--- title: "Sneaky Squirrel 3% case on Hotpizza.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Sneaky Squirrel 3% ($32.23) on Hotpizza.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 62.70% from 9 items with odds, observed 57.93% over 8,834 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/152 rendered: 2026-11-11T21:20Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hotpizza.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hotpizza) / [Sneaky Squirrel 3%](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/152) # [Hotpizza.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hotpizza) · Sneaky Squirrel 3% A case on Hotpizza.gg (Epic Risky Drop), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hotpizza.gg's own item price converted from hotpizza point at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/152?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/152?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/152) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/152?window=all) Price · $32.23 · 32.23 HOTPIZZA\_POINT Advertised RTP · 62.70% · EV $20.21 from 9 items Observed RTP, 30d · 57.93% · 8,834 openings, odds method Variance · 11.6× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 63 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 97.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 43.62% ±20.79 1,029 openings 7 days · 57.45% ±7.92 7,190 openings 30 days · 57.93% ±7.15 8,834 openings since tracking started · 57.93% ±7.15 8,834 openings 22.0% 44.0% 66.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/152?window=24h) | 1,029 | 43.62% ±20.8 | −1.8σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/152?window=7d) | 7,190 | 57.45% ±7.92 | −1.4σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/152) | 8,834 | 57.93% ±7.15 | −1.4σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/152?window=all) | 8,834 | 57.93% ±7.15 | −1.4σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 8,855 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-skeleton-knife-doppler-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,081 1,081 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 5.4% | 9 | 8.9 | 1.02× | | [★ Skeleton Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $800 800 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.0% | 9 | 8.9 | 1.02× | | [★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) StatTrak · knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $756 756 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 7.5% | 19 | 17.7 | 1.07× | | [★ Skeleton Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $702 702 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 6.9% | 14 | 17.7 | 0.79× | | [★ Skeleton Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $639 639 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 31.6% | 80 | 88.5 | 0.90× | | [★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife \| Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-skeleton-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 71 | $562 562 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 38.9% | 111 | 124.0 | 0.90× | | [Berlin 2019 Legends Autograph Capsule container](https://gambatracker.com/items/berlin-2019-legends-autograph-capsule) | 32.3% | $1.58 1.58 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.5% | 2,808 | 2860.2 | 0.98× | | [Half-Life: Alyx Sticker Capsule container](https://gambatracker.com/items/half-life-alyx-sticker-capsule) | 32.3% | $1.00 1 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.6% | 2,969 | 2860.2 | 1.04× | | [Slid3 Capsule container · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/slid3-capsule) | 32.4% | $1.00 1 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.6% | 2,836 | 2869.0 | 0.99× | Values are Hotpizza.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hotpizza:api/data`, 11 Nov, 20:06 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-skeleton-knife-doppler-minimal-wear) [Sharkmaid](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Sharkmaid) $32.23 32.23 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $1,140 1,140 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 35.37x 2026-11-08 19:37 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-skeleton-knife-doppler-minimal-wear) [✪Borjomi✪](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/%E2%9C%AABorjomi%E2%9C%AA) $32.23 32.23 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $1,140 1,140 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 35.37x 2026-11-08 08:09 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-skeleton-knife-doppler-minimal-wear) [AdriaN ✞](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/AdriaN%20%E2%9C%9E) $32.23 32.23 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $1,140 1,140 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 35.37x 2026-11-06 18:47 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-skeleton-knife-doppler-minimal-wear) [noexik](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/noexik) $32.23 32.23 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $1,140 1,140 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 35.37x 2026-11-04 11:54 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-skeleton-knife-doppler-minimal-wear) [Gushzx](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Gushzx) $32.23 32.23 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $1,140 1,140 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 35.37x 2026-11-04 10:55 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-skeleton-knife-doppler-minimal-wear) [Cpt. Jack](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Cpt.%20Jack) $32.23 32.23 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $1,081 1,081 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 33.55x 2026-11-11 18:15 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-skeleton-knife-doppler-minimal-wear) [Harumi](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Harumi) $32.23 32.23 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $1,081 1,081 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 33.55x 2026-11-11 07:06 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-skeleton-knife-doppler-minimal-wear) [A gay pfp](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/A%20gay%20pfp) $32.23 32.23 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $1,081 1,081 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 33.55x 2026-11-10 19:32 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-skeleton-knife-doppler-minimal-wear) [FXrenats](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/FXrenats) $32.23 32.23 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $1,081 1,081 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 33.55x 2026-11-10 06:38 UTC [★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-minimal-wear) [Neo\_Bahamut\_19](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Neo_Bahamut_19) $32.23 32.23 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $802 802 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 24.87x 2026-11-09 02:29 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hotpizza&case=152) [Berlin 2019 Legends Autograph Capsule container](https://gambatracker.com/items/berlin-2019-legends-autograph-capsule) [ChemicalHamster](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/ChemicalHamster) $32.23 32.23 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $1.58 1.58 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.05x 2026-11-11 21:19 UTC [Berlin 2019 Legends Autograph Capsule container](https://gambatracker.com/items/berlin-2019-legends-autograph-capsule) [ChemicalHamster](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/ChemicalHamster) $32.23 32.23 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $1.58 1.58 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.05x 2026-11-11 21:19 UTC [Half-Life: Alyx Sticker Capsule container](https://gambatracker.com/items/half-life-alyx-sticker-capsule) [ChemicalHamster](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/ChemicalHamster) $32.23 32.23 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $1.00 1 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.03x 2026-11-11 21:19 UTC [Berlin 2019 Legends Autograph Capsule container](https://gambatracker.com/items/berlin-2019-legends-autograph-capsule) [ChemicalHamster](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/ChemicalHamster) $32.23 32.23 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $1.58 1.58 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.05x 2026-11-11 21:19 UTC [Slid3 Capsule container · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/slid3-capsule) [Festive Hitman](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Festive%20Hitman) $32.23 32.23 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $1.00 1 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.03x 2026-11-11 21:17 UTC [Half-Life: Alyx Sticker Capsule container](https://gambatracker.com/items/half-life-alyx-sticker-capsule) [Screechy Kai](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Screechy%20Kai) $32.23 32.23 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $1.00 1 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.03x 2026-11-11 21:17 UTC [Slid3 Capsule container · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/slid3-capsule) [iSynden](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/iSynden) $32.23 32.23 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $1.00 1 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.03x 2026-11-11 21:15 UTC [Berlin 2019 Legends Autograph Capsule container](https://gambatracker.com/items/berlin-2019-legends-autograph-capsule) [bro u so good](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/bro%20u%20so%20good) $32.23 32.23 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $1.58 1.58 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.05x 2026-11-11 21:15 UTC [Berlin 2019 Legends Autograph Capsule container](https://gambatracker.com/items/berlin-2019-legends-autograph-capsule) [Body. 240hz](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Body.%20240hz) $32.23 32.23 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $1.58 1.58 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.05x 2026-11-11 21:15 UTC [Slid3 Capsule container · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/slid3-capsule) [Draxia](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Draxia) $32.23 32.23 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $1.00 1 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.03x 2026-11-11 21:15 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 9 Nov, 14:05 UTC | $32.23 | 62.70% | 9 | | 3 Nov, 04:28 UTC | $32.23 | 63.12% | 9 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed other 64.9% covert knife 0.3% legendary 1.0% covert 1.4% #B0C3D9 32.4% best hit $1,140 (35.37x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 62.7% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $62.70 on average: an expected loss of $37.30 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt