--- title: "Peeky Penguin 2% case on Hotpizza.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Peeky Penguin 2% ($166.00) on Hotpizza.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.60% from 8 items with odds, observed 95.68% over 5,242 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/156 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:45Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hotpizza.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hotpizza) / [Peeky Penguin 2%](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/156) # [Hotpizza.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hotpizza) · Peeky Penguin 2% A case on Hotpizza.gg (Epic Risky Drop), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hotpizza.gg's own item price converted from hotpizza point at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/156?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/156?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/156) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/156?window=all) Price · $166.00 · 166 HOTPIZZA\_POINT Advertised RTP · 90.60% · EV $150.40 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 95.68% · 5,242 openings, odds method Variance · 40.3× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 63 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 98.4% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 92.73% ±48.16 667 openings 7 days · 88.19% ±18.77 4,389 openings 30 days · 95.68% ±17.18 5,242 openings since tracking started · 95.68% ±17.18 5,242 openings 44.0% 92.8% 141.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/156?window=24h) | 667 | 92.73% ±48.2 | +0.1σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/156?window=7d) | 4,389 | 88.19% ±18.8 | −0.3σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/156) | 5,242 | 95.68% ±17.2 | +0.6σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/156?window=all) | 5,242 | 95.68% ±17.2 | +0.6σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5,268 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $16.2K 16,174 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 10.8% | 9 | 5.3 | 1.71× | | [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Minimal Wear) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 500 | $10.5K 10,531 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 14.0% | 9 | 10.5 | 0.85× | | [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 250 | $8,347 8,347 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 22.2% | 21 | 21.1 | 1.00× | | [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-battle-scarred) | 1 in 111 | $6,409 6,409 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 38.4% | 47 | 47.4 | 0.99× | | [Chem-Haz Specialist \| SWAT agent · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/chem-haz-specialist-swat) | 24.5% | $28.26 28.26 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.6% | 1,288 | 1290.7 | 1.00× | | [Seal Team 6 Soldier \| NSWC SEAL agent · distinguished](https://gambatracker.com/items/seal-team-6-soldier-nswc-seal) | 24.5% | $20.90 20.9 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.4% | 1,276 | 1290.7 | 0.99× | | ['Two Times' McCoy \| USAF TACP agent · superior](https://gambatracker.com/items/two-times-mccoy-usaf-tacp) | 24.5% | $20.38 20.38 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.3% | 1,308 | 1290.7 | 1.01× | | [Markus Delrow \| FBI HRT agent · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/markus-delrow-fbi-hrt) | 24.9% | $20.31 20.31 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.4% | 1,310 | 1311.7 | 1.00× | Values are Hotpizza.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hotpizza:api/data`, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-factory-new) [hyu cocu](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/hyu%20cocu) $166 166 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $16.2K 16,174 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 97.43x 2026-11-11 04:33 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-factory-new) [Slavoj Žižek](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Slavoj%20%C5%BDi%C5%BEek) $166 166 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $16.2K 16,174 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 97.43x 2026-11-10 07:06 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-factory-new) [Я НЕ В ФОРМЕ#SORRY](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/%D0%AF%20%D0%9D%D0%95%20%D0%92%20%D0%A4%D0%9E%D0%A0%D0%9C%D0%95%23SORRY) $166 166 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $16.2K 16,174 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 97.43x 2026-11-10 00:09 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-factory-new) [Chef Dave](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Chef%20Dave) $166 166 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $16.2K 16,174 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 97.43x 2026-11-08 11:04 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-factory-new) [Bellosmell](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Bellosmell) $166 166 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $16.2K 16,174 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 97.43x 2026-11-08 08:39 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-factory-new) [Hyzer](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Hyzer) $166 166 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $16.2K 16,174 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 97.43x 2026-11-07 07:03 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-factory-new) [łuki szybkie palce](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/%C5%82uki%20szybkie%20palce) $166 166 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $16.2K 16,174 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 97.43x 2026-11-04 12:16 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-factory-new) [Choco](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Choco) $166 166 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $16.2K 16,174 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 97.43x 2026-11-03 20:06 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-factory-new) [Fate](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Fate) $166 166 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $16.2K 16,174 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 97.43x 2026-11-03 06:27 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Minimal Wear) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-minimal-wear) [HappiLP](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/HappiLP) $166 166 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $10.5K 10,531 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 63.44x 2026-11-06 22:24 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hotpizza&case=156) [Chem-Haz Specialist | SWAT agent · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/chem-haz-specialist-swat) [ake eilish](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/ake%20eilish) $166 166 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $28.26 28.26 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.17x 2026-11-11 13:43 UTC [Markus Delrow | FBI HRT agent · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/markus-delrow-fbi-hrt) [забивной кириешеk](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/%D0%B7%D0%B0%D0%B1%D0%B8%D0%B2%D0%BD%D0%BE%D0%B9%20%D0%BA%D0%B8%D1%80%D0%B8%D0%B5%D1%88%D0%B5k) $166 166 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $20.31 20.31 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.12x 2026-11-11 13:43 UTC [Chem-Haz Specialist | SWAT agent · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/chem-haz-specialist-swat) [ake eilish](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/ake%20eilish) $166 166 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $28.26 28.26 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.17x 2026-11-11 13:43 UTC ['Two Times' McCoy | USAF TACP agent · superior](https://gambatracker.com/items/two-times-mccoy-usaf-tacp) [забивной кириешеk](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/%D0%B7%D0%B0%D0%B1%D0%B8%D0%B2%D0%BD%D0%BE%D0%B9%20%D0%BA%D0%B8%D1%80%D0%B8%D0%B5%D1%88%D0%B5k) $166 166 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $20.38 20.38 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.12x 2026-11-11 13:43 UTC [Chem-Haz Specialist | SWAT agent · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/chem-haz-specialist-swat) [Bod](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Bod) $166 166 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $28.26 28.26 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.17x 2026-11-11 13:22 UTC [Markus Delrow | FBI HRT agent · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/markus-delrow-fbi-hrt) [Bod](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Bod) $166 166 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $20.31 20.31 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.12x 2026-11-11 13:22 UTC ['Two Times' McCoy | USAF TACP agent · superior](https://gambatracker.com/items/two-times-mccoy-usaf-tacp) [Chrome](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Chrome) $166 166 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $20.38 20.38 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.12x 2026-11-11 13:14 UTC [Markus Delrow | FBI HRT agent · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/markus-delrow-fbi-hrt) [Incredible](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Incredible) $166 166 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $20.31 20.31 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.12x 2026-11-11 13:13 UTC [Markus Delrow | FBI HRT agent · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/markus-delrow-fbi-hrt) [Incredible](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Incredible) $166 166 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $20.31 20.31 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.12x 2026-11-11 13:13 UTC [Markus Delrow | FBI HRT agent · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/markus-delrow-fbi-hrt) [⎛⎝Galorch⎠⎞](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/%E2%8E%9B%E2%8E%9DGalorch%E2%8E%A0%E2%8E%9E) $166 166 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $20.31 20.31 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.12x 2026-11-11 13:02 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:28 UTC | $166 | 90.60% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 1.4% legendary 0.2% blue 24.5% distinguished 24.5% superior 24.5% violet 24.9% best hit $16.2K (97.43x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.6% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.60 on average: an expected loss of $9.40 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt