---
title: "Gold case on Hotpizza.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Gold ($333.00) on Hotpizza.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 86.73% from 41 items with odds, observed 86.85% over 3,449 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/137
rendered: 2026-11-11T16:05Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hotpizza.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hotpizza) / [Gold](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/137)

# [Hotpizza.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hotpizza) · Gold

A case on Hotpizza.gg (Metal Edition), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hotpizza.gg's own item price converted from hotpizza point at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/137?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/137?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/137) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/137?window=all)

Price · $333.00 · 333 HOTPIZZA\_POINT

Advertised RTP · 86.73% · EV $288.82 from 41 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 86.85% · 3,449 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.4× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 30.6% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 78.4% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 87.49% ±6.67 321 openings

7 days · 87.55% ±2.27 2,763 openings

30 days · 86.85% ±2.03 3,449 openings

since tracking started · 86.85% ±2.03 3,449 openings

80.0% 87.5% 95.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/137?window=24h) | 321 | 87.49% ±6.67 | +0.2σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/137?window=7d) | 2,763 | 87.55% ±2.27 | +0.7σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/137) | 3,449 | 86.85% ±2.03 | +0.2σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/137?window=all) | 3,449 | 86.85% ±2.03 | +0.2σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 41 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,452 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Case Hardened (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 667 | $1,922 1,922 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.0% | 3 | 5.2 | 0.58× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,416 1,416 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.5% | 4 | 3.5 | 1.16× |
| [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) | 1 in 400 | $1,400 1,400 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.2% | 14 | 8.6 | 1.62× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) StatTrak · knife · Covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 400 | $1,350 1,350 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.2% | 11 | 8.6 | 1.27× |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-2) | 1 in 333 | $1,268 1,268 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.3% | 10 | 10.4 | 0.97× |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 333 | $1,162 1,162 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.2% | 11 | 10.4 | 1.06× |
| [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 286 | $1,023 1,023 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.2% | 13 | 12.1 | 1.08× |
| [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Black Laminate (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · Knives](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-black-laminate-factory-new) | 1 in 286 | $1,003 1,003 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.2% | 10 | 12.1 | 0.83× |
| [★ Karambit \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $990 990 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.7% | 18 | 17.3 | 1.04× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 167 | $960 960 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.0% | 15 | 20.7 | 0.72× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-damascus-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 154 | $871 871 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.0% | 26 | 22.4 | 1.16× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Lore (Well-Worn) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-lore-well-worn) | 1 in 143 | $695 695 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.7% | 35 | 24.2 | 1.45× |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-tiger-tooth-minimal-wear) | 1 in 111 | $568 568 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.8% | 17 | 31.1 | 0.55× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-1) | 1 in 63 | $567 567 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.1% | 22 | 55.2 | 0.40× |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 56 | $492 492 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.1% | 57 | 62.1 | 0.92× |
| [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Lore (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 53 | $465 465 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.1% | 54 | 65.6 | 0.82× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Slaughter (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bayonet-slaughter-field-tested) | 1 in 53 | $459 459 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.0% | 58 | 65.6 | 0.88× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Lore (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $450 450 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.1% | 69 | 69.0 | 1.00× |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $400 400 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.8% | 67 | 69.0 | 0.97× |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $397 397 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.8% | 76 | 69.0 | 1.10× |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-case-hardened-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $354 354 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.7% | 106 | 103.6 | 1.02× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bayonet-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $327 327 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.4% | 105 | 103.6 | 1.01× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ursus-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $320 320 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.3% | 100 | 103.6 | 0.97× |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Stained (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-stained-battle-scarred) | 1 in 33 | $311 311 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.2% | 102 | 103.6 | 0.98× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-falchion-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 29 | $302 302 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.7% | 107 | 120.8 | 0.89× |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Scorched (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-scorched-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $278 278 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.9% | 140 | 138.1 | 1.01× |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Night Stripe (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-night-stripe-battle-scarred) | 1 in 25 | $251 251 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.5% | 141 | 138.1 | 1.02× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-case-hardened-battle-scarred) | 1 in 25 | $239 239 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.3% | 143 | 138.1 | 1.04× |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $234 234 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.2% | 159 | 138.1 | 1.15× |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $219 219 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.4% | 163 | 155.3 | 1.05× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 21 | $215 215 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.5% | 155 | 162.2 | 0.96× |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 21 | $202 202 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.3% | 156 | 162.2 | 0.96× |
| [★ Classic Knife knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife) | 1 in 20 | $194 194 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.4% | 185 | 172.6 | 1.07× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Lore (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $183 183 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.2% | 157 | 172.6 | 0.91× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Bright Water (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bayonet-bright-water-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $179 179 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.1% | 176 | 172.6 | 1.02× |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $169 169 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.9% | 165 | 172.6 | 0.96× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Urban Masked (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-urban-masked-well-worn) | 1 in 25 | $160 160 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.2% | 31 | 138.1 | 0.22× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $141 141 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.0% | 134 | 138.1 | 0.97× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Survival Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-survival-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $125 125 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.3% | 119 | 103.6 | 1.15× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-tiger-tooth-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $100 100 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.0% | 21 | 103.6 | 0.20× |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-case-hardened-battle-scarred) | 1 in 50 | $98.27 98.27 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.7% | 58 | 69.0 | 0.84× |

Values are Hotpizza.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hotpizza:api/data`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Case Hardened (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-case-hardened-factory-new) [Andriucha](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Andriucha) $333 333 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $1,922 1,922 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 5.77x 2026-11-07 13:30 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Case Hardened (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-case-hardened-factory-new) [Сырок](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/%D0%A1%D1%8B%D1%80%D0%BE%D0%BA) $333 333 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $1,922 1,922 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 5.77x 2026-11-07 09:42 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Case Hardened (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-case-hardened-factory-new) [🔰ice](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/%F0%9F%94%B0ice) $333 333 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $1,922 1,922 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 5.77x 2026-11-05 17:39 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) [Mudkip](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Mudkip) $333 333 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $1,416 1,416 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 4.25x 2026-11-07 14:22 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) [mestoimeniya\_txc🦠🧪](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/mestoimeniya_txc%F0%9F%A6%A0%F0%9F%A7%AA) $333 333 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $1,416 1,416 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 4.25x 2026-11-06 01:12 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) [mar\[1\]o\_](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/mar%5B1%5Do_) $333 333 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $1,416 1,416 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 4.25x 2026-11-05 15:56 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) [a bijou of obscurity](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/a%20bijou%20of%20obscurity) $333 333 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $1,416 1,416 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 4.25x 2026-11-03 17:43 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) [Barroso](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Barroso) $333 333 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $1,400 1,400 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 4.20x 2026-11-10 23:31 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) [KhrysterS](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/KhrysterS) $333 333 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $1,400 1,400 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 4.20x 2026-11-09 17:29 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) [Ege 753](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Ege%20753) $333 333 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $1,400 1,400 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 4.20x 2026-11-09 15:33 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hotpizza&case=137)

[★ Bowie Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-fade-factory-new) [NayteBK](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/NayteBK) $333 333 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $215 215 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.65x 2026-11-11 15:30 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-1) [NayteBK](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/NayteBK) $333 333 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $567 567 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 1.70x 2026-11-11 15:30 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-case-hardened-battle-scarred) [kanakis](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/kanakis) $333 333 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $239 239 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.72x 2026-11-11 15:21 UTC

[★ Nomad Knife | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-crimson-web-minimal-wear) [ItzTerry](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/ItzTerry) $333 333 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $219 219 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.66x 2026-11-11 15:13 UTC

[★ Classic Knife knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife) [Brumi](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Brumi) $333 333 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $194 194 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.58x 2026-11-11 15:11 UTC

[★ Bowie Knife | Case Hardened (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-case-hardened-field-tested) [Пиво](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/%D0%9F%D0%B8%D0%B2%D0%BE) $333 333 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $141 141 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.42x 2026-11-11 15:11 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ Bayonet | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bayonet-tiger-tooth-factory-new) [SneakySnek](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/SneakySnek) $333 333 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $327 327 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.98x 2026-11-11 15:11 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-case-hardened-battle-scarred) [Allen and Mi](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Allen%20and%20Mi) $333 333 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $239 239 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.72x 2026-11-11 15:11 UTC

[★ Talon Knife | Scorched (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-scorched-minimal-wear) [DισxчDε](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/D%CE%B9%CF%83x%D1%87D%CE%B5) $333 333 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $278 278 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.84x 2026-11-11 15:08 UTC

[★ Nomad Knife | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-crimson-web-minimal-wear) [Flermer](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Flermer) $333 333 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $219 219 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.66x 2026-11-11 14:58 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 9 Nov, 14:05 UTC | $333 | 86.73% | 41 |
| 3 Nov, 09:11 UTC | $333 | 86.67% | 41 |
| 3 Nov, 04:28 UTC | $333 | 87.03% | 41 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed #EB4B4B 0.1% covert 50.4% Covert 5.3% Knives 0.3% covert knife 22.6% epic 6.7% gold 11.5% #ffd700 3.0% best hit $1,922 (5.77x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 86.7% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $86.73 on average: an expected loss of $13.27 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt