--- title: "Bunny Howl 2% case on Hotpizza.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Bunny Howl 2% ($122.00) on Hotpizza.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 125.25% from 11 items with odds, observed 135.93% over 5,764 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/157 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:37Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hotpizza.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hotpizza) / [Bunny Howl 2%](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/157) # [Hotpizza.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hotpizza) · Bunny Howl 2% A case on Hotpizza.gg (Epic Risky Drop), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hotpizza.gg's own item price converted from hotpizza point at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/157?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/157?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/157) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/157?window=all) Price · $122.00 · 122 HOTPIZZA\_POINT Advertised RTP · 125.25% · EV $152.80 from 11 items Observed RTP, 30d · 135.93% · 5,764 openings, odds method Variance · 69.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 50 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 98.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 141.64% ±62.43 688 openings 7 days · 129.71% ±23.95 4,675 openings 30 days · 135.93% ±21.57 5,764 openings since tracking started · 135.93% ±21.57 5,764 openings 78.5% 141.5% 204.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/157?window=24h) | 688 | 141.64% ±62.4 | +0.5σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/157?window=7d) | 4,675 | 129.71% ±23.9 | +0.4σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/157) | 5,764 | 135.93% ±21.6 | +1.0σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/157?window=all) | 5,764 | 135.93% ±21.6 | +1.0σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5,774 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Howl (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-howl-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $17.2K 17,162 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 11.2% | 8 | 5.8 | 1.39× | | [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Howl (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-howl-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $12K 12,000 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 7.9% | 7 | 5.8 | 1.21× | | [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Howl (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-howl-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000 | $9,693 9,693 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 6.3% | 9 | 5.8 | 1.56× | | [M4A4 \| Howl (Factory New) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $7,837 7,837 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 5.1% | 7 | 5.8 | 1.21× | | [M4A4 \| Howl (Minimal Wear) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $6,063 6,063 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.0% | 5 | 5.8 | 0.87× | | [M4A4 \| Howl (Well-Worn) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-well-worn) | 1 in 333 | $5,728 5,728 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 11.2% | 14 | 17.3 | 0.81× | | [M4A4 \| Howl (Field-Tested) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-field-tested) | 1 in 83 | $5,266 5,266 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 41.4% | 70 | 69.3 | 1.01× | | [Michael Syfers \| FBI Sniper agent · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/michael-syfers-fbi-sniper) | 24.5% | $20.90 20.9 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.4% | 1,419 | 1414.6 | 1.00× | | [Enforcer \| Phoenix agent · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/enforcer-phoenix) | 24.5% | $20.50 20.5 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.3% | 1,417 | 1414.6 | 1.00× | | [Prof. Shahmat \| Elite Crew agent · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/prof-shahmat-elite-crew) | 24.5% | $19.90 19.9 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.2% | 1,447 | 1414.6 | 1.02× | | ['The Doctor' Romanov \| Sabre agent · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/the-doctor-romanov-sabre) | 24.5% | $19.01 19.01 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.0% | 1,371 | 1414.6 | 0.97× | Values are Hotpizza.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hotpizza:api/data`, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [StatTrak™ M4A4 | Howl (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-howl-factory-new) [егорка (почти талант)](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/%D0%B5%D0%B3%D0%BE%D1%80%D0%BA%D0%B0%20%28%D0%BF%D0%BE%D1%87%D1%82%D0%B8%20%D1%82%D0%B0%D0%BB%D0%B0%D0%BD%D1%82%29) $122 122 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $17.2K 17,162 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 140.7x 2026-11-10 06:42 UTC [StatTrak™ M4A4 | Howl (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-howl-factory-new) [say10](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/say10) $122 122 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $17.2K 17,162 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 140.7x 2026-11-07 22:01 UTC [StatTrak™ M4A4 | Howl (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-howl-factory-new) [Gen](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Gen) $122 122 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $17.2K 17,162 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 140.7x 2026-11-07 21:16 UTC [StatTrak™ M4A4 | Howl (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-howl-factory-new) [Kingi](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Kingi) $122 122 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $17.2K 17,162 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 140.7x 2026-11-07 13:54 UTC [StatTrak™ M4A4 | Howl (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-howl-factory-new) [L-L](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/L-L) $122 122 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $17.2K 17,162 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 140.7x 2026-11-05 10:28 UTC [StatTrak™ M4A4 | Howl (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-howl-factory-new) [NO NAME](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/NO%20NAME) $122 122 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $17.2K 17,162 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 140.7x 2026-11-04 04:52 UTC [StatTrak™ M4A4 | Howl (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-howl-factory-new) [Choco](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Choco) $122 122 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $17.2K 17,162 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 140.7x 2026-11-03 20:06 UTC [StatTrak™ M4A4 | Howl (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-howl-factory-new) [123](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/123) $122 122 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $17.2K 17,162 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 140.7x 2026-11-03 07:03 UTC [StatTrak™ M4A4 | Howl (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-howl-minimal-wear) [fLshd](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/fLshd) $122 122 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $12K 12,000 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 98.36x 2026-11-11 08:14 UTC [StatTrak™ M4A4 | Howl (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-howl-minimal-wear) [♥♥♥evaaa\_ni♥♥♥](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/%E2%99%A5%E2%99%A5%E2%99%A5evaaa_ni%E2%99%A5%E2%99%A5%E2%99%A5) $122 122 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $12K 12,000 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 98.36x 2026-11-10 02:04 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hotpizza&case=157) ['The Doctor' Romanov | Sabre agent · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/the-doctor-romanov-sabre) [BMaximusBoss](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/BMaximusBoss) $122 122 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $19.01 19.01 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.16x 2026-11-11 13:36 UTC [Prof. Shahmat | Elite Crew agent · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/prof-shahmat-elite-crew) [Abdrosel](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Abdrosel) $122 122 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $19.90 19.9 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.16x 2026-11-11 13:35 UTC [Prof. Shahmat | Elite Crew agent · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/prof-shahmat-elite-crew) [Harumi](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Harumi) $122 122 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $19.90 19.9 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.16x 2026-11-11 13:35 UTC [Enforcer | Phoenix agent · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/enforcer-phoenix) [Haryayiar](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Haryayiar) $122 122 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $20.50 20.5 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.17x 2026-11-11 13:35 UTC [Prof. Shahmat | Elite Crew agent · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/prof-shahmat-elite-crew) [GsUltimate](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/GsUltimate) $122 122 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $19.90 19.9 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.16x 2026-11-11 13:33 UTC ['The Doctor' Romanov | Sabre agent · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/the-doctor-romanov-sabre) [fygozerAA](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/fygozerAA) $122 122 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $19.01 19.01 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.16x 2026-11-11 13:27 UTC [Michael Syfers | FBI Sniper agent · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/michael-syfers-fbi-sniper) [eternity :v](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/eternity%20%3Av) $122 122 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $20.90 20.9 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.17x 2026-11-11 13:27 UTC [Enforcer | Phoenix agent · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/enforcer-phoenix) [Danjgem](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Danjgem) $122 122 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $20.50 20.5 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.17x 2026-11-11 13:27 UTC [Prof. Shahmat | Elite Crew agent · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/prof-shahmat-elite-crew) [𝓛𝓲𝓬𝓴 𝓶𝓮](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/%F0%9D%93%9B%F0%9D%93%B2%F0%9D%93%AC%F0%9D%93%B4%20%F0%9D%93%B6%F0%9D%93%AE) $122 122 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $19.90 19.9 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.16x 2026-11-11 13:27 UTC [M4A4 | Howl (Field-Tested) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-field-tested) [elbombaxdxd](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/elbombaxdxd) $122 122 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $5,266 5,266 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 43.16x 2026-11-11 13:25 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:28 UTC | $122 | 125.25% | 11 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed contraband 1.9% legendary 0.1% pink 49.0% blue 24.5% red 24.5% best hit $17.2K (140.7x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 125.2% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $125.25 on average: an expected loss of $0.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt