--- title: "Clutch Cat 5% case on Hotpizza.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Clutch Cat 5% ($13.31) on Hotpizza.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 75.15% from 11 items with odds, observed 64.48% over 11K openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/153 rendered: 2026-11-11T23:56Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hotpizza.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hotpizza) / [Clutch Cat 5%](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/153) # [Hotpizza.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hotpizza) · Clutch Cat 5% A case on Hotpizza.gg (Epic Risky Drop), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hotpizza.gg's own item price converted from hotpizza point at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/153?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/153?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/153) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/153?window=all) Price · $13.31 · 13.31 HOTPIZZA\_POINT Advertised RTP · 75.15% · EV $10.00 from 11 items Observed RTP, 30d · 64.48% · 11K openings, odds method Variance · 14.0× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 63 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 95.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 65.12% ±19.75 1,381 openings 7 days · 63.43% ±7.84 8,782 openings 30 days · 64.48% ±7.01 11K openings since tracking started · 64.48% ±7.01 11K openings 44.5% 65.0% 85.5% **Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 75.20% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (57.47% – 71.49%, 10,994 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/153?window=24h) | 1,381 | 65.12% ±19.7 | −1.0σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/153?window=7d) | 8,782 | 63.43% ±7.84 | −2.9σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/153) | 11K | 64.48% ±7.01 | −3.0σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/153?window=all) | 11K | 64.48% ±7.01 | −3.0σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 11K openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ StatTrak™ Classic Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-classic-knife-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $656 656 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 6.6% | 11 | 11.0 | 1.00× | | [★ Classic Knife \| Night Stripe (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-night-stripe-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $587 587 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 5.9% | 9 | 11.0 | 0.82× | | [★ Classic Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $401 401 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.0% | 8 | 11.0 | 0.73× | | [★ Classic Knife \| Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · knifes](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $380 380 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.8% | 3 | 11.0 | 0.27× | | [★ StatTrak™ Classic Knife \| Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-classic-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $312 312 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 6.2% | 11 | 22.1 | 0.50× | | [★ StatTrak™ Classic Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-classic-knife-slaughter-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $250 250 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 25.0% | 98 | 110.3 | 0.89× | | [★ Classic Knife \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-case-hardened-battle-scarred) | 1 in 29 | $142 142 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 48.2% | 96 | 375.1 | 0.26× | | [Sticker \| Fnatic \| 2020 RMR sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-fnatic-2020-rmr) | 23.8% | $0.06 0.06 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.1% | 2,664 | 2620.1 | 1.02× | | [Sticker \| Spirit \| 2020 RMR sticker · 7](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-spirit-2020-rmr) | 23.8% | $0.06 0.06 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.1% | 2,612 | 2620.1 | 1.00× | | [Sticker \| Evil Geniuses \| 2020 RMR sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-evil-geniuses-2020-rmr) | 23.8% | $0.01 0.01 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.0% | 2,648 | 2620.1 | 1.01× | | [Sticker \| Ninjas in Pyjamas \| 2020 RMR sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ninjas-in-pyjamas-2020-rmr) | 23.8% | $0.01 0.01 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.0% | 2,636 | 2620.1 | 1.01× | Values are Hotpizza.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hotpizza:api/data`, 11 Nov, 20:06 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ StatTrak™ Classic Knife | Fade (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-classic-knife-fade-minimal-wear) [Calamity522](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Calamity522) $13.31 13.31 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $656 656 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 49.30x 2026-11-10 09:23 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Classic Knife | Fade (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-classic-knife-fade-minimal-wear) [0lle.](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/0lle.) $13.31 13.31 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $656 656 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 49.30x 2026-11-10 04:51 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Classic Knife | Fade (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-classic-knife-fade-minimal-wear) [Ravno \[DPCK\] Rath](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Ravno%20%5BDPCK%5D%20Rath) $13.31 13.31 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $656 656 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 49.30x 2026-11-09 07:17 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Classic Knife | Fade (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-classic-knife-fade-minimal-wear) [怜幽](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/%E6%80%9C%E5%B9%BD) $13.31 13.31 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $656 656 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 49.30x 2026-11-08 09:15 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Classic Knife | Fade (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-classic-knife-fade-minimal-wear) [-Vent\_Cleaner-](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/-Vent_Cleaner-) $13.31 13.31 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $656 656 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 49.30x 2026-11-07 09:59 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Classic Knife | Fade (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-classic-knife-fade-minimal-wear) [Buligrande](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Buligrande) $13.31 13.31 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $656 656 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 49.30x 2026-11-06 11:31 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Classic Knife | Fade (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-classic-knife-fade-minimal-wear) [It's Always Ninjas](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/It's%20Always%20Ninjas) $13.31 13.31 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $656 656 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 49.30x 2026-11-06 07:36 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Classic Knife | Fade (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-classic-knife-fade-minimal-wear) [Pippo](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Pippo) $13.31 13.31 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $656 656 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 49.30x 2026-11-05 12:07 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Classic Knife | Fade (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-classic-knife-fade-minimal-wear) [Freedom](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Freedom) $13.31 13.31 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $656 656 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 49.30x 2026-11-05 06:16 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Classic Knife | Fade (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-classic-knife-fade-minimal-wear) [pceboris70](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/pceboris70) $13.31 13.31 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $656 656 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 49.30x 2026-11-04 15:32 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hotpizza&case=153) [Sticker | Spirit | 2020 RMR sticker · 7](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-spirit-2020-rmr) [Skuttlespike](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Skuttlespike) $13.31 13.31 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $0.06 0.06 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.00x 2026-11-11 23:44 UTC [Sticker | Evil Geniuses | 2020 RMR sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-evil-geniuses-2020-rmr) [Ethan204](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Ethan204) $13.31 13.31 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $0.01 0.01 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.00x 2026-11-11 23:44 UTC [Sticker | Fnatic | 2020 RMR sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-fnatic-2020-rmr) [Humi](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Humi) $13.31 13.31 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $0.06 0.06 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.00x 2026-11-11 23:44 UTC [Sticker | Spirit | 2020 RMR sticker · 7](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-spirit-2020-rmr) [orange](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/orange) $13.31 13.31 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $0.06 0.06 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.00x 2026-11-11 23:44 UTC [Sticker | Spirit | 2020 RMR sticker · 7](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-spirit-2020-rmr) [1emerson1](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/1emerson1) $13.31 13.31 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $0.06 0.06 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.00x 2026-11-11 23:40 UTC [Sticker | Ninjas in Pyjamas | 2020 RMR sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ninjas-in-pyjamas-2020-rmr) [ACE\_Gio](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/ACE_Gio) $13.31 13.31 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $0.01 0.01 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.00x 2026-11-11 23:36 UTC [Sticker | Evil Geniuses | 2020 RMR sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-evil-geniuses-2020-rmr) [Goopy rustchance.com](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Goopy%20rustchance.com) $13.31 13.31 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $0.01 0.01 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.00x 2026-11-11 23:36 UTC [Sticker | Ninjas in Pyjamas | 2020 RMR sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ninjas-in-pyjamas-2020-rmr) [Atlemuo](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Atlemuo) $13.31 13.31 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $0.01 0.01 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.00x 2026-11-11 23:36 UTC [Sticker | Spirit | 2020 RMR sticker · 7](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-spirit-2020-rmr) [ISHITONPPL](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/ISHITONPPL) $13.31 13.31 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $0.06 0.06 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.00x 2026-11-11 23:35 UTC [Sticker | Spirit | 2020 RMR sticker · 7](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-spirit-2020-rmr) [Father Davis](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Father%20Davis) $13.31 13.31 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $0.06 0.06 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.00x 2026-11-11 23:35 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 9 Nov, 14:05 UTC | $13.31 | 75.15% | 11 | | 3 Nov, 04:28 UTC | $13.31 | 75.22% | 11 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed 7 23.8% covert 0.3% knifes 0.1% epic 0.2% covert knife 4.4% Rare 47.5% violet 23.8% best hit $656 (49.30x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 75.1% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $75.15 on average: an expected loss of $24.85 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt