--- title: "Tactician Panther 4% case on Hotpizza.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Tactician Panther 4% ($66.00) on Hotpizza.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 101.50% from 11 items with odds, observed 95.14% over 6,894 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/154 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:51Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hotpizza.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hotpizza) / [Tactician Panther 4%](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/154) # [Hotpizza.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hotpizza) · Tactician Panther 4% A case on Hotpizza.gg (Epic Risky Drop), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hotpizza.gg's own item price converted from hotpizza point at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/154?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/154?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/154) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/154?window=all) Price · $66.00 · 66 HOTPIZZA\_POINT Advertised RTP · 101.50% · EV $66.99 from 11 items Observed RTP, 30d · 95.14% · 6,894 openings, odds method Variance · 30.9× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 63 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 96.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 90.67% ±38.30 810 openings 7 days · 99.48% ±14.34 5,780 openings 30 days · 95.14% ±13.13 6,894 openings since tracking started · 95.14% ±13.13 6,894 openings 51.5% 90.5% 129.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/154?window=24h) | 810 | 90.67% ±38.3 | −0.6σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/154?window=7d) | 5,780 | 99.48% ±14.3 | −0.3σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/154) | 6,894 | 95.14% ±13.1 | −1.0σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/154?window=all) | 6,894 | 95.14% ±13.1 | −1.0σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 6,913 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 1,000 | $6,082 6,082 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 9.1% | 8 | 6.9 | 1.16× | | [★ Karambit \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-1) | 1 in 1,000 | $4,512 4,512 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 6.7% | 3 | 6.9 | 0.43× | | [★ Karambit \| Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 333 | $2,452 2,452 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 11.0% | 18 | 20.7 | 0.87× | | [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 333 | $2,147 2,147 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 9.6% | 26 | 20.7 | 1.25× | | [★ Karambit \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4) knife · #ffd700 · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-4) | 1 in 250 | $1,836 1,836 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 11.0% | 20 | 27.7 | 0.72× | | [★ Karambit \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-3) | 1 in 250 | $1,769 1,769 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 10.6% | 24 | 27.7 | 0.87× | | [★ Karambit \| Autotronic (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-autotronic-well-worn) | 1 in 42 | $1,000 1,000 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 35.8% | 167 | 165.9 | 1.01× | | [Chroma Case container · Base Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/chroma-case) | 24.0% | $4.95 4.95 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.8% | 1,635 | 1659.1 | 0.99× | | [Chroma 2 Case container · base](https://gambatracker.com/items/chroma-2-case) | 24.0% | $4.47 4.47 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.6% | 1,635 | 1659.1 | 0.99× | | [Gamma 2 Case container · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/gamma-2-case) | 24.0% | $4.10 4.1 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.5% | 1,661 | 1659.1 | 1.00× | | [Gamma Case container · base](https://gambatracker.com/items/gamma-case) | 24.0% | $3.86 3.86 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.4% | 1,716 | 1659.1 | 1.03× | Values are Hotpizza.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hotpizza:api/data`, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) [♉HAIL♉](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/%E2%99%89HAIL%E2%99%89) $66.00 66 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $6,082 6,082 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 92.15x 2026-11-11 10:28 UTC [★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) [PawPawPanda](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/PawPawPanda) $66.00 66 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $6,082 6,082 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 92.15x 2026-11-10 09:35 UTC [★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) [GopherPics](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/GopherPics) $66.00 66 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $6,082 6,082 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 92.15x 2026-11-08 09:52 UTC [★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) [clickz](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/clickz) $66.00 66 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $6,082 6,082 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 92.15x 2026-11-07 10:09 UTC [★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) [CharaZX](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/CharaZX) $66.00 66 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $6,082 6,082 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 92.15x 2026-11-07 00:38 UTC [★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) [Kirill\_DeLorean](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Kirill_DeLorean) $66.00 66 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $6,082 6,082 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 92.15x 2026-11-06 21:17 UTC [★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) [P A N D A](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/P%20A%20N%20D%20A) $66.00 66 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $6,082 6,082 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 92.15x 2026-11-04 16:49 UTC [★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) [☢-Thiago-☢](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/%E2%98%A2-Thiago-%E2%98%A2) $66.00 66 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $6,082 6,082 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 92.15x 2026-11-04 12:09 UTC [★ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-1) [Shadowblades](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Shadowblades) $66.00 66 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $4,512 4,512 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 68.36x 2026-11-08 20:28 UTC [★ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-1) [Black\_Man10](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Black_Man10) $66.00 66 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $4,512 4,512 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 68.36x 2026-11-07 19:56 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hotpizza&case=154) [Gamma 2 Case container · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/gamma-2-case) [BriBeans](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/BriBeans) $66.00 66 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $4.10 4.1 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.06x 2026-11-11 13:50 UTC [Gamma Case container · base](https://gambatracker.com/items/gamma-case) [BriBeans](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/BriBeans) $66.00 66 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $3.86 3.86 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.06x 2026-11-11 13:50 UTC [Gamma Case container · base](https://gambatracker.com/items/gamma-case) [Camo](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Camo) $66.00 66 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $3.86 3.86 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.06x 2026-11-11 13:49 UTC [Gamma Case container · base](https://gambatracker.com/items/gamma-case) [HOOOODINI](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/HOOOODINI) $66.00 66 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $3.86 3.86 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.06x 2026-11-11 13:45 UTC [Chroma Case container · Base Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/chroma-case) [HOOOODINI](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/HOOOODINI) $66.00 66 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $4.95 4.95 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.08x 2026-11-11 13:45 UTC [Chroma 2 Case container · base](https://gambatracker.com/items/chroma-2-case) [ImStussy](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/ImStussy) $66.00 66 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $4.47 4.47 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.07x 2026-11-11 13:44 UTC [Gamma Case container · base](https://gambatracker.com/items/gamma-case) [Chazam Carai](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Chazam%20Carai) $66.00 66 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $3.86 3.86 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.06x 2026-11-11 13:35 UTC [Gamma Case container · base](https://gambatracker.com/items/gamma-case) [Chazam Carai](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Chazam%20Carai) $66.00 66 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $3.86 3.86 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.06x 2026-11-11 13:35 UTC [Chroma 2 Case container · base](https://gambatracker.com/items/chroma-2-case) [Buggs](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Buggs) $66.00 66 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $4.47 4.47 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.07x 2026-11-11 13:35 UTC [Gamma Case container · base](https://gambatracker.com/items/gamma-case) [40kg kid](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/40kg%20kid) $66.00 66 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $3.86 3.86 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.06x 2026-11-11 13:30 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:28 UTC | $66.00 | 101.50% | 11 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 3.3% legendary 0.3% #ffd700 0.4% Base Grade 24.0% base 48.0% #B0C3D9 24.0% best hit $6,082 (92.15x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 101.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $101.50 on average: an expected loss of $0.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt