---
title: "Sniper Hunter case on Hotpizza.gg: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Sniper Hunter ($225.00) on Hotpizza.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 86.27% from 90 items with odds, observed 86.40% over 4,724 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/167
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:28Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hotpizza.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hotpizza) / [Sniper Hunter](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/167)

# [Hotpizza.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hotpizza) · Sniper Hunter

A case on Hotpizza.gg (Covert Hunters), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hotpizza.gg's own item price converted from hotpizza point at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/167?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/167?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/167) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/167?window=all)

Price · $225.00 · 225 HOTPIZZA\_POINT

Advertised RTP · 86.27% · EV $194.12 from 90 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 86.40% · 4,724 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.6× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 14.2% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 80.4% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 88.66% ±10.43 570 openings

7 days · 87.54% ±3.94 3,995 openings

30 days · 86.40% ±3.62 4,724 openings

since tracking started · 86.40% ±3.62 4,724 openings

77.5% 88.5% 99.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/167?window=24h) | 570 | 88.66% ±10.4 | +0.4σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/167?window=7d) | 3,995 | 87.54% ±3.94 | +0.6σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/167) | 4,724 | 86.40% ±3.62 | +0.1σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/167?window=all) | 4,724 | 86.40% ±3.62 | +0.1σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 90 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,738 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [M4A1-S \| Knight (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-knight-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $4,523 4,523 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.3% | 8 | 4.7 | 1.69× |
| [Negev \| Mjölnir (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-mjolnir-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $3,385 3,385 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.7% | 2 | 4.7 | 0.42× |
| [Negev \| Mjölnir (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-mjolnir-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000 | $2,798 2,798 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.4% | 7 | 4.7 | 1.48× |
| [M4A4 \| Poseidon (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $2,336 2,336 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.2% | 6 | 4.7 | 1.27× |
| [M4A4 \| Poseidon (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,403 1,403 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.7% | 5 | 4.7 | 1.06× |
| [M4A4 \| Poseidon (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,367 1,367 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.7% | 6 | 4.7 | 1.27× |
| [M4A1-S \| Blue Phosphor (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blue-phosphor-minimal-wear) | 1 in 500 | $1,116 1,116 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.1% | 8 | 9.5 | 0.84× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Emerald Jörmungandr (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-emerald-jormungandr-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $1,084 1,084 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.1% | 9 | 9.5 | 0.95× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Fennec Fox (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-fennec-fox-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $1,031 1,031 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.1% | 16 | 9.5 | 1.69× |
| [MAG-7 \| Cinquedea (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-cinquedea-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $974 974 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.0% | 7 | 9.5 | 0.74× |
| [M4A1-S \| Blue Phosphor (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blue-phosphor-factory-new) | 1 in 333 | $954 954 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.5% | 11 | 14.2 | 0.77× |
| [MAG-7 \| Cinquedea (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-cinquedea-minimal-wear) | 1 in 333 | $832 832 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.3% | 15 | 14.2 | 1.06× |
| [M4A1-S \| Icarus Fell (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-icarus-fell-minimal-wear) | 1 in 333 | $821 821 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.3% | 13 | 14.2 | 0.91× |
| [MAG-7 \| Cinquedea (Field-Tested) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-cinquedea-field-tested) | 1 in 333 | $784 784 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.2% | 17 | 14.2 | 1.20× |
| [M4A1-S \| Icarus Fell (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-icarus-fell-factory-new) | 1 in 333 | $777 777 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.2% | 13 | 14.2 | 0.91× |
| [USP-S \| Target Acquired (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-target-acquired-factory-new) | 1 in 333 | $771 771 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.2% | 12 | 14.2 | 0.84× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Emerald Jörmungandr (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-emerald-jormungandr-minimal-wear) | 1 in 333 | $756 756 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.2% | 14 | 14.2 | 0.98× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Hand Cannon (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-hand-cannon-battle-scarred) | 1 in 250 | $666 666 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.4% | 19 | 19.0 | 1.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Hand Cannon (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-hand-cannon-factory-new) | 1 in 250 | $664 664 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.4% | 19 | 19.0 | 1.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Hand Cannon (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-hand-cannon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 250 | $638 638 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.3% | 24 | 19.0 | 1.27× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Emerald Jörmungandr (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-emerald-jormungandr-battle-scarred) | 1 in 250 | $613 613 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.3% | 20 | 19.0 | 1.06× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Emerald Jörmungandr (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-emerald-jormungandr-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $613 613 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.6% | 37 | 23.7 | 1.56× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Emerald Jörmungandr (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-emerald-jormungandr-well-worn) | 1 in 200 | $595 595 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.5% | 17 | 23.7 | 0.72× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Fennec Fox (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-fennec-fox-well-worn) | 1 in 167 | $567 567 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.8% | 21 | 28.4 | 0.74× |
| [P90 \| Astral Jörmungandr (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-astral-jormungandr-factory-new) | 1 in 167 | $565 565 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.7% | 31 | 28.4 | 1.09× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Hand Cannon (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-hand-cannon-field-tested) | 1 in 167 | $563 563 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.7% | 20 | 28.4 | 0.70× |
| [P90 \| Astral Jörmungandr (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-astral-jormungandr-field-tested) | 1 in 167 | $555 555 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.7% | 28 | 28.4 | 0.98× |
| [MAG-7 \| Cinquedea (Well-Worn) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-cinquedea-well-worn) | 1 in 167 | $543 543 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.7% | 32 | 28.4 | 1.13× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Fennec Fox (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-fennec-fox-minimal-wear) | 1 in 167 | $516 516 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.6% | 19 | 28.4 | 0.67× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Chalice (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-chalice-factory-new) | 1 in 167 | $514 514 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.6% | 27 | 28.4 | 0.95× |
| [MP5-SD \| Oxide Oasis (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-oxide-oasis-factory-new) | 1 in 167 | $512 512 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.6% | 24 | 28.4 | 0.84× |
| [G3SG1 \| Chronos (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-chronos-minimal-wear) | 1 in 167 | $500 500 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.5% | 18 | 28.4 | 0.63× |
| [MAG-7 \| Cinquedea (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-cinquedea-battle-scarred) | 1 in 167 | $482 482 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.5% | 32 | 28.4 | 1.13× |
| [G3SG1 \| Chronos (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-chronos-factory-new) | 1 in 143 | $477 477 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.7% | 26 | 33.2 | 0.78× |
| [MP5-SD \| Oxide Oasis (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-oxide-oasis-well-worn) | 1 in 143 | $464 464 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.7% | 26 | 33.2 | 0.78× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Fennec Fox (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-fennec-fox-field-tested) | 1 in 143 | $462 462 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.7% | 40 | 33.2 | 1.21× |
| [MP5-SD \| Oxide Oasis (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-oxide-oasis-minimal-wear) | 1 in 143 | $430 430 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.6% | 30 | 33.2 | 0.90× |
| [MP5-SD \| Oxide Oasis (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-oxide-oasis-field-tested) | 1 in 143 | $426 426 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.5% | 29 | 33.2 | 0.87× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Fennec Fox (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-fennec-fox-battle-scarred) | 1 in 125 | $402 402 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.7% | 33 | 37.9 | 0.87× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Starcade (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-starcade-factory-new) | 1 in 125 | $364 364 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.5% | 47 | 37.9 | 1.24× |
| [USP-S \| Target Acquired (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-target-acquired-minimal-wear) | 1 in 125 | $307 307 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.3% | 35 | 37.9 | 0.92× |
| [USP-S \| Target Acquired (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-target-acquired-well-worn) | 1 in 125 | $240 240 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.0% | 32 | 37.9 | 0.84× |
| [UMP-45 \| Crime Scene (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-crime-scene-well-worn) | 1 in 125 | $233 233 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.0% | 33 | 37.9 | 0.87× |
| [AUG \| Lil' Pig (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-lil-pig-factory-new) | 1 in 125 | $221 221 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.9% | 44 | 37.9 | 1.16× |
| [MAC-10 \| Red Filigree (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-red-filigree-factory-new) | 1 in 125 | $198 198 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.8% | 42 | 37.9 | 1.11× |
| [USP-S \| Target Acquired (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-target-acquired-field-tested) | 1 in 125 | $195 195 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.8% | 34 | 37.9 | 0.90× |
| [Glock-18 \| Pink DDPAT (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-pink-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $194 194 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.0% | 45 | 47.4 | 0.95× |
| [MP9 \| Stained Glass (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-stained-glass-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $193 193 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.0% | 64 | 47.4 | 1.35× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Berries And Cherries (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-berries-and-cherries-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $189 189 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.0% | 46 | 47.4 | 0.97× |
| [MP9 \| Stained Glass (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-stained-glass-well-worn) | 1 in 100 | $183 183 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.9% | 51 | 47.4 | 1.08× |
| [Nova \| Baroque Orange (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-baroque-orange-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $166 166 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.9% | 51 | 47.4 | 1.08× |
| [FAMAS \| Prime Conspiracy (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-prime-conspiracy-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $164 164 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.8% | 47 | 47.4 | 0.99× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Berries And Cherries (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-berries-and-cherries-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $161 161 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.8% | 40 | 47.4 | 0.84× |
| [Nova \| Baroque Orange (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-baroque-orange-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $153 153 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.8% | 51 | 47.4 | 1.08× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Starcade (Minimal Wear) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-starcade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $147 147 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.8% | 47 | 47.4 | 0.99× |
| [UMP-45 \| Crime Scene (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-crime-scene-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $146 146 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.7% | 42 | 47.4 | 0.89× |
| [MAC-10 \| Red Filigree (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-red-filigree-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $141 141 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.7% | 47 | 47.4 | 0.99× |
| [MP9 \| Stained Glass (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-stained-glass-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $140 140 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.7% | 60 | 47.4 | 1.27× |
| [AUG \| Lil' Pig (Minimal Wear) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-lil-pig-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $139 139 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.7% | 58 | 47.4 | 1.22× |
| [Nova \| Baroque Orange (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-baroque-orange-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $138 138 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.7% | 35 | 47.4 | 0.74× |
| [FAMAS \| Prime Conspiracy (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-prime-conspiracy-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $138 138 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.7% | 51 | 47.4 | 1.08× |
| [UMP-45 \| Crime Scene (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-crime-scene-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $137 137 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.7% | 44 | 47.4 | 0.93× |
| [AUG \| Sand Storm (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-sand-storm-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $129 129 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.7% | 31 | 47.4 | 0.65× |
| [MAC-10 \| Red Filigree (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-red-filigree-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $125 125 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.6% | 54 | 47.4 | 1.14× |
| [MP9 \| Stained Glass (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-stained-glass-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $124 124 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.6% | 43 | 47.4 | 0.91× |
| [XM1014 \| Elegant Vines (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-elegant-vines-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $123 123 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.6% | 49 | 47.4 | 1.03× |
| [Glock-18 \| Pink DDPAT (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-pink-ddpat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $121 121 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.6% | 65 | 47.4 | 1.37× |
| [UMP-45 \| Crime Scene (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-crime-scene-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $120 120 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.6% | 43 | 47.4 | 0.91× |
| [FAMAS \| Prime Conspiracy (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-prime-conspiracy-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $120 120 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.6% | 52 | 47.4 | 1.10× |
| [FAMAS \| Prime Conspiracy (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-prime-conspiracy-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $119 119 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.6% | 42 | 47.4 | 0.89× |
| [FAMAS \| Prime Conspiracy (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-prime-conspiracy-well-worn) | 1 in 50 | $119 119 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.2% | 95 | 94.8 | 1.00× |
| [UMP-45 \| Crime Scene (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-crime-scene-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $108 108 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.1% | 90 | 94.8 | 0.95× |
| [Glock-18 \| Pink DDPAT (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-pink-ddpat-well-worn) | 1 in 50 | $90.58 90.58 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.9% | 79 | 94.8 | 0.83× |
| [XM1014 \| Elegant Vines (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-elegant-vines-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $87.41 87.41 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.9% | 89 | 94.8 | 0.94× |
| [AUG \| Sand Storm (Minimal Wear) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-sand-storm-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $85.02 85.02 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.9% | 85 | 94.8 | 0.90× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Starcade (Field-Tested) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-starcade-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $84.92 84.92 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.9% | 103 | 94.8 | 1.09× |
| [AUG \| Sand Storm (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-sand-storm-well-worn) | 1 in 33 | $79.74 79.74 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.2% | 152 | 142.1 | 1.07× |
| [XM1014 \| Elegant Vines (Field-Tested) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-elegant-vines-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $77.82 77.82 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.2% | 139 | 142.1 | 0.98× |
| [AUG \| Lil' Pig (Field-Tested) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-lil-pig-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $76.10 76.1 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.2% | 142 | 142.1 | 1.00× |
| [AUG \| Sand Storm (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-sand-storm-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $70.82 70.82 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.1% | 147 | 142.1 | 1.03× |
| [Glock-18 \| Pink DDPAT (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-pink-ddpat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 33 | $69.16 69.16 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.1% | 145 | 142.1 | 1.02× |
| [Glock-18 \| Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-pink-ddpat-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $65.68 65.68 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.0% | 140 | 142.1 | 0.98× |
| [M4A4 \| Polysoup (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-polysoup-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $63.42 63.42 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.0% | 143 | 142.1 | 1.01× |
| [AUG \| Lil' Pig (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-lil-pig-well-worn) | 1 in 33 | $62.70 62.7 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.0% | 143 | 142.1 | 1.01× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Starcade (Well-Worn) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-starcade-well-worn) | 1 in 33 | $61.36 61.36 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.9% | 143 | 142.1 | 1.01× |
| [AUG \| Lil' Pig (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-lil-pig-battle-scarred) | 1 in 33 | $56.57 56.57 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.9% | 147 | 142.1 | 1.03× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Starcade (Battle-Scarred) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-starcade-battle-scarred) | 1 in 33 | $55.42 55.42 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.9% | 148 | 142.1 | 1.04× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Slalom (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-slalom-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $35.32 35.32 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.5% | 139 | 142.1 | 0.98× |
| [P90 \| Attack Vector (Factory New) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-attack-vector-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $35.14 35.14 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.5% | 150 | 142.1 | 1.06× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Slalom (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-slalom-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $18.33 18.33 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.3% | 153 | 142.1 | 1.08× |

Values are Hotpizza.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hotpizza:api/data`, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[M4A1-S | Knight (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-knight-factory-new) [ATastyPickleJR\[Ping from Pluto\]](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/ATastyPickleJR%5BPing%20from%20Pluto%5D) $225 225 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $4,523 4,523 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 20.10x 2026-11-10 12:00 UTC

[M4A1-S | Knight (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-knight-factory-new) [Дура](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/%D0%94%D1%83%D1%80%D0%B0) $225 225 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $4,523 4,523 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 20.10x 2026-11-10 11:22 UTC

[M4A1-S | Knight (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-knight-factory-new) [Memaserya](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Memaserya) $225 225 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $4,523 4,523 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 20.10x 2026-11-07 10:58 UTC

[M4A1-S | Knight (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-knight-factory-new) [Lemon ツ](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Lemon%20%E3%83%84) $225 225 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $4,523 4,523 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 20.10x 2026-11-07 01:44 UTC

[M4A1-S | Knight (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-knight-factory-new) [bifrutas enjoyer](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/bifrutas%20enjoyer) $225 225 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $4,523 4,523 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 20.10x 2026-11-05 17:41 UTC

[M4A1-S | Knight (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-knight-factory-new) [Pecivko (Pastry)](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Pecivko%20%28Pastry%29) $225 225 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $4,523 4,523 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 20.10x 2026-11-05 11:15 UTC

[M4A1-S | Knight (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-knight-factory-new) [Fortis](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Fortis) $225 225 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $4,523 4,523 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 20.10x 2026-11-05 05:51 UTC

[M4A1-S | Knight (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-knight-factory-new) [Shiroi](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Shiroi) $225 225 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $4,523 4,523 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 20.10x 2026-11-04 10:35 UTC

[Negev | Mjölnir (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-mjolnir-factory-new) [Flick](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Flick) $225 225 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $3,385 3,385 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 15.05x 2026-11-07 18:44 UTC

[Negev | Mjölnir (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-mjolnir-factory-new) [HiTU](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/HiTU) $225 225 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $3,385 3,385 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 15.05x 2026-11-05 22:39 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hotpizza&case=167)

[CZ75-Auto | Slalom (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-slalom-factory-new) [PhantomX](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/PhantomX) $225 225 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $35.32 35.32 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.16x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Starcade (Field-Tested) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-starcade-field-tested) [PhantomX](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/PhantomX) $225 225 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $84.92 84.92 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.38x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC

[AUG | Lil' Pig (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-lil-pig-battle-scarred) [Ryan "Chill" Foy](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Ryan%20%22Chill%22%20Foy) $225 225 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $56.57 56.57 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.25x 2026-11-11 13:22 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Starcade (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-starcade-factory-new) [Caveman Jeff](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Caveman%20Jeff) $225 225 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $364 364 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 1.62x 2026-11-11 13:19 UTC

[XM1014 | Elegant Vines (Field-Tested) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-elegant-vines-field-tested) [FiskerxD](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/FiskerxD) $225 225 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $77.82 77.82 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.35x 2026-11-11 13:18 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Starcade (Well-Worn) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-starcade-well-worn) [Chocolate 🦄🦄](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Chocolate%20%F0%9F%A6%84%F0%9F%A6%84) $225 225 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $61.36 61.36 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.27x 2026-11-11 13:18 UTC

[MAG-7 | Cinquedea (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-cinquedea-minimal-wear) [FUCK ISAC](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/FUCK%20ISAC) $225 225 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $832 832 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 3.70x 2026-11-11 13:13 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Starcade (Well-Worn) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-starcade-well-worn) [FUCK ISAC](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/FUCK%20ISAC) $225 225 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $61.36 61.36 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.27x 2026-11-11 13:13 UTC

[AUG | Lil' Pig (Field-Tested) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-lil-pig-field-tested) [Capt. Grandpow](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Capt.%20Grandpow) $225 225 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $76.10 76.1 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.34x 2026-11-11 13:13 UTC

[UMP-45 | Crime Scene (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-crime-scene-minimal-wear) [Claraaa-](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Claraaa-) $225 225 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $137 137 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.61x 2026-11-11 13:12 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 3 Nov, 04:28 UTC | $225 | 86.27% | 90 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed classified 11.5% restricted 40.6% Classified 0.3% #8847ff 4.4% #d32ee6 2.0% pink 4.4% rare 4.8% violet 10.0% Mythical 5.0% Restricted 5.0% uncommon 12.0% best hit $4,523 (20.10x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 86.3% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $86.27 on average: an expected loss of $13.73 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt