---
title: "Golden Bad Boy case on Hotpizza.gg: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Golden Bad Boy ($149.99) on Hotpizza.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.88% from 47 items with odds, observed 87.14% over 5,261 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/117
rendered: 2026-11-11T14:05Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hotpizza.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hotpizza) / [Golden Bad Boy](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/117)

# [Hotpizza.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hotpizza) · Golden Bad Boy

A case on Hotpizza.gg (BACK2SCHOOL), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hotpizza.gg's own item price converted from hotpizza point at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/117?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/117?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/117) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/117?window=all)

Price · $149.99 · 150 HOTPIZZA\_POINT

Advertised RTP · 89.88% · EV $134.82 from 47 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 87.14% · 5,261 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.8× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 21.5% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 76.5% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 85.57% ±7.30 575 openings

7 days · 86.80% ±2.62 4,461 openings

30 days · 87.14% ±2.41 5,261 openings

since tracking started · 87.14% ±2.41 5,261 openings

77.5% 85.5% 93.5%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 89.99% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (84.73% – 89.55%, 5,261 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/117?window=24h) | 575 | 85.57% ±7.30 | −1.2σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/117?window=7d) | 4,461 | 86.80% ±2.62 | −2.4σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/117) | 5,261 | 87.14% ±2.41 | −2.3σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/117?window=all) | 5,261 | 87.14% ±2.41 | −2.3σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 47 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5,277 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,607 1,607 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.2% | 8 | 5.3 | 1.52× |
| [Souvenir AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · #EB4B4B](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ak-47-gold-arabesque-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,229 1,229 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.9% | 6 | 5.3 | 1.14× |
| [Souvenir AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ak-47-gold-arabesque-battle-scarred) | 1 in 500 | $1,103 1,103 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.6% | 5 | 10.6 | 0.47× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-case-hardened-minimal-wear) | 1 in 333 | $732 732 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.6% | 12 | 15.8 | 0.76× |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Autotronic (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-autotronic-well-worn) | 1 in 250 | $665 665 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.0% | 15 | 21.1 | 0.71× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Freehand (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-freehand-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $657 657 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.4% | 19 | 26.4 | 0.72× |
| [M4A1-S \| Welcome to the Jungle (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-battle-scarred) | 1 in 167 | $587 587 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.6% | 25 | 31.7 | 0.79× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-fuel-injector-minimal-wear) | 1 in 143 | $503 503 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.6% | 33 | 36.9 | 0.89× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-case-hardened-well-worn) | 1 in 125 | $493 493 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.9% | 48 | 42.2 | 1.14× |
| [AK-47 \| Vulcan (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-minimal-wear) | 1 in 125 | $377 377 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.2% | 28 | 42.2 | 0.66× |
| [AK-47 \| X-Ray (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-battle-scarred) | 1 in 111 | $371 371 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.5% | 42 | 47.5 | 0.88× |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-rust-coat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $346 346 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.6% | 36 | 52.8 | 0.68× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Redline (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-redline-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $336 336 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.5% | 49 | 52.8 | 0.93× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-fuel-injector-field-tested) | 1 in 91 | $323 323 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.6% | 47 | 58.0 | 0.81× |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-ultraviolet-minimal-wear) | 1 in 67 | $259 259 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.9% | 90 | 79.2 | 1.14× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Paracord Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) StatTrak · knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-paracord-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 63 | $248 248 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.9% | 84 | 84.4 | 0.99× |
| [Souvenir M4A4 \| Eye of Horus (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a4-eye-of-horus-battle-scarred) | 1 in 53 | $223 223 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.1% | 95 | 100.3 | 0.95× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-fuel-injector-battle-scarred) | 1 in 50 | $217 217 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.2% | 120 | 105.5 | 1.14× |
| [★ Classic Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-case-hardened-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $185 185 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.7% | 114 | 105.5 | 1.08× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Paracord Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-paracord-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $176 176 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.6% | 118 | 105.5 | 1.12× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) StatTrak · knife · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-gut-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 50 | $163 163 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.4% | 87 | 105.5 | 0.82× |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $158 158 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.4% | 124 | 105.5 | 1.17× |
| [Souvenir AK-47 \| Panthera onca (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ak-47-panthera-onca-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $147 147 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.2% | 107 | 105.5 | 1.01× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-golden-coil-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $145 145 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.1% | 97 | 105.5 | 0.92× |
| [AK-47 \| Vulcan (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-well-worn) | 1 in 48 | $140 140 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.2% | 104 | 110.8 | 0.94× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-navaja-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 48 | $130 130 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.0% | 110 | 110.8 | 0.99× |
| [Galil AR \| Sugar Rush (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-sugar-rush-factory-new) | 1 in 45 | $128 128 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.1% | 39 | 116.1 | 0.34× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-wasteland-rebel-battle-scarred) | 1 in 45 | $124 124 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.0% | 126 | 116.1 | 1.09× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-battle-scarred) | 1 in 45 | $122 122 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.0% | 133 | 116.1 | 1.15× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-golden-coil-well-worn) | 1 in 45 | $110 110 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.8% | 109 | 116.1 | 0.94× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Head Shot (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-head-shot-factory-new) | 1 in 37 | $110 110 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.2% | 35 | 142.5 | 0.25× |
| [AK-47 \| Vulcan (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-battle-scarred) | 1 in 33 | $107 107 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.4% | 153 | 158.3 | 0.97× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-orbit-mk01-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $104 104 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.3% | 158 | 158.3 | 1.00× |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Lore (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-lore-battle-scarred) | 1 in 33 | $96.32 96.32 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.1% | 161 | 158.3 | 1.02× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Lore (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $92.76 92.76 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.1% | 176 | 158.3 | 1.11× |
| [M4A4 \| X-Ray (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-x-ray-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $88.12 88.12 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.0% | 158 | 158.3 | 1.00× |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Lore (Battle-Scarred) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-lore-battle-scarred) | 1 in 33 | $86.66 86.66 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.9% | 158 | 158.3 | 1.00× |
| [AK-47 \| B the Monster (Field-Tested) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-b-the-monster-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $81.92 81.92 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.8% | 150 | 158.3 | 0.95× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Stained (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-stained-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $77.59 77.59 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.7% | 147 | 158.3 | 0.93× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Bright Water (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-falchion-knife-bright-water-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $75.11 75.11 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.7% | 33 | 158.3 | 0.21× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| The Outsiders (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-the-outsiders-factory-new) | 1 in 31 | $72.00 72 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.7% | 137 | 168.9 | 0.81× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| The Emperor (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-the-emperor-well-worn) | 1 in 29 | $66.52 66.52 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.7% | 207 | 184.7 | 1.12× |
| [AWP \| Neo-Noir (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-factory-new) | 1 in 24 | $57.46 57.46 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.7% | 234 | 216.4 | 1.08× |
| [AK-47 \| B the Monster (Battle-Scarred) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-b-the-monster-battle-scarred) | 1 in 25 | $52.26 52.26 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.6% | 251 | 211.1 | 1.19× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Cartel (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-cartel-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20 | $45.08 45.08 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.7% | 274 | 263.8 | 1.04× |
| [AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aquamarine-revenge-well-worn) | 1 in 20 | $33.23 33.23 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.2% | 267 | 263.8 | 1.01× |
| [AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $29.41 29.41 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.1% | 241 | 263.8 | 0.91× |

Values are Hotpizza.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hotpizza:api/data`, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-minimal-wear) [Claraaa-](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Claraaa-) $150 150 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $1,607 1,607 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 10.71x 2026-11-11 13:12 UTC

[AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-minimal-wear) [b0bann](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/b0bann) $150 150 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $1,607 1,607 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 10.71x 2026-11-10 17:28 UTC

[AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-minimal-wear) [Myncu](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Myncu) $150 150 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $1,607 1,607 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 10.71x 2026-11-08 15:06 UTC

[AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-minimal-wear) [♡\*>>xyJIuran4uk\<\<\*♡](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/%E2%99%A1*%3E%3ExyJIuran4uk%3C%3C*%E2%99%A1-181809) $150 150 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $1,607 1,607 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 10.71x 2026-11-07 21:07 UTC

[AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-minimal-wear) [Calc](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Calc) $150 150 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $1,607 1,607 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 10.71x 2026-11-07 15:55 UTC

[AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-minimal-wear) [Bytza](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Bytza) $150 150 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $1,607 1,607 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 10.71x 2026-11-06 14:08 UTC

[AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-minimal-wear) [Brache!](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Brache!) $150 150 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $1,607 1,607 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 10.71x 2026-11-05 17:33 UTC

[AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-minimal-wear) [Henry](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Henry) $150 150 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $1,607 1,607 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 10.71x 2026-11-04 11:00 UTC

[Souvenir AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · #EB4B4B](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ak-47-gold-arabesque-field-tested) [grrom256](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/grrom256) $150 150 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $1,229 1,229 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 8.20x 2026-11-08 13:51 UTC

[Souvenir AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · #EB4B4B](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ak-47-gold-arabesque-field-tested) [fr0xis](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/fr0xis) $150 150 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $1,229 1,229 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 8.20x 2026-11-08 12:33 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hotpizza&case=117)

[★ StatTrak™ Paracord Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-paracord-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) [clone](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/clone) $150 150 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $176 176 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 1.17x 2026-11-11 14:04 UTC

[StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Golden Coil (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-golden-coil-field-tested) [Alpho](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Alpho) $150 150 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $145 145 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.96x 2026-11-11 14:03 UTC

[StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Golden Coil (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-golden-coil-field-tested) [civil pigeon](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/civil%20pigeon) $150 150 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $145 145 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.96x 2026-11-11 14:00 UTC

[StatTrak™ AK-47 | The Outsiders (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-the-outsiders-factory-new) [civil pigeon](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/civil%20pigeon) $150 150 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $72.00 72 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.48x 2026-11-11 14:00 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-navaja-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) [Crimson](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Crimson) $150 150 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $130 130 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.87x 2026-11-11 13:56 UTC

[★ Huntsman Knife | Lore (Battle-Scarred) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-lore-battle-scarred) [Jam Jam](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Jam%20Jam) $150 150 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $86.66 86.66 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.58x 2026-11-11 13:55 UTC

[StatTrak™ AK-47 | Fuel Injector (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-fuel-injector-battle-scarred) [Jam Jam](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Jam%20Jam) $150 150 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $217 217 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 1.45x 2026-11-11 13:55 UTC

[★ Huntsman Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) [Я САНЯ](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/%D0%AF%20%D0%A1%D0%90%D0%9D%D0%AF) $150 150 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $158 158 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 1.06x 2026-11-11 13:46 UTC

[★ Skeleton Knife | Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-ultraviolet-minimal-wear) [Я САНЯ](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/%D0%AF%20%D0%A1%D0%90%D0%9D%D0%AF) $150 150 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $259 259 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 1.73x 2026-11-11 13:46 UTC

[StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Emperor (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-the-emperor-well-worn) [Я САНЯ](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/%D0%AF%20%D0%A1%D0%90%D0%9D%D0%AF) $150 150 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $66.52 66.52 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.44x 2026-11-11 13:46 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 9 Nov, 14:05 UTC | $150 | 89.88% | 47 |
| 3 Nov, 07:29 UTC | $150 | 90.02% | 47 |
| 3 Nov, 04:28 UTC | $150 | 90.27% | 47 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 47.8% #EB4B4B 0.1% classified 14.3% covert knife 9.5% gold 4.5% other 3.6% #ffd700 2.0% Legendary 2.0% restricted 3.0% red 3.0% rare 7.0% epic 3.2% best hit $1,607 (10.71x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.88 on average: an expected loss of $10.12 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt