---
title: "Cayenne Madness case on Hotpizza.gg: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Cayenne Madness ($44.00) on Hotpizza.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.59% from 40 items with odds, observed 89.13% over 7,282 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/141
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:52Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hotpizza.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hotpizza) / [Cayenne Madness](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/141)

# [Hotpizza.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hotpizza) · Cayenne Madness

A case on Hotpizza.gg (Hellfire Cases), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hotpizza.gg's own item price converted from hotpizza point at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/141?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/141?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/141) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/141?window=all)

Price · $44.00 · 44 HOTPIZZA\_POINT

Advertised RTP · 88.59% · EV $38.98 from 40 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 89.13% · 7,282 openings, odds method

Variance · 3.5× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 25.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 88.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 95.04% ±11.88 940 openings

7 days · 88.70% ±4.66 6,106 openings

30 days · 89.13% ±4.27 7,282 openings

since tracking started · 89.13% ±4.27 7,282 openings

82.5% 95.0% 107.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/141?window=24h) | 940 | 95.04% ±11.9 | +1.1σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/141?window=7d) | 6,106 | 88.70% ±4.66 | −0.1σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/141) | 7,282 | 89.13% ±4.27 | +0.1σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/141?window=all) | 7,282 | 89.13% ±4.27 | +0.1σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 40 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 7,304 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 667 | $1,883 1,883 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 7.2% | 10 | 11.0 | 0.91× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-skeleton-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $555 555 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.8% | 14 | 14.6 | 0.96× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 333 | $321 321 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.5% | 25 | 21.9 | 1.14× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Nomad Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nomad-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 286 | $264 264 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.4% | 28 | 25.6 | 1.10× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 250 | $234 234 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.4% | 33 | 29.2 | 1.13× |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $205 205 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.6% | 35 | 36.5 | 0.96× |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-autotronic-minimal-wear) | 1 in 167 | $120 120 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.8% | 41 | 43.8 | 0.94× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 167 | $116 116 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.8% | 41 | 43.8 | 0.94× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-case-hardened-battle-scarred) | 1 in 167 | $111 111 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.7% | 50 | 43.8 | 1.14× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-neo-noir-minimal-wear) | 1 in 143 | $78.14 78.14 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.4% | 53 | 51.1 | 1.04× |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Rust Coat (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-rust-coat-well-worn) | 1 in 125 | $75.12 75.12 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.5% | 48 | 58.4 | 0.82× |
| [★ Classic Knife \| Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-safari-mesh-minimal-wear) | 1 in 111 | $73.64 73.64 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.7% | 23 | 65.7 | 0.35× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Autotronic (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-autotronic-field-tested) | 1 in 111 | $67.10 67.1 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.5% | 56 | 65.7 | 0.85× |
| [★ Hydra Gloves \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred) gloves · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/hydra-gloves-case-hardened-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $61.58 61.58 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.6% | 83 | 73.0 | 1.14× |
| [AWP \| Redline (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-redline-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $57.90 57.9 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.5% | 77 | 73.0 | 1.05× |
| [USP-S \| Orion (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-orion-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $52.81 52.81 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.4% | 73 | 73.0 | 1.00× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Cartel (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-cartel-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $45.40 45.4 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.3% | 168 | 146.1 | 1.15× |
| [AWP \| Neo-Noir (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-well-worn) | 1 in 50 | $42.83 42.83 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.2% | 136 | 146.1 | 0.93× |
| [AWP \| Queen's Gambit (Battle-Scarred) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-queens-gambit-battle-scarred) | 1 in 50 | $41.99 41.99 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.2% | 137 | 146.1 | 0.94× |
| [USP-S \| Ancient Visions (Factory New) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-ancient-visions-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $39.24 39.24 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.0% | 222 | 219.1 | 1.01× |
| [MAC-10 \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $38.60 38.6 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.0% | 235 | 219.1 | 1.07× |
| [StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-big-iron-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $37.42 37.42 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.9% | 57 | 219.1 | 0.26× |
| [MAC-10 \| Stalker (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-stalker-well-worn) | 1 in 33 | $36.29 36.29 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.8% | 234 | 219.1 | 1.07× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-black-lotus-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $34.93 34.93 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.7% | 204 | 219.1 | 0.93× |
| [MP9 \| Setting Sun (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-setting-sun-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $34.53 34.53 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.4% | 357 | 365.2 | 0.98× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Nitro (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-nitro-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $33.78 33.78 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 5.2% | 435 | 438.2 | 0.99× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-phantom-disruptor-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $32.30 32.3 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 5.0% | 443 | 438.2 | 1.01× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-point-disarray-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $29.20 29.2 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.5% | 431 | 438.2 | 0.98× |
| [USP-S \| Cortex (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $28.86 28.86 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.4% | 451 | 438.2 | 1.03× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Fever Dream (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-fever-dream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $27.28 27.28 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.5% | 366 | 365.2 | 1.00× |
| [StatTrak™ AUG \| Syd Mead (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-aug-syd-mead-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $26.56 26.56 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.4% | 377 | 365.2 | 1.03× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Basilisk (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-basilisk-battle-scarred) | 1 in 25 | $22.62 22.62 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.3% | 273 | 292.2 | 0.93× |
| [SSG 08 \| Threat Detected (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-threat-detected-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $21.93 21.93 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.3% | 300 | 292.2 | 1.03× |
| [StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Death's Head (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-deaths-head-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $17.99 17.99 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.8% | 271 | 292.2 | 0.93× |
| [StatTrak™ Nova \| Antique (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nova-antique-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $16.24 16.24 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.2% | 202 | 219.1 | 0.92× |
| [Souvenir Glock-18 \| Candy Apple (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-glock-18-candy-apple-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $15.50 15.5 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.2% | 200 | 219.1 | 0.91× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Hemoglobin (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-hemoglobin-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $14.48 14.48 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.1% | 213 | 219.1 | 0.97× |
| [M4A4 \| Polysoup (Minimal Wear) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-polysoup-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $13.22 13.22 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.0% | 239 | 219.1 | 1.09× |
| [AUG \| Random Access (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-random-access-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $11.68 11.68 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.9% | 212 | 219.1 | 0.97× |
| [SSG 08 \| Dark Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dark-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $9.44 9.44 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.7% | 219 | 219.1 | 1.00× |

Values are Hotpizza.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hotpizza:api/data`, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-ruby) [Daimi](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Daimi) $44.00 44 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $1,883 1,883 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 42.80x 2026-11-11 07:14 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-ruby) [ME NAME JEF](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/ME%20NAME%20JEF) $44.00 44 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $1,883 1,883 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 42.80x 2026-11-11 02:16 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-ruby) [LordFord80](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/LordFord80) $44.00 44 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $1,883 1,883 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 42.80x 2026-11-09 16:06 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-ruby) [124TreeTop](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/124TreeTop) $44.00 44 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $1,883 1,883 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 42.80x 2026-11-08 07:45 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-ruby) [Don Mateo](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Don%20Mateo) $44.00 44 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $1,883 1,883 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 42.80x 2026-11-08 07:06 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-ruby) [Enter a profile name](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Enter%20a%20profile%20name) $44.00 44 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $1,883 1,883 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 42.80x 2026-11-07 14:26 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-ruby) [! Tack タック](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/!%20Tack%20%E3%82%BF%E3%83%83%E3%82%AF) $44.00 44 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $1,883 1,883 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 42.80x 2026-11-05 05:35 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-ruby) [BOT Dora](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/BOT%20Dora) $44.00 44 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $1,883 1,883 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 42.80x 2026-11-05 04:15 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-ruby) [🌸 ElectroTheCat 🌸](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/%F0%9F%8C%B8%20ElectroTheCat%20%F0%9F%8C%B8) $44.00 44 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $1,883 1,883 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 42.80x 2026-11-03 22:13 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-ruby) [⭐M@tteS⭐](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/%E2%AD%90M%40tteS%E2%AD%90) $44.00 44 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $1,883 1,883 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 42.80x 2026-11-03 17:56 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hotpizza&case=141)

[Five-SeveN | Nitro (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-nitro-minimal-wear) [♦BritZ♦](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/%E2%99%A6BritZ%E2%99%A6) $44.00 44 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $33.78 33.78 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.77x 2026-11-11 13:48 UTC

[MP9 | Setting Sun (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-setting-sun-factory-new) [Grabek](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Grabek) $44.00 44 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $34.53 34.53 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.78x 2026-11-11 13:44 UTC

[StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Basilisk (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-basilisk-battle-scarred) [Jam Jam](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Jam%20Jam) $44.00 44 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $22.62 22.62 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.51x 2026-11-11 13:43 UTC

[SSG 08 | Dark Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dark-water-minimal-wear) [Jam Jam](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Jam%20Jam) $44.00 44 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $9.44 9.44 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.21x 2026-11-11 13:43 UTC

[StatTrak™ AK-47 | Phantom Disruptor (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-phantom-disruptor-factory-new) [Jam Jam](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Jam%20Jam) $44.00 44 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $32.30 32.3 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.73x 2026-11-11 13:43 UTC

[SSG 08 | Dark Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dark-water-minimal-wear) [Jam Jam](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Jam%20Jam) $44.00 44 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $9.44 9.44 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.21x 2026-11-11 13:43 UTC

[MAC-10 | Fade (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-fade-factory-new) [A Dyslexic Cobra](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/A%20Dyslexic%20Cobra) $44.00 44 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $38.60 38.6 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.88x 2026-11-11 13:38 UTC

[StatTrak™ AK-47 | Point Disarray (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-point-disarray-field-tested) [A Dyslexic Cobra](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/A%20Dyslexic%20Cobra) $44.00 44 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $29.20 29.2 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.66x 2026-11-11 13:38 UTC

[USP-S | Ancient Visions (Factory New) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-ancient-visions-factory-new) [Forever Young](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Forever%20Young) $44.00 44 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $39.24 39.24 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.89x 2026-11-11 13:30 UTC

[StatTrak™ AUG | Syd Mead (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-aug-syd-mead-factory-new) [Danjgem](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Danjgem) $44.00 44 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $26.56 26.56 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.60x 2026-11-11 13:25 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 9 Nov, 14:05 UTC | $44.00 | 88.59% | 40 |
| 3 Nov, 15:57 UTC | $44.00 | 88.95% | 40 |
| 3 Nov, 04:28 UTC | $44.00 | 89.49% | 40 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 8.6% Covert 0.2% #ffd700 0.3% rare 2.5% gold 1.6% covert knife 1.8% classified 32.0% Restricted 7.0% mil spec 14.0% Classified 9.0% Mil Spec Grade 6.0% restricted 10.0% Rare 4.0% uncommon 3.0% best hit $1,883 (42.80x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.6% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.59 on average: an expected loss of $11.41 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt