---
title: "Counter-Gas Elite case on Hotpizza.gg: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Counter-Gas Elite ($72.00) on Hotpizza.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.61% from 41 items with odds, observed 88.79% over 5,977 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/130
rendered: 2026-11-11T17:07Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hotpizza.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hotpizza) / [Counter-Gas Elite](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/130)

# [Hotpizza.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hotpizza) · Counter-Gas Elite

A case on Hotpizza.gg (CS2 SQUAD), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hotpizza.gg's own item price converted from hotpizza point at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/130?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/130?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/130) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/130?window=all)

Price · $72.00 · 72 HOTPIZZA\_POINT

Advertised RTP · 89.61% · EV $64.52 from 41 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 88.79% · 5,977 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.5× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 32.5% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 71.5% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 85.02% ±5.39 668 openings

7 days · 88.86% ±1.99 4,902 openings

30 days · 88.79% ±1.80 5,977 openings

since tracking started · 88.79% ±1.80 5,977 openings

79.0% 85.3% 91.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/130?window=24h) | 668 | 85.02% ±5.39 | −1.7σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/130?window=7d) | 4,902 | 88.86% ±1.99 | −0.7σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/130) | 5,977 | 88.79% ±1.80 | −0.9σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/130?window=all) | 5,977 | 88.79% ±1.80 | −0.9σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 41 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5,995 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,000 | $646 646 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.5% | 4 | 3.0 | 1.33× |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Autotronic (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-autotronic-battle-scarred) | 1 in 2,000 | $613 613 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.5% | 1 | 3.0 | 0.33× |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-case-hardened-well-worn) | 1 in 500 | $512 512 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.6% | 11 | 12.0 | 0.92× |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-ultraviolet-minimal-wear) | 1 in 333 | $485 485 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.3% | 16 | 18.0 | 0.89× |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 333 | $398 398 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.9% | 18 | 18.0 | 1.00× |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Blue Steel (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-blue-steel-well-worn) | 1 in 250 | $230 230 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.4% | 18 | 24.0 | 0.75× |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $218 218 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.7% | 33 | 30.0 | 1.10× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Nomad Knife \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nomad-knife-blue-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 167 | $182 182 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.7% | 27 | 36.0 | 0.75× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-falchion-knife) | 1 in 143 | $161 161 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.7% | 41 | 42.0 | 0.98× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-safari-mesh-minimal-wear) | 1 in 125 | $138 138 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.7% | 44 | 48.0 | 0.92× |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Black Laminate (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-black-laminate-factory-new) | 1 in 111 | $129 129 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.8% | 43 | 54.0 | 0.80× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 100 | $128 128 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.0% | 59 | 59.9 | 0.98× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Nomad Knife \| Night Stripe (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nomad-knife-night-stripe-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $119 119 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.8% | 52 | 59.9 | 0.87× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Ursus Knife \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ursus-knife-ultraviolet-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $111 111 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.7% | 65 | 59.9 | 1.08× |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Scorched (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-scorched-minimal-wear) | 1 in 91 | $105 105 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.8% | 71 | 65.9 | 1.08× |
| [★ Classic Knife \| Night Stripe (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-night-stripe-battle-scarred) | 1 in 83 | $101 101 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.9% | 77 | 71.9 | 1.07× |
| [★ Classic Knife \| Scorched (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-scorched-well-worn) | 1 in 83 | $93.32 93.32 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.7% | 73 | 71.9 | 1.01× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Freehand (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bowie-knife-freehand-minimal-wear) | 1 in 59 | $92.26 92.26 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.4% | 110 | 101.9 | 1.08× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Scorched (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-huntsman-knife-scorched-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $85.98 85.98 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.7% | 131 | 119.9 | 1.09× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Black Laminate (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-huntsman-knife-black-laminate-battle-scarred) | 1 in 40 | $77.58 77.58 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.0% | 155 | 149.9 | 1.03× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $76.67 76.67 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.6% | 187 | 179.8 | 1.04× |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-blue-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $75.91 75.91 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.7% | 235 | 239.8 | 0.98× |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-forest-ddpat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $73.78 73.78 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.6% | 254 | 239.8 | 1.06× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-ultraviolet-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $69.76 69.76 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.3% | 229 | 239.8 | 0.95× |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Black Laminate (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-black-laminate-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $67.07 67.07 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.2% | 246 | 239.8 | 1.03× |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Black Laminate (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-black-laminate-battle-scarred) | 1 in 25 | $64.02 64.02 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.0% | 218 | 239.8 | 0.91× |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-forest-ddpat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 25 | $61.67 61.67 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.8% | 240 | 239.8 | 1.00× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Cartel (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-cartel-well-worn) | 1 in 20 | $57.28 57.28 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.4% | 337 | 299.7 | 1.12× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Black Laminate (Well-Worn) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-black-laminate-well-worn) | 1 in 20 | $56.44 56.44 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.4% | 299 | 299.7 | 1.00× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Freehand (Minimal Wear) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-freehand-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $55.32 55.32 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.3% | 292 | 299.7 | 0.97× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Ultraviolet (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-ultraviolet-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20 | $48.29 48.29 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.7% | 298 | 299.7 | 0.99× |
| [AUG \| Carved Jade (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-carved-jade-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $45.31 45.31 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.5% | 296 | 299.7 | 0.99× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-rust-coat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 22 | $40.19 40.19 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.8% | 236 | 269.8 | 0.87× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Blue Laminate (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-blue-laminate-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $39.95 39.95 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.9% | 184 | 179.8 | 1.02× |
| [AK-47 \| Inheritance (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-inheritance-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $37.39 37.39 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.3% | 220 | 239.8 | 0.92× |
| [StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Stone Cold (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-galil-ar-stone-cold-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $34.76 34.76 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.2% | 248 | 239.8 | 1.03× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Blue Laminate (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-blue-laminate-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $32.48 32.48 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.5% | 186 | 179.8 | 1.03× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Temukau (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-temukau-battle-scarred) | 1 in 33 | $25.04 25.04 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.2% | 192 | 179.8 | 1.07× |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Stainless (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-stainless-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $23.35 23.35 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.8% | 297 | 299.7 | 0.99× |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-mecha-industries-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $20.42 20.42 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.6% | 124 | 119.9 | 1.03× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Blood Tiger (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-blood-tiger-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $15.70 15.7 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.5% | 128 | 119.9 | 1.07× |

Values are Hotpizza.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hotpizza:api/data`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear) [Girlhog Gaming](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Girlhog%20Gaming) $72.00 72 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $646 646 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 8.97x 2026-11-09 21:40 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear) [DCLXVI](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/DCLXVI) $72.00 72 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $646 646 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 8.97x 2026-11-07 05:18 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear) [Delamain](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Delamain) $72.00 72 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $646 646 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 8.97x 2026-11-03 21:37 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear) [Eraserhead](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Eraserhead) $72.00 72 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $646 646 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 8.97x 2026-11-03 17:05 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Autotronic (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-autotronic-battle-scarred) [Lipebare rustchance.com](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Lipebare%20rustchance.com) $72.00 72 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $613 613 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 8.51x 2026-11-08 10:14 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Case Hardened (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-case-hardened-well-worn) [Mah1ru](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Mah1ru) $72.00 72 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $512 512 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 7.11x 2026-11-10 21:53 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Case Hardened (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-case-hardened-well-worn) [Mumble](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Mumble) $72.00 72 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $512 512 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 7.11x 2026-11-10 06:50 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Case Hardened (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-case-hardened-well-worn) [► RasTeR ◄](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/%E2%96%BA%20RasTeR%20%E2%97%84) $72.00 72 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $512 512 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 7.11x 2026-11-08 04:33 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Case Hardened (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-case-hardened-well-worn) [C.U.B.E](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/C.U.B.E) $72.00 72 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $512 512 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 7.11x 2026-11-07 22:56 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Case Hardened (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-case-hardened-well-worn) [отец фрола](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/%D0%BE%D1%82%D0%B5%D1%86%20%D1%84%D1%80%D0%BE%D0%BB%D0%B0) $72.00 72 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $512 512 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 7.11x 2026-11-07 10:18 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hotpizza&case=130)

[★ Shadow Daggers | Freehand (Minimal Wear) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-freehand-minimal-wear) [шлюхенция](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/%D1%88%D0%BB%D1%8E%D1%85%D0%B5%D0%BD%D1%86%D0%B8%D1%8F) $72.00 72 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $55.32 55.32 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.77x 2026-11-11 17:01 UTC

[★ Gut Knife | Black Laminate (Well-Worn) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-black-laminate-well-worn) [Ogge](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Ogge) $72.00 72 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $56.44 56.44 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.78x 2026-11-11 16:50 UTC

[StatTrak™ AK-47 | Cartel (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-cartel-well-worn) [Ogge](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Ogge) $72.00 72 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $57.28 57.28 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.80x 2026-11-11 16:50 UTC

[AK-47 | Inheritance (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-inheritance-field-tested) [Diggy](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Diggy) $72.00 72 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $37.39 37.39 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.52x 2026-11-11 16:41 UTC

[StatTrak™ AK-47 | Cartel (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-cartel-well-worn) [Diggy](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Diggy) $72.00 72 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $57.28 57.28 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.80x 2026-11-11 16:41 UTC

[★ Falchion Knife | Black Laminate (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-black-laminate-field-tested) [ุhiro](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/%E0%B8%B8hiro) $72.00 72 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $67.07 67.07 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.93x 2026-11-11 16:39 UTC

[StatTrak™ M4A4 | Temukau (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-temukau-battle-scarred) [BuTaJl9](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/BuTaJl9) $72.00 72 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $25.04 25.04 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.35x 2026-11-11 16:33 UTC

[StatTrak™ M4A4 | Temukau (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-temukau-battle-scarred) [BuTaJl9](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/BuTaJl9) $72.00 72 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $25.04 25.04 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.35x 2026-11-11 16:33 UTC

[★ Shadow Daggers | Freehand (Minimal Wear) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-freehand-minimal-wear) [Kuzzz](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Kuzzz) $72.00 72 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $55.32 55.32 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.77x 2026-11-11 16:33 UTC

[★ Huntsman Knife | Black Laminate (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-black-laminate-battle-scarred) [Kuzzz](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Kuzzz) $72.00 72 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $64.02 64.02 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.89x 2026-11-11 16:33 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 3 Nov, 04:28 UTC | $72.00 | 89.61% | 41 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert knife 30.0% covert 20.5% rare 0.5% sunny 5.9% other 1.0% Immortal 4.0% classified 7.0% gold 5.0% Rare 5.0% restricted 6.0% red 4.0% Restricted 4.0% mil spec 5.0% Mil Spec Grade 2.0% best hit $646 (8.97x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.6% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.61 on average: an expected loss of $10.39 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt