--- title: "The Sharp-sighted case on Hotpizza.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "The Sharp-sighted ($4.99) on Hotpizza.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.67% from 30 items with odds, observed 88.64% over 16.9K openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/113 rendered: 2026-11-11T17:03Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hotpizza.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hotpizza) / [The Sharp-sighted](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/113) # [Hotpizza.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hotpizza) · The Sharp-sighted A case on Hotpizza.gg (BACK2SCHOOL), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hotpizza.gg's own item price converted from hotpizza point at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/113?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/113?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/113) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/113?window=all) Price · $4.99 · 4.99 HOTPIZZA\_POINT Advertised RTP · 88.67% · EV $4.42 from 30 items Observed RTP, 30d · 88.64% · 16.9K openings, odds method Variance · 0.7× · of price², per opening Tail share · 29.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 71.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 90.66% ±3.69 1,895 openings 7 days · 88.60% ±1.36 13.9K openings 30 days · 88.64% ±1.24 16.9K openings since tracking started · 88.64% ±1.24 16.9K openings 86.5% 90.8% 95.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/113?window=24h) | 1,895 | 90.66% ±3.69 | +1.1σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/113?window=7d) | 13.9K | 88.60% ±1.36 | +0.0σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/113) | 16.9K | 88.64% ±1.24 | +0.1σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/113?window=all) | 16.9K | 88.64% ±1.24 | +0.1σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 30 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 16.9K openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Gut Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 10,000 | $172 172 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.4% | 7 | 1.7 | 4.14× | | [★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-falchion-knife-safari-mesh-field-tested) | 1 in 1,111 | $70.30 70.3 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.4% | 14 | 15.2 | 0.92× | | [Dual Berettas \| (Factory New) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $29.64 29.64 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.7% | 19 | 16.9 | 1.12× | | [StatTrak™ MP5-SD \| Phosphor (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp5-sd-phosphor-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $28.64 28.64 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.3% | 28 | 33.8 | 0.83× | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Head Shot (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-head-shot-well-worn) | 1 in 333 | $25.50 25.5 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.7% | 43 | 50.7 | 0.85× | | [Souvenir M4A4 \| Red DDPAT (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a4-red-ddpat-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $20.17 20.17 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.3% | 89 | 84.5 | 1.05× | | [StatTrak™ Sawed-Off \| Wasteland Princess (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sawed-off-wasteland-princess-minimal-wear) | 1 in 250 | $15.29 15.29 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.4% | 66 | 67.6 | 0.98× | | [UMP-45 \| Primal Saber (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-primal-saber-minimal-wear) | 1 in 125 | $12.87 12.87 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.3% | 129 | 135.3 | 0.95× | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-ice-coaled-well-worn) | 1 in 100 | $12.12 12.12 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.7% | 152 | 169.1 | 0.90× | | [StatTrak™ AWP \| Ice Coaled (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-ice-coaled-well-worn) | 1 in 67 | $11.72 11.72 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.0% | 205 | 253.6 | 0.81× | | [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Shinobu (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-shinobu-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $8.96 8.96 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.1% | 311 | 338.2 | 0.92× | | [StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Galigator (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-galil-ar-galigator-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $7.51 7.51 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.2% | 425 | 422.7 | 1.01× | | [SSG 08 \| Rapid Transit (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-rapid-transit-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $6.55 6.55 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.4% | 559 | 507.2 | 1.10× | | [StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Momentum (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ump-45-momentum-field-tested) | 1 in 28 | $6.42 6.42 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 5.2% | 625 | 608.7 | 1.03× | | [M4A4 \| Magnesium (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-magnesium-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $5.68 5.68 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 5.1% | 186 | 676.3 | 0.28× | | [AWP \| Safari Mesh (Factory New) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-safari-mesh-factory-new) | 1 in 22 | $5.42 5.42 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 5.5% | 745 | 760.9 | 0.98× | | [MP9 \| Arctic Tri-Tone (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-arctic-tri-tone-factory-new) | 1 in 22 | $5.04 5.04 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 5.1% | 180 | 760.9 | 0.24× | | [StatTrak™ MAG-7 \| Heat (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mag-7-heat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $4.52 4.52 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 5.1% | 845 | 845.4 | 1.00× | | [AK-47 \| Slate (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-slate-field-tested) | 1 in 18 | $4.43 4.43 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 5.5% | 962 | 929.9 | 1.03× | | [SG 553 \| Integrale (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-integrale-well-worn) | 1 in 18 | $3.76 3.76 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.7% | 869 | 929.9 | 0.93× | | [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Magnesium (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-magnesium-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $3.62 3.62 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.9% | 1,046 | 1014.5 | 1.03× | | [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Choppa (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-choppa-factory-new) | 1 in 15 | $3.52 3.52 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 5.2% | 319 | 1099.0 | 0.29× | | [USP-S \| Cortex (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-battle-scarred) | 1 in 17 | $3.46 3.46 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.7% | 1,024 | 1014.5 | 1.01× | | [SSG 08 \| Spring Twilly (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-spring-twilly-factory-new) | 1 in 18 | $3.35 3.35 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.2% | 913 | 929.9 | 0.98× | | [StatTrak™ P250 \| Wingshot (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-wingshot-battle-scarred) | 1 in 18 | $2.59 2.59 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.2% | 954 | 929.9 | 1.03× | | [MP7 \| Just Smile (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-just-smile-factory-new) | 1 in 18 | $2.42 2.42 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.0% | 941 | 929.9 | 1.01× | | [Glock-18 \| Nuclear Garden (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-nuclear-garden-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $1.91 1.91 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.2% | 827 | 845.4 | 0.98× | | [Dual Berettas \| Sweet Little Angels (Well-Worn) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-sweet-little-angels-well-worn) | 1 in 20 | $1.90 1.9 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.1% | 900 | 845.4 | 1.06× | | [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Magnesium (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-magnesium-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $1.67 1.67 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.9% | 864 | 845.4 | 1.02× | | [StatTrak™ MAG-7 \| Cobalt Core (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mag-7-cobalt-core-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $1.25 1.25 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.4% | 802 | 845.4 | 0.95× | Values are Hotpizza.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hotpizza:api/data`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hotpizza&case=113) [StatTrak™ P250 | Wingshot (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-wingshot-battle-scarred) [Benowinner](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Benowinner) $4.99 4.99 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $2.59 2.59 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.52x 2026-11-11 17:02 UTC [Dual Berettas | Sweet Little Angels (Well-Worn) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-sweet-little-angels-well-worn) [Benowinner](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Benowinner) $4.99 4.99 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $1.90 1.9 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.38x 2026-11-11 17:02 UTC [StatTrak™ P250 | Wingshot (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-wingshot-battle-scarred) [cAlm](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/cAlm) $4.99 4.99 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $2.59 2.59 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.52x 2026-11-11 16:58 UTC [SSG 08 | Spring Twilly (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-spring-twilly-factory-new) [flawless yeah...](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/flawless%20yeah...) $4.99 4.99 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $3.35 3.35 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.67x 2026-11-11 16:58 UTC [StatTrak™ M4A4 | Magnesium (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-magnesium-field-tested) [NASO](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/NASO) $4.99 4.99 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $1.67 1.67 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.33x 2026-11-11 16:58 UTC [StatTrak™ M4A4 | Magnesium (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-magnesium-minimal-wear) [MatCumbo](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/MatCumbo) $4.99 4.99 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $3.62 3.62 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.73x 2026-11-11 16:58 UTC [SSG 08 | Rapid Transit (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-rapid-transit-factory-new) [cAlm](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/cAlm) $4.99 4.99 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $6.55 6.55 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 1.31x 2026-11-11 16:58 UTC [StatTrak™ M4A4 | Magnesium (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-magnesium-minimal-wear) [flawless yeah...](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/flawless%20yeah...) $4.99 4.99 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $3.62 3.62 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.73x 2026-11-11 16:58 UTC [StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Heat (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mag-7-heat-minimal-wear) [NASO](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/NASO) $4.99 4.99 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $4.52 4.52 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.91x 2026-11-11 16:58 UTC [M4A4 | Magnesium (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-magnesium-factory-new) [MatCumbo](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/MatCumbo) $4.99 4.99 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $5.68 5.68 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 1.14x 2026-11-11 16:58 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 9 Nov, 14:05 UTC | $4.99 | 88.67% | 30 | | 3 Nov, 07:29 UTC | $4.99 | 88.55% | 30 | | 3 Nov, 04:28 UTC | $4.99 | 88.64% | 30 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 0.3% covert knife 0.1% other 0.1% #d32ee6 0.2% restricted 10.0% Classified 4.0% classified 9.3% #d32ce6 2.0% Mythical 13.0% violet 8.5% mil spec 15.0% Industrial Grade 4.5% pink 5.5% #4b69ff 6.5% Mil Spec Grade 5.5% #8847ff 5.5% uncommon 5.0% milspec 5.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.7% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.67 on average: an expected loss of $11.33 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt