---
title: "Titan case on Hotpizza.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Titan ($22.00) on Hotpizza.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 93.47% from 41 items with odds, observed 91.46% over 8,816 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/133
rendered: 2026-11-11T16:50Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hotpizza.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hotpizza) / [Titan](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/133)

# [Hotpizza.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hotpizza) · Titan

A case on Hotpizza.gg (Metal Edition), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hotpizza.gg's own item price converted from hotpizza point at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/133?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/133?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/133) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/133?window=all)

Price · $22.00 · 22 HOTPIZZA\_POINT

Advertised RTP · 93.47% · EV $20.56 from 41 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 91.46% · 8,816 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.3× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 24.7% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 79.3% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 91.60% ±6.71 1,120 openings

7 days · 92.46% ±2.62 7,316 openings

30 days · 91.46% ±2.39 8,816 openings

since tracking started · 91.46% ±2.39 8,816 openings

84.0% 91.5% 99.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/133?window=24h) | 1,120 | 91.60% ±6.71 | −0.5σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/133?window=7d) | 7,316 | 92.46% ±2.62 | −0.7σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/133) | 8,816 | 91.46% ±2.39 | −1.6σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/133?window=all) | 8,816 | 91.46% ±2.39 | −1.6σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 41 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 8,831 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-stiletto-knife-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 500 | $356 356 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.5% | 19 | 17.7 | 1.08× |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-case-hardened-well-worn) | 1 in 1,000 | $232 232 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.1% | 8 | 8.8 | 0.91× |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Stained (Battle-Scarred) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-stained-battle-scarred) | 1 in 333 | $185 185 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.7% | 21 | 26.5 | 0.79× |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-forest-ddpat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 250 | $138 138 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.7% | 34 | 35.3 | 0.96× |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Safari Mesh (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-safari-mesh-battle-scarred) | 1 in 250 | $136 136 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.7% | 37 | 35.3 | 1.05× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Damascus Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-damascus-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $109 109 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.7% | 36 | 44.2 | 0.82× |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-forest-ddpat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $99.56 99.56 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.4% | 34 | 44.2 | 0.77× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Paracord Knife \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-paracord-knife-damascus-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 167 | $70.09 70.09 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.0% | 64 | 53.0 | 1.21× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Blue Steel (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-blue-steel-battle-scarred) | 1 in 143 | $53.45 53.45 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.8% | 61 | 61.8 | 0.99× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-forest-ddpat-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $51.56 51.56 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.5% | 65 | 88.3 | 0.74× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-safari-mesh-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $46.55 46.55 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.3% | 76 | 88.3 | 0.86× |
| [AWP \| Pink DDPAT (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pink-ddpat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $37.90 37.9 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.8% | 70 | 88.3 | 0.79× |
| [AWP \| Redline (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-redline-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $36.71 36.71 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.8% | 89 | 88.3 | 1.01× |
| [MP7 \| Whiteout (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-whiteout-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $32.17 32.17 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.6% | 80 | 88.3 | 0.91× |
| [AWP \| POP AWP (Factory New) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pop-awp-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $30.23 30.23 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.5% | 24 | 88.3 | 0.27× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Elite Build (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-elite-build-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $29.28 29.28 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.4% | 20 | 88.3 | 0.23× |
| [M4A1-S \| Guardian (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-guardian-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $27.30 27.3 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.3% | 115 | 88.3 | 1.30× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-neo-noir-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $26.41 26.41 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.3% | 78 | 88.3 | 0.88× |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Stainless (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-stainless-well-worn) | 1 in 67 | $25.50 25.5 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.9% | 155 | 132.5 | 1.17× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Basilisk (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-basilisk-well-worn) | 1 in 67 | $25.13 25.13 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.8% | 114 | 132.5 | 0.86× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-chromatic-aberration-battle-scarred) | 1 in 50 | $24.11 24.11 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.3% | 178 | 176.6 | 1.01× |
| [Glock-18 \| Mirror Mosaic (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-mirror-mosaic-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $23.78 23.78 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.5% | 250 | 264.9 | 0.94× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Fever Dream (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-fever-dream-battle-scarred) | 1 in 25 | $21.90 21.9 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.3% | 344 | 353.2 | 0.97× |
| [AWP \| Corticera (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-corticera-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $21.82 21.82 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 5.3% | 427 | 441.5 | 0.97× |
| [StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Cyrex (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-cyrex-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $19.34 19.34 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.8% | 333 | 353.2 | 0.94× |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Stainless (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-stainless-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20 | $18.35 18.35 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.5% | 420 | 441.5 | 0.95× |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Heirloom (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-heirloom-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20 | $17.20 17.2 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.2% | 450 | 441.5 | 1.02× |
| [StatTrak™ AUG \| Arctic Wolf (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-aug-arctic-wolf-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $16.19 16.19 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.9% | 465 | 441.5 | 1.05× |
| [M4A4 \| Global Offensive (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-global-offensive-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $15.63 15.63 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.8% | 420 | 441.5 | 0.95× |
| [AK-47 \| Blue Laminate (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-blue-laminate-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $14.72 14.72 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.6% | 466 | 441.5 | 1.06× |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Mirror Mosaic (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-mirror-mosaic-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $14.30 14.3 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.5% | 425 | 441.5 | 0.96× |
| [MP9 \| Hypnotic (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hypnotic-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $13.88 13.88 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.4% | 486 | 441.5 | 1.10× |
| [M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $12.25 12.25 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.0% | 473 | 441.5 | 1.07× |
| [StatTrak™ MP9 \| Airlock (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-airlock-battle-scarred) | 1 in 25 | $11.46 11.46 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.2% | 356 | 353.2 | 1.01× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-phantom-disruptor-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $11.11 11.11 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.7% | 456 | 441.5 | 1.03× |
| [StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Fuel Injector (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-tec-9-fuel-injector-battle-scarred) | 1 in 25 | $10.08 10.08 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.0% | 383 | 353.2 | 1.08× |
| [AK-47 \| Slate (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-slate-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $7.03 7.03 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.0% | 266 | 264.9 | 1.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Blood Tiger (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blood-tiger-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $5.65 5.65 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.8% | 269 | 264.9 | 1.02× |
| [AK-47 \| Safari Mesh (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safari-mesh-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $5.26 5.26 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.8% | 255 | 264.9 | 0.96× |
| [AUG \| Radiation Hazard (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-radiation-hazard-factory-new) | 1 in 43 | $4.57 4.57 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.5% | 206 | 203.1 | 1.01× |
| [M4A1-S \| Flashback (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-flashback-well-worn) | 1 in 50 | $3.23 3.23 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.3% | 167 | 176.6 | 0.95× |

Values are Hotpizza.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hotpizza:api/data`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hotpizza&case=133)

[AUG | Radiation Hazard (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-radiation-hazard-factory-new) [AreeeK\_PL](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/AreeeK_PL) $22.00 22 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $4.57 4.57 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.21x 2026-11-11 16:49 UTC

[AK-47 | Slate (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-slate-minimal-wear) [AreeeK\_PL](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/AreeeK_PL) $22.00 22 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $7.03 7.03 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.32x 2026-11-11 16:49 UTC

[StatTrak™ SG 553 | Cyrex (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-cyrex-minimal-wear) [🔥Nexxu](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/%F0%9F%94%A5Nexxu) $22.00 22 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $19.34 19.34 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.88x 2026-11-11 16:47 UTC

[M4A1-S | Blood Tiger (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blood-tiger-field-tested) [Doug Dimmadome](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Doug%20Dimmadome) $22.00 22 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $5.65 5.65 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.26x 2026-11-11 16:44 UTC

[StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Heirloom (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-heirloom-battle-scarred) [Christopher the Pheasant](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Christopher%20the%20Pheasant) $22.00 22 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $17.20 17.2 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.78x 2026-11-11 16:43 UTC

[AK-47 | Safari Mesh (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safari-mesh-factory-new) [HAJIME](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/HAJIME) $22.00 22 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $5.26 5.26 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.24x 2026-11-11 16:42 UTC

[StatTrak™ AWP | Fever Dream (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-fever-dream-battle-scarred) [Scree](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Scree) $22.00 22 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $21.90 21.9 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 1.00x 2026-11-11 16:42 UTC

[M4A1-S | Black Lotus (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-factory-new) [Aatami](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Aatami) $22.00 22 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $12.25 12.25 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.56x 2026-11-11 16:42 UTC

[StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Mirror Mosaic (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-mirror-mosaic-field-tested) [HAJIME](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/HAJIME) $22.00 22 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $14.30 14.3 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.65x 2026-11-11 16:42 UTC

[M4A4 | Global Offensive (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-global-offensive-minimal-wear) [Scree](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Scree) $22.00 22 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $15.63 15.63 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.71x 2026-11-11 16:42 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 9 Nov, 14:05 UTC | $22.00 | 93.47% | 41 |
| 3 Nov, 09:11 UTC | $22.00 | 93.38% | 41 |
| 3 Nov, 04:28 UTC | $22.00 | 93.70% | 41 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert knife 2.6% Covert 0.3% covert 4.2% other 0.6% gold 1.0% restricted 25.5% classified 24.0% Mil Spec Grade 6.0% Restricted 1.0% mil spec 4.0% milspec 1.5% rare 3.0% #d32ce6 5.0% Rare 5.0% pink 5.0% Classified 4.0% industrial 5.3% #8847ff 2.0% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 93.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $93.47 on average: an expected loss of $6.53 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt