--- title: "XL case on Hotpizza.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "XL ($0.00) on Hotpizza.gg, a CS2 case site: no published odds. Item values at the site’s own prices, biggest and latest drops. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/124 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:30Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hotpizza.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hotpizza) / [XL](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/124) # [Hotpizza.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hotpizza) · XL A case on Hotpizza.gg, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hotpizza.gg's own item price converted from hotpizza point at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/124?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/124?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/124) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/124?window=all) Price · $0.00 · 0 HOTPIZZA\_POINT Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · — · no counted openings Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker **No counted openings yet** Openings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/124?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/124?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/124) | 0 | — | — | — | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/124?window=all) | 0 | — | — | — | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** Hotpizza.gg publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are Hotpizza.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-battle-scarred) [★行 ꜰᴀᴛᴇ](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/%E2%98%85%E8%A1%8C%20%EA%9C%B0%E1%B4%80%E1%B4%9B%E1%B4%87) $0 0 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $607 607 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.00x 2026-11-11 05:33 UTC [AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-battle-scarred) [☣☢☢.D\_3\_N\_4\_I\_K.☢☢☣](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/%E2%98%A3%E2%98%A2%E2%98%A2.D_3_N_4_I_K.%E2%98%A2%E2%98%A2%E2%98%A3) $0 0 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $607 607 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.00x 2026-11-10 13:38 UTC [Souvenir M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-battle-scarred) [Muffa](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Muffa) $0 0 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $559 559 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.00x 2026-11-11 04:39 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hotpizza&case=124) [AWP | Capillary (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-capillary-factory-new) [BAYTAR](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/BAYTAR) $0 0 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $7.22 7.22 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:16 UTC [Tec-9 | Safety Net (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-safety-net-factory-new) [BAYTAR](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/BAYTAR) $0 0 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $13.43 13.43 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:16 UTC [Souvenir XM1014 | Elegant Vines (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-xm1014-elegant-vines-field-tested) [BAYTAR](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/BAYTAR) $0 0 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $18.74 18.74 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:16 UTC [MP9 | Food Chain (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-food-chain-factory-new) [djFREHSA](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/djFREHSA) $0 0 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $18.00 18 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:13 UTC [AK-47 | Rat Rod (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-rat-rod-field-tested) [Puff Man](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Puff%20Man) $0 0 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $4.10 4.1 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:09 UTC [StatTrak™ P90 | Shapewood (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-shapewood-battle-scarred) [A S P Ξ C T](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/A%20S%20P%20%CE%9E%20C%20T) $0 0 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $9.11 9.11 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:08 UTC [Galil AR | CAUTION! (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-caution-factory-new) [N°13 Roxas](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/N%C2%B013%20Roxas) $0 0 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $71.78 71.78 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:52 UTC [P250 | Apep's Curse (Factory New) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-apeps-curse-factory-new) [N°13 Roxas](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/N%C2%B013%20Roxas) $0 0 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $122 122 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:52 UTC [AK-47 | Rat Rod (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-rat-rod-field-tested) [N°13 Roxas](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/N%C2%B013%20Roxas) $0 0 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $4.10 4.1 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:52 UTC [MP9 | Food Chain (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-food-chain-factory-new) [siji top](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/siji%20top) $0 0 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $18.00 18 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:24 UTC ## Observed RTP over time · daily, 30 days No history yet ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** Every case pays out less than it costs on average; the rare items carry most of the advertised value and most openings return a fraction of the price. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt