---
title: "MuscleStrike Tiger case on Hotpizza.gg: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "MuscleStrike Tiger ($49.00) on Hotpizza.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 93.64% from 37 items with odds, observed 88.29% over 7,079 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/129
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:34Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hotpizza.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hotpizza) / [MuscleStrike Tiger](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/129)

# [Hotpizza.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hotpizza) · MuscleStrike Tiger

A case on Hotpizza.gg (CS2 SQUAD), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hotpizza.gg's own item price converted from hotpizza point at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/129?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/129?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/129) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/129?window=all)

Price · $49.00 · 49 HOTPIZZA\_POINT

Advertised RTP · 93.64% · EV $45.88 from 37 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 88.29% · 7,079 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.5× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 27.5% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 76.5% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 92.78% ±8.67 783 openings

7 days · 88.64% ±3.13 5,995 openings

30 days · 88.29% ±2.88 7,079 openings

since tracking started · 88.29% ±2.88 7,079 openings

83.5% 92.8% 102.0%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 93.64% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (85.41% – 91.17%, 7,079 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/129?window=24h) | 783 | 92.78% ±8.67 | −0.2σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/129?window=7d) | 5,995 | 88.64% ±3.13 | −3.1σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/129) | 7,079 | 88.29% ±2.88 | −3.6σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/129?window=all) | 7,079 | 88.29% ±2.88 | −3.6σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 37 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 7,093 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Moto Gloves \| Spearmint (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-spearmint-well-worn) | 1 in 667 | $1,024 1,024 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.3% | 7 | 10.6 | 0.66× |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Blackbook (Minimal Wear) gloves · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-blackbook-minimal-wear) | 1 in 500 | $574 574 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.5% | 11 | 14.2 | 0.78× |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Cloud Chaser (Field-Tested) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-cloud-chaser-field-tested) | 1 in 333 | $465 465 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.0% | 14 | 21.3 | 0.66× |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Imperial Plaid (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-imperial-plaid-minimal-wear) | 1 in 333 | $312 312 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.0% | 23 | 21.3 | 1.08× |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Violet Beadwork (Field-Tested) gloves · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-violet-beadwork-field-tested) | 1 in 222 | $257 257 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.5% | 25 | 31.9 | 0.78× |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Omega (Field-Tested) gloves · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-omega-field-tested) | 1 in 250 | $200 200 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.7% | 25 | 28.4 | 0.88× |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Wave Chaser (Field-Tested) gloves · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-wave-chaser-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $185 185 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.0% | 26 | 35.5 | 0.73× |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Sunburst (Field-Tested) gloves · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-sunburst-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $176 176 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.9% | 24 | 35.5 | 0.68× |
| [★ Moto Gloves \| Eclipse (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-eclipse-well-worn) | 1 in 167 | $144 144 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.9% | 39 | 42.6 | 0.92× |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Blaze (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-blaze-well-worn) | 1 in 167 | $122 122 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.6% | 42 | 42.6 | 0.99× |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Blue Steel (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-blue-steel-well-worn) | 1 in 143 | $121 121 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.8% | 47 | 49.7 | 0.95× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Survival Knife \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-survival-knife-blue-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 125 | $91.63 91.63 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.6% | 39 | 56.7 | 0.69× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Ursus Knife \| Urban Masked (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ursus-knife-urban-masked-field-tested) | 1 in 111 | $90.66 90.66 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.8% | 55 | 63.8 | 0.86× |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Bright Water (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-bright-water-well-worn) | 1 in 100 | $76.64 76.64 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.7% | 68 | 70.9 | 0.96× |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Urban Masked (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-urban-masked-minimal-wear) | 1 in 91 | $70.81 70.81 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.7% | 59 | 78.0 | 0.76× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-blue-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 67 | $69.76 69.76 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.3% | 93 | 106.4 | 0.87× |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-bullet-queen-well-worn) | 1 in 50 | $60.59 60.59 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.6% | 138 | 141.9 | 0.97× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Damascus Steel (Well-Worn) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-damascus-steel-well-worn) | 1 in 50 | $55.85 55.85 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.4% | 129 | 141.9 | 0.91× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Paracord Knife \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-paracord-knife-safari-mesh-field-tested) | 1 in 40 | $54.34 54.34 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.0% | 176 | 177.3 | 0.99× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Night (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-night-battle-scarred) | 1 in 33 | $52.81 52.81 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.5% | 222 | 212.8 | 1.04× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-ultraviolet-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $49.51 49.51 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.3% | 278 | 283.7 | 0.98× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Bright Water (Battle-Scarred) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-bright-water-battle-scarred) | 1 in 25 | $46.39 46.39 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.0% | 262 | 283.7 | 0.92× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-forest-ddpat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $45.79 45.79 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.5% | 333 | 319.2 | 1.04× |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Buckshot (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-buckshot-battle-scarred) | 1 in 22 | $45.42 45.42 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.5% | 320 | 319.2 | 1.00× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-bright-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $41.64 41.64 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.1% | 323 | 319.2 | 1.01× |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $39.24 39.24 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.3% | 356 | 354.6 | 1.00× |
| [FAMAS \| Meltdown (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-meltdown-minimal-wear) | 1 in 18 | $35.50 35.5 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.3% | 389 | 390.1 | 1.00× |
| [★ Hydra Gloves \| Rattler (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hydra-gloves-rattler-well-worn) | 1 in 17 | $34.61 34.61 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.5% | 436 | 425.6 | 1.02× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Cyrex (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-cyrex-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $28.61 28.61 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.7% | 433 | 425.6 | 1.02× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Night Heist (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-night-heist-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $25.43 25.43 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.3% | 418 | 425.6 | 0.98× |
| [AWP \| Pink DDPAT (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pink-ddpat-well-worn) | 1 in 17 | $24.82 24.82 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.2% | 433 | 425.6 | 1.02× |
| [Souvenir AUG \| Sand Storm (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · #8847FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-aug-sand-storm-minimal-wear) | 1 in 18 | $23.15 23.15 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.8% | 448 | 390.1 | 1.15× |
| [StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Avalanche (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-tec-9-avalanche-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $21.54 21.54 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.3% | 368 | 354.6 | 1.04× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Mortis (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-mortis-factory-new) | 1 in 22 | $20.44 20.44 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.0% | 316 | 319.2 | 0.99× |
| [UMP-45 \| Primal Saber (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-primal-saber-factory-new) | 1 in 29 | $18.42 18.42 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.4% | 265 | 248.3 | 1.07× |
| [AUG \| Momentum (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-momentum-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $16.31 16.31 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.1% | 233 | 212.8 | 1.09× |
| [AUG \| Bengal Tiger (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-bengal-tiger-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $10.38 10.38 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.7% | 220 | 212.8 | 1.03× |

Values are Hotpizza.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hotpizza:api/data`, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Moto Gloves | Spearmint (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-spearmint-well-worn) [СТАЛИН](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/%D0%A1%D0%A2%D0%90%D0%9B%D0%98%D0%9D) $49.00 49 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $1,024 1,024 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 20.90x 2026-11-10 19:51 UTC

[★ Moto Gloves | Spearmint (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-spearmint-well-worn) [Ghonn](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Ghonn) $49.00 49 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $1,024 1,024 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 20.90x 2026-11-10 14:05 UTC

[★ Moto Gloves | Spearmint (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-spearmint-well-worn) [BetterThanYou](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/BetterThanYou) $49.00 49 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $1,024 1,024 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 20.90x 2026-11-08 12:42 UTC

[★ Moto Gloves | Spearmint (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-spearmint-well-worn) [Atlant](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Atlant) $49.00 49 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $1,024 1,024 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 20.90x 2026-11-08 07:19 UTC

[★ Moto Gloves | Spearmint (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-spearmint-well-worn) [Emotional](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Emotional) $49.00 49 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $1,024 1,024 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 20.90x 2026-11-07 07:10 UTC

[★ Moto Gloves | Spearmint (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-spearmint-well-worn) [Erwin Rommel](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Erwin%20Rommel) $49.00 49 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $1,024 1,024 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 20.90x 2026-11-05 04:54 UTC

[★ Moto Gloves | Spearmint (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-spearmint-well-worn) [Fin](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Fin) $49.00 49 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $1,024 1,024 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 20.90x 2026-11-03 12:40 UTC

[★ Specialist Gloves | Blackbook (Minimal Wear) gloves · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-blackbook-minimal-wear) [자신을 죽일](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/%EC%9E%90%EC%8B%A0%EC%9D%84%20%EC%A3%BD%EC%9D%BC) $49.00 49 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $574 574 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 11.71x 2026-11-11 10:01 UTC

[★ Specialist Gloves | Blackbook (Minimal Wear) gloves · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-blackbook-minimal-wear) [habibi](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/habibi) $49.00 49 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $574 574 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 11.71x 2026-11-08 02:58 UTC

[★ Specialist Gloves | Blackbook (Minimal Wear) gloves · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-blackbook-minimal-wear) [Doc Silver](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Doc%20Silver) $49.00 49 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $574 574 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 11.71x 2026-11-08 01:37 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hotpizza&case=129)

[AUG | Bengal Tiger (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-bengal-tiger-field-tested) [Amin Yahouse](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Amin%20Yahouse) $49.00 49 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $10.38 10.38 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.21x 2026-11-11 13:28 UTC

[★ Shadow Daggers | Bright Water (Battle-Scarred) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-bright-water-battle-scarred) [Эгрегор](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/%D0%AD%D0%B3%D1%80%D0%B5%D0%B3%D0%BE%D1%80) $49.00 49 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $46.39 46.39 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.95x 2026-11-11 13:28 UTC

[Souvenir AUG | Sand Storm (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · #8847FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-aug-sand-storm-minimal-wear) [blandi#rustysaloon](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/blandi%23rustysaloon) $49.00 49 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $23.15 23.15 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.47x 2026-11-11 13:27 UTC

[★ Shadow Daggers | Bright Water (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-bright-water-minimal-wear) [Ðēåđ\_şĥøŧ™](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/%C3%90%C4%93%C3%A5%C4%91_%C5%9F%C4%A5%C3%B8%C5%A7%E2%84%A2) $49.00 49 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $41.64 41.64 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.85x 2026-11-11 13:27 UTC

[★ Specialist Gloves | Buckshot (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-buckshot-battle-scarred) [elbombaxdxd](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/elbombaxdxd) $49.00 49 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $45.42 45.42 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.93x 2026-11-11 13:25 UTC

[StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Kumicho Dragon (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-field-tested) [BAYTAR](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/BAYTAR) $49.00 49 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $39.24 39.24 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.80x 2026-11-11 13:24 UTC

[★ Navaja Knife | Damascus Steel (Well-Worn) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-damascus-steel-well-worn) [FYGA](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/FYGA) $49.00 49 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $55.85 55.85 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 1.14x 2026-11-11 13:24 UTC

[★ Shadow Daggers | Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-ultraviolet-field-tested) [BAYTAR](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/BAYTAR) $49.00 49 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $49.51 49.51 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 1.01x 2026-11-11 13:24 UTC

[★ Huntsman Knife | Blue Steel (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-blue-steel-well-worn) [FYGA](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/FYGA) $49.00 49 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $121 121 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 2.47x 2026-11-11 13:24 UTC

[★ Navaja Knife | Forest DDPAT (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-forest-ddpat-minimal-wear) [Cedník \<3](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Cedn%C3%ADk%20%3C3) $49.00 49 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $45.79 45.79 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.93x 2026-11-11 13:21 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 3 Nov, 04:28 UTC | $49.00 | 93.64% | 37 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed extraordinary 12.2% epic 0.7% legendary 0.3% Immortal 1.0% rare 0.4% covert 20.8% covert knife 4.8% other 0.9% Covert 2.0% gold 4.0% Legendary 5.0% classified 25.5% mil spec 6.0% restricted 11.0% #8847FF 5.5% best hit $1,024 (20.90x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 93.6% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $93.64 on average: an expected loss of $6.36 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt