---
title: "Chicken Riot case on Hotpizza.gg: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Chicken Riot ($15.50) on Hotpizza.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 98.23% from 41 items with odds, observed 97.26% over 9,985 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/127
rendered: 2026-11-11T16:58Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hotpizza.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hotpizza) / [Chicken Riot](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/127)

# [Hotpizza.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hotpizza) · Chicken Riot

A case on Hotpizza.gg (CS2 SQUAD), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hotpizza.gg's own item price converted from hotpizza point at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/127?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/127?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/127) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/127?window=all)

Price · $15.50 · 15.5 HOTPIZZA\_POINT

Advertised RTP · 98.23% · EV $15.23 from 41 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 97.26% · 9,985 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.9× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 27.5% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 76.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 101.45% ±7.57 1,267 openings

7 days · 97.26% ±2.96 8,258 openings

30 days · 97.26% ±2.70 9,985 openings

since tracking started · 97.26% ±2.70 9,985 openings

93.0% 101.3% 109.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/127?window=24h) | 1,267 | 101.45% ±7.57 | +0.8σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/127?window=7d) | 8,258 | 97.26% ±2.96 | −0.6σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/127) | 9,985 | 97.26% ±2.70 | −0.7σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/127?window=all) | 9,985 | 97.26% ±2.70 | −0.7σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 41 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 10K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 1,000 | $396 396 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.6% | 7 | 10.0 | 0.70× |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-case-hardened-battle-scarred) | 1 in 667 | $247 247 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.4% | 20 | 15.0 | 1.33× |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 500 | $217 217 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.9% | 19 | 20.0 | 0.95× |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-forest-ddpat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 333 | $156 156 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.1% | 28 | 30.0 | 0.93× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Damascus Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-damascus-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 250 | $80.31 80.31 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.1% | 36 | 40.1 | 0.90× |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Bright Water (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-bright-water-battle-scarred) | 1 in 200 | $73.96 73.96 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.4% | 41 | 50.1 | 0.82× |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Scorched (Minimal Wear) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-scorched-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $57.28 57.28 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.9% | 47 | 50.1 | 0.94× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Safari Mesh (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-safari-mesh-well-worn) | 1 in 167 | $44.95 44.95 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.8% | 53 | 60.1 | 0.88× |
| [Souvenir M4A4 \| Red DDPAT (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a4-red-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 143 | $33.40 33.4 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.5% | 65 | 70.1 | 0.93× |
| [AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aquamarine-revenge-battle-scarred) | 1 in 125 | $32.26 32.26 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.7% | 69 | 80.1 | 0.86× |
| [USP-S \| Business Class (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-business-class-field-tested) | 1 in 111 | $30.08 30.08 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.8% | 92 | 90.1 | 1.02× |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Naga (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-naga-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $27.08 27.08 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.8% | 80 | 100.1 | 0.80× |
| [StatTrak™ P90 \| Trigon (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-trigon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $24.41 24.41 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.6% | 72 | 100.1 | 0.72× |
| [SSG 08 \| Death's Head (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-deaths-head-minimal-wear) | 1 in 91 | $23.93 23.93 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.7% | 108 | 110.1 | 0.98× |
| [Souvenir MAC-10 \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · SMGs](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mac-10-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 83 | $22.37 22.37 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.8% | 116 | 120.2 | 0.97× |
| [Souvenir SG 553 \| Integrale (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-sg-553-integrale-well-worn) | 1 in 83 | $21.46 21.46 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.7% | 130 | 120.2 | 1.08× |
| [StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto \| Xiangliu (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-cz75-auto-xiangliu-battle-scarred) | 1 in 74 | $20.98 20.98 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.9% | 132 | 135.2 | 0.98× |
| [SSG 08 \| Death's Head (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-deaths-head-battle-scarred) | 1 in 67 | $19.00 19 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.9% | 159 | 150.2 | 1.06× |
| [P2000 \| Corticera (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-corticera-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $18.18 18.18 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.4% | 224 | 200.3 | 1.12× |
| [StatTrak™ Dual Berettas \| Melondrama (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-dual-berettas-melondrama-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $17.62 17.62 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.9% | 255 | 250.3 | 1.02× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| The Fuschia Is Now (Field-Tested) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-the-fuschia-is-now-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $16.15 16.15 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.2% | 355 | 300.4 | 1.18× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Spider Lily (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-spider-lily-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $16.04 16.04 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.2% | 301 | 300.4 | 1.00× |
| [StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Colony IV (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-colony-iv-well-worn) | 1 in 29 | $15.36 15.36 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.5% | 394 | 350.5 | 1.12× |
| [MP9 \| Setting Sun (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-setting-sun-field-tested) | 1 in 29 | $15.08 15.08 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.5% | 358 | 350.5 | 1.02× |
| [AWP \| Ice Coaled (Minimal Wear) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-ice-coaled-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $14.81 14.81 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.9% | 370 | 400.5 | 0.92× |
| [StatTrak™ P90 \| Blind Spot (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-blind-spot-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $14.60 14.6 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.8% | 389 | 400.5 | 0.97× |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-mecha-industries-battle-scarred) | 1 in 22 | $13.39 13.39 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.0% | 479 | 450.6 | 1.06× |
| [AK-47 \| Midnight Laminate (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-midnight-laminate-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $12.58 12.58 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.1% | 514 | 500.6 | 1.03× |
| [Glock-18 \| Steel Disruption (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-steel-disruption-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $12.25 12.25 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.0% | 515 | 500.6 | 1.03× |
| [AK-47 \| Predator (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-predator-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $11.35 11.35 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.7% | 537 | 500.6 | 1.07× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-black-lotus-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $11.12 11.12 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.7% | 497 | 500.6 | 0.99× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Blood Tiger (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-blood-tiger-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $10.84 10.84 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.2% | 470 | 450.6 | 1.04× |
| [StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Rapid Transit (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-rapid-transit-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $9.67 9.67 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.5% | 369 | 400.5 | 0.92× |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Blueprint (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-blueprint-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $8.59 8.59 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.3% | 380 | 400.5 | 0.95× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Atheris (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-atheris-well-worn) | 1 in 25 | $7.87 7.87 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.1% | 414 | 400.5 | 1.03× |
| [Souvenir M4A4 \| Tornado (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a4-tornado-battle-scarred) | 1 in 25 | $7.62 7.62 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.0% | 391 | 400.5 | 0.98× |
| [M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-well-worn) | 1 in 29 | $6.95 6.95 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.6% | 337 | 350.5 | 0.96× |
| [StatTrak™ MP9 \| Food Chain (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-food-chain-battle-scarred) | 1 in 33 | $5.56 5.56 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.1% | 299 | 300.4 | 1.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Blood Tiger (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blood-tiger-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $5.48 5.48 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.1% | 276 | 300.4 | 0.92× |
| [Souvenir AK-47 \| Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ak-47-safari-mesh-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $4.45 4.45 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.9% | 280 | 300.4 | 0.93× |
| [M4A1-S \| Solitude (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-solitude-minimal-wear) | 1 in 29 | $4.24 4.24 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.0% | 335 | 350.5 | 0.96× |

Values are Hotpizza.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hotpizza:api/data`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hotpizza&case=127)

[StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Blood Tiger (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-blood-tiger-minimal-wear) [☂Zero☂](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/%E2%98%82Zero%E2%98%82) $15.50 15.5 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $10.84 10.84 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.70x 2026-11-11 16:57 UTC

[M4A1-S | Blood Tiger (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blood-tiger-minimal-wear) [reazoNN](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/reazoNN) $15.50 15.5 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $5.48 5.48 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.35x 2026-11-11 16:57 UTC

[StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Rapid Transit (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-rapid-transit-minimal-wear) [Fronten](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Fronten) $15.50 15.5 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $9.67 9.67 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.62x 2026-11-11 16:56 UTC

[StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Black Lotus (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-black-lotus-field-tested) [kl3mpo](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/kl3mpo) $15.50 15.5 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $11.12 11.12 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.72x 2026-11-11 16:55 UTC

[StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Mecha Industries (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-mecha-industries-battle-scarred) [kl3mpo](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/kl3mpo) $15.50 15.5 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $13.39 13.39 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.86x 2026-11-11 16:55 UTC

[M4A1-S | Solitude (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-solitude-minimal-wear) [BigBrudda](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/BigBrudda) $15.50 15.5 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $4.24 4.24 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.27x 2026-11-11 16:53 UTC

[StatTrak™ SG 553 | Colony IV (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-colony-iv-well-worn) [Ass Eater Of Worlds](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Ass%20Eater%20Of%20Worlds) $15.50 15.5 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $15.36 15.36 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.99x 2026-11-11 16:52 UTC

[P2000 | Corticera (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-corticera-field-tested) [feRMNz](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/feRMNz) $15.50 15.5 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $18.18 18.18 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 1.17x 2026-11-11 16:52 UTC

[M4A1-S | Solitude (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-solitude-minimal-wear) [Riçk Sanchez](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Ri%C3%A7k%20Sanchez) $15.50 15.5 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $4.24 4.24 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.27x 2026-11-11 16:52 UTC

[AK-47 | Predator (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-predator-field-tested) [Duke](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Duke) $15.50 15.5 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $11.35 11.35 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.73x 2026-11-11 16:52 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 3 Nov, 04:28 UTC | $15.50 | 98.23% | 41 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 1.9% covert knife 1.0% rare 0.2% gold 0.5% Restricted 0.7% mil spec 11.4% restricted 18.1% classified 15.3% SMGs 1.2% Classified 6.7% #8847ff 5.5% uncommon 4.0% Mythical 5.0% industrial 5.0% pink 12.0% milspec 4.5% Industrial 7.0% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 98.2% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $98.23 on average: an expected loss of $1.77 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt