---
title: "Otaku Ollie Panda case on Hotpizza.gg: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Otaku Ollie Panda ($25.50) on Hotpizza.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 92.89% from 43 items with odds, observed 90.14% over 7,874 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/128
rendered: 2026-11-11T16:50Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hotpizza.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hotpizza) / [Otaku Ollie Panda](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/128)

# [Hotpizza.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hotpizza) · Otaku Ollie Panda

A case on Hotpizza.gg (CS2 SQUAD), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hotpizza.gg's own item price converted from hotpizza point at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/128?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/128?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/128) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/128?window=all)

Price · $25.50 · 25.5 HOTPIZZA\_POINT

Advertised RTP · 92.89% · EV $23.69 from 43 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 90.14% · 7,874 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.3× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 29.5% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 77.5% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 94.26% ±7.84 837 openings

7 days · 91.16% ±2.83 6,411 openings

30 days · 90.14% ±2.56 7,874 openings

since tracking started · 90.14% ±2.56 7,874 openings

86.0% 94.2% 102.5%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 92.89% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (87.58% – 92.69%, 7,874 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/128?window=24h) | 837 | 94.26% ±7.84 | +0.3σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/128?window=7d) | 6,411 | 91.16% ±2.83 | −1.2σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/128) | 7,874 | 90.14% ±2.56 | −2.1σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/128?window=all) | 7,874 | 90.14% ±2.56 | −2.1σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 43 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 7,887 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Black Laminate (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-black-laminate-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $544 544 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.3% | 7 | 7.9 | 0.89× |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Bright Water (Battle-Scarred) knife · knifes](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-bright-water-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,000 | $379 379 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.6% | 8 | 7.9 | 1.01× |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 1,000 | $336 336 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.4% | 5 | 7.9 | 0.63× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000 | $240 240 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.0% | 6 | 7.9 | 0.76× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Autotronic (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-flip-knife-autotronic-battle-scarred) | 1 in 333 | $221 221 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.8% | 19 | 23.7 | 0.80× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Night (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-night-field-tested) | 1 in 250 | $145 145 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.4% | 31 | 31.5 | 0.98× |
| [★ Classic Knife \| Scorched (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-scorched-minimal-wear) | 1 in 250 | $103 103 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.7% | 25 | 31.5 | 0.79× |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Blue Steel (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-blue-steel-battle-scarred) | 1 in 200 | $90.24 90.24 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.9% | 38 | 39.4 | 0.96× |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Black Laminate (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-black-laminate-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $74.72 74.72 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.6% | 28 | 39.4 | 0.71× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Ursus Knife \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ursus-knife-rust-coat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 167 | $66.98 66.98 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.7% | 41 | 47.3 | 0.87× |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Urban Masked (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-urban-masked-battle-scarred) | 1 in 143 | $54.18 54.18 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.6% | 52 | 55.2 | 0.94× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-rust-coat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 111 | $48.01 48.01 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.8% | 68 | 71.0 | 0.96× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Atomic Alloy (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-atomic-alloy-well-worn) | 1 in 100 | $43.97 43.97 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.9% | 68 | 78.9 | 0.86× |
| [StatTrak™ P250 \| Epicenter (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-epicenter-factory-new) | 1 in 91 | $36.53 36.53 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.7% | 97 | 86.8 | 1.12× |
| [Souvenir Galil AR \| Cerberus (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-galil-ar-cerberus-battle-scarred) | 1 in 91 | $34.42 34.42 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.6% | 82 | 86.8 | 0.95× |
| [M4A4 \| The Battlestar (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-battlestar-battle-scarred) | 1 in 67 | $33.86 33.86 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.1% | 102 | 118.3 | 0.86× |
| [AK-47 \| Inheritance (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-inheritance-battle-scarred) | 1 in 91 | $32.09 32.09 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.5% | 77 | 86.8 | 0.89× |
| [P90 \| Baroque Red (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-baroque-red-minimal-wear) | 1 in 67 | $30.44 30.44 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.9% | 112 | 118.3 | 0.95× |
| [P90 \| Shallow Grave (Well-Worn) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-shallow-grave-well-worn) | 1 in 50 | $29.08 29.08 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.5% | 131 | 157.7 | 0.83× |
| [P250 \| Undertow (Field-Tested) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-undertow-field-tested) | 1 in 40 | $28.43 28.43 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.0% | 180 | 197.2 | 0.91× |
| [Galil AR \| Rainbow Spoon (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-rainbow-spoon-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $27.19 27.19 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.4% | 248 | 236.6 | 1.05× |
| [StatTrak™ Nova \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nova-hyper-beast-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $26.42 26.42 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.3% | 242 | 236.6 | 1.02× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-desolate-space-well-worn) | 1 in 29 | $25.44 25.44 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.8% | 275 | 276.0 | 1.00× |
| [Souvenir M4A4 \| Red DDPAT (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a4-red-ddpat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 29 | $24.42 24.42 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.6% | 294 | 276.0 | 1.07× |
| [USP-S \| Black Lotus (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-black-lotus-factory-new) | 1 in 29 | $23.38 23.38 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.5% | 285 | 276.0 | 1.03× |
| [Souvenir MAC-10 \| Gold Brick (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mac-10-gold-brick-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $22.15 22.15 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.7% | 343 | 315.5 | 1.09× |
| [StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ump-45-neo-noir-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $21.78 21.78 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.7% | 318 | 315.5 | 1.01× |
| [Souvenir MAC-10 \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mac-10-case-hardened-well-worn) | 1 in 20 | $20.74 20.74 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.4% | 364 | 394.3 | 0.92× |
| [StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-ultraviolet-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $19.46 19.46 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.1% | 389 | 394.3 | 0.99× |
| [StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Colony IV (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-colony-iv-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $18.88 18.88 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.2% | 306 | 315.5 | 0.97× |
| [Galil AR \| Orange DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-orange-ddpat-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $18.48 18.48 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.1% | 345 | 315.5 | 1.09× |
| [StatTrak™ P250 \| Cartel (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-cartel-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $17.99 17.99 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.8% | 395 | 394.3 | 1.00× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| The Outsiders (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-the-outsiders-battle-scarred) | 1 in 25 | $16.26 16.26 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.7% | 335 | 315.5 | 1.06× |
| [StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Toybox (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-toybox-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $15.68 15.68 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.6% | 348 | 315.5 | 1.10× |
| [StatTrak™ P90 \| Trigon (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-trigon-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $14.36 14.36 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.4% | 310 | 315.5 | 0.98× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Liquidation (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-liquidation-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $13.49 13.49 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.3% | 322 | 315.5 | 1.02× |
| [M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-leaded-glass-minimal-wear) | 1 in 29 | $12.61 12.61 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.9% | 291 | 276.0 | 1.05× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Llama Cannon (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-llama-cannon-battle-scarred) | 1 in 29 | $11.06 11.06 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.6% | 278 | 276.0 | 1.01× |
| [StatTrak™ MP9 \| Hydra (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-hydra-battle-scarred) | 1 in 33 | $10.26 10.26 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.3% | 235 | 236.6 | 0.99× |
| [UMP-45 \| Fallout Warning (Battle-Scarred) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-fallout-warning-battle-scarred) | 1 in 33 | $9.23 9.23 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.2% | 231 | 236.6 | 0.98× |
| [MAC-10 \| Derailment (Factory New) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-derailment-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $8.23 8.23 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.0% | 236 | 236.6 | 1.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Elite Build (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-elite-build-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $7.69 7.69 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.6% | 158 | 157.7 | 1.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Polysoup (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-polysoup-battle-scarred) | 1 in 50 | $6.30 6.3 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.5% | 162 | 157.7 | 1.03× |

Values are Hotpizza.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hotpizza:api/data`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ M9 Bayonet | Black Laminate (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-black-laminate-minimal-wear) [Kney](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Kney) $25.50 25.5 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $544 544 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 21.35x 2026-11-11 13:33 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Black Laminate (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-black-laminate-minimal-wear) [⎛⎝Galorch⎠⎞](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/%E2%8E%9B%E2%8E%9DGalorch%E2%8E%A0%E2%8E%9E) $25.50 25.5 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $544 544 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 21.35x 2026-11-11 12:49 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Black Laminate (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-black-laminate-minimal-wear) [c1nari](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/c1nari) $25.50 25.5 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $544 544 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 21.35x 2026-11-07 00:02 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Black Laminate (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-black-laminate-minimal-wear) [Fudgie the Whale](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Fudgie%20the%20Whale) $25.50 25.5 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $544 544 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 21.35x 2026-11-05 15:34 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Black Laminate (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-black-laminate-minimal-wear) [Baccati](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Baccati) $25.50 25.5 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $544 544 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 21.35x 2026-11-05 06:00 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Black Laminate (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-black-laminate-minimal-wear) [Gibran Jansen](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Gibran%20Jansen) $25.50 25.5 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $544 544 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 21.35x 2026-11-05 01:52 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Black Laminate (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-black-laminate-minimal-wear) [edi.](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/edi.) $25.50 25.5 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $544 544 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 21.35x 2026-11-04 19:23 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hotpizza&case=128)

[StatTrak™ SG 553 | Colony IV (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-colony-iv-field-tested) [Agus](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Agus) $25.50 25.5 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $18.88 18.88 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.74x 2026-11-11 16:47 UTC

[StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ump-45-neo-noir-minimal-wear) [Agus](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Agus) $25.50 25.5 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $21.78 21.78 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.85x 2026-11-11 16:47 UTC

[M4A4 | The Battlestar (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-battlestar-battle-scarred) [Doug Dimmadome](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Doug%20Dimmadome) $25.50 25.5 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $33.86 33.86 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 1.33x 2026-11-11 16:45 UTC

[StatTrak™ P250 | Cartel (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-cartel-field-tested) [Bēru](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/B%C4%93ru) $25.50 25.5 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $17.99 17.99 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.71x 2026-11-11 16:34 UTC

[StatTrak™ M4A4 | Desolate Space (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-desolate-space-well-worn) [CrackNoCaine](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/CrackNoCaine) $25.50 25.5 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $25.44 25.44 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 1.00x 2026-11-11 16:34 UTC

[Souvenir Galil AR | Cerberus (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-galil-ar-cerberus-battle-scarred) [CrackNoCaine](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/CrackNoCaine) $25.50 25.5 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $34.42 34.42 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 1.35x 2026-11-11 16:34 UTC

[P90 | Baroque Red (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-baroque-red-minimal-wear) [CrackNoCaine](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/CrackNoCaine) $25.50 25.5 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $30.44 30.44 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 1.19x 2026-11-11 16:34 UTC

[Souvenir MAC-10 | Gold Brick (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mac-10-gold-brick-field-tested) [DinoDana05](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/DinoDana05) $25.50 25.5 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $22.15 22.15 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.87x 2026-11-11 16:30 UTC

[StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ump-45-neo-noir-minimal-wear) [Ghastly](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Ghastly) $25.50 25.5 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $21.78 21.78 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.85x 2026-11-11 16:30 UTC

[StatTrak™ P250 | Cartel (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-cartel-field-tested) [BOLT\_MAX](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/BOLT_MAX) $25.50 25.5 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $17.99 17.99 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.71x 2026-11-11 16:29 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 3 Nov, 04:28 UTC | $25.50 | 92.89% | 43 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 2.1% knifes 0.1% covert knife 2.5% classified 31.0% rare 12.1% Restricted 9.6% Covert 1.5% red 1.1% mil spec 7.0% Classified 4.5% restricted 8.0% Mil Spec Grade 5.0% uncommon 7.0% pink 3.5% industrial 3.0% violet 2.0% best hit $544 (21.35x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 92.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $92.89 on average: an expected loss of $7.11 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt