---
title: "Mad Case case on Hotpizza.gg: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Mad Case ($3,000.00) on Hotpizza.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 81.66% from 63 items with odds, observed 82.95% over 1,296 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/111
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:41Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hotpizza.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hotpizza) / [Mad Case](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/111)

# [Hotpizza.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hotpizza) · Mad Case

A case on Hotpizza.gg (Premium cases), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hotpizza.gg's own item price converted from hotpizza point at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/111?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/111?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/111) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/111?window=all)

Price · $3,000.00 · 3,000 HOTPIZZA\_POINT

Advertised RTP · 81.66% · EV $2,449.82 from 63 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 82.95% · 1,296 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.1× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 13.1% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 82.9% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 75.63% ±16.51 153 openings

7 days · 81.11% ±6.24 1,072 openings

30 days · 82.95% ±5.67 1,296 openings

since tracking started · 82.95% ±5.67 1,296 openings

58.5% 75.8% 93.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/111?window=24h) | 153 | 75.63% ±16.5 | −0.7σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/111?window=7d) | 1,072 | 81.11% ±6.24 | −0.2σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/111) | 1,296 | 82.95% ±5.67 | +0.4σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/111?window=all) | 1,296 | 82.95% ±5.67 | +0.4σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 63 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,297 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Factory New) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $17.9K 17,852 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.6% | 2 | 6.5 | 0.31× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Howl (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-howl-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $17.2K 17,162 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.5% | 9 | 6.5 | 1.39× |
| [AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $15.3K 15,264 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.1% | 4 | 6.5 | 0.62× |
| [AWP \| Gungnir (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-gungnir-factory-new) | 1 in 167 | $14.8K 14,775 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.6% | 9 | 7.8 | 1.16× |
| [AWP \| Gungnir (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-gungnir-minimal-wear) | 1 in 167 | $13.1K 13,107 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.2% | 12 | 7.8 | 1.54× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Howl (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-howl-minimal-wear) | 1 in 143 | $12K 12,000 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.4% | 5 | 9.1 | 0.55× |
| [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Minimal Wear) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 125 | $10.5K 10,531 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.4% | 15 | 10.4 | 1.45× |
| [AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-field-tested) | 1 in 111 | $9,578 9,578 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.5% | 11 | 11.7 | 0.94× |
| [AWP \| Gungnir (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-gungnir-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $9,376 9,376 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.8% | 12 | 13.0 | 0.93× |
| [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $8,347 8,347 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.4% | 14 | 13.0 | 1.08× |
| [AWP \| Gungnir (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-gungnir-well-worn) | 1 in 100 | $8,200 8,200 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.3% | 14 | 13.0 | 1.08× |
| [M4A4 \| Howl (Factory New) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $7,837 7,837 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.2% | 16 | 13.0 | 1.23× |
| [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $6,409 6,409 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.6% | 10 | 13.0 | 0.77× |
| [M4A4 \| Howl (Minimal Wear) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $6,063 6,063 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.5% | 9 | 13.0 | 0.69× |
| [AWP \| Medusa (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $5,753 5,753 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.3% | 14 | 13.0 | 1.08× |
| [AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-well-worn) | 1 in 100 | $5,676 5,676 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.3% | 11 | 13.0 | 0.85× |
| [AK-47 \| Hydroponic (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-hydroponic-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $4,195 4,195 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.7% | 15 | 13.0 | 1.16× |
| [AUG \| Akihabara Accept (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-akihabara-accept-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $3,884 3,884 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.6% | 8 | 13.0 | 0.62× |
| [AWP \| Medusa (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $3,317 3,317 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.4% | 18 | 13.0 | 1.39× |
| [AWP \| The Prince (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $3,249 3,249 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.3% | 6 | 13.0 | 0.46× |
| [Negev \| Mjölnir (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-mjolnir-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $2,982 2,982 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.2% | 15 | 13.0 | 1.16× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-fire-serpent-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $2,883 2,883 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.2% | 45 | 13.0 | 3.47× |
| [AK-47 \| X-Ray (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $2,643 2,643 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.1% | 23 | 13.0 | 1.77× |
| [AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-factory-new) | 1 in 95 | $2,573 2,573 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.1% | 18 | 13.6 | 1.32× |
| [AWP \| The Prince (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-minimal-wear) | 1 in 67 | $2,509 2,509 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.5% | 23 | 19.5 | 1.18× |
| [AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-factory-new) | 1 in 67 | $2,262 2,262 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.4% | 16 | 19.5 | 0.82× |
| [AWP \| The Prince (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-field-tested) | 1 in 67 | $2,102 2,102 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.3% | 14 | 19.5 | 0.72× |
| [AWP \| Medusa (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-battle-scarred) | 1 in 67 | $2,039 2,039 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.2% | 18 | 19.5 | 0.93× |
| [AWP \| Medusa (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-well-worn) | 1 in 67 | $2,027 2,027 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.2% | 20 | 19.5 | 1.03× |
| [AWP \| The Prince (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-battle-scarred) | 1 in 67 | $1,981 1,981 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.2% | 24 | 19.5 | 1.23× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-wasteland-rebel-factory-new) | 1 in 67 | $1,924 1,924 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.2% | 19 | 19.5 | 0.98× |
| [M4A1-S \| Hot Rod (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-minimal-wear) | 1 in 67 | $1,857 1,857 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.1% | 21 | 19.5 | 1.08× |
| [AWP \| Desert Hydra (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-desert-hydra-factory-new) | 1 in 67 | $1,628 1,628 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.0% | 21 | 19.5 | 1.08× |
| [AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-minimal-wear) | 1 in 67 | $1,607 1,607 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.0% | 12 | 19.5 | 0.62× |
| [AK-47 \| Hydroponic (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-hydroponic-minimal-wear) | 1 in 67 | $1,594 1,594 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.0% | 20 | 19.5 | 1.03× |
| [M4A1-S \| Imminent Danger (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-imminent-danger-factory-new) | 1 in 67 | $1,577 1,577 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.0% | 15 | 19.5 | 0.77× |
| [AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-well-worn) | 1 in 67 | $1,566 1,566 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.0% | 15 | 19.5 | 0.77× |
| [M4A1-S \| Welcome to the Jungle (Factory New) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $1,542 1,542 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.3% | 26 | 25.9 | 1.00× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-fire-serpent-battle-scarred) | 1 in 50 | $1,444 1,444 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.2% | 21 | 25.9 | 0.81× |
| [AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $1,408 1,408 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.1% | 29 | 25.9 | 1.12× |
| [M4A1-S \| Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $1,369 1,369 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.7% | 37 | 38.9 | 0.95× |
| [AWP \| Desert Hydra (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-desert-hydra-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $1,357 1,357 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.7% | 35 | 38.9 | 0.90× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Vulcan (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-vulcan-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $1,353 1,353 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.7% | 37 | 38.9 | 0.95× |
| [AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $1,210 1,210 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.5% | 39 | 38.9 | 1.00× |
| [AWP \| Desert Hydra (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-desert-hydra-battle-scarred) | 1 in 33 | $1,151 1,151 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.4% | 14 | 38.9 | 0.36× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Printstream (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-printstream-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $1,068 1,068 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.3% | 41 | 38.9 | 1.05× |
| [M4A4 \| The Coalition (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-coalition-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $1,025 1,025 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.3% | 45 | 38.9 | 1.16× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Lightning Strike (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) | 1 in 43 | $1,009 1,009 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.0% | 34 | 30.5 | 1.12× |
| [M4A1-S \| Imminent Danger (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-imminent-danger-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $994 994 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.8% | 22 | 25.9 | 0.85× |
| [Souvenir AWP \| Desert Hydra (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-desert-hydra-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $960 960 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.8% | 25 | 25.9 | 0.96× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-fuel-injector-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $956 956 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.8% | 28 | 25.9 | 1.08× |
| [M4A1-S \| Welcome to the Jungle (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $829 829 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.7% | 34 | 25.9 | 1.31× |
| [M4A4 \| Modern Hunter (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-modern-hunter-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $741 741 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.6% | 15 | 25.9 | 0.58× |
| [M4A1-S \| Imminent Danger (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-imminent-danger-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $725 725 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.6% | 25 | 25.9 | 0.96× |
| [M4A4 \| Eye of Horus (Factory New) weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-eye-of-horus-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $707 707 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.6% | 16 | 25.9 | 0.62× |
| [StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Blood in the Water (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-blood-in-the-water-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $693 693 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.6% | 6 | 25.9 | 0.23× |
| [AWP \| Lightning Strike (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-lightning-strike-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $662 662 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.5% | 30 | 25.9 | 1.16× |
| [AWP \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $587 587 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.5% | 19 | 25.9 | 0.73× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Printstream (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-printstream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $555 555 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.5% | 26 | 25.9 | 1.00× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $477 477 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.4% | 6 | 25.9 | 0.23× |
| [AWP \| LongDog (Factory New) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-longdog-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $459 459 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.4% | 25 | 25.9 | 0.96× |
| [AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $448 448 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.4% | 20 | 25.9 | 0.77× |
| [AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wasteland-rebel-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $400 400 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.3% | 32 | 25.9 | 1.23× |

Values are Hotpizza.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hotpizza:api/data`, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Factory New) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-factory-new) [danya -salami=)](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/danya%20-salami%3D%29) $3,000 3,000 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $17.9K 17,852 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 5.95x 2026-11-03 21:13 UTC

[AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Factory New) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-factory-new) [Bărbatul Popa](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/B%C4%83rbatul%20Popa) $3,000 3,000 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $17.9K 17,852 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 5.95x 2026-11-03 05:27 UTC

[StatTrak™ M4A4 | Howl (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-howl-factory-new) [PandaMonium](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/PandaMonium) $3,000 3,000 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $17.2K 17,162 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 5.72x 2026-11-10 22:43 UTC

[StatTrak™ M4A4 | Howl (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-howl-factory-new) [carrot](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/carrot) $3,000 3,000 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $17.2K 17,162 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 5.72x 2026-11-09 10:05 UTC

[StatTrak™ M4A4 | Howl (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-howl-factory-new) [Elsuperbuenardo86 || TF2EASY.COM](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Elsuperbuenardo86%20%7C%7C%20TF2EASY.COM) $3,000 3,000 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $17.2K 17,162 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 5.72x 2026-11-08 16:16 UTC

[StatTrak™ M4A4 | Howl (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-howl-factory-new) [Mielody](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Mielody) $3,000 3,000 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $17.2K 17,162 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 5.72x 2026-11-08 13:11 UTC

[StatTrak™ M4A4 | Howl (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-howl-factory-new) [HUAN TAP](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/HUAN%20TAP) $3,000 3,000 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $17.2K 17,162 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 5.72x 2026-11-08 13:06 UTC

[StatTrak™ M4A4 | Howl (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-howl-factory-new) [Mikalkis](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Mikalkis) $3,000 3,000 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $17.2K 17,162 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 5.72x 2026-11-05 23:30 UTC

[StatTrak™ M4A4 | Howl (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-howl-factory-new) [edi.](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/edi.) $3,000 3,000 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $17.2K 17,162 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 5.72x 2026-11-04 19:33 UTC

[StatTrak™ M4A4 | Howl (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-howl-factory-new) [freelot](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/freelot) $3,000 3,000 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $17.2K 17,162 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 5.72x 2026-11-04 06:06 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hotpizza&case=111)

[M4A4 | Modern Hunter (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-modern-hunter-factory-new) [franczesko paltegumi](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/franczesko%20paltegumi) $3,000 3,000 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $741 741 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.25x 2026-11-11 13:34 UTC

[M4A4 | Eye of Horus (Factory New) weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-eye-of-horus-factory-new) [PHANTER](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/PHANTER) $3,000 3,000 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $707 707 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.24x 2026-11-11 13:00 UTC

[AWP | Desert Hydra (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-desert-hydra-battle-scarred) [BryanH(insane)](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/BryanH%28insane%29) $3,000 3,000 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $1,151 1,151 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.38x 2026-11-11 13:00 UTC

[AWP | Dragon Lore (Minimal Wear) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-minimal-wear) [Liz\`\[A\].eZ](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Liz%60%5BA%5D.eZ) $3,000 3,000 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $10.5K 10,531 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 3.51x 2026-11-11 12:57 UTC

[M4A4 | The Coalition (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-coalition-factory-new) [02,9qf,92f9.-11](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/02%2C9qf%2C92f9.-11) $3,000 3,000 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $1,025 1,025 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.34x 2026-11-11 12:26 UTC

[AK-47 | Wasteland Rebel (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wasteland-rebel-factory-new) [banany](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/banany) $3,000 3,000 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $400 400 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.13x 2026-11-11 12:13 UTC

[AK-47 | X-Ray (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-factory-new) [Lamont](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Lamont) $3,000 3,000 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $2,643 2,643 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.88x 2026-11-11 12:11 UTC

[M4A1-S | Imminent Danger (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-imminent-danger-field-tested) [1NERTAjs](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/1NERTAjs) $3,000 3,000 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $725 725 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.24x 2026-11-11 12:11 UTC

[M4A1-S | Imminent Danger (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-imminent-danger-field-tested) [PgC | ProViKing](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/PgC%20%7C%20ProViKing) $3,000 3,000 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $725 725 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.24x 2026-11-11 12:00 UTC

[AK-47 | Case Hardened (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-case-hardened-factory-new) [Omegalaklala](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Omegalaklala) $3,000 3,000 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $448 448 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.15x 2026-11-11 11:54 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 9 Nov, 14:05 UTC | $3,000 | 81.66% | 63 |
| 3 Nov, 07:29 UTC | $3,000 | 81.70% | 63 |
| 3 Nov, 04:28 UTC | $3,000 | 81.72% | 63 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed legendary 4.3% contraband 3.2% covert 72.5% classified 12.0% epic 2.0% restricted 2.0% #eb4b4b 2.0% red 2.0% best hit $17.9K (5.95x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 81.7% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $81.66 on average: an expected loss of $18.34 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt