---
title: "Mr. Experiment case on Hotpizza.gg: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Mr. Experiment ($2.75) on Hotpizza.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 86.93% from 36 items with odds, observed 81.41% over 23.3K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/112
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:32Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hotpizza.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hotpizza) / [Mr. Experiment](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/112)

# [Hotpizza.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hotpizza) · Mr. Experiment

A case on Hotpizza.gg (BACK2SCHOOL), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hotpizza.gg's own item price converted from hotpizza point at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/112?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/112?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/112) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/112?window=all)

Price · $2.75 · 2.75 HOTPIZZA\_POINT

Advertised RTP · 86.93% · EV $2.39 from 36 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 81.41% · 23.3K openings, odds method

Variance · 5.2× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 18 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 90.5% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 81.93% ±8.55 2,720 openings

7 days · 82.37% ±3.20 19.4K openings

30 days · 81.41% ±2.92 23.3K openings

since tracking started · 81.41% ±2.92 23.3K openings

72.5% 81.8% 91.0%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 86.93% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (78.48% – 84.33%, 23,277 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/112?window=24h) | 2,720 | 81.93% ±8.55 | −1.1σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/112?window=7d) | 19.4K | 82.37% ±3.20 | −2.8σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/112) | 23.3K | 81.41% ±2.92 | −3.7σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/112?window=all) | 23.3K | 81.41% ±2.92 | −3.7σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 36 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 23.4K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 1,000 | $104 104 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.3% | 26 | 23.3 | 1.11× |
| [M4A1-S \| Player Two (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-field-tested) | 1 in 500 | $55.25 55.25 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.6% | 28 | 46.7 | 0.60× |
| [Souvenir Galil AR \| Cerberus (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-galil-ar-cerberus-field-tested) | 1 in 333 | $41.71 41.71 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 5.2% | 59 | 70.0 | 0.84× |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| The Traitor (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-the-traitor-battle-scarred) | 1 in 250 | $40.20 40.2 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 6.7% | 77 | 93.4 | 0.82× |
| [P250 \| Undertow (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-undertow-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $36.64 36.64 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 7.7% | 98 | 116.7 | 0.84× |
| [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Fowl Play (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-fowl-play-battle-scarred) | 1 in 167 | $17.32 17.32 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.3% | 114 | 140.1 | 0.81× |
| [P2000 \| Obsidian (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-obsidian-factory-new) | 1 in 143 | $16.27 16.27 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.8% | 139 | 163.4 | 0.85× |
| [StatTrak™ P250 \| Visions (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-visions-factory-new) | 1 in 125 | $15.66 15.66 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 5.2% | 161 | 186.8 | 0.86× |
| [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-battle-scarred) | 1 in 111 | $12.43 12.43 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.7% | 218 | 210.1 | 1.04× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Griffin (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-griffin-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $6.83 6.83 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.9% | 240 | 233.5 | 1.03× |
| [M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-evil-daimyo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $5.29 5.29 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.2% | 201 | 233.5 | 0.86× |
| [AWP \| Atheris (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-atheris-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $4.46 4.46 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.9% | 258 | 233.5 | 1.10× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Buddy (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-buddy-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $3.28 3.28 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.4% | 248 | 233.5 | 1.06× |
| [Galil AR \| Rocket Pop (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-rocket-pop-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $3.07 3.07 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.3% | 247 | 233.5 | 1.06× |
| [MAC-10 \| Pipsqueak (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-pipsqueak-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $2.71 2.71 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.3% | 471 | 467.0 | 1.01× |
| [USP-S \| Royal Guard (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-royal-guard-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $2.37 2.37 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.0% | 467 | 467.0 | 1.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Electrum (Minimal Wear) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-electrum-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $2.05 2.05 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.7% | 467 | 467.0 | 1.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Crossfade (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-crossfade-field-tested) | 1 in 40 | $1.98 1.98 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.1% | 599 | 583.7 | 1.03× |
| [StatTrak™ P90 \| Neoqueen (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-neoqueen-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $1.81 1.81 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.3% | 748 | 700.5 | 1.07× |
| [AK-47 \| Steel Delta (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-steel-delta-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $1.78 1.78 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.2% | 675 | 700.5 | 0.96× |
| [Galil AR \| Galigator (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-galigator-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $1.70 1.7 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.1% | 671 | 700.5 | 0.96× |
| [StatTrak™ MP7 \| Just Smile (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp7-just-smile-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $1.69 1.69 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.1% | 727 | 700.5 | 1.04× |
| [StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Grand Prix (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ump-45-grand-prix-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $1.57 1.57 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.0% | 650 | 700.5 | 0.93× |
| [UMP-45 \| Moonrise (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-moonrise-factory-new) | 1 in 29 | $1.43 1.43 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.1% | 843 | 817.2 | 1.03× |
| [USP-S \| Check Engine (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-check-engine-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $1.39 1.39 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.3% | 960 | 934.0 | 1.03× |
| [StatTrak™ Nova \| Toy Soldier (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nova-toy-soldier-well-worn) | 1 in 25 | $1.28 1.28 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.1% | 921 | 934.0 | 0.99× |
| [M4A4 \| Turbine (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-turbine-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $1.15 1.15 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.4% | 1,202 | 1167.5 | 1.03× |
| [StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Lapis Gator (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-lapis-gator-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $1.04 1.04 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.6% | 1,318 | 1401.0 | 0.94× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Fraise Crane (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fraise-crane-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $0.96 0.96 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.8% | 1,600 | 1634.5 | 0.98× |
| [M4A4 \| Zubastick (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-zubastick-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $0.80 0.8 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.3% | 1,640 | 1634.5 | 1.00× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Hydro Strike (Battle-Scarred) weapon · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-hydro-strike-battle-scarred) | 1 in 18 | $0.79 0.79 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.8% | 1,316 | 1284.2 | 1.02× |
| [USP-S \| Black Lotus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-black-lotus-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20 | $0.74 0.74 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.5% | 1,171 | 1167.5 | 1.00× |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| PC-GRN (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-pc-grn-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $0.62 0.62 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.3% | 1,209 | 1167.5 | 1.04× |
| [StatTrak™ PP-Bizon \| RMX (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-pp-bizon-rmx-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $0.52 0.52 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.1% | 1,205 | 1167.5 | 1.03× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Shred (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-shred-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $0.43 0.43 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.9% | 1,159 | 1167.5 | 0.99× |
| [Glock-18 \| Green Line (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-green-line-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $0.31 0.31 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.6% | 1,201 | 1167.5 | 1.03× |

Values are Hotpizza.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hotpizza:api/data`, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hotpizza&case=112)

[USP-S | Check Engine (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-check-engine-factory-new) [Ricky\_Piorun](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Ricky_Piorun) $2.75 2.75 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $1.39 1.39 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.51x 2026-11-11 13:32 UTC

[USP-S | Black Lotus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-black-lotus-battle-scarred) [Ricky\_Piorun](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Ricky_Piorun) $2.75 2.75 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $0.74 0.74 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.27x 2026-11-11 13:32 UTC

[M4A1-S | Electrum (Minimal Wear) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-electrum-minimal-wear) [Gawactic](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Gawactic) $2.75 2.75 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $2.05 2.05 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.75x 2026-11-11 13:30 UTC

[M4A4 | Zubastick (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-zubastick-factory-new) [Bashar Al Assad](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Bashar%20Al%20Assad) $2.75 2.75 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $0.80 0.8 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.29x 2026-11-11 13:30 UTC

[StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | RMX (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-pp-bizon-rmx-minimal-wear) [kaijin1go](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/kaijin1go) $2.75 2.75 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $0.52 0.52 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.19x 2026-11-11 13:28 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Hydro Strike (Battle-Scarred) weapon · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-hydro-strike-battle-scarred) [kaijin1go](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/kaijin1go) $2.75 2.75 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $0.79 0.79 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.29x 2026-11-11 13:28 UTC

[M4A4 | Zubastick (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-zubastick-factory-new) [fygozerAA](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/fygozerAA) $2.75 2.75 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $0.80 0.8 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.29x 2026-11-11 13:26 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fraise-crane-minimal-wear) [eternity :v](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/eternity%20%3Av) $2.75 2.75 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $0.96 0.96 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.35x 2026-11-11 13:26 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Hydro Strike (Battle-Scarred) weapon · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-hydro-strike-battle-scarred) [Danjgem](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Danjgem) $2.75 2.75 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $0.79 0.79 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.29x 2026-11-11 13:26 UTC

[M4A4 | Turbine (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-turbine-field-tested) [𝓛𝓲𝓬𝓴 𝓶𝓮](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/%F0%9D%93%9B%F0%9D%93%B2%F0%9D%93%AC%F0%9D%93%B4%20%F0%9D%93%B6%F0%9D%93%AE) $2.75 2.75 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $1.15 1.15 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.42x 2026-11-11 13:26 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 3 Nov, 07:29 UTC | $2.75 | 86.93% | 36 |
| 3 Nov, 04:28 UTC | $2.75 | 86.85% | 36 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.7% restricted 18.5% classified 2.8% mil spec 6.0% Rare 9.0% Mythical 5.0% uncommon 2.0% blue 14.5% violet 8.0% milspec 6.0% #4b69ff 12.0% common 10.5% other 5.0% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 86.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $86.93 on average: an expected loss of $13.07 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt