--- title: "FREE CASE #1 case on Hotpizza.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "FREE CASE #1 ($0.05) on Hotpizza.gg, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 92.86% over 490 openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/120 rendered: 2026-11-12T04:18Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hotpizza.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hotpizza) / [FREE CASE #1](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/120) # [Hotpizza.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hotpizza) · FREE CASE #1 A case on Hotpizza.gg, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hotpizza.gg's own item price converted from hotpizza point at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/120?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/120?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/120) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/120?window=all) Price · $0.05 · 0.05 HOTPIZZA\_POINT Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 92.86% · 490 openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 24 hours · 38 openings · below min 7 days · 373 openings · below min 30 days · 490 openings · below min since tracking started · 490 openings · below min 53.5% 92.8% 132.0% **Small sample.** 490 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/120?window=24h) | 38 | 92.63% ±38.5 | — | sample | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/120?window=7d) | 373 | 90.72% ±9.87 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/120) | 490 | 92.86% ±8.93 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/120?window=all) | 490 | 92.86% ±8.93 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** Hotpizza.gg publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are Hotpizza.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hotpizza&case=120) [MP5-SD | Dirt Drop (Field-Tested) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-dirt-drop-field-tested) [Mr.Zapominalski ♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Mr.Zapominalski%20%E2%99%A5%E2%99%A5%E2%99%A5%E2%99%A5%E2%99%A5%E2%99%A5%E2%99%A5%E2%99%A5%E2%99%A5%E2%99%A5) $0.05 0.05 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $0.03 0.03 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.60x 2026-11-12 02:34 UTC [Nova | Mandrel (Battle-Scarred) weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-mandrel-battle-scarred) [imeAlone](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/imeAlone) $0.05 0.05 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $0.03 0.03 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.60x 2026-11-12 00:39 UTC [SG 553 | Army Sheen (Minimal Wear) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-army-sheen-minimal-wear) [donk666](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/donk666) $0.05 0.05 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $0.03 0.03 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.60x 2026-11-11 23:09 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-minimal-wear) [Yyosik](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Yyosik) $0.05 0.05 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $0.03 0.03 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.60x 2026-11-11 23:00 UTC [R8 Revolver | Bone Mask (Field-Tested) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-bone-mask-field-tested) [Фидунчик](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/%D0%A4%D0%B8%D0%B4%D1%83%D0%BD%D1%87%D0%B8%D0%BA) $0.05 0.05 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $0.03 0.03 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.60x 2026-11-11 22:58 UTC [MAC-10 | Monkeyflage (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-monkeyflage-field-tested) [Waka](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Waka) $0.05 0.05 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $0.11 0.11 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 2.20x 2026-11-11 22:53 UTC [SG 553 | Aloha (Battle-Scarred) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-aloha-battle-scarred) [123](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/123) $0.05 0.05 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $0.10 0.1 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 2.00x 2026-11-11 22:51 UTC [MP7 | Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-forest-ddpat-field-tested) [vkuzy1996](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/vkuzy1996) $0.05 0.05 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $0.03 0.03 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.60x 2026-11-11 22:48 UTC [Tec-9 | Urban DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-urban-ddpat-field-tested) [spM](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/spM) $0.05 0.05 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $0.03 0.03 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.60x 2026-11-11 22:47 UTC [MAC-10 | Palm (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-palm-field-tested) [krohotylia](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/krohotylia) $0.05 0.05 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $0.10 0.1 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 2.00x 2026-11-11 22:44 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 92.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $92.86 on average: an expected loss of $7.14 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt