43 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 99.94% · 11.6K openings, odds method

Variance · 2.0× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 24.7% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 65.8% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 97.19% ±7.61 1,350 openings

7 days · 100.12% ±2.83 9,770 openings

30 days · 99.94% ±2.60 11.6K openings

since tracking started · 99.94% ±2.60 11.6K openings

89.0% 97.2% 105.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/104?window=24h) | 1,350 | 97.19% ±7.61 | −1.2σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/104?window=7d) | 9,770 | 100.12% ±2.83 | −1.1σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/104) | 11.6K | 99.94% ±2.60 | −1.4σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/104?window=all) | 11.6K | 99.94% ±2.60 | −1.4σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 43 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 11.6K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) | 1 in 1,000 | $241 241 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.4% | 7 | 11.6 | 0.60× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 667 | $148 148 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.2% | 24 | 17.4 | 1.38× |
| [★ Huntsman Knife knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife) | 1 in 500 | $133 133 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.6% | 20 | 23.3 | 0.86× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Nomad Knife \| Scorched (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nomad-knife-scorched-field-tested) | 1 in 500 | $102 102 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.0% | 15 | 23.3 | 0.64× |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Freehand (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-freehand-minimal-wear) | 1 in 333 | $93.54 93.54 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.8% | 38 | 34.9 | 1.09× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Lore (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 500 | $83.04 83.04 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.6% | 14 | 23.3 | 0.60× |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Ultraviolet (Battle-Scarred) knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-ultraviolet-battle-scarred) | 1 in 333 | $62.50 62.5 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.8% | 44 | 34.9 | 1.26× |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Boreal Forest (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-boreal-forest-well-worn) | 1 in 250 | $49.79 49.79 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.0% | 45 | 46.5 | 0.97× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Boreal Forest (Battle-Scarred) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-boreal-forest-battle-scarred) | 1 in 250 | $40.44 40.44 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.6% | 51 | 46.5 | 1.10× |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Racing Green (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-racing-green-battle-scarred) | 1 in 200 | $34.27 34.27 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.7% | 62 | 58.1 | 1.07× |
| [MP9 \| Airlock (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-airlock-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $29.22 29.22 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.4% | 55 | 58.1 | 0.95× |
| [G3SG1 \| Violet Murano (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-violet-murano-minimal-wear) | 1 in 167 | $27.47 27.47 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.6% | 54 | 69.8 | 0.77× |
| [StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Rocket Pop (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-galil-ar-rocket-pop-factory-new) | 1 in 143 | $23.58 23.58 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.6% | 82 | 81.4 | 1.01× |
| [StatTrak™ Nova \| Graphite (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nova-graphite-factory-new) | 1 in 125 | $19.49 19.49 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.5% | 96 | 93.0 | 1.03× |
| [SSG 08 \| Bloodshot (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-bloodshot-well-worn) | 1 in 111 | $17.33 17.33 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.5% | 82 | 104.7 | 0.78× |
| [Galil AR \| Black Sand (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-black-sand-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $16.92 16.92 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.7% | 111 | 116.3 | 0.95× |
| [AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $15.69 15.69 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.5% | 101 | 116.3 | 0.87× |
| [XM1014 \| Banana Leaf (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-banana-leaf-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $14.45 14.45 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.4% | 107 | 116.3 | 0.92× |
| [StatTrak™ P90 \| Deathgaze (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-deathgaze-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $14.00 14 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.8% | 253 | 232.6 | 1.09× |
| [Galil AR \| Eco (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-eco-battle-scarred) | 1 in 50 | $13.50 13.5 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.7% | 227 | 232.6 | 0.98× |
| [FAMAS \| Djinn (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-djinn-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $13.26 13.26 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.6% | 244 | 232.6 | 1.05× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-leaded-glass-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $13.07 13.07 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.6% | 224 | 232.6 | 0.96× |
| [MP9 \| Airlock (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-airlock-battle-scarred) | 1 in 40 | $12.62 12.62 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.1% | 300 | 290.7 | 1.03× |
| [Nova \| Antique (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-antique-minimal-wear) | 1 in 40 | $11.62 11.62 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.9% | 297 | 290.7 | 1.02× |
| [StatTrak™ MP9 \| Airlock (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-airlock-well-worn) | 1 in 40 | $11.56 11.56 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.8% | 274 | 290.7 | 0.94× |
| [MAC-10 \| Aloha (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-aloha-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $11.41 11.41 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.8% | 296 | 290.7 | 1.02× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Bamboo Shadow (Minimal Wear) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-bamboo-shadow-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $10.69 10.69 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.2% | 329 | 348.9 | 0.94× |
| [StatTrak™ R8 Revolver \| Llama Cannon (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-r8-revolver-llama-cannon-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $10.32 10.32 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.1% | 446 | 465.2 | 0.96× |
| [P250 \| Inferno (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-inferno-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $9.04 9.04 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.6% | 446 | 465.2 | 0.96× |
| [StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Wild Child (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ump-45-wild-child-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $7.74 7.74 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.4% | 534 | 523.3 | 1.02× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Griffin (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-griffin-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $7.26 7.26 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.6% | 578 | 581.5 | 0.99× |
| [SG 553 \| Traveler (Field-Tested) weapon · Industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-traveler-field-tested) | 1 in 19 | $6.91 6.91 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.7% | 652 | 628.0 | 1.04× |
| [AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-well-worn) | 1 in 18 | $6.53 6.53 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.5% | 625 | 639.6 | 0.98× |
| [StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Re-Entry (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-tec-9-re-entry-factory-new) | 1 in 18 | $6.52 6.52 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.5% | 164 | 639.6 | 0.26× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Phobos (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-phobos-minimal-wear) | 1 in 18 | $5.68 5.68 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.1% | 667 | 639.6 | 1.04× |
| [M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-well-worn) | 1 in 20 | $5.18 5.18 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.5% | 645 | 581.5 | 1.11× |
| [M4A1-S \| Liquidation (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-liquidation-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $5.11 5.11 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.5% | 592 | 581.5 | 1.02× |
| [MP9 \| Goo (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-goo-factory-new) | 1 in 23 | $4.70 4.7 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.0% | 482 | 500.1 | 0.96× |
| [MAC-10 \| Whitefish (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-whitefish-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $4.60 4.6 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.8% | 458 | 465.2 | 0.98× |
| [AUG \| Death by Puppy (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-death-by-puppy-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $4.44 4.44 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.3% | 373 | 354.7 | 1.05× |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Blood Tiger (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-blood-tiger-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $4.19 4.19 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.2% | 372 | 348.9 | 1.07× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Blaze (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-blaze-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $3.49 3.49 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.0% | 373 | 348.9 | 1.07× |
| [USP-S \| Guardian (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-guardian-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $2.63 2.63 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.8% | 316 | 348.9 | 0.91× |

Values are Hotpizza.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hotpizza:api/data`, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hotpizza&case=104)

[StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Re-Entry (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-tec-9-re-entry-factory-new) [🎀 ShaKo 🎀](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/%F0%9F%8E%80%20ShaKo%20%F0%9F%8E%80) $10.00 10 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $6.52 6.52 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.65x 2026-11-11 13:33 UTC

[StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Wild Child (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ump-45-wild-child-minimal-wear) [SlothDemon](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/SlothDemon) $10.00 10 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $7.74 7.74 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.77x 2026-11-11 13:26 UTC

[StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Wild Child (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ump-45-wild-child-minimal-wear) [SlothDemon](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/SlothDemon) $10.00 10 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $7.74 7.74 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.77x 2026-11-11 13:26 UTC

[M4A1-S | Liquidation (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-liquidation-minimal-wear) [Sammy39](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Sammy39) $10.00 10 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $5.11 5.11 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.51x 2026-11-11 13:26 UTC

[SSG 08 | Bloodshot (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-bloodshot-well-worn) [smelvin](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/smelvin) $10.00 10 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $17.33 17.33 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 1.73x 2026-11-11 13:26 UTC

[AK-47 | Phantom Disruptor (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-well-worn) [Sammy39](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Sammy39) $10.00 10 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $6.53 6.53 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.65x 2026-11-11 13:26 UTC

[Galil AR | Black Sand (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-black-sand-factory-new) [smelvin](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/smelvin) $10.00 10 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $16.92 16.92 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 1.69x 2026-11-11 13:26 UTC

[Galil AR | Black Sand (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-black-sand-factory-new) [BAYTAR](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/BAYTAR) $10.00 10 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $16.92 16.92 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 1.69x 2026-11-11 13:24 UTC

[StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Leaded Glass (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-leaded-glass-field-tested) [FYGA](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/FYGA) $10.00 10 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $13.07 13.07 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 1.31x 2026-11-11 13:24 UTC

[SG 553 | Traveler (Field-Tested) weapon · Industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-traveler-field-tested) [smelvin](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/smelvin) $10.00 10 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $6.91 6.91 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.69x 2026-11-11 13:22 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 9 Nov, 14:05 UTC | $10.00 | 101.70% | 43 |
| 3 Nov, 04:28 UTC | $10.00 | 101.74% | 43 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 1.0% covert knife 0.6% other 0.3% #ffd700 0.4% extraordinary 0.5% classified 20.9% blue 3.6% mil spec 8.2% restricted 25.1% industrial 1.0% Legendary 4.0% pink 12.5% #d32ee6 2.5% Common 3.0% Industrial 5.4% violet 5.0% milspec 3.0% #8847ff 3.0% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 101.7% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $101.70 on average: an expected loss of $0.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt