---
title: "Silver case on Hotpizza.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Silver ($111.00) on Hotpizza.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 93.97% from 42 items with odds, observed 92.96% over 5,583 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/136
rendered: 2026-11-11T15:47Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hotpizza.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hotpizza) / [Silver](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/136)

# [Hotpizza.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hotpizza) · Silver

A case on Hotpizza.gg (Metal Edition), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hotpizza.gg's own item price converted from hotpizza point at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/136?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/136?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/136) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/136?window=all)

Price · $111.00 · 111 HOTPIZZA\_POINT

Advertised RTP · 93.97% · EV $104.31 from 42 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 92.96% · 5,583 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.3× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 33.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 47.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 90.45% ±4.00 627 openings

7 days · 92.53% ±1.48 4,610 openings

30 days · 92.96% ±1.34 5,583 openings

since tracking started · 92.96% ±1.34 5,583 openings

86.0% 90.5% 95.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/136?window=24h) | 627 | 90.45% ±4.00 | −1.7σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/136?window=7d) | 4,610 | 92.53% ±1.48 | −2.0σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/136) | 5,583 | 92.96% ±1.34 | −1.6σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/136?window=all) | 5,583 | 92.96% ±1.34 | −1.6σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 42 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5,597 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Kukri Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/kukri-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $433 433 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.8% | 15 | 11.2 | 1.34× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Nomad Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) StatTrak · knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nomad-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $428 428 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.4% | 4 | 5.6 | 0.71× |
| [★ Karambit \| Urban Masked (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-urban-masked-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,000 | $401 401 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.4% | 9 | 5.6 | 1.61× |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Ultraviolet (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-ultraviolet-well-worn) | 1 in 500 | $366 366 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.7% | 8 | 11.2 | 0.71× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Nomad Knife \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nomad-knife-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 333 | $307 307 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.9% | 17 | 16.8 | 1.01× |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-crimson-web-battle-scarred) | 1 in 333 | $268 268 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.8% | 18 | 16.8 | 1.07× |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-slaughter-field-tested) | 1 in 333 | $248 248 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.7% | 22 | 16.8 | 1.31× |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-forest-ddpat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 333 | $225 225 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.6% | 8 | 16.8 | 0.48× |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 333 | $222 222 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.6% | 14 | 16.8 | 0.83× |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Damascus Steel (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-damascus-steel-well-worn) | 1 in 250 | $208 208 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.8% | 16 | 22.4 | 0.71× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bayonet-damascus-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 250 | $198 198 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.8% | 17 | 22.4 | 0.76× |
| [★ Kukri Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/kukri-knife-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 167 | $194 194 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.1% | 34 | 33.6 | 1.01× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $182 182 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.7% | 57 | 56.0 | 1.02× |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Stained (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-stained-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $181 181 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.7% | 48 | 56.0 | 0.86× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife \| Urban Masked (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-skeleton-knife-urban-masked-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $176 176 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.7% | 65 | 56.0 | 1.16× |
| [★ Kukri Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/kukri-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $174 174 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.7% | 44 | 56.0 | 0.79× |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Urban Masked (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-urban-masked-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $163 163 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.6% | 63 | 56.0 | 1.13× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-kukri-knife-case-hardened-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $163 163 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.6% | 59 | 56.0 | 1.05× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-gut-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $161 161 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.1% | 101 | 111.9 | 0.90× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-kukri-knife-slaughter-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $155 155 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.0% | 87 | 111.9 | 0.78× |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Night Stripe (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-night-stripe-battle-scarred) | 1 in 50 | $155 155 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.0% | 115 | 111.9 | 1.03× |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Urban Masked (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-urban-masked-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $153 153 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.9% | 103 | 111.9 | 0.92× |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Boreal Forest (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-boreal-forest-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $151 151 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.9% | 115 | 111.9 | 1.03× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Nomad Knife \| Stained (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nomad-knife-stained-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $148 148 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.8% | 99 | 111.9 | 0.88× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-flip-knife-damascus-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 40 | $147 147 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.5% | 135 | 139.9 | 0.96× |
| [★ Kukri Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/kukri-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $142 142 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.1% | 141 | 167.9 | 0.84× |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Damascus Steel (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-damascus-steel-battle-scarred) | 1 in 33 | $140 140 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.0% | 171 | 167.9 | 1.02× |
| [★ Kukri Knife \| Blue Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/kukri-knife-blue-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $140 140 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.0% | 41 | 167.9 | 0.24× |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Stained (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-stained-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $133 133 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.8% | 157 | 167.9 | 0.94× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Urban Masked (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-urban-masked-well-worn) | 1 in 33 | $131 131 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.8% | 136 | 167.9 | 0.81× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-falchion-knife-damascus-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $127 127 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.6% | 202 | 167.9 | 1.20× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Urban Masked (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-urban-masked-battle-scarred) | 1 in 22 | $117 117 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 5.0% | 231 | 251.9 | 0.92× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Nomad Knife \| Urban Masked (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nomad-knife-urban-masked-field-tested) | 1 in 15 | $114 114 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 7.1% | 383 | 363.8 | 1.05× |
| [★ Classic Knife \| Stained (Battle-Scarred) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-stained-battle-scarred) | 1 in 14 | $89.86 89.86 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 6.0% | 444 | 391.8 | 1.13× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Freehand (Well-Worn) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-freehand-well-worn) | 1 in 14 | $75.12 75.12 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 5.0% | 402 | 391.8 | 1.03× |
| [★ Kukri Knife \| Stained (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/kukri-knife-stained-well-worn) | 1 in 17 | $61.37 61.37 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.5% | 357 | 335.8 | 1.06× |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Urban Masked (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-urban-masked-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $52.58 52.58 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.0% | 343 | 335.8 | 1.02× |
| [FAMAS \| Afterimage (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-afterimage-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $42.19 42.19 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.0% | 302 | 279.8 | 1.08× |
| [AWP \| LongDog (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-longdog-well-worn) | 1 in 20 | $39.94 39.94 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.9% | 263 | 279.8 | 0.94× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Case Hardened (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $35.32 35.32 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.4% | 239 | 223.9 | 1.07× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Head Shot (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-head-shot-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $30.31 30.31 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.9% | 155 | 167.9 | 0.92× |
| [MP9 \| Hypnotic (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hypnotic-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $22.55 22.55 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.9% | 226 | 223.9 | 1.01× |

Values are Hotpizza.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hotpizza:api/data`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hotpizza&case=136)

[FAMAS | Afterimage (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-afterimage-factory-new) [pie of rhodesia](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/pie%20of%20rhodesia) $111 111 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $42.19 42.19 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.38x 2026-11-11 15:42 UTC

[★ Bowie Knife | Freehand (Well-Worn) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-freehand-well-worn) [Better than U](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Better%20than%20U) $111 111 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $75.12 75.12 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.68x 2026-11-11 15:36 UTC

[★ Kukri Knife | Stained (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/kukri-knife-stained-well-worn) [MłP・PlayBigoZ \[🌹\]](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/M%C5%82P%E3%83%BBPlayBigoZ%20%5B%F0%9F%8C%B9%5D) $111 111 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $61.37 61.37 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.55x 2026-11-11 15:25 UTC

[★ Stiletto Knife | Boreal Forest (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-boreal-forest-minimal-wear) [MłP・PlayBigoZ \[🌹\]](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/M%C5%82P%E3%83%BBPlayBigoZ%20%5B%F0%9F%8C%B9%5D) $111 111 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $151 151 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 1.36x 2026-11-11 15:25 UTC

[★ Flip Knife | Urban Masked (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-urban-masked-battle-scarred) [Deeno](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Deeno) $111 111 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $117 117 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 1.05x 2026-11-11 15:18 UTC

[★ Classic Knife | Stained (Battle-Scarred) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-stained-battle-scarred) [Deeno](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Deeno) $111 111 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $89.86 89.86 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.81x 2026-11-11 15:18 UTC

[★ Flip Knife | Urban Masked (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-urban-masked-well-worn) [famous](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/famous) $111 111 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $131 131 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 1.18x 2026-11-11 15:10 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Case Hardened (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-case-hardened-factory-new) [Etrome](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Etrome) $111 111 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $35.32 35.32 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.32x 2026-11-11 15:10 UTC

[★ Kukri Knife | Blue Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/kukri-knife-blue-steel-factory-new) [cigoooooo](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/cigoooooo) $111 111 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $140 140 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 1.26x 2026-11-11 15:10 UTC

[★ Kukri Knife | Blue Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/kukri-knife-blue-steel-factory-new) [Maxymo](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Maxymo) $111 111 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $140 140 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 1.26x 2026-11-11 15:10 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 9 Nov, 14:05 UTC | $111 | 93.97% | 42 |
| 3 Nov, 15:57 UTC | $111 | 94.12% | 42 |
| 3 Nov, 04:28 UTC | $111 | 94.11% | 42 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 23.4% other 0.1% covert knife 37.9% Immortal 3.6% Covert 1.0% epic 2.0% gold 14.0% classified 5.0% red 5.0% restricted 4.0% #8847ff 4.0% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 94.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $93.97 on average: an expected loss of $6.03 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt