---
title: "Rush Rat case on Hotpizza.gg: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Rush Rat ($1.00) on Hotpizza.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 117.79% from 33 items with odds, observed 111.54% over 45K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/155
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:33Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hotpizza.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hotpizza) / [Rush Rat](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/155)

# [Hotpizza.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hotpizza) · Rush Rat

A case on Hotpizza.gg (Epic Risky Drop), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hotpizza.gg's own item price converted from hotpizza point at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/155?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/155?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/155) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/155?window=all)

Price · $1.00 · 1 HOTPIZZA\_POINT

Advertised RTP · 117.79% · EV $1.18 from 33 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 111.54% · 45K openings, odds method

Variance · 15.3× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 33 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 81.3% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 105.23% ±10.56 5,275 openings

7 days · 112.96% ±3.94 37.8K openings

30 days · 111.54% ±3.62 45K openings

since tracking started · 111.54% ±3.62 45K openings

94.0% 106.3% 118.5%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 117.80% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (107.93% – 115.16%, 44,985 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/155?window=24h) | 5,275 | 105.23% ±10.6 | −2.3σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/155?window=7d) | 37.8K | 112.96% ±3.94 | −2.4σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/155) | 45K | 111.54% ±3.62 | −3.4σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/155?window=all) | 45K | 111.54% ±3.62 | −3.4σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 33 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 45.1K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Charm \| 8 Ball IGL charm · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-8-ball-igl) | 1 in 333 | $44.69 44.69 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 11.4% | 125 | 135.3 | 0.92× |
| [Charm \| Lil' Eldritch charm · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-eldritch) | 1 in 333 | $30.95 30.95 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 7.9% | 122 | 135.3 | 0.90× |
| [Charm \| Quick Silver charm · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-quick-silver) | 1 in 333 | $26.81 26.81 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 6.8% | 115 | 135.3 | 0.85× |
| [Charm \| Hot Howl charm · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-hot-howl) | 1 in 333 | $23.82 23.82 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 6.1% | 135 | 135.3 | 1.00× |
| [Charm \| Baby Karat T charm · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-baby-karat-t) | 1 in 333 | $16.80 16.8 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.3% | 153 | 135.3 | 1.13× |
| [Charm \| Lil' Ferno charm · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-ferno) | 1 in 333 | $15.83 15.83 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.0% | 110 | 135.3 | 0.81× |
| [Charm \| Glitter Bomb charm · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-glitter-bomb) | 1 in 250 | $13.98 13.98 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.7% | 171 | 180.3 | 0.95× |
| [Charm \| Hot Wurst charm · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-hot-wurst) | 1 in 250 | $11.80 11.8 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.0% | 182 | 180.3 | 1.01× |
| [Charm \| Diamond Dog charm · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-diamond-dog) | 1 in 250 | $7.06 7.06 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.4% | 166 | 180.3 | 0.92× |
| [Charm \| Lil' Happy charm · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-happy) | 1 in 250 | $6.30 6.3 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.1% | 162 | 180.3 | 0.90× |
| [Charm \| Lil' Hero charm · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-hero) | 1 in 200 | $4.99 4.99 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.1% | 194 | 225.4 | 0.86× |
| [Charm \| Lil' Monster charm · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-monster) | 1 in 143 | $3.60 3.6 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.1% | 296 | 315.6 | 0.94× |
| [Charm \| Die-cast AK charm · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-die-cast-ak) | 1 in 100 | $2.97 2.97 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.5% | 405 | 450.9 | 0.90× |
| [Charm \| Lil' Goop charm · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-goop) | 1 in 100 | $2.11 2.11 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.8% | 421 | 450.9 | 0.93× |
| [Charm \| Lil' Moments charm · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-moments) | 1 in 100 | $1.86 1.86 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.6% | 387 | 450.9 | 0.86× |
| [Charm \| Lil' Squirt charm · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-squirt) | 1 in 100 | $1.74 1.74 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.5% | 402 | 450.9 | 0.89× |
| [Charm \| Lil' Prick charm · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-prick) | 1 in 63 | $1.56 1.56 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.1% | 677 | 721.4 | 0.94× |
| [Charm \| Pocket Pop charm · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-pocket-pop) | 1 in 40 | $1.19 1.19 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.5% | 997 | 1127.2 | 0.88× |
| [Charm \| Disco MAC charm · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-disco-mac) | 1 in 33 | $1.16 1.16 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.0% | 1,178 | 1352.6 | 0.87× |
| [Charm \| Lil' Teacup charm · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-teacup) | 1 in 33 | $1.02 1.02 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.6% | 1,215 | 1352.6 | 0.90× |
| [Charm \| Chicken Lil' charm · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-chicken-lil) | 1 in 33 | $0.73 0.73 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.9% | 1,379 | 1352.6 | 1.02× |
| [Charm \| That's Bananas charm · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-thats-bananas) | 1 in 33 | $0.64 0.64 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.6% | 1,414 | 1352.6 | 1.05× |
| [Charm \| POP Art charm · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-pop-art) | 1 in 25 | $0.55 0.55 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.9% | 1,801 | 1803.5 | 1.00× |
| [Charm \| Hot Hands charm · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-hot-hands) | 1 in 25 | $0.46 0.46 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.6% | 1,811 | 1803.5 | 1.00× |
| [Charm \| Lil' No. 2 charm · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-no-2) | 1 in 25 | $0.42 0.42 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.4% | 1,896 | 1803.5 | 1.05× |
| [Charm \| Pinch O' Salt charm · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-pinch-o-salt) | 1 in 25 | $0.41 0.41 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.4% | 1,836 | 1803.5 | 1.02× |
| [Charm \| Hot Sauce charm · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-hot-sauce) | 1 in 17 | $0.39 0.39 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.0% | 2,752 | 2705.2 | 1.02× |
| [Charm \| Whittle Knife charm · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-whittle-knife) | 1 in 17 | $0.36 0.36 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.8% | 2,743 | 2705.2 | 1.01× |
| [Charm \| Lil' Squatch charm · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-squatch) | 1 in 13 | $0.34 0.34 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.3% | 3,731 | 3607.0 | 1.03× |
| [Charm \| Lil' Crass charm · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-crass) | 1 in 11 | $0.30 0.3 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.3% | 4,146 | 4057.8 | 1.02× |
| [Charm \| Lil' Zen charm · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-zen) | 10.1% | $0.29 0.29 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.5% | 4,655 | 4553.8 | 1.02× |
| [Charm \| Lil' Cap Gun charm · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-cap-gun) | 10.1% | $0.23 0.23 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.0% | 4,724 | 4553.8 | 1.04× |
| [Charm \| Backsplash charm · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-backsplash) | 10.1% | $0.21 0.21 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.8% | 4,586 | 4553.8 | 1.01× |

Values are Hotpizza.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hotpizza:api/data`, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hotpizza&case=155)

[Charm | Die-cast AK charm · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-die-cast-ak) [Shmichael](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Shmichael) $1.00 1 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $2.97 2.97 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 2.97x 2026-11-11 13:33 UTC

[Charm | Lil' Goop charm · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-goop) [Shmichael](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Shmichael) $1.00 1 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $2.11 2.11 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 2.11x 2026-11-11 13:33 UTC

[Charm | Disco MAC charm · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-disco-mac) [♥Kanvo1d♥](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/%E2%99%A5Kanvo1d%E2%99%A5) $1.00 1 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $1.16 1.16 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 1.16x 2026-11-11 13:29 UTC

[Charm | POP Art charm · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-pop-art) [♥Kanvo1d♥](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/%E2%99%A5Kanvo1d%E2%99%A5) $1.00 1 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $0.55 0.55 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.55x 2026-11-11 13:29 UTC

[Charm | Whittle Knife charm · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-whittle-knife) [Ethiamach1](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Ethiamach1) $1.00 1 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $0.36 0.36 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.36x 2026-11-11 13:28 UTC

[Charm | Lil' Zen charm · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-zen) [Ethiamach1](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Ethiamach1) $1.00 1 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $0.29 0.29 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.29x 2026-11-11 13:28 UTC

[Charm | Lil' Squatch charm · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-squatch) [Ethiamach1](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Ethiamach1) $1.00 1 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $0.34 0.34 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.34x 2026-11-11 13:28 UTC

[Charm | Pinch O' Salt charm · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-pinch-o-salt) [Ethiamach1](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Ethiamach1) $1.00 1 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $0.41 0.41 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.41x 2026-11-11 13:28 UTC

[Charm | Lil' Squatch charm · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-squatch) [AlokinSkyLord123](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/AlokinSkyLord123) $1.00 1 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $0.34 0.34 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.34x 2026-11-11 13:28 UTC

[Charm | Lil' Zen charm · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-zen) [smelvin](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/smelvin) $1.00 1 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $0.29 0.29 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.29x 2026-11-11 13:28 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 3 Nov, 04:28 UTC | $1.00 | 117.79% | 33 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed Ancient 0.9% red 0.7% #eb4b4b 1.0% rare 0.4% #d32ce6 3.5% uncommon 28.7% #8847ff 24.5% #4b69ff 24.2% Rare 16.1% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 117.8% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $117.79 on average: an expected loss of $0.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt