---
title: "Deadly Pepper X case on Hotpizza.gg: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Deadly Pepper X ($550.00) on Hotpizza.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.92% from 50 items with odds, observed 86.92% over 2,606 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/144
rendered: 2026-11-11T17:29Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hotpizza.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hotpizza) / [Deadly Pepper X](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/144)

# [Hotpizza.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hotpizza) · Deadly Pepper X

A case on Hotpizza.gg (Hellfire Cases), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hotpizza.gg's own item price converted from hotpizza point at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/144?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/144?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/144) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/144?window=all)

Price · $550.00 · 550 HOTPIZZA\_POINT

Advertised RTP · 87.92% · EV $483.54 from 50 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 86.92% · 2,606 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.2× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 39.3% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 81.7% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 88.78% ±4.47 307 openings

7 days · 86.97% ±1.67 2,218 openings

30 days · 86.92% ±1.54 2,606 openings

since tracking started · 86.92% ±1.54 2,606 openings

83.5% 88.8% 94.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/144?window=24h) | 307 | 88.78% ±4.47 | +0.4σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/144?window=7d) | 2,218 | 86.97% ±1.67 | −1.1σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/144) | 2,606 | 86.92% ±1.54 | −1.3σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/144?window=all) | 2,606 | 86.92% ±1.54 | −1.3σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 50 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,610 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Karambit \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-2) | 1 in 1,000 | $2,721 2,721 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.6% | 3 | 2.6 | 1.15× |
| [★ Karambit \| Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $2,361 2,361 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.5% | 3 | 2.6 | 1.15× |
| [★ Karambit \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-4) | 1 in 500 | $2,135 2,135 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.9% | 4 | 5.2 | 0.77× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $1,879 1,879 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.8% | 1 | 5.2 | 0.19× |
| [★ Karambit \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 500 | $1,632 1,632 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.7% | 5 | 5.2 | 0.96× |
| [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $1,400 1,400 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.6% | 6 | 5.2 | 1.15× |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 333 | $1,241 1,241 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.8% | 7 | 7.8 | 0.89× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 333 | $1,159 1,159 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.7% | 8 | 7.8 | 1.02× |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 250 | $1,026 1,026 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.8% | 5 | 10.4 | 0.48× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $1,018 1,018 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.1% | 16 | 13.0 | 1.23× |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 167 | $984 984 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.2% | 19 | 15.7 | 1.21× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-blue-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 167 | $916 916 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.1% | 13 | 15.7 | 0.83× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Damascus Steel (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-damascus-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 167 | $914 914 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.1% | 11 | 15.7 | 0.70× |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 167 | $890 890 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.1% | 16 | 15.7 | 1.02× |
| [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Lore (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 167 | $861 861 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.1% | 9 | 15.7 | 0.57× |
| [★ Karambit \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 167 | $843 843 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.0% | 9 | 15.7 | 0.57× |
| [★ Karambit \| Black Laminate (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-black-laminate-minimal-wear) | 1 in 167 | $802 802 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.0% | 16 | 15.7 | 1.02× |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 143 | $787 787 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.1% | 20 | 18.3 | 1.09× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Bright Water (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-bright-water-factory-new) | 1 in 143 | $715 715 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.0% | 17 | 18.3 | 0.93× |
| [★ Karambit \| Night (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-night-minimal-wear) | 1 in 143 | $695 695 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.0% | 11 | 18.3 | 0.60× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 143 | $695 695 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.0% | 23 | 18.3 | 1.26× |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 125 | $655 655 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.1% | 18 | 20.9 | 0.86× |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-case-hardened-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $641 641 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.3% | 29 | 26.1 | 1.11× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Lore (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bayonet-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $628 628 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.3% | 26 | 26.1 | 1.00× |
| [★ Karambit \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $622 622 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.3% | 22 | 26.1 | 0.84× |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 100 | $606 606 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.3% | 19 | 26.1 | 0.73× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Freehand (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-freehand-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $604 604 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.2% | 21 | 26.1 | 0.80× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 100 | $600 600 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.2% | 25 | 26.1 | 0.96× |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-case-hardened-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $560 560 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.2% | 22 | 26.1 | 0.84× |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-slaughter-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $560 560 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.2% | 24 | 26.1 | 0.92× |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $535 535 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.2% | 51 | 52.2 | 0.98× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Urban Masked (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-urban-masked-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $520 520 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.2% | 69 | 52.2 | 1.32× |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-marble-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $519 519 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.3% | 108 | 104.4 | 1.03× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 25 | $508 508 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.2% | 114 | 104.4 | 1.09× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife \| Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-stiletto-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $504 504 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.2% | 101 | 104.4 | 0.97× |
| [★ Karambit \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-rust-coat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20 | $501 501 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 5.2% | 121 | 130.5 | 0.93× |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Black Laminate (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-black-laminate-well-worn) | 1 in 20 | $489 489 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 5.1% | 138 | 130.5 | 1.06× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bayonet-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $481 481 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 5.0% | 143 | 130.5 | 1.10× |
| [★ Karambit \| Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-safari-mesh-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $448 448 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.6% | 125 | 130.5 | 0.96× |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $433 433 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.5% | 140 | 130.5 | 1.07× |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-case-hardened-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20 | $404 404 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.2% | 132 | 130.5 | 1.01× |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Stained (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-stained-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20 | $395 395 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.1% | 47 | 130.5 | 0.36× |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Urban Masked (Battle-Scarred) knife · knifes](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-urban-masked-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20 | $363 363 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.8% | 115 | 130.5 | 0.88× |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-damascus-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $360 360 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.7% | 152 | 130.5 | 1.16× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $351 351 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.6% | 133 | 130.5 | 1.02× |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $320 320 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.3% | 133 | 130.5 | 1.02× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-falchion-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $289 289 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.4% | 94 | 104.4 | 0.90× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bowie-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 43 | $247 247 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.2% | 51 | 60.0 | 0.85× |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 45 | $234 234 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.1% | 53 | 57.4 | 0.92× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Lore (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-falchion-knife-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 45 | $227 227 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.0% | 55 | 57.4 | 0.96× |

Values are Hotpizza.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hotpizza:api/data`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-2) [BuwW Key-Drop.com](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/BuwW%20Key-Drop.com) $550 550 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $2,721 2,721 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 4.95x 2026-11-11 16:33 UTC

[★ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-2) [Eraserhead](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Eraserhead) $550 550 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $2,721 2,721 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 4.95x 2026-11-11 03:27 UTC

[★ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-2) [FoxJohnnies](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/FoxJohnnies) $550 550 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $2,721 2,721 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 4.95x 2026-11-06 11:53 UTC

[★ Karambit | Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-fade-minimal-wear) [Coldhand](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Coldhand) $550 550 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $2,361 2,361 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 4.29x 2026-11-11 00:53 UTC

[★ Karambit | Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-fade-minimal-wear) [BANG](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/BANG) $550 550 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $2,361 2,361 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 4.29x 2026-11-08 08:59 UTC

[★ Karambit | Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-fade-minimal-wear) [Друг Глиста](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/%D0%94%D1%80%D1%83%D0%B3%20%D0%93%D0%BB%D0%B8%D1%81%D1%82%D0%B0) $550 550 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $2,361 2,361 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 4.29x 2026-11-06 02:31 UTC

[★ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-4) [Kriegbeat](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Kriegbeat) $550 550 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $2,135 2,135 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 3.88x 2026-11-06 03:58 UTC

[★ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-4) [Rippy](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Rippy) $550 550 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $2,135 2,135 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 3.88x 2026-11-05 16:43 UTC

[★ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-4) [\<3 х\_0](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/%3C3%20%D1%85_0) $550 550 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $2,135 2,135 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 3.88x 2026-11-04 23:00 UTC

[★ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-4) [ПингвиНагибатор](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/%D0%9F%D0%B8%D0%BD%D0%B3%D0%B2%D0%B8%D0%9D%D0%B0%D0%B3%D0%B8%D0%B1%D0%B0%D1%82%D0%BE%D1%80) $550 550 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $2,135 2,135 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 3.88x 2026-11-04 00:16 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hotpizza&case=144)

[★ Bayonet | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-crimson-web-minimal-wear) [Dragonborn](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Dragonborn) $550 550 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $351 351 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.64x 2026-11-11 17:28 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Stained (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-stained-battle-scarred) [Dragonborn](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Dragonborn) $550 550 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $395 395 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.72x 2026-11-11 17:28 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Urban Masked (Battle-Scarred) knife · knifes](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-urban-masked-battle-scarred) [Dragonborn](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Dragonborn) $550 550 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $363 363 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.66x 2026-11-11 17:28 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Urban Masked (Battle-Scarred) knife · knifes](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-urban-masked-battle-scarred) [Saithidora](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Saithidora) $550 550 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $363 363 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.66x 2026-11-11 17:25 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-crimson-web-minimal-wear) [Saithidora](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Saithidora) $550 550 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $351 351 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.64x 2026-11-11 17:25 UTC

[★ Karambit | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-field-tested) [Saithidora](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Saithidora) $550 550 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $622 622 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 1.13x 2026-11-11 17:25 UTC

[★ Karambit | Night (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-night-minimal-wear) [Saithidora](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Saithidora) $550 550 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $695 695 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 1.26x 2026-11-11 17:25 UTC

[★ Skeleton Knife | Marble Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-marble-fade-minimal-wear) [Ramza](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Ramza) $550 550 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $519 519 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.94x 2026-11-11 17:24 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Stained (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-stained-battle-scarred) [Ramza](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Ramza) $550 550 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $395 395 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.72x 2026-11-11 17:24 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Urban Masked (Battle-Scarred) knife · knifes](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-urban-masked-battle-scarred) [farmer.exe #RustCases](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/farmer.exe%20%23RustCases) $550 550 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $363 363 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.66x 2026-11-11 16:57 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 9 Nov, 14:05 UTC | $550 | 87.92% | 50 |
| 3 Nov, 15:57 UTC | $550 | 87.94% | 50 |
| 3 Nov, 04:28 UTC | $550 | 88.00% | 50 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 37.2% epic 0.6% #EB4B4B 2.4% covert knife 24.9% #ffd700 4.3% sunny 1.2% gold 6.4% legendary 7.0% Covert 7.0% Immortal 4.0% knifes 5.0% best hit $2,721 (4.95x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.92 on average: an expected loss of $12.08 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt