--- title: "M case on Hotpizza.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "M ($0.00) on Hotpizza.gg, a CS2 case site: no published odds. Item values at the site’s own prices, biggest and latest drops. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/122 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:55Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hotpizza.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hotpizza) / [M](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/122) # [Hotpizza.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hotpizza) · M A case on Hotpizza.gg, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hotpizza.gg's own item price converted from hotpizza point at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/122?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/122?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/122) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/122?window=all) Price · $0.00 · 0 HOTPIZZA\_POINT Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · — · no counted openings Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker **No counted openings yet** Openings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/122?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/122?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/122) | 0 | — | — | — | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/122?window=all) | 0 | — | — | — | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** Hotpizza.gg publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are Hotpizza.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-doppler-minimal-wear) [Flermer](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Flermer) $0 0 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $614 614 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.00x 2026-11-06 14:22 UTC [★ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-doppler-minimal-wear) [s̶l̶e̶e̶p̶w̶a̶l̶k̶e̶r](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/s%CC%B6l%CC%B6e%CC%B6e%CC%B6p%CC%B6w%CC%B6a%CC%B6l%CC%B6k%CC%B6e%CC%B6r) $0 0 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $614 614 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.00x 2026-11-04 08:27 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Blue Steel (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-blue-steel-well-worn) [\](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/%3CRpM%3E) $0 0 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $521 521 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.00x 2026-11-10 05:04 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Blue Steel (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-blue-steel-well-worn) [Arsixk](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Arsixk) $0 0 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $521 521 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.00x 2026-11-03 12:15 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hotpizza&case=122) [Glock-18 | Wraiths (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-wraiths-factory-new) [Admiral✵Kid](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Admiral%E2%9C%B5Kid) $0 0 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $6.19 6.19 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:54 UTC [StatTrak™ Galil AR | Rocket Pop (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-galil-ar-rocket-pop-well-worn) [MarianDTH](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/MarianDTH) $0 0 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $1.06 1.06 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:54 UTC [R8 Revolver | Crazy 8 (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-crazy-8-battle-scarred) [Grabek](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Grabek) $0 0 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $0.39 0.39 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:51 UTC [MAC-10 | Pipsqueak (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-pipsqueak-field-tested) [216578916](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/216578916) $0 0 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $0.25 0.25 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:44 UTC [Desert Eagle | Serpent Strike (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-serpent-strike-field-tested) [ederguedesdosantos23](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/ederguedesdosantos23) $0 0 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $0.44 0.44 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:39 UTC [Dual Berettas | Flora Carnivora (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-flora-carnivora-field-tested) [ederguedesdosantos23](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/ederguedesdosantos23) $0 0 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $0.43 0.43 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:39 UTC [StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Justice (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mag-7-justice-field-tested) [Gigas Waifu](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Gigas%20Waifu) $0 0 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $7.21 7.21 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:38 UTC [G3SG1 | Flux (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-flux-field-tested) [baguette](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/baguette) $0 0 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $7.67 7.67 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:36 UTC [StatTrak™ P250 | Epicenter (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-epicenter-minimal-wear) [Sooto](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Sooto) $0 0 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $16.73 16.73 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:26 UTC [Dual Berettas | Cobalt Quartz (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-cobalt-quartz-field-tested) [Ðēåđ\_şĥøŧ™](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/%C3%90%C4%93%C3%A5%C4%91_%C5%9F%C4%A5%C3%B8%C5%A7%E2%84%A2) $0 0 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $0.32 0.32 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:24 UTC ## Observed RTP over time · daily, 30 days No history yet ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** Every case pays out less than it costs on average; the rare items carry most of the advertised value and most openings return a fraction of the price. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt