---
title: "Furious Jalapeño case on Hotpizza.gg: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Furious Jalapeño ($11.00) on Hotpizza.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.36% from 33 items with odds, observed 84.98% over 11.4K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/140
rendered: 2026-11-11T16:58Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hotpizza.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hotpizza) / [Furious Jalapeño](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/140)

# [Hotpizza.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hotpizza) · Furious Jalapeño

A case on Hotpizza.gg (Hellfire Cases), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hotpizza.gg's own item price converted from hotpizza point at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/140?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/140?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/140) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/140?window=all)

Price · $11.00 · 11 HOTPIZZA\_POINT

Advertised RTP · 88.36% · EV $9.72 from 33 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 84.98% · 11.4K openings, odds method

Variance · 1.4× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 17.6% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 82.4% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 81.94% ±6.05 1,483 openings

7 days · 85.46% ±2.41 9,449 openings

30 days · 84.98% ±2.20 11.4K openings

since tracking started · 84.98% ±2.20 11.4K openings

75.0% 82.0% 89.0%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 88.21% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (82.77% – 87.18%, 11,415 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/140?window=24h) | 1,483 | 81.94% ±6.05 | −2.1σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/140?window=7d) | 9,449 | 85.46% ±2.41 | −2.4σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/140) | 11.4K | 84.98% ±2.20 | −2.9σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/140?window=all) | 11.4K | 84.98% ±2.20 | −2.9σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 33 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 11.4K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-4) | 1 in 1,000 | $125 125 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.3% | 9 | 11.4 | 0.79× |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-monster-mashup-factory-new) | 1 in 667 | $116 116 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.8% | 9 | 17.2 | 0.52× |
| [Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 333 | $105 105 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.2% | 36 | 34.3 | 1.05× |
| [Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gamma-doppler-battle-scarred) | 1 in 286 | $92.33 92.33 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.3% | 25 | 40.0 | 0.62× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Cobra Strike (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-cobra-strike-factory-new) | 1 in 286 | $77.99 77.99 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.8% | 34 | 40.0 | 0.85× |
| [USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-factory-new) | 1 in 286 | $62.80 62.8 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.3% | 39 | 40.0 | 0.97× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Cobra Strike (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-cobra-strike-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $53.66 53.66 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 5.5% | 95 | 114.4 | 0.83× |
| [AK-47 \| Green Laminate (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-green-laminate-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $41.34 41.34 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.3% | 112 | 114.4 | 0.98× |
| [StatTrak™ MP9 \| Food Chain (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-food-chain-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $37.97 37.97 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.9% | 113 | 114.4 | 0.99× |
| [Souvenir Glock-18 \| Nuclear Garden (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-glock-18-nuclear-garden-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $26.84 26.84 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.8% | 108 | 114.4 | 0.94× |
| [StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Eco (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-galil-ar-eco-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $21.84 21.84 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.2% | 126 | 114.4 | 1.10× |
| [Tec-9 \| Remote Control (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-remote-control-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $20.99 20.99 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.2% | 86 | 114.4 | 0.75× |
| [AWP \| Sun in Leo (Battle-Scarred) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-sun-in-leo-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $18.85 18.85 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.9% | 104 | 114.4 | 0.91× |
| [AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-well-worn) | 1 in 50 | $17.10 17.1 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.5% | 211 | 228.8 | 0.92× |
| [Glock-18 \| Ramese's Reach (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-rameses-reach-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $16.80 16.8 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.5% | 228 | 228.8 | 1.00× |
| [UMP-45 \| Primal Saber (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-primal-saber-well-worn) | 1 in 50 | $14.36 14.36 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.0% | 232 | 228.8 | 1.01× |
| [StatTrak™ MP5-SD \| Phosphor (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp5-sd-phosphor-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $12.50 12.5 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.9% | 294 | 343.3 | 0.86× |
| [StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Primal Saber (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ump-45-primal-saber-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $10.85 10.85 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.3% | 94 | 343.3 | 0.27× |
| [G3SG1 \| The Executioner (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-the-executioner-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $9.26 9.26 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.8% | 456 | 457.7 | 1.00× |
| [StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Isaac (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-tec-9-isaac-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $8.58 8.58 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.4% | 485 | 572.1 | 0.85× |
| [Souvenir AUG \| Carved Jade (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-aug-carved-jade-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $7.55 7.55 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.7% | 716 | 686.5 | 1.04× |
| [AK-47 \| The Outsiders (Field-Tested) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-outsiders-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $6.49 6.49 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.7% | 691 | 800.9 | 0.86× |
| [StatTrak™ Dual Berettas \| Melondrama (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-dual-berettas-melondrama-battle-scarred) | 1 in 12 | $6.02 6.02 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 5.2% | 997 | 961.1 | 1.04× |
| [AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $5.95 5.95 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.9% | 825 | 915.4 | 0.90× |
| [StatTrak™ MP7 \| Powercore (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp7-powercore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $5.51 5.51 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.0% | 818 | 800.9 | 1.02× |
| [Glock-18 \| Nuclear Garden (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-nuclear-garden-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $5.36 5.36 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.9% | 830 | 800.9 | 1.04× |
| [UMP-45 \| K.O. Factory (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-k-o-factory-well-worn) | 1 in 20 | $4.73 4.73 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.4% | 571 | 572.1 | 1.00× |
| [Tec-9 \| Remote Control (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-remote-control-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $4.42 4.42 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.3% | 580 | 572.1 | 1.01× |
| [M4A4 \| Sheet Lightning (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-sheet-lightning-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $4.36 4.36 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.2% | 592 | 572.1 | 1.03× |
| [StatTrak™ M249 \| Emerald Poison Dart (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m249-emerald-poison-dart-well-worn) | 1 in 33 | $3.38 3.38 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.0% | 351 | 343.3 | 1.02× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Emphorosaur-S (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-emphorosaur-s-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $2.34 2.34 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.7% | 313 | 343.3 | 0.91× |
| [StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Fever Dream (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-fever-dream-battle-scarred) | 1 in 33 | $2.04 2.04 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.6% | 316 | 343.3 | 0.92× |
| [MAC-10 \| Derailment (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-derailment-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $1.70 1.7 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.5% | 340 | 343.3 | 0.99× |

Values are Hotpizza.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hotpizza:api/data`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hotpizza&case=140)

[AK-47 | Phantom Disruptor (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-field-tested) [Slunigo](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Slunigo) $11.00 11 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $5.95 5.95 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.54x 2026-11-11 16:58 UTC

[M4A4 | Sheet Lightning (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-sheet-lightning-factory-new) [Slunigo](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Slunigo) $11.00 11 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $4.36 4.36 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.40x 2026-11-11 16:58 UTC

[AK-47 | Phantom Disruptor (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-field-tested) [Agus](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Agus) $11.00 11 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $5.95 5.95 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.54x 2026-11-11 16:57 UTC

[AK-47 | Phantom Disruptor (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-field-tested) [Amaterasu \<3](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Amaterasu%20%3C3) $11.00 11 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $5.95 5.95 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.54x 2026-11-11 16:55 UTC

[StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Melondrama (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-dual-berettas-melondrama-battle-scarred) [R1deR](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/R1deR) $11.00 11 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $6.02 6.02 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.55x 2026-11-11 16:50 UTC

[AK-47 | Green Laminate (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-green-laminate-factory-new) [R1deR](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/R1deR) $11.00 11 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $41.34 41.34 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 3.76x 2026-11-11 16:50 UTC

[M4A4 | Sheet Lightning (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-sheet-lightning-factory-new) [Kozep](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Kozep) $11.00 11 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $4.36 4.36 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.40x 2026-11-11 16:48 UTC

[Souvenir AUG | Carved Jade (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-aug-carved-jade-factory-new) [Kozep](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Kozep) $11.00 11 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $7.55 7.55 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.69x 2026-11-11 16:48 UTC

[AK-47 | Phantom Disruptor (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-field-tested) [Kozep](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Kozep) $11.00 11 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $5.95 5.95 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.54x 2026-11-11 16:48 UTC

[StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Isaac (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-tec-9-isaac-minimal-wear) [Kozep](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Kozep) $11.00 11 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $8.58 8.58 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.78x 2026-11-11 16:48 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 9 Nov, 14:05 UTC | $11.00 | 88.36% | 33 |
| 4 Nov, 07:06 UTC | $11.00 | 88.39% | 33 |
| 4 Nov, 05:40 UTC | $11.00 | 87.13% | 33 |
| 3 Nov, 15:57 UTC | $11.00 | 86.89% | 33 |
| 3 Nov, 04:28 UTC | $11.00 | 87.08% | 33 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.4% classified 30.3% red 0.3% mil spec 12.0% restricted 18.0% industrial 1.0% violet 2.0% pink 7.0% rare 7.0% #d32ee6 8.0% #8847ff 8.0% Restricted 3.0% Mythical 3.0% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.4% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.36 on average: an expected loss of $11.64 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt