---
title: "Golden Hunter case on Hotpizza.gg: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Golden Hunter ($165.00) on Hotpizza.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 86.70% from 128 items with odds, observed 83.90% over 5,010 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/168
rendered: 2026-11-11T17:25Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hotpizza.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hotpizza) / [Golden Hunter](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/168)

# [Hotpizza.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hotpizza) · Golden Hunter

A case on Hotpizza.gg (Covert Hunters), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hotpizza.gg's own item price converted from hotpizza point at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/168?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/168?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/168) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/168?window=all)

Price · $165.00 · 165 HOTPIZZA\_POINT

Advertised RTP · 86.70% · EV $143.05 from 128 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 83.90% · 5,010 openings, odds method

Variance · 2.4× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 11.8% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 77.6% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 92.79% ±12.71 578 openings

7 days · 84.87% ±4.76 4,120 openings

30 days · 83.90% ±4.32 5,010 openings

since tracking started · 83.90% ±4.32 5,010 openings

79.0% 92.5% 106.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/168?window=24h) | 578 | 92.79% ±12.7 | +0.9σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/168?window=7d) | 4,120 | 84.87% ±4.76 | −0.8σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/168) | 5,010 | 83.90% ±4.32 | −1.3σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/168?window=all) | 5,010 | 83.90% ±4.32 | −1.3σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 128 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5,020 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [MP9 \| Wild Lily (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-wild-lily-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $3,506 3,506 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.5% | 11 | 5.0 | 2.19× |
| [MP9 \| Wild Lily (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-wild-lily-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $3,055 3,055 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.1% | 3 | 5.0 | 0.60× |
| [MP9 \| Wild Lily (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-wild-lily-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,000 | $2,757 2,757 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.9% | 2 | 5.0 | 0.40× |
| [MP9 \| Wild Lily (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-wild-lily-well-worn) | 1 in 1,000 | $2,542 2,542 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.8% | 1 | 5.0 | 0.20× |
| [MP9 \| Wild Lily (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-wild-lily-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000 | $2,525 2,525 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.8% | 4 | 5.0 | 0.80× |
| [M4A4 \| Daybreak (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-daybreak-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $2,053 2,053 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.4% | 6 | 5.0 | 1.20× |
| [AWP \| Silk Tiger (Factory New) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-silk-tiger-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,067 1,067 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.7% | 8 | 5.0 | 1.59× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Neon Kimono (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-neon-kimono-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $903 903 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.6% | 9 | 5.0 | 1.79× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Sunset Storm 壱 (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-sunset-storm-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $791 791 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.6% | 4 | 5.0 | 0.80× |
| [SSG 08 \| Death Strike (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-death-strike-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $776 776 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.5% | 4 | 5.0 | 0.80× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Sunset Storm 弐 (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-sunset-storm-factory-new-2) | 1 in 1,000 | $765 765 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.5% | 5 | 5.0 | 1.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Sunset Storm 弐 (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-sunset-storm-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000 | $751 751 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.5% | 4 | 5.0 | 0.80× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Neon Kimono (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-neon-kimono-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000 | $739 739 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.5% | 1 | 5.0 | 0.20× |
| [M4A4 \| Daybreak (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-daybreak-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $738 738 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.5% | 5 | 5.0 | 1.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Sunset Storm 壱 (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-sunset-storm-minimal-wear-2) | 1 in 1,000 | $728 728 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.5% | 5 | 5.0 | 1.00× |
| [SSG 08 \| Death Strike (Well-Worn) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-death-strike-well-worn) | 1 in 1,000 | $710 710 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.5% | 4 | 5.0 | 0.80× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Sunset Storm 弐 (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-sunset-storm-minimal-wear) | 1 in 500 | $700 700 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.0% | 7 | 10.0 | 0.70× |
| [M4A4 \| Daybreak (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-daybreak-well-worn) | 1 in 500 | $681 681 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.0% | 11 | 10.0 | 1.10× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Sunset Storm 壱 (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-sunset-storm-field-tested-2) | 1 in 500 | $667 667 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.9% | 11 | 10.0 | 1.10× |
| [SSG 08 \| Death Strike (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-death-strike-minimal-wear) | 1 in 500 | $665 665 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.9% | 6 | 10.0 | 0.60× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Neon Kimono (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-neon-kimono-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $663 663 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.9% | 8 | 10.0 | 0.80× |
| [M4A4 \| Daybreak (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-daybreak-field-tested) | 1 in 500 | $661 661 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.9% | 11 | 10.0 | 1.10× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Sunset Storm 弐 (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-sunset-storm-battle-scarred) | 1 in 500 | $635 635 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.9% | 6 | 10.0 | 0.60× |
| [UMP-45 \| Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 500 | $608 608 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.8% | 8 | 10.0 | 0.80× |
| [SSG 08 \| Sea Calico (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-sea-calico-well-worn) | 1 in 500 | $576 576 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.8% | 7 | 10.0 | 0.70× |
| [Glock-18 \| Synth Leaf (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-synth-leaf-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $573 573 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.8% | 7 | 10.0 | 0.70× |
| [UMP-45 \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $556 556 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.8% | 10 | 10.0 | 1.00× |
| [MAC-10 \| Hot Snakes (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-hot-snakes-factory-new) | 1 in 333 | $534 534 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.1% | 18 | 15.1 | 1.20× |
| [AWP \| Silk Tiger (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-silk-tiger-minimal-wear) | 1 in 333 | $522 522 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.1% | 9 | 15.1 | 0.60× |
| [SSG 08 \| Sea Calico (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-sea-calico-minimal-wear) | 1 in 333 | $518 518 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.1% | 13 | 15.1 | 0.86× |
| [SSG 08 \| Sea Calico (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-sea-calico-factory-new) | 1 in 333 | $510 510 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.1% | 14 | 15.1 | 0.93× |
| [P90 \| Emerald Dragon (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-emerald-dragon-factory-new) | 1 in 333 | $490 490 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.0% | 14 | 15.1 | 0.93× |
| [AUG \| Midnight Lily (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-midnight-lily-field-tested) | 1 in 333 | $472 472 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.0% | 15 | 15.1 | 1.00× |
| [AUG \| Midnight Lily (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-midnight-lily-minimal-wear) | 1 in 333 | $471 471 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.0% | 18 | 15.1 | 1.20× |
| [AUG \| Midnight Lily (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-midnight-lily-factory-new) | 1 in 333 | $471 471 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.0% | 19 | 15.1 | 1.26× |
| [Glock-18 \| Synth Leaf (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-synth-leaf-minimal-wear) | 1 in 333 | $468 468 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.0% | 16 | 15.1 | 1.06× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Graphite (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-graphite-factory-new) | 1 in 333 | $467 467 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.0% | 17 | 15.1 | 1.13× |
| [Glock-18 \| Synth Leaf (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-synth-leaf-field-tested) | 1 in 333 | $460 460 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.0% | 11 | 15.1 | 0.73× |
| [SSG 08 \| Death Strike (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-death-strike-field-tested) | 1 in 333 | $449 449 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.9% | 12 | 15.1 | 0.80× |
| [MAC-10 \| Hot Snakes (Minimal Wear) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-hot-snakes-minimal-wear) | 1 in 333 | $438 438 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.9% | 12 | 15.1 | 0.80× |
| [Glock-18 \| Synth Leaf (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-synth-leaf-battle-scarred) | 1 in 333 | $434 434 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.9% | 10 | 15.1 | 0.66× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Graphite (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-graphite-minimal-wear) | 1 in 250 | $430 430 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.2% | 23 | 20.1 | 1.15× |
| [M4A4 \| Red DDPAT (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-red-ddpat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 250 | $402 402 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.1% | 22 | 20.1 | 1.10× |
| [SSG 08 \| Death Strike (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-death-strike-battle-scarred) | 1 in 250 | $371 371 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.0% | 17 | 20.1 | 0.85× |
| [StatTrak™ P90 \| Emerald Dragon (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-emerald-dragon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 250 | $370 370 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.0% | 22 | 20.1 | 1.10× |
| [StatTrak™ P90 \| Emerald Dragon (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-emerald-dragon-well-worn) | 1 in 250 | $362 362 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.0% | 20 | 20.1 | 1.00× |
| [SSG 08 \| Sea Calico (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-sea-calico-field-tested) | 1 in 250 | $350 350 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.0% | 20 | 20.1 | 1.00× |
| [StatTrak™ P2000 \| Ocean Foam (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-ocean-foam-minimal-wear) | 1 in 250 | $349 349 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.0% | 25 | 20.1 | 1.25× |
| [MAC-10 \| Hot Snakes (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-hot-snakes-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $348 348 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.2% | 35 | 25.1 | 1.39× |
| [USP-S \| Orange Anolis (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-orange-anolis-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $333 333 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.2% | 25 | 25.1 | 1.00× |
| [Galil AR \| Phoenix Blacklight (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-phoenix-blacklight-factory-new) | 1 in 167 | $327 327 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.4% | 25 | 30.1 | 0.83× |
| [M4A4 \| Red DDPAT (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-red-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 167 | $299 299 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.3% | 29 | 30.1 | 0.96× |
| [StatTrak™ P2000 \| Ocean Foam (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-ocean-foam-factory-new) | 1 in 167 | $280 280 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.2% | 27 | 30.1 | 0.90× |
| [Glock-18 \| Franklin (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-franklin-factory-new) | 1 in 167 | $274 274 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.1% | 26 | 30.1 | 0.86× |
| [AWP \| Silk Tiger (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-silk-tiger-well-worn) | 1 in 167 | $267 267 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.1% | 31 | 30.1 | 1.03× |
| [MAC-10 \| Hot Snakes (Well-Worn) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-hot-snakes-well-worn) | 1 in 167 | $264 264 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.1% | 22 | 30.1 | 0.73× |
| [AWP \| Silk Tiger (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-silk-tiger-field-tested) | 1 in 143 | $257 257 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.3% | 29 | 35.1 | 0.83× |
| [AWP \| Silk Tiger (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-silk-tiger-battle-scarred) | 1 in 143 | $252 252 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.2% | 32 | 35.1 | 0.91× |
| [AWP \| Graphite (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-graphite-factory-new) | 1 in 143 | $248 248 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.2% | 22 | 35.1 | 0.63× |
| [MAC-10 \| Hot Snakes (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-hot-snakes-battle-scarred) | 1 in 143 | $239 239 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.2% | 34 | 35.1 | 0.97× |
| [AWP \| Crakow! (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-crakow-factory-new) | 1 in 143 | $221 221 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.1% | 33 | 35.1 | 0.94× |
| [StatTrak™ P90 \| Emerald Dragon (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-emerald-dragon-field-tested) | 1 in 143 | $211 211 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.0% | 29 | 35.1 | 0.83× |
| [P2000 \| Ocean Foam (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-ocean-foam-factory-new) | 1 in 143 | $209 209 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.0% | 29 | 35.1 | 0.83× |
| [AWP \| Graphite (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-graphite-minimal-wear) | 1 in 143 | $204 204 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.0% | 32 | 35.1 | 0.91× |
| [StatTrak™ P90 \| Emerald Dragon (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-emerald-dragon-battle-scarred) | 1 in 143 | $203 203 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.0% | 37 | 35.1 | 1.05× |
| [P2000 \| Ocean Foam (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-ocean-foam-minimal-wear) | 1 in 143 | $194 194 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.0% | 41 | 35.1 | 1.17× |
| [MAC-10 \| Case Hardened (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 143 | $151 151 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.7% | 38 | 35.1 | 1.08× |
| [MAC-10 \| Graven (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-graven-factory-new) | 1 in 143 | $143 143 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.7% | 40 | 35.1 | 1.14× |
| [USP-S \| Overgrowth (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-overgrowth-factory-new) | 1 in 143 | $141 141 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.7% | 41 | 35.1 | 1.17× |
| [Galil AR \| Phoenix Blacklight (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-phoenix-blacklight-minimal-wear) | 1 in 143 | $139 139 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.7% | 33 | 35.1 | 0.94× |
| [Glock-18 \| Franklin (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-franklin-minimal-wear) | 1 in 143 | $138 138 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.7% | 31 | 35.1 | 0.88× |
| [P90 \| Emerald Dragon (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-emerald-dragon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 143 | $137 137 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.7% | 33 | 35.1 | 0.94× |
| [Zeus x27 \| Dragon Snore (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-dragon-snore-factory-new) | 1 in 143 | $132 132 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.6% | 47 | 35.1 | 1.34× |
| [P90 \| Emerald Dragon (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-emerald-dragon-battle-scarred) | 1 in 143 | $125 125 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.6% | 42 | 35.1 | 1.20× |
| [M4A4 \| Zirka (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-zirka-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $124 124 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.9% | 51 | 50.2 | 1.02× |
| [P90 \| Emerald Dragon (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-emerald-dragon-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $122 122 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.9% | 47 | 50.2 | 0.94× |
| [Glock-18 \| Franklin (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-franklin-well-worn) | 1 in 100 | $119 119 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.8% | 44 | 50.2 | 0.88× |
| [SG 553 \| Hypnotic (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-hypnotic-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $113 113 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.8% | 54 | 50.2 | 1.08× |
| [M4A4 \| Red DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-red-ddpat-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $109 109 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.8% | 67 | 50.2 | 1.33× |
| [M4A4 \| Red DDPAT (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-red-ddpat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $107 107 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.8% | 52 | 50.2 | 1.04× |
| [Galil AR \| Phoenix Blacklight (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-phoenix-blacklight-well-worn) | 1 in 100 | $107 107 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.7% | 50 | 50.2 | 1.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Franklin (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-franklin-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $104 104 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.7% | 48 | 50.2 | 0.96× |
| [SG 553 \| Hypnotic (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-hypnotic-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $100 100 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.7% | 53 | 50.2 | 1.06× |
| [Galil AR \| Phoenix Blacklight (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-phoenix-blacklight-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $99.42 99.42 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.7% | 62 | 50.2 | 1.24× |
| [Galil AR \| Phoenix Blacklight (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-phoenix-blacklight-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $99.18 99.18 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.7% | 47 | 50.2 | 0.94× |
| [MAC-10 \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-case-hardened-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $96.76 96.76 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.7% | 51 | 50.2 | 1.02× |
| [MAC-10 \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-case-hardened-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $92.84 92.84 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.6% | 56 | 50.2 | 1.12× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-bright-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $91.43 91.43 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.6% | 41 | 50.2 | 0.82× |
| [MAC-10 \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $90.07 90.07 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.6% | 57 | 50.2 | 1.14× |
| [MAC-10 \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-case-hardened-well-worn) | 1 in 100 | $90.04 90.04 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.6% | 53 | 50.2 | 1.06× |
| [M4A1-S \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-bright-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $89.46 89.46 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.6% | 33 | 50.2 | 0.66× |
| [AWP \| Crakow! (Minimal Wear) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-crakow-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $88.73 88.73 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.6% | 42 | 50.2 | 0.84× |
| [USP-S \| Orange Anolis (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-orange-anolis-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $87.35 87.35 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.6% | 44 | 50.2 | 0.88× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Bright Water (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-bright-water-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $74.44 74.44 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.5% | 51 | 50.2 | 1.02× |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Overgrowth (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-overgrowth-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $72.76 72.76 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.5% | 51 | 50.2 | 1.02× |
| [Zeus x27 \| Dragon Snore (Minimal Wear) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-dragon-snore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $71.94 71.94 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.5% | 56 | 50.2 | 1.12× |
| [M4A4 \| Zirka (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-zirka-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $50.63 50.63 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.4% | 49 | 50.2 | 0.98× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Zirka (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-zirka-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $49.98 49.98 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.3% | 46 | 50.2 | 0.92× |
| [StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Graven (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-graven-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $48.22 48.22 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.3% | 44 | 50.2 | 0.88× |
| [M4A1-S \| Bright Water (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-bright-water-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $45.22 45.22 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.3% | 42 | 50.2 | 0.84× |
| [AWP \| Crakow! (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-crakow-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $42.03 42.03 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.3% | 67 | 50.2 | 1.33× |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Overgrowth (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-overgrowth-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $39.02 39.02 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.3% | 50 | 50.2 | 1.00× |
| [StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Graven (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-graven-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $39.02 39.02 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.3% | 54 | 50.2 | 1.08× |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Overgrowth (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-overgrowth-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $38.98 38.98 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.3% | 49 | 50.2 | 0.98× |
| [StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Graven (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-graven-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $38.62 38.62 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.3% | 50 | 50.2 | 1.00× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Zirka (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-zirka-well-worn) | 1 in 100 | $37.07 37.07 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.3% | 51 | 50.2 | 1.02× |
| [USP-S \| Overgrowth (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-overgrowth-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $36.46 36.46 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.3% | 47 | 50.2 | 0.94× |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Overgrowth (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-overgrowth-well-worn) | 1 in 100 | $36.44 36.44 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.3% | 47 | 50.2 | 0.94× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Zirka (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-zirka-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $36.34 36.34 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.3% | 50 | 50.2 | 1.00× |
| [StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Graven (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-graven-well-worn) | 1 in 50 | $35.50 35.5 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.5% | 105 | 100.4 | 1.05× |
| [USP-S \| Orange Anolis (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-orange-anolis-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $35.01 35.01 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.2% | 57 | 50.2 | 1.14× |
| [MAC-10 \| Graven (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-graven-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $34.58 34.58 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.5% | 112 | 100.4 | 1.12× |
| [M4A4 \| Zirka (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-zirka-well-worn) | 1 in 50 | $32.41 32.41 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.5% | 101 | 100.4 | 1.01× |
| [Zeus x27 \| Dragon Snore (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-dragon-snore-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $32.03 32.03 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.4% | 104 | 100.4 | 1.04× |
| [AWP \| Crakow! (Well-Worn) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-crakow-well-worn) | 1 in 50 | $31.44 31.44 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.4% | 110 | 100.4 | 1.10× |
| [AWP \| Crakow! (Battle-Scarred) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-crakow-battle-scarred) | 1 in 50 | $30.96 30.96 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.4% | 103 | 100.4 | 1.03× |
| [Zeus x27 \| Dragon Snore (Well-Worn) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-dragon-snore-well-worn) | 1 in 50 | $29.72 29.72 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.4% | 109 | 100.4 | 1.09× |
| [M4A4 \| Zirka (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-zirka-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $26.47 26.47 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.4% | 106 | 100.4 | 1.06× |
| [USP-S \| Overgrowth (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-overgrowth-well-worn) | 1 in 50 | $26.22 26.22 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.4% | 116 | 100.4 | 1.16× |
| [Zeus x27 \| Dragon Snore (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-dragon-snore-battle-scarred) | 1 in 50 | $24.89 24.89 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.3% | 99 | 100.4 | 0.99× |
| [USP-S \| Overgrowth (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-overgrowth-battle-scarred) | 1 in 50 | $24.67 24.67 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.3% | 101 | 100.4 | 1.01× |
| [AUG \| Eye of Zapems (Factory New) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-eye-of-zapems-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $24.40 24.4 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.3% | 119 | 100.4 | 1.19× |
| [USP-S \| Overgrowth (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-overgrowth-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $24.26 24.26 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.3% | 94 | 100.4 | 0.94× |
| [MAC-10 \| Graven (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-graven-battle-scarred) | 1 in 50 | $24.20 24.2 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.3% | 91 | 100.4 | 0.91× |
| [MAC-10 \| Graven (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-graven-well-worn) | 1 in 50 | $23.42 23.42 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.3% | 101 | 100.4 | 1.01× |
| [MAC-10 \| Graven (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-graven-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $22.89 22.89 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.3% | 97 | 100.4 | 0.97× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Sweet Little Angels (Factory New) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-sweet-little-angels-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $20.80 20.8 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.3% | 101 | 100.4 | 1.01× |
| [XM1014 \| Monster Melt (Factory New) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-monster-melt-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $18.16 18.16 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.3% | 80 | 100.4 | 0.80× |

Values are Hotpizza.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hotpizza:api/data`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[MP9 | Wild Lily (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-wild-lily-factory-new) [Corey Corgins](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Corey%20Corgins) $165 165 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $3,506 3,506 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 21.25x 2026-11-11 11:37 UTC

[MP9 | Wild Lily (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-wild-lily-factory-new) [Helmut Möller](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Helmut%20M%C3%B6ller) $165 165 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $3,506 3,506 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 21.25x 2026-11-11 05:30 UTC

[MP9 | Wild Lily (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-wild-lily-factory-new) [4 guys, 1 dexx](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/4%20guys%2C%201%20dexx) $165 165 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $3,506 3,506 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 21.25x 2026-11-09 21:43 UTC

[MP9 | Wild Lily (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-wild-lily-factory-new) [ОТКИСАЙ](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/%D0%9E%D0%A2%D0%9A%D0%98%D0%A1%D0%90%D0%99) $165 165 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $3,506 3,506 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 21.25x 2026-11-08 13:05 UTC

[MP9 | Wild Lily (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-wild-lily-factory-new) [Nollhundkoll62](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Nollhundkoll62) $165 165 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $3,506 3,506 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 21.25x 2026-11-08 06:03 UTC

[MP9 | Wild Lily (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-wild-lily-factory-new) [eel \[peter dolphin\]](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/eel%20%5Bpeter%20dolphin%5D) $165 165 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $3,506 3,506 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 21.25x 2026-11-08 04:49 UTC

[MP9 | Wild Lily (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-wild-lily-factory-new) [cream](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/cream) $165 165 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $3,506 3,506 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 21.25x 2026-11-08 04:13 UTC

[MP9 | Wild Lily (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-wild-lily-factory-new) [Size Matters](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Size%20Matters) $165 165 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $3,506 3,506 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 21.25x 2026-11-07 06:57 UTC

[MP9 | Wild Lily (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-wild-lily-factory-new) [Brache!](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Brache!) $165 165 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $3,506 3,506 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 21.25x 2026-11-05 17:33 UTC

[MP9 | Wild Lily (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-wild-lily-factory-new) [Psy](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Psy) $165 165 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $3,506 3,506 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 21.25x 2026-11-05 09:26 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hotpizza&case=168)

[StatTrak™ USP-S | Overgrowth (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-overgrowth-minimal-wear) [B O R I S](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/B%20O%20R%20I%20S) $165 165 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $72.76 72.76 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.44x 2026-11-11 17:22 UTC

[USP-S | Orange Anolis (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-orange-anolis-field-tested) [IceBLue](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/IceBLue) $165 165 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $35.01 35.01 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.21x 2026-11-11 17:12 UTC

[SSG 08 | Sea Calico (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-sea-calico-field-tested) [IceBLue](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/IceBLue) $165 165 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $350 350 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 2.12x 2026-11-11 17:12 UTC

[AWP | Graphite (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-graphite-factory-new) [IceBLue](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/IceBLue) $165 165 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $248 248 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 1.50x 2026-11-11 17:12 UTC

[P90 | Emerald Dragon (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-emerald-dragon-minimal-wear) [Keeny](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Keeny) $165 165 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $137 137 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.83x 2026-11-11 17:11 UTC

[StatTrak™ P90 | Emerald Dragon (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-emerald-dragon-field-tested) [JayP](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/JayP) $165 165 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $211 211 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 1.28x 2026-11-11 17:08 UTC

[M4A4 | Red DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-red-ddpat-field-tested) [Cold War Hero](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Cold%20War%20Hero) $165 165 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $109 109 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.66x 2026-11-11 17:07 UTC

[M4A4 | Red DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-red-ddpat-field-tested) [Cold War Hero](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Cold%20War%20Hero) $165 165 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $109 109 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.66x 2026-11-11 17:07 UTC

[MAC-10 | Graven (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-graven-factory-new) [House](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/House) $165 165 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $143 143 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.87x 2026-11-11 16:59 UTC

[StatTrak™ P2000 | Ocean Foam (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-ocean-foam-factory-new) [House](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/House) $165 165 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $280 280 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 1.70x 2026-11-11 16:59 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 3 Nov, 04:28 UTC | $165 | 86.70% | 128 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed classified 11.4% restricted 41.3% #d32ee6 2.5% #8847ff 4.1% Classified 2.3% Mythical 6.0% rare 5.4% Restricted 6.0% violet 6.0% pink 3.0% #d32ce6 2.0% uncommon 10.0% best hit $3,506 (21.25x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 86.7% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $86.70 on average: an expected loss of $13.30 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt