---
title: "Copper case on Hotpizza.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Copper ($88.00) on Hotpizza.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.98% from 48 items with odds, observed 86.67% over 5,860 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/135
rendered: 2026-11-11T19:49Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hotpizza.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hotpizza) / [Copper](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/135)

# [Hotpizza.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hotpizza) · Copper

A case on Hotpizza.gg (Metal Edition), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hotpizza.gg's own item price converted from hotpizza point at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/135?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/135?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/135) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/135?window=all)

Price · $88.00 · 88 HOTPIZZA\_POINT

Advertised RTP · 88.98% · EV $78.30 from 48 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 86.67% · 5,860 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.6× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 24.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 76.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 85.75% ±5.86 678 openings

7 days · 86.61% ±2.22 4,744 openings

30 days · 86.67% ±2.00 5,860 openings

since tracking started · 86.67% ±2.00 5,860 openings

79.0% 85.8% 92.5%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 89.02% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (84.67% – 88.67%, 5,860 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/135?window=24h) | 678 | 85.75% ±5.86 | −1.1σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/135?window=7d) | 4,744 | 86.61% ±2.22 | −2.1σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/135) | 5,860 | 86.67% ±2.00 | −2.3σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/135?window=all) | 5,860 | 86.67% ±2.00 | −2.3σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 48 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5,878 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Lore (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $1,503 1,503 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.0% | 2 | 2.9 | 0.68× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-flip-knife-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 667 | $537 537 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.0% | 13 | 8.8 | 1.47× |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Lore (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-lore-battle-scarred) | 1 in 667 | $406 406 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.8% | 11 | 8.8 | 1.25× |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-doppler-minimal-wear) | 1 in 500 | $382 382 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.0% | 10 | 11.8 | 0.85× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 250 | $337 337 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.7% | 24 | 23.5 | 1.02× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-falchion-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 250 | $289 289 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.5% | 21 | 23.5 | 0.89× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 222 | $275 275 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.6% | 19 | 26.5 | 0.72× |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $273 273 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.7% | 34 | 29.4 | 1.16× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-flip-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $260 260 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.7% | 28 | 29.4 | 0.95× |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $247 247 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.6% | 24 | 29.4 | 0.82× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Classic Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-classic-knife-case-hardened-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $239 239 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.5% | 29 | 29.4 | 0.99× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Ursus Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ursus-knife-tiger-tooth-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $219 219 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.4% | 33 | 29.4 | 1.12× |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $216 216 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.4% | 25 | 29.4 | 0.85× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-huntsman-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $192 192 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.2% | 29 | 29.4 | 0.99× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-crimson-web-battle-scarred) | 1 in 200 | $185 185 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.2% | 20 | 29.4 | 0.68× |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-slaughter-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $175 175 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.1% | 22 | 29.4 | 0.75× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-case-hardened-well-worn) | 1 in 200 | $174 174 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.1% | 25 | 29.4 | 0.85× |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $163 163 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.0% | 32 | 29.4 | 1.09× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 167 | $158 158 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.2% | 36 | 35.3 | 1.02× |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-case-hardened-well-worn) | 1 in 143 | $154 154 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.4% | 34 | 41.1 | 0.83× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 111 | $152 152 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.7% | 12 | 52.9 | 0.23× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Stained (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-stained-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $148 148 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.9% | 40 | 58.8 | 0.68× |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Damascus Steel (Well-Worn) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-damascus-steel-well-worn) | 1 in 100 | $143 143 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.8% | 48 | 58.8 | 0.82× |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $141 141 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.8% | 72 | 58.8 | 1.22× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Safari Mesh (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-safari-mesh-well-worn) | 1 in 100 | $140 140 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.8% | 49 | 58.8 | 0.83× |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-crimson-web-well-worn) | 1 in 100 | $139 139 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.8% | 55 | 58.8 | 0.94× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $132 132 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.7% | 53 | 58.8 | 0.90× |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $128 128 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.6% | 67 | 58.8 | 1.14× |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $127 127 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.6% | 55 | 58.8 | 0.94× |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-crimson-web-battle-scarred) | 1 in 50 | $117 117 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.0% | 96 | 117.6 | 0.82× |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $96.18 96.18 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.5% | 130 | 117.6 | 1.11× |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-rust-coat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 40 | $90.55 90.55 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.9% | 146 | 146.9 | 0.99× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Lore (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-lore-battle-scarred) | 1 in 33 | $80.51 80.51 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.1% | 57 | 176.3 | 0.32× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Ursus Knife \| Scorched (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ursus-knife-scorched-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $76.86 76.86 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.9% | 225 | 235.1 | 0.96× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-case-hardened-well-worn) | 1 in 22 | $75.82 75.82 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.4% | 250 | 264.5 | 0.95× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Ursus Knife \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ursus-knife-boreal-forest-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $72.50 72.5 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.2% | 252 | 264.5 | 0.95× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $69.73 69.73 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.5% | 299 | 293.9 | 1.02× |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Freehand (Field-Tested) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-freehand-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $68.12 68.12 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.3% | 306 | 293.9 | 1.04× |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-forest-ddpat-well-worn) | 1 in 17 | $64.91 64.91 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 5.0% | 332 | 352.7 | 0.94× |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-bullet-queen-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20 | $63.37 63.37 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.0% | 325 | 293.9 | 1.11× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Paracord Knife \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · knife · Knives](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-paracord-knife-rust-coat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20 | $54.52 54.52 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.5% | 281 | 293.9 | 0.96× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Scorched (Battle-Scarred) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-scorched-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20 | $44.63 44.63 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.8% | 289 | 293.9 | 0.98× |
| [MAC-10 \| Toybox (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-toybox-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $34.26 34.26 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.2% | 325 | 293.9 | 1.11× |
| [Souvenir USP-S \| Ancient Visions (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · #8847FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-usp-s-ancient-visions-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $30.86 30.86 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.0% | 318 | 293.9 | 1.08× |
| [AK-47 \| The Oligarch (Battle-Scarred) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-oligarch-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20 | $30.25 30.25 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.9% | 298 | 293.9 | 1.01× |
| [StatTrak™ XM1014 \| XOXO (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-xm1014-xoxo-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $30.04 30.04 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.9% | 337 | 293.9 | 1.15× |
| [Souvenir AK-47 \| Safety Net (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ak-47-safety-net-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $20.76 20.76 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.3% | 292 | 293.9 | 0.99× |
| [StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Firefight (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-galil-ar-firefight-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $15.50 15.5 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.8% | 243 | 235.1 | 1.03× |

Values are Hotpizza.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hotpizza:api/data`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Lore (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-lore-factory-new) [BA†ISTUTA](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/BA%E2%80%A0ISTUTA) $88.00 88 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $1,503 1,503 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 17.08x 2026-11-05 18:41 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Lore (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-lore-factory-new) [Shark Face](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Shark%20Face) $88.00 88 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $1,503 1,503 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 17.08x 2026-11-05 08:36 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife | Fade (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-flip-knife-fade-minimal-wear) [Sharko](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Sharko) $88.00 88 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $537 537 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 6.10x 2026-11-11 13:32 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife | Fade (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-flip-knife-fade-minimal-wear) [Golem The Sneaky](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Golem%20The%20Sneaky) $88.00 88 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $537 537 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 6.10x 2026-11-10 06:25 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife | Fade (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-flip-knife-fade-minimal-wear) [bayz](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/bayz) $88.00 88 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $537 537 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 6.10x 2026-11-09 18:47 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife | Fade (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-flip-knife-fade-minimal-wear) [美波](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/%E7%BE%8E%E6%B3%A2) $88.00 88 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $537 537 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 6.10x 2026-11-09 15:40 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife | Fade (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-flip-knife-fade-minimal-wear) [МИЛЯ 2008 QWEEN](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/%D0%9C%D0%98%D0%9B%D0%AF%202008%20QWEEN) $88.00 88 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $537 537 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 6.10x 2026-11-09 11:58 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife | Fade (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-flip-knife-fade-minimal-wear) [Hokage Obito](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Hokage%20Obito) $88.00 88 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $537 537 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 6.10x 2026-11-08 22:59 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife | Fade (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-flip-knife-fade-minimal-wear) [BOY BSS](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/BOY%20BSS) $88.00 88 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $537 537 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 6.10x 2026-11-08 01:28 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife | Fade (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-flip-knife-fade-minimal-wear) [Schmuhbeck](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Schmuhbeck) $88.00 88 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $537 537 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 6.10x 2026-11-07 05:34 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hotpizza&case=135)

[★ Ursus Knife | Forest DDPAT (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-forest-ddpat-well-worn) [Keif](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Keif) $88.00 88 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $64.91 64.91 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.74x 2026-11-11 19:47 UTC

[StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Bullet Queen (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-bullet-queen-battle-scarred) [Keif](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Keif) $88.00 88 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $63.37 63.37 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.72x 2026-11-11 19:47 UTC

[Souvenir USP-S | Ancient Visions (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · #8847FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-usp-s-ancient-visions-factory-new) [GhostlyRaptor0908](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/GhostlyRaptor0908) $88.00 88 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $30.86 30.86 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.35x 2026-11-11 19:46 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Slaughter (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-slaughter-minimal-wear) [GhostlyRaptor0908](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/GhostlyRaptor0908) $88.00 88 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $152 152 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 1.73x 2026-11-11 19:46 UTC

[Souvenir AK-47 | Safety Net (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ak-47-safety-net-minimal-wear) [anatomical](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/anatomical) $88.00 88 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $20.76 20.76 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.24x 2026-11-11 19:44 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ Paracord Knife | Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · knife · Knives](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-paracord-knife-rust-coat-battle-scarred) [Nighttail](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Nighttail) $88.00 88 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $54.52 54.52 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.62x 2026-11-11 19:36 UTC

[★ Navaja Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) [kachegar#RUSTCHANCE.com](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/kachegar%23RUSTCHANCE.com) $88.00 88 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $69.73 69.73 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.79x 2026-11-11 19:34 UTC

[StatTrak™ XM1014 | XOXO (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-xm1014-xoxo-factory-new) [kachegar#RUSTCHANCE.com](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/kachegar%23RUSTCHANCE.com) $88.00 88 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $30.04 30.04 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.34x 2026-11-11 19:34 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ Ursus Knife | Scorched (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ursus-knife-scorched-field-tested) [fluffer](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/fluffer) $88.00 88 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $76.86 76.86 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.87x 2026-11-11 19:33 UTC

[StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Bullet Queen (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-bullet-queen-battle-scarred) [Gandhi](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Gandhi) $88.00 88 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $63.37 63.37 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.72x 2026-11-11 19:33 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 9 Nov, 14:05 UTC | $88.00 | 88.98% | 48 |
| 3 Nov, 15:57 UTC | $88.00 | 89.02% | 48 |
| 3 Nov, 04:28 UTC | $88.00 | 89.12% | 48 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 31.5% covert knife 19.8% Covert 0.2% #ffd700 1.0% rare 11.0% Immortal 7.5% Knives 5.0% pink 5.0% #8847FF 5.0% classified 5.0% restricted 5.0% #8847ff 4.0% best hit $1,503 (17.08x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.98 on average: an expected loss of $11.02 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt