---
title: "Chroma case on Hotpizza.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Chroma ($44.00) on Hotpizza.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 93.74% from 37 items with odds, observed 95.42% over 7,169 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/134
rendered: 2026-11-11T17:32Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hotpizza.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hotpizza) / [Chroma](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/134)

# [Hotpizza.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hotpizza) · Chroma

A case on Hotpizza.gg (Metal Edition), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hotpizza.gg's own item price converted from hotpizza point at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/134?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/134?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/134) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/134?window=all)

Price · $44.00 · 44 HOTPIZZA\_POINT

Advertised RTP · 93.74% · EV $41.25 from 37 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 95.42% · 7,169 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.8× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 28.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 62.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 93.98% ±5.89 869 openings

7 days · 94.87% ±2.31 5,755 openings

30 days · 95.42% ±2.07 7,169 openings

since tracking started · 95.42% ±2.07 7,169 openings

87.5% 94.0% 100.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/134?window=24h) | 869 | 93.98% ±5.89 | +0.1σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/134?window=7d) | 5,755 | 94.87% ±2.31 | +0.4σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/134) | 7,169 | 95.42% ±2.07 | +1.0σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/134?window=all) | 7,169 | 95.42% ±2.07 | +1.0σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 37 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 7,198 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AWP \| Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,000 | $901 901 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.1% | 7 | 3.6 | 1.94× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Oni Taiji (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-oni-taiji-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000 | $465 465 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.1% | 8 | 7.2 | 1.11× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| BOOM (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-boom-minimal-wear) | 1 in 500 | $243 243 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.2% | 18 | 14.4 | 1.25× |
| [StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Blood in the Water (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-blood-in-the-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 500 | $239 239 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.2% | 8 | 14.4 | 0.56× |
| [StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-dragonfire-factory-new) | 1 in 400 | $193 193 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.2% | 26 | 18.0 | 1.44× |
| [M4A1-S \| Atomic Alloy (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-atomic-alloy-factory-new) | 1 in 222 | $182 182 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.0% | 32 | 32.4 | 0.99× |
| [Souvenir SSG 08 \| Death Strike (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ssg-08-death-strike-battle-scarred) | 1 in 222 | $174 174 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.9% | 31 | 32.4 | 0.96× |
| [G3SG1 \| Arctic Camo (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-arctic-camo-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $140 140 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.7% | 33 | 36.0 | 0.92× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Printstream (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-printstream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 125 | $121 121 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.3% | 55 | 57.6 | 0.96× |
| [AWP \| Queen's Gambit (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-queens-gambit-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $110 110 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.3% | 35 | 36.0 | 0.97× |
| [SSG 08 \| Blood in the Water (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-blood-in-the-water-field-tested) | 1 in 167 | $109 109 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.6% | 37 | 43.2 | 0.86× |
| [M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-master-piece-well-worn) | 1 in 143 | $103 103 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.7% | 50 | 50.4 | 0.99× |
| [StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Turbo Peek (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-turbo-peek-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $102 102 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.2% | 42 | 36.0 | 1.17× |
| [M4A4 \| Royal Paladin (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-royal-paladin-well-worn) | 1 in 125 | $92.05 92.05 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.8% | 62 | 57.6 | 1.08× |
| [P2000 \| Fire Elemental (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-fire-elemental-battle-scarred) | 1 in 111 | $84.71 84.71 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.8% | 66 | 64.8 | 1.02× |
| [AUG \| Chameleon (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-chameleon-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $84.50 84.5 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.0% | 72 | 72.0 | 1.00× |
| [AWP \| Snake Camo (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-snake-camo-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $73.54 73.54 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.8% | 66 | 72.0 | 0.92× |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Mirror Mosaic (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-mirror-mosaic-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $64.70 64.7 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.6% | 51 | 72.0 | 0.71× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-hyper-beast-battle-scarred) | 1 in 67 | $63.35 63.35 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.3% | 110 | 108.0 | 1.02× |
| [Galil AR \| Sugar Rush (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-sugar-rush-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $57.78 57.78 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 5.6% | 260 | 287.9 | 0.90× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Crane Flight (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-crane-flight-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $56.54 56.54 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 5.5% | 272 | 287.9 | 0.94× |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-printstream-battle-scarred) | 1 in 25 | $56.48 56.48 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 5.5% | 305 | 287.9 | 1.06× |
| [Galil AR \| Sugar Rush (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-sugar-rush-battle-scarred) | 1 in 22 | $51.32 51.32 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 5.6% | 313 | 323.9 | 0.97× |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20 | $47.89 47.89 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 5.8% | 365 | 359.9 | 1.01× |
| [FAMAS \| Bad Trip (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-bad-trip-well-worn) | 1 in 20 | $46.10 46.1 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 5.6% | 371 | 359.9 | 1.03× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Corticera (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-corticera-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $43.20 43.2 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 5.2% | 405 | 359.9 | 1.13× |
| [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $38.73 38.73 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.7% | 378 | 359.9 | 1.05× |
| [StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Bloodshot (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-bloodshot-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20 | $36.66 36.66 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.4% | 359 | 359.9 | 1.00× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Spider Lily (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-spider-lily-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $31.15 31.15 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.8% | 359 | 359.9 | 1.00× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-cyber-security-well-worn) | 1 in 20 | $28.91 28.91 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.5% | 342 | 359.9 | 0.95× |
| [USP-S \| Caiman (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-caiman-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $26.05 26.05 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.8% | 434 | 431.9 | 1.00× |
| [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-case-hardened-well-worn) | 1 in 17 | $20.42 20.42 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.0% | 466 | 431.9 | 1.08× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-light-rail-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $15.34 15.34 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.2% | 414 | 431.9 | 0.96× |
| [USP-S \| Stainless (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-stainless-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $13.45 13.45 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.6% | 99 | 359.9 | 0.28× |
| [StatTrak™ AUG \| Stymphalian (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-aug-stymphalian-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $11.76 11.76 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.4% | 353 | 359.9 | 0.98× |
| [M4A4 \| Polysoup (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-polysoup-well-worn) | 1 in 20 | $9.59 9.59 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.2% | 353 | 359.9 | 0.98× |
| [AUG \| Torque (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-torque-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $7.27 7.27 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.7% | 253 | 287.9 | 0.88× |

Values are Hotpizza.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hotpizza:api/data`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[AWP | Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-minimal-wear) [Mayh](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Mayh) $44.00 44 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $901 901 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 20.47x 2026-11-10 09:01 UTC

[AWP | Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-minimal-wear) [Черный Мечник](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/%D0%A7%D0%B5%D1%80%D0%BD%D1%8B%D0%B9%20%D0%9C%D0%B5%D1%87%D0%BD%D0%B8%D0%BA) $44.00 44 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $901 901 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 20.47x 2026-11-09 18:13 UTC

[AWP | Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-minimal-wear) [Grav1ty. JD](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Grav1ty.%20JD) $44.00 44 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $901 901 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 20.47x 2026-11-09 11:48 UTC

[AWP | Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-minimal-wear) [izi"rak"#](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/izi%22rak%22%23) $44.00 44 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $901 901 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 20.47x 2026-11-07 10:11 UTC

[AWP | Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-minimal-wear) [fantazzzt](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/fantazzzt) $44.00 44 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $901 901 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 20.47x 2026-11-05 00:05 UTC

[AWP | Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-minimal-wear) [GNDS IntelQuackCore](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/GNDS%20IntelQuackCore) $44.00 44 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $901 901 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 20.47x 2026-11-04 21:37 UTC

[AWP | Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-minimal-wear) [FanShi ︻芫=--](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/FanShi%20%EF%B8%BB%E8%8A%AB%3D--) $44.00 44 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $901 901 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 20.47x 2026-11-04 05:04 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hotpizza&case=134)

[Desert Eagle | Light Rail (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-light-rail-factory-new) [Big Nick](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Big%20Nick) $44.00 44 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $15.34 15.34 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.35x 2026-11-11 17:20 UTC

[StatTrak™ AK-47 | Crane Flight (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-crane-flight-minimal-wear) [brooklyn](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/brooklyn) $44.00 44 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $56.54 56.54 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 1.29x 2026-11-11 17:20 UTC

[StatTrak™ AWP | Corticera (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-corticera-minimal-wear) [brooklyn](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/brooklyn) $44.00 44 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $43.20 43.2 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.98x 2026-11-11 17:20 UTC

[StatTrak™ AWP | Printstream (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-printstream-minimal-wear) [dangerulitka](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/dangerulitka) $44.00 44 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $121 121 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 2.74x 2026-11-11 17:20 UTC

[USP-S | Caiman (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-caiman-field-tested) [dangerulitka](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/dangerulitka) $44.00 44 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $26.05 26.05 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.59x 2026-11-11 17:20 UTC

[P2000 | Fire Elemental (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-fire-elemental-battle-scarred) [dangerulitka](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/dangerulitka) $44.00 44 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $84.71 84.71 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 1.93x 2026-11-11 17:20 UTC

[P2000 | Fire Elemental (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-fire-elemental-battle-scarred) [dangerulitka](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/dangerulitka) $44.00 44 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $84.71 84.71 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 1.93x 2026-11-11 17:20 UTC

[AUG | Torque (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-torque-factory-new) [De4dly](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/De4dly) $44.00 44 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $7.27 7.27 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.17x 2026-11-11 17:12 UTC

[StatTrak™ USP-S | Printstream (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-printstream-battle-scarred) [aleski](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/aleski) $44.00 44 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $56.48 56.48 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 1.28x 2026-11-11 17:11 UTC

[StatTrak™ AUG | Stymphalian (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-aug-stymphalian-factory-new) [BOT NICKO](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/BOT%20NICKO) $44.00 44 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $11.76 11.76 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.27x 2026-11-11 17:10 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 9 Nov, 14:05 UTC | $44.00 | 93.74% | 37 |
| 3 Nov, 09:34 UTC | $44.00 | 94.63% | 37 |
| 3 Nov, 09:11 UTC | $44.00 | 95.01% | 37 |
| 3 Nov, 04:28 UTC | $44.00 | 94.68% | 37 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 18.9% Legendary 0.2% Covert 0.2% Ancient 0.8% classified 31.1% Classified 5.5% industrial 0.5% #eb4b4b 0.8% mil spec 6.0% #d32ce6 1.0% rare 4.0% red 5.0% restricted 21.0% violet 5.0% best hit $901 (20.47x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 93.7% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $93.74 on average: an expected loss of $6.26 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt