---
title: "Perilous Pepperoni case on Hotpizza.gg: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Perilous Pepperoni ($5.50) on Hotpizza.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 86.01% from 31 items with odds, observed 83.30% over 15.3K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/139
rendered: 2026-11-11T17:27Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hotpizza.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hotpizza) / [Perilous Pepperoni](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/139)

# [Hotpizza.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hotpizza) · Perilous Pepperoni

A case on Hotpizza.gg (Hellfire Cases), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hotpizza.gg's own item price converted from hotpizza point at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/139?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/139?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/139) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/139?window=all)

Price · $5.50 · 5.5 HOTPIZZA\_POINT

Advertised RTP · 86.01% · EV $4.73 from 31 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 83.30% · 15.3K openings, odds method

Variance · 1.8× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 25.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 79.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 85.97% ±6.18 1,857 openings

7 days · 83.89% ±2.48 12.6K openings

30 days · 83.30% ±2.26 15.3K openings

since tracking started · 83.30% ±2.26 15.3K openings

79.0% 86.0% 93.0%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 86.35% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (81.04% – 85.55%, 15,329 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/139?window=24h) | 1,857 | 85.97% ±6.18 | −0.0σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/139?window=7d) | 12.6K | 83.89% ±2.48 | −1.9σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/139) | 15.3K | 83.30% ±2.26 | −2.7σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/139?window=all) | 15.3K | 83.30% ±2.26 | −2.7σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 31 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 15.4K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-slaughter-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000 | $175 175 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.7% | 10 | 15.4 | 0.65× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| 龍王 (Dragon King) (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-dragon-king-factory-new) | 1 in 667 | $101 101 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.2% | 15 | 23.1 | 0.65× |
| [StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Isaac (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-tec-9-isaac-factory-new) | 1 in 286 | $37.52 37.52 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.8% | 60 | 53.8 | 1.11× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Crane Flight (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-crane-flight-well-worn) | 1 in 222 | $23.81 23.81 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.3% | 47 | 69.2 | 0.68× |
| [StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Pulse (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-famas-pulse-factory-new) | 1 in 143 | $18.00 18 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.7% | 98 | 107.6 | 0.91× |
| [StatTrak™ MP5-SD \| Agent (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp5-sd-agent-factory-new) | 1 in 182 | $16.13 16.13 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.9% | 76 | 84.6 | 0.90× |
| [MAC-10 \| Nuclear Garden (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-nuclear-garden-field-tested) | 1 in 125 | $15.79 15.79 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.7% | 129 | 123.0 | 1.05× |
| [StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Pulse (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-famas-pulse-field-tested) | 1 in 105 | $11.36 11.36 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.3% | 128 | 146.1 | 0.88× |
| [PP-Bizon \| High Roller (Well-Worn) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-high-roller-well-worn) | 1 in 105 | $10.54 10.54 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.1% | 140 | 146.1 | 0.96× |
| [StatTrak™ Dual Berettas \| Marina (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-dual-berettas-marina-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $8.71 8.71 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.8% | 132 | 153.8 | 0.86× |
| [MP7 \| Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $7.38 7.38 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.1% | 282 | 307.5 | 0.92× |
| [SG 553 \| Candy Apple (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-candy-apple-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $6.61 6.61 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.2% | 470 | 461.3 | 1.02× |
| [M4A4 \| Spider Lily (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-spider-lily-well-worn) | 1 in 20 | $6.31 6.31 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 6.7% | 816 | 768.8 | 1.06× |
| [StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Disco Tech (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-disco-tech-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20 | $6.11 6.11 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 6.5% | 761 | 768.8 | 0.99× |
| [Glock-18 \| Shinobu (Well-Worn) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-shinobu-well-worn) | 1 in 25 | $5.14 5.14 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.3% | 178 | 615.1 | 0.29× |
| [MP9 \| Hydra (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hydra-well-worn) | 1 in 20 | $4.99 4.99 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 5.3% | 757 | 768.8 | 0.98× |
| [AWP \| Exothermic (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-exothermic-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $4.70 4.7 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 5.0% | 797 | 768.8 | 1.04× |
| [StatTrak™ Sawed-Off \| Kiss♥Love (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sawed-off-kiss-love-well-worn) | 1 in 20 | $4.56 4.56 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.8% | 740 | 768.8 | 0.96× |
| [MAC-10 \| Derailment (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-derailment-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $4.27 4.27 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 6.3% | 1,080 | 1076.4 | 1.00× |
| [AUG \| Aristocrat (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-aristocrat-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $4.19 4.19 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 6.2% | 1,043 | 1076.4 | 0.97× |
| [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Urban Hazard (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-urban-hazard-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $3.90 3.9 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 5.8% | 1,092 | 1076.4 | 1.01× |
| [StatTrak™ MP7 \| Amberline (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp7-amberline-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $3.37 3.37 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.3% | 952 | 922.6 | 1.03× |
| [AWP \| Phobos (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-phobos-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $2.44 2.44 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.6% | 782 | 768.8 | 1.02× |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Firebreathing (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-firebreathing-well-worn) | 1 in 25 | $1.93 1.93 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.6% | 627 | 615.1 | 1.02× |
| [MAG-7 \| Petroglyph (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-petroglyph-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $1.91 1.91 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.6% | 553 | 615.1 | 0.90× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Sweet Little Angels (Field-Tested) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-sweet-little-angels-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $1.81 1.81 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.5% | 614 | 615.1 | 1.00× |
| [StatTrak™ P250 \| Nevermore (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-nevermore-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $1.70 1.7 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.4% | 632 | 615.1 | 1.03× |
| [Glock-18 \| Nuclear Garden (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-nuclear-garden-battle-scarred) | 1 in 33 | $1.61 1.61 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.0% | 483 | 461.3 | 1.05× |
| [StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Sakkaku (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-sakkaku-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $1.57 1.57 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.0% | 492 | 461.3 | 1.07× |
| [Glock-18 \| Candy Apple (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-candy-apple-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $1.28 1.28 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.8% | 474 | 461.3 | 1.03× |
| [StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Pipe Down (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-pipe-down-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $0.90 0.9 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.6% | 460 | 461.3 | 1.00× |

Values are Hotpizza.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hotpizza:api/data`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hotpizza&case=139)

[AUG | Aristocrat (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-aristocrat-factory-new) [DNS pringles](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/DNS%20pringles) $5.50 5.5 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $4.19 4.19 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.76x 2026-11-11 17:25 UTC

[StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Firebreathing (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-firebreathing-well-worn) [C$1Gä](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/C%241G%C3%A4) $5.50 5.5 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $1.93 1.93 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.35x 2026-11-11 17:25 UTC

[PP-Bizon | High Roller (Well-Worn) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-high-roller-well-worn) [Gmodlightboomer](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Gmodlightboomer) $5.50 5.5 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $10.54 10.54 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 1.92x 2026-11-11 17:25 UTC

[StatTrak™ MP7 | Amberline (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp7-amberline-minimal-wear) [Heldas](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Heldas) $5.50 5.5 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $3.37 3.37 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.61x 2026-11-11 17:24 UTC

[StatTrak™ MP7 | Amberline (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp7-amberline-minimal-wear) [Ramza](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Ramza) $5.50 5.5 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $3.37 3.37 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.61x 2026-11-11 17:24 UTC

[MP9 | Hydra (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hydra-well-worn) [Rik (in jail for tax evasion)](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Rik%20%28in%20jail%20for%20tax%20evasion%29) $5.50 5.5 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $4.99 4.99 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.91x 2026-11-11 17:11 UTC

[StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Pipe Down (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-pipe-down-field-tested) [Rik (in jail for tax evasion)](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Rik%20%28in%20jail%20for%20tax%20evasion%29) $5.50 5.5 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $0.90 0.9 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.16x 2026-11-11 17:11 UTC

[StatTrak™ MP7 | Amberline (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp7-amberline-minimal-wear) [IceBLue](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/IceBLue) $5.50 5.5 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $3.37 3.37 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.61x 2026-11-11 17:08 UTC

[AWP | Phobos (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-phobos-minimal-wear) [шлюхенция](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/%D1%88%D0%BB%D1%8E%D1%85%D0%B5%D0%BD%D1%86%D0%B8%D1%8F) $5.50 5.5 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $2.44 2.44 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.44x 2026-11-11 17:08 UTC

[Glock-18 | Candy Apple (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-candy-apple-minimal-wear) [Huswyn](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Huswyn) $5.50 5.5 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $1.28 1.28 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.23x 2026-11-11 17:08 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 9 Nov, 14:05 UTC | $5.50 | 86.01% | 31 |
| 3 Nov, 15:57 UTC | $5.50 | 86.46% | 31 |
| 3 Nov, 04:28 UTC | $5.50 | 86.61% | 31 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed #ffd700 0.1% Classified 5.2% mil spec 4.1% pink 0.5% restricted 24.7% Restricted 3.5% #d32ee6 0.9% industrial 3.0% uncommon 12.0% classified 10.0% Mythical 13.0% #8847ff 12.0% Rare 7.0% violet 4.0% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 86.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $86.01 on average: an expected loss of $13.99 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt