---
title: "The Brainynator case on Hotpizza.gg: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "The Brainynator ($11.99) on Hotpizza.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 86.86% from 37 items with odds, observed 85.45% over 11.3K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/114
rendered: 2026-11-11T16:59Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hotpizza.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hotpizza) / [The Brainynator](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/114)

# [Hotpizza.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hotpizza) · The Brainynator

A case on Hotpizza.gg (BACK2SCHOOL), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hotpizza.gg's own item price converted from hotpizza point at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/114?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/114?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/114) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/114?window=all)

Price · $11.99 · 11.99 HOTPIZZA\_POINT

Advertised RTP · 86.86% · EV $10.41 from 37 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 85.45% · 11.3K openings, odds method

Variance · 1.6× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 26.9% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 76.7% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 80.62% ±7.01 1,286 openings

7 days · 86.19% ±2.59 9,410 openings

30 days · 85.45% ±2.36 11.3K openings

since tracking started · 85.45% ±2.36 11.3K openings

73.0% 81.3% 89.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/114?window=24h) | 1,286 | 80.62% ±7.01 | −1.7σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/114?window=7d) | 9,410 | 86.19% ±2.59 | −0.5σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/114) | 11.3K | 85.45% ±2.36 | −1.2σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/114?window=all) | 11.3K | 85.45% ±2.36 | −1.2σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 37 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 11.3K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 1,000 | $303 303 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.9% | 12 | 11.3 | 1.06× |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 1,000 | $237 237 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.3% | 10 | 11.3 | 0.88× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) StatTrak · knife · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) | 1 in 1,000 | $121 121 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.2% | 6 | 11.3 | 0.53× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bowie-knife-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 500 | $112 112 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.1% | 28 | 22.7 | 1.23× |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-case-hardened-well-worn) | 1 in 333 | $90.80 90.8 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.6% | 25 | 34.0 | 0.73× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Lore (Well-Worn) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-lore-well-worn) | 1 in 250 | $75.87 75.87 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.9% | 40 | 45.4 | 0.88× |
| [AWP \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-field-tested) | 1 in 250 | $43.86 43.86 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.7% | 38 | 45.4 | 0.84× |
| [M4A4 \| Desert-Strike (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desert-strike-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $30.00 30 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.4% | 13 | 56.7 | 0.23× |
| [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Copper Galaxy (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-copper-galaxy-field-tested) | 1 in 143 | $26.63 26.63 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.8% | 69 | 79.4 | 0.87× |
| [M4A1-S \| Atomic Alloy (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-atomic-alloy-well-worn) | 1 in 125 | $25.92 25.92 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.0% | 88 | 90.8 | 0.97× |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Conspiracy (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-conspiracy-minimal-wear) | 1 in 111 | $23.03 23.03 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.0% | 90 | 102.1 | 0.88× |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-water-elemental-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $20.89 20.89 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.0% | 120 | 113.5 | 1.06× |
| [StatTrak™ Dual Berettas \| Royal Consorts (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-dual-berettas-royal-consorts-factory-new) | 1 in 91 | $17.58 17.58 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.9% | 116 | 124.8 | 0.93× |
| [Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-snack-attack-battle-scarred) | 1 in 83 | $16.30 16.3 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.9% | 131 | 136.2 | 0.96× |
| [AK-47 \| Aphrodite (Field-Tested) weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aphrodite-field-tested) | 1 in 77 | $15.52 15.52 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.9% | 130 | 147.5 | 0.88× |
| [Galil AR \| Blue Titanium (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-blue-titanium-factory-new) | 1 in 63 | $15.47 15.47 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.4% | 49 | 181.6 | 0.27× |
| [AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-factory-new) | 1 in 59 | $14.71 14.71 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.4% | 188 | 192.9 | 0.97× |
| [StatTrak™ MP9 \| Food Chain (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-food-chain-minimal-wear) | 1 in 56 | $14.57 14.57 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.5% | 215 | 204.3 | 1.05× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Slate (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-slate-field-tested) | 1 in 43 | $13.84 13.84 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.1% | 275 | 261.0 | 1.05× |
| [P250 \| Mehndi (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-mehndi-well-worn) | 1 in 53 | $13.61 13.61 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.5% | 227 | 215.6 | 1.05× |
| [UMP-45 \| Primal Saber (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-primal-saber-battle-scarred) | 1 in 42 | $13.09 13.09 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.0% | 290 | 272.4 | 1.06× |
| [AWP \| Exoskeleton (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-exoskeleton-minimal-wear) | 1 in 40 | $12.00 12 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.9% | 283 | 283.7 | 1.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Fizzy POP (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-fizzy-pop-factory-new) | 1 in 28 | $11.53 11.53 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.0% | 415 | 408.6 | 1.02× |
| [FAMAS \| Styx (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-styx-well-worn) | 1 in 27 | $10.38 10.38 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.7% | 382 | 419.9 | 0.91× |
| [M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $10.20 10.2 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.1% | 482 | 476.7 | 1.01× |
| [AWP \| The End (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-end-battle-scarred) | 1 in 21 | $9.47 9.47 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.4% | 586 | 544.8 | 1.08× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Elite Build (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-elite-build-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $9.37 9.37 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.4% | 520 | 556.1 | 0.93× |
| [Tec-9 \| Mummy's Rot (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-mummys-rot-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $8.87 8.87 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.3% | 577 | 567.5 | 1.02× |
| [Souvenir MAC-10 \| Nuclear Garden (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mac-10-nuclear-garden-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20 | $8.38 8.38 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.0% | 586 | 567.5 | 1.03× |
| [FAMAS \| Pulse (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-pulse-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $7.15 7.15 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.5% | 622 | 578.8 | 1.07× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Heirloom (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-heirloom-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $6.73 6.73 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.3% | 543 | 578.8 | 0.94× |
| [AUG \| Momentum (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-momentum-battle-scarred) | 1 in 19 | $5.44 5.44 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.7% | 593 | 590.2 | 1.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Firebreathing (Factory New) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-firebreathing-factory-new) | 1 in 18 | $5.05 5.05 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.7% | 599 | 624.2 | 0.96× |
| [StatTrak™ P250 \| Kintsugi (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-kintsugi-battle-scarred) | 1 in 16 | $4.67 4.67 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.7% | 655 | 692.3 | 0.95× |
| [AK-47 \| Searing Rage (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-searing-rage-battle-scarred) | 1 in 15 | $4.29 4.29 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.7% | 775 | 737.7 | 1.05× |
| [UMP-45 \| K.O. Factory (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-k-o-factory-battle-scarred) | 1 in 14 | $4.09 4.09 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.7% | 787 | 794.5 | 0.99× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Flashback (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-flashback-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $3.11 3.11 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.5% | 579 | 567.5 | 1.02× |

Values are Hotpizza.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hotpizza:api/data`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hotpizza&case=114)

[Desert Eagle | Firebreathing (Factory New) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-firebreathing-factory-new) [Chumby](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Chumby) $11.99 11.99 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $5.05 5.05 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.42x 2026-11-11 16:58 UTC

[Galil AR | Blue Titanium (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-blue-titanium-factory-new) [Chumby](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Chumby) $11.99 11.99 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $15.47 15.47 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 1.29x 2026-11-11 16:58 UTC

[FAMAS | Styx (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-styx-well-worn) [HAJIME](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/HAJIME) $11.99 11.99 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $10.38 10.38 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.87x 2026-11-11 16:51 UTC

[M4A1-S | Fizzy POP (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-fizzy-pop-factory-new) [HAJIME](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/HAJIME) $11.99 11.99 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $11.53 11.53 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.96x 2026-11-11 16:51 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Firebreathing (Factory New) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-firebreathing-factory-new) [madi is monke](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/madi%20is%20monke) $11.99 11.99 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $5.05 5.05 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.42x 2026-11-11 16:49 UTC

[StatTrak™ AK-47 | Elite Build (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-elite-build-minimal-wear) [AreeeK\_PL](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/AreeeK_PL) $11.99 11.99 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $9.37 9.37 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.78x 2026-11-11 16:49 UTC

[Souvenir MAC-10 | Nuclear Garden (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mac-10-nuclear-garden-battle-scarred) [AreeeK\_PL](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/AreeeK_PL) $11.99 11.99 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $8.38 8.38 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.70x 2026-11-11 16:49 UTC

[AK-47 | Aphrodite (Field-Tested) weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aphrodite-field-tested) [MERCEDES](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/MERCEDES) $11.99 11.99 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $15.52 15.52 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 1.29x 2026-11-11 16:45 UTC

[AK-47 | Searing Rage (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-searing-rage-battle-scarred) [0=NO](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/0%3DNO) $11.99 11.99 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $4.29 4.29 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.36x 2026-11-11 16:35 UTC

[Glock-18 | Snack Attack (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-snack-attack-battle-scarred) [Greed&Gluttony](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Greed%26Gluttony) $11.99 11.99 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $16.30 16.3 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 1.36x 2026-11-11 16:26 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 9 Nov, 14:05 UTC | $11.99 | 86.86% | 37 |
| 3 Nov, 09:11 UTC | $11.99 | 86.84% | 37 |
| 3 Nov, 07:29 UTC | $11.99 | 86.72% | 37 |
| 3 Nov, 04:28 UTC | $11.99 | 86.89% | 37 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 1.1% other 0.1% covert knife 0.4% Ancient 0.5% restricted 16.8% classified 12.1% Legendary 8.7% #d32ee6 1.0% Restricted 1.1% pink 17.2% #eb4b4b 1.3% mil spec 11.5% Mythical 2.5% Rare 3.6% Mil Spec 5.0% violet 5.1% uncommon 5.5% #d32ce6 6.5% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 86.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $86.86 on average: an expected loss of $13.14 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt