---
title: "Piri Piri Inferno case on Hotpizza.gg: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Piri Piri Inferno ($85.00) on Hotpizza.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 86.65% from 38 items with odds, observed 85.97% over 6,033 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/142
rendered: 2026-11-11T14:09Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hotpizza.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hotpizza) / [Piri Piri Inferno](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/142)

# [Hotpizza.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hotpizza) · Piri Piri Inferno

A case on Hotpizza.gg (Hellfire Cases), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hotpizza.gg's own item price converted from hotpizza point at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/142?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/142?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/142) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/142?window=all)

Price · $85.00 · 85 HOTPIZZA\_POINT

Advertised RTP · 86.65% · EV $73.65 from 38 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 85.97% · 6,033 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.5× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 28.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 58.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 83.65% ±5.10 738 openings

7 days · 86.26% ±1.95 5,039 openings

30 days · 85.97% ±1.79 6,033 openings

since tracking started · 85.97% ±1.79 6,033 openings

78.0% 83.8% 89.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/142?window=24h) | 738 | 83.65% ±5.10 | −1.2σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/142?window=7d) | 5,039 | 86.26% ±1.95 | −0.4σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/142) | 6,033 | 85.97% ±1.79 | −0.8σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/142?window=all) | 6,033 | 85.97% ±1.79 | −0.8σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 38 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 6,047 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Souvenir M4A1-S \| Welcome to the Jungle (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · #EB4B4B](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000 | $738 738 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.0% | 8 | 6.0 | 1.32× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Black Laminate (Minimal Wear) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-black-laminate-minimal-wear) | 1 in 500 | $695 695 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.9% | 7 | 12.1 | 0.58× |
| [★ Karambit \| Night (Field-Tested) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-night-field-tested) | 1 in 500 | $485 485 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.3% | 10 | 12.1 | 0.83× |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Scorched (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-scorched-minimal-wear) | 1 in 250 | $356 356 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.9% | 20 | 24.2 | 0.83× |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Night Stripe (Well-Worn) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-night-stripe-well-worn) | 1 in 250 | $254 254 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.4% | 24 | 24.2 | 0.99× |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $244 244 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.7% | 32 | 30.2 | 1.06× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Scorched (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bayonet-scorched-minimal-wear) | 1 in 143 | $223 223 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.1% | 41 | 42.3 | 0.97× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Survival Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-survival-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 143 | $162 162 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.5% | 42 | 42.3 | 0.99× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Freehand (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-flip-knife-freehand-field-tested) | 1 in 125 | $151 151 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.6% | 43 | 48.4 | 0.89× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Urban Masked (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-flip-knife-urban-masked-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $143 143 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.9% | 55 | 60.5 | 0.91× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Forest DDPAT (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-forest-ddpat-well-worn) | 1 in 100 | $133 133 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.8% | 66 | 60.5 | 1.09× |
| [M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $125 125 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.7% | 53 | 60.5 | 0.88× |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Damascus Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-damascus-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $124 124 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.7% | 52 | 60.5 | 0.86× |
| [M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-mecha-industries-well-worn) | 1 in 50 | $118 118 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.2% | 119 | 120.9 | 0.98× |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Damascus Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-damascus-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $114 114 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.6% | 194 | 181.4 | 1.07× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-slaughter-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $111 111 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.5% | 179 | 181.4 | 0.99× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $108 108 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.4% | 207 | 181.4 | 1.14× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bowie-knife-damascus-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $105 105 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.3% | 186 | 181.4 | 1.03× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Autotronic (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bowie-knife-autotronic-battle-scarred) | 1 in 33 | $105 105 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.3% | 173 | 181.4 | 0.95× |
| [★ Kukri Knife \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/kukri-knife-case-hardened-well-worn) | 1 in 33 | $95.03 95.03 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.9% | 174 | 181.4 | 0.96× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| X-Ray (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-x-ray-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $91.82 91.82 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 5.0% | 235 | 241.9 | 0.97× |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Boreal Forest (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-boreal-forest-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $87.46 87.46 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 5.9% | 295 | 302.3 | 0.98× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Nomad Knife \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nomad-knife-safari-mesh-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $86.89 86.89 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 5.9% | 317 | 302.3 | 1.05× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Freehand (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-freehand-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20 | $74.15 74.15 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 5.0% | 323 | 302.3 | 1.07× |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Boreal Forest (Minimal Wear) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-boreal-forest-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $60.30 60.3 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.1% | 291 | 302.3 | 0.96× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-ultraviolet-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $55.67 55.67 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.8% | 278 | 302.3 | 0.92× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-navaja-knife-safari-mesh-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $54.86 54.86 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.7% | 297 | 302.3 | 0.98× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $48.24 48.24 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.9% | 349 | 362.8 | 0.96× |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-neo-noir-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20 | $39.35 39.35 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.7% | 312 | 302.3 | 1.03× |
| [M4A1-S \| Moss Quartz (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-moss-quartz-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $33.41 33.41 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.3% | 333 | 302.3 | 1.10× |
| [Souvenir AK-47 \| Black Laminate (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ak-47-black-laminate-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $31.05 31.05 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.7% | 227 | 241.9 | 0.94× |
| [AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chrome-cannon-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $28.78 28.78 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.2% | 170 | 181.4 | 0.94× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-desolate-space-battle-scarred) | 1 in 33 | $27.43 27.43 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.1% | 215 | 181.4 | 1.19× |
| [M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $24.36 24.36 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.0% | 186 | 181.4 | 1.03× |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-crimson-web-battle-scarred) | 1 in 33 | $20.27 20.27 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.8% | 171 | 181.4 | 0.94× |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-jawbreaker-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $18.16 18.16 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.5% | 117 | 120.9 | 0.97× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-phantom-disruptor-battle-scarred) | 1 in 50 | $10.97 10.97 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.3% | 124 | 120.9 | 1.03× |
| [M4A4 \| Polysoup (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-polysoup-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $9.31 9.31 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.3% | 111 | 120.9 | 0.92× |

Values are Hotpizza.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hotpizza:api/data`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[Souvenir M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · #EB4B4B](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-field-tested) [A S P Ξ C T](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/A%20S%20P%20%CE%9E%20C%20T) $85.00 85 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $738 738 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 8.69x 2026-11-11 13:02 UTC

[Souvenir M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · #EB4B4B](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-field-tested) [󠁳⁧⁧ l i c c](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/%F3%A0%81%B3%E2%81%A7%E2%81%A7%20l%20i%20c%20c) $85.00 85 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $738 738 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 8.69x 2026-11-11 05:15 UTC

[Souvenir M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · #EB4B4B](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-field-tested) [МАША ПЧЕЛОВОД](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/%D0%9C%D0%90%D0%A8%D0%90%20%D0%9F%D0%A7%D0%95%D0%9B%D0%9E%D0%92%D0%9E%D0%94) $85.00 85 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $738 738 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 8.69x 2026-11-06 13:27 UTC

[Souvenir M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · #EB4B4B](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-field-tested) [42](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/42) $85.00 85 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $738 738 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 8.69x 2026-11-06 05:28 UTC

[Souvenir M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · #EB4B4B](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-field-tested) [Lia](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Lia) $85.00 85 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $738 738 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 8.69x 2026-11-05 20:03 UTC

[Souvenir M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · #EB4B4B](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-field-tested) [acromo](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/acromo) $85.00 85 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $738 738 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 8.69x 2026-11-05 19:55 UTC

[Souvenir M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · #EB4B4B](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-field-tested) [not so dire straits](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/not%20so%20dire%20straits) $85.00 85 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $738 738 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 8.69x 2026-11-04 16:35 UTC

[Souvenir M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · #EB4B4B](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-field-tested) [NyanMatt](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/NyanMatt) $85.00 85 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $738 738 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 8.69x 2026-11-03 22:00 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Black Laminate (Minimal Wear) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-black-laminate-minimal-wear) [ᴇɢᴏɪsᴛ](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/%E1%B4%87%C9%A2%E1%B4%8F%C9%AAs%E1%B4%9B) $85.00 85 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $695 695 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 8.17x 2026-11-11 07:34 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Black Laminate (Minimal Wear) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-black-laminate-minimal-wear) [Immortal 🂽](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Immortal%20%F0%9F%82%BD) $85.00 85 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $695 695 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 8.17x 2026-11-10 04:47 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hotpizza&case=142)

[★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-navaja-knife-safari-mesh-field-tested) [Admiral✵Kid](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Admiral%E2%9C%B5Kid) $85.00 85 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $54.86 54.86 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.65x 2026-11-11 14:07 UTC

[M4A1-S | Moss Quartz (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-moss-quartz-minimal-wear) [Admiral✵Kid](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Admiral%E2%9C%B5Kid) $85.00 85 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $33.41 33.41 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.39x 2026-11-11 14:07 UTC

[M4A1-S | Mecha Industries (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-mecha-industries-well-worn) [CaptainDaddy](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/CaptainDaddy) $85.00 85 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $118 118 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 1.39x 2026-11-11 14:01 UTC

[StatTrak™ M4A4 | X-Ray (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-x-ray-field-tested) [Gunfighter](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Gunfighter) $85.00 85 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $91.82 91.82 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 1.08x 2026-11-11 13:55 UTC

[★ Gut Knife | Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-ultraviolet-field-tested) [KRICO](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/KRICO) $85.00 85 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $55.67 55.67 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.65x 2026-11-11 13:55 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Autotronic (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bowie-knife-autotronic-battle-scarred) [Gunfighter](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Gunfighter) $85.00 85 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $105 105 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 1.23x 2026-11-11 13:55 UTC

[★ Falchion Knife | Boreal Forest (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-boreal-forest-minimal-wear) [KRICO](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/KRICO) $85.00 85 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $87.46 87.46 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 1.03x 2026-11-11 13:55 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Autotronic (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bowie-knife-autotronic-battle-scarred) [Gunfighter](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Gunfighter) $85.00 85 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $105 105 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 1.23x 2026-11-11 13:55 UTC

[StatTrak™ USP-S | Jawbreaker (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-jawbreaker-minimal-wear) [KRICO](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/KRICO) $85.00 85 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $18.16 18.16 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.21x 2026-11-11 13:55 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-navaja-knife-safari-mesh-field-tested) [Jam Jam](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Jam%20Jam) $85.00 85 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $54.86 54.86 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.65x 2026-11-11 13:55 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 3 Nov, 15:57 UTC | $85.00 | 86.65% | 38 |
| 3 Nov, 04:28 UTC | $85.00 | 86.88% | 38 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed #EB4B4B 0.1% gold 5.2% #ffd700 0.2% covert knife 30.6% Covert 5.4% covert 25.5% red 6.0% Immortal 3.0% industrial 5.0% Mil Spec Grade 4.0% classified 5.0% pink 3.0% Mythical 5.0% Classified 2.0% best hit $738 (8.69x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 86.7% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $86.65 on average: an expected loss of $13.35 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt