---
title: "Doppler Hunter case on Hotpizza.gg: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Doppler Hunter ($115.00) on Hotpizza.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.46% from 103 items with odds, observed 87.26% over 5,643 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/169
rendered: 2026-11-11T16:55Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hotpizza.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hotpizza) / [Doppler Hunter](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/169)

# [Hotpizza.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hotpizza) · Doppler Hunter

A case on Hotpizza.gg (Covert Hunters), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hotpizza.gg's own item price converted from hotpizza point at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/169?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/169?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/169) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/169?window=all)

Price · $115.00 · 115 HOTPIZZA\_POINT

Advertised RTP · 87.46% · EV $100.58 from 103 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 87.26% · 5,643 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.3× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 32.2% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 39.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 90.35% ±4.47 609 openings

7 days · 86.77% ±1.60 4,761 openings

30 days · 87.26% ±1.47 5,643 openings

since tracking started · 87.26% ±1.47 5,643 openings

84.5% 90.0% 95.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/169?window=24h) | 609 | 90.35% ±4.47 | +1.3σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/169?window=7d) | 4,761 | 86.77% ±1.60 | −0.8σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/169) | 5,643 | 87.26% ±1.47 | −0.3σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/169?window=all) | 5,643 | 87.26% ±1.47 | −0.3σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 103 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5,669 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-hyper-beast-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $608 608 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.6% | 5 | 5.7 | 0.88× |
| [StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Chatterbox (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-galil-ar-chatterbox-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000 | $490 490 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.5% | 3 | 5.7 | 0.53× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $431 431 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.4% | 6 | 5.7 | 1.06× |
| [M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $420 420 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.4% | 6 | 5.7 | 1.06× |
| [M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $418 418 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.4% | 4 | 5.7 | 0.71× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-revolution-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $302 302 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.3% | 4 | 5.7 | 0.71× |
| [M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-mecha-industries-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $278 278 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.6% | 12 | 11.3 | 1.06× |
| [FAMAS \| Roll Cage (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-roll-cage-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $275 275 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.5% | 16 | 11.3 | 1.41× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-mecha-industries-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $259 259 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.5% | 10 | 11.3 | 0.88× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-neon-revolution-factory-new) | 1 in 333 | $254 254 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.8% | 13 | 17.0 | 0.76× |
| [Galil AR \| Chatterbox (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chatterbox-field-tested) | 1 in 333 | $229 229 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.7% | 18 | 17.0 | 1.06× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) | 1 in 333 | $225 225 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.7% | 21 | 17.0 | 1.23× |
| [StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Roll Cage (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-famas-roll-cage-factory-new) | 1 in 250 | $210 210 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.8% | 21 | 22.7 | 0.93× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-minimal-wear) | 1 in 111 | $206 206 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.8% | 42 | 51.0 | 0.82× |
| [M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) | 1 in 111 | $166 166 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.5% | 52 | 51.0 | 1.02× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Judgement of Anubis (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-judgement-of-anubis-factory-new) | 1 in 111 | $159 159 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.4% | 42 | 51.0 | 0.82× |
| [M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-minimal-wear) | 1 in 111 | $154 154 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.4% | 50 | 51.0 | 0.98× |
| [Glock-18 \| Wasteland Rebel (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-wasteland-rebel-factory-new) | 1 in 111 | $153 153 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.4% | 44 | 51.0 | 0.86× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-mecha-industries-minimal-wear) | 1 in 111 | $153 153 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.4% | 42 | 51.0 | 0.82× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Judgement of Anubis (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-judgement-of-anubis-minimal-wear) | 1 in 111 | $152 152 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.4% | 53 | 51.0 | 1.04× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Judgement of Anubis (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-judgement-of-anubis-field-tested) | 1 in 111 | $152 152 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.4% | 51 | 51.0 | 1.00× |
| [StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-neon-rider-factory-new) | 1 in 111 | $152 152 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.4% | 48 | 51.0 | 0.94× |
| [M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-field-tested) | 1 in 111 | $152 152 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.4% | 54 | 51.0 | 1.06× |
| [MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-neon-rider-well-worn) | 1 in 111 | $149 149 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.3% | 78 | 51.0 | 1.53× |
| [StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Chatterbox (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-galil-ar-chatterbox-well-worn) | 1 in 111 | $147 147 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.3% | 46 | 51.0 | 0.90× |
| [MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-neon-rider-factory-new) | 1 in 111 | $147 147 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.3% | 52 | 51.0 | 1.02× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Judgement of Anubis (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-judgement-of-anubis-well-worn) | 1 in 111 | $147 147 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.3% | 68 | 51.0 | 1.33× |
| [AWP \| Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-man-o-war-minimal-wear) | 1 in 111 | $145 145 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.3% | 48 | 51.0 | 0.94× |
| [M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-well-worn) | 1 in 111 | $144 144 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.3% | 60 | 51.0 | 1.18× |
| [Galil AR \| Chatterbox (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chatterbox-well-worn) | 1 in 111 | $144 144 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.3% | 59 | 51.0 | 1.16× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-revolution-minimal-wear) | 1 in 111 | $142 142 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.3% | 53 | 51.0 | 1.04× |
| [FAMAS \| Roll Cage (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-roll-cage-minimal-wear) | 1 in 111 | $142 142 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.3% | 53 | 51.0 | 1.04× |
| [StatTrak™ PP-Bizon \| Judgement of Anubis (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-pp-bizon-judgement-of-anubis-battle-scarred) | 1 in 111 | $140 140 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.3% | 60 | 51.0 | 1.18× |
| [StatTrak™ PP-Bizon \| Judgement of Anubis (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-pp-bizon-judgement-of-anubis-factory-new) | 1 in 111 | $140 140 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.3% | 55 | 51.0 | 1.08× |
| [M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-field-tested) | 1 in 111 | $137 137 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.2% | 52 | 51.0 | 1.02× |
| [Galil AR \| Chatterbox (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chatterbox-battle-scarred) | 1 in 111 | $137 137 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.2% | 58 | 51.0 | 1.14× |
| [Glock-18 \| Wasteland Rebel (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-wasteland-rebel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 111 | $136 136 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.2% | 44 | 51.0 | 0.86× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Man-o'-war (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-man-o-war-field-tested) | 1 in 111 | $135 135 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.2% | 48 | 51.0 | 0.94× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-mecha-industries-well-worn) | 1 in 111 | $135 135 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.2% | 66 | 51.0 | 1.29× |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Wasteland Rebel (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-wasteland-rebel-factory-new) | 1 in 111 | $134 134 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.2% | 54 | 51.0 | 1.06× |
| [StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Roll Cage (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-famas-roll-cage-minimal-wear) | 1 in 111 | $134 134 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.2% | 48 | 51.0 | 0.94× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-neon-revolution-minimal-wear) | 1 in 111 | $134 134 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.2% | 41 | 51.0 | 0.80× |
| [StatTrak™ PP-Bizon \| Judgement of Anubis (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-pp-bizon-judgement-of-anubis-minimal-wear) | 1 in 111 | $133 133 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.2% | 45 | 51.0 | 0.88× |
| [Glock-18 \| Wasteland Rebel (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-wasteland-rebel-field-tested) | 1 in 111 | $133 133 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.2% | 50 | 51.0 | 0.98× |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Wasteland Rebel (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-wasteland-rebel-battle-scarred) | 1 in 111 | $132 132 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.2% | 46 | 51.0 | 0.90× |
| [FAMAS \| Roll Cage (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-roll-cage-field-tested) | 1 in 111 | $132 132 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.2% | 39 | 51.0 | 0.76× |
| [StatTrak™ PP-Bizon \| Judgement of Anubis (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-pp-bizon-judgement-of-anubis-field-tested) | 1 in 111 | $131 131 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.2% | 35 | 51.0 | 0.69× |
| [MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-neon-rider-minimal-wear) | 1 in 111 | $131 131 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.2% | 48 | 51.0 | 0.94× |
| [M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-mecha-industries-minimal-wear) | 1 in 111 | $130 130 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.2% | 62 | 51.0 | 1.22× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-hyper-beast-field-tested) | 1 in 111 | $129 129 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.2% | 59 | 51.0 | 1.16× |
| [StatTrak™ PP-Bizon \| Judgement of Anubis (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-pp-bizon-judgement-of-anubis-well-worn) | 1 in 111 | $129 129 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.2% | 41 | 51.0 | 0.80× |
| [StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-neon-rider-minimal-wear) | 1 in 111 | $129 129 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.2% | 57 | 51.0 | 1.12× |
| [M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-mecha-industries-battle-scarred) | 1 in 111 | $128 128 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.1% | 52 | 51.0 | 1.02× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-neon-revolution-well-worn) | 1 in 111 | $128 128 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.1% | 47 | 51.0 | 0.92× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-field-tested) | 1 in 111 | $128 128 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.1% | 46 | 51.0 | 0.90× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-hyper-beast-battle-scarred) | 1 in 111 | $127 127 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.1% | 39 | 51.0 | 0.76× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Judgement of Anubis (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-judgement-of-anubis-battle-scarred) | 1 in 111 | $126 126 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.1% | 60 | 51.0 | 1.18× |
| [M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-well-worn) | 1 in 111 | $126 126 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.1% | 52 | 51.0 | 1.02× |
| [AWP \| Man-o'-war (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-man-o-war-field-tested) | 1 in 111 | $126 126 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.1% | 58 | 51.0 | 1.14× |
| [StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Chatterbox (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-galil-ar-chatterbox-battle-scarred) | 1 in 111 | $126 126 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.1% | 43 | 51.0 | 0.84× |
| [M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-battle-scarred) | 1 in 111 | $126 126 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.1% | 46 | 51.0 | 0.90× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-revolution-well-worn) | 1 in 111 | $126 126 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.1% | 50 | 51.0 | 0.98× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-revolution-field-tested) | 1 in 111 | $125 125 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.1% | 55 | 51.0 | 1.08× |
| [M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-battle-scarred) | 1 in 111 | $125 125 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.1% | 56 | 51.0 | 1.10× |
| [MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-neon-rider-field-tested) | 1 in 111 | $124 124 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.1% | 43 | 51.0 | 0.84× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-battle-scarred) | 1 in 111 | $122 122 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.1% | 53 | 51.0 | 1.04× |
| [FAMAS \| Roll Cage (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-roll-cage-battle-scarred) | 1 in 111 | $121 121 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.1% | 50 | 51.0 | 0.98× |
| [StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-neon-rider-well-worn) | 1 in 111 | $121 121 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.1% | 58 | 51.0 | 1.14× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-well-worn) | 1 in 111 | $121 121 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.1% | 41 | 51.0 | 0.80× |
| [StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-neon-rider-field-tested) | 1 in 111 | $120 120 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.1% | 51 | 51.0 | 1.00× |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Wasteland Rebel (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-wasteland-rebel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 111 | $120 120 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.1% | 59 | 51.0 | 1.16× |
| [Glock-18 \| Wasteland Rebel (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-wasteland-rebel-well-worn) | 1 in 111 | $119 119 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.1% | 52 | 51.0 | 1.02× |
| [M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-mecha-industries-well-worn) | 1 in 111 | $118 118 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.1% | 51 | 51.0 | 1.00× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-hyper-beast-well-worn) | 1 in 111 | $118 118 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.1% | 53 | 51.0 | 1.04× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-man-o-war-minimal-wear) | 1 in 111 | $118 118 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.1% | 57 | 51.0 | 1.12× |
| [M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-mecha-industries-field-tested) | 1 in 111 | $117 117 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.0% | 42 | 51.0 | 0.82× |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Wasteland Rebel (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-wasteland-rebel-well-worn) | 1 in 111 | $117 117 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.0% | 49 | 51.0 | 0.96× |
| [Glock-18 \| Wasteland Rebel (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-wasteland-rebel-battle-scarred) | 1 in 111 | $116 116 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.0% | 46 | 51.0 | 0.90× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-neon-revolution-battle-scarred) | 1 in 111 | $114 114 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.0% | 46 | 51.0 | 0.90× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-revolution-battle-scarred) | 1 in 111 | $114 114 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.0% | 64 | 51.0 | 1.25× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-mecha-industries-field-tested) | 1 in 111 | $113 113 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.0% | 60 | 51.0 | 1.18× |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Wasteland Rebel (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-wasteland-rebel-field-tested) | 1 in 111 | $112 112 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.0% | 59 | 51.0 | 1.16× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-mecha-industries-battle-scarred) | 1 in 111 | $111 111 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.0% | 48 | 51.0 | 0.94× |
| [FAMAS \| Roll Cage (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-roll-cage-well-worn) | 1 in 111 | $110 110 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.0% | 61 | 51.0 | 1.20× |
| [StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Roll Cage (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-famas-roll-cage-well-worn) | 1 in 111 | $109 109 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.0% | 45 | 51.0 | 0.88× |
| [StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Roll Cage (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-famas-roll-cage-battle-scarred) | 1 in 111 | $108 108 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.0% | 47 | 51.0 | 0.92× |
| [StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Roll Cage (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-famas-roll-cage-field-tested) | 1 in 111 | $107 107 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.0% | 48 | 51.0 | 0.94× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-neon-revolution-field-tested) | 1 in 111 | $107 107 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.0% | 46 | 51.0 | 0.90× |
| [AK-47 \| Cartel (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-cartel-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $18.16 18.16 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.4% | 114 | 113.4 | 1.01× |
| [StatTrak™ P250 \| Muertos (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-muertos-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $17.85 17.85 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.4% | 97 | 113.4 | 0.86× |
| [M4A4 \| 龍王 (Dragon King) (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dragon-king-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $15.81 15.81 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.3% | 111 | 113.4 | 0.98× |
| [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $15.66 15.66 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.3% | 115 | 113.4 | 1.01× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Monkey Business (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-monkey-business-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $15.38 15.38 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.3% | 124 | 113.4 | 1.09× |
| [StatTrak™ P250 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $15.10 15.1 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.3% | 111 | 113.4 | 0.98× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-bloodsport-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $14.48 14.48 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.3% | 106 | 113.4 | 0.93× |
| [Galil AR \| Eco (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-eco-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $14.28 14.28 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.3% | 107 | 113.4 | 0.94× |
| [AUG \| Syd Mead (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-syd-mead-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $14.26 14.26 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.3% | 105 | 113.4 | 0.93× |
| [Tec-9 \| Fuel Injector (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-fuel-injector-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $14.23 14.23 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.3% | 129 | 113.4 | 1.14× |
| [MP9 \| Airlock (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-airlock-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $13.98 13.98 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.3% | 100 | 113.4 | 0.88× |
| [UMP-45 \| Primal Saber (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-primal-saber-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $13.51 13.51 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.3% | 121 | 113.4 | 1.07× |
| [P2000 \| Imperial Dragon (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-imperial-dragon-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $13.46 13.46 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.3% | 124 | 113.4 | 1.09× |
| [AUG \| Fleet Flock (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-fleet-flock-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $13.27 13.27 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.3% | 111 | 113.4 | 0.98× |
| [FAMAS \| Djinn (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-djinn-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $13.26 13.26 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.3% | 119 | 113.4 | 1.05× |

Values are Hotpizza.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hotpizza:api/data`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Hyper Beast (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-hyper-beast-factory-new) [BOCEY](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/BOCEY) $115 115 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $608 608 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 5.29x 2026-11-09 12:02 UTC

[StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Hyper Beast (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-hyper-beast-factory-new) [de\_clutch2](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/de_clutch2) $115 115 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $608 608 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 5.29x 2026-11-08 17:00 UTC

[StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Hyper Beast (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-hyper-beast-factory-new) [cmr](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/cmr) $115 115 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $608 608 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 5.29x 2026-11-07 21:08 UTC

[StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Hyper Beast (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-hyper-beast-factory-new) [Hornét](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Horn%C3%A9t) $115 115 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $608 608 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 5.29x 2026-11-07 19:02 UTC

[StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Hyper Beast (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-hyper-beast-factory-new) [fodY](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/fodY) $115 115 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $608 608 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 5.29x 2026-11-03 21:25 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hotpizza&case=169)

[Glock-18 | Wasteland Rebel (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-wasteland-rebel-factory-new) [Rovania](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Rovania) $115 115 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $153 153 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 1.33x 2026-11-11 16:47 UTC

[StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Neon Rider (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-neon-rider-well-worn) [CAROLE BASH'EM](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/CAROLE%20BASH'EM) $115 115 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $121 121 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 1.05x 2026-11-11 16:47 UTC

[Glock-18 | Wasteland Rebel (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-wasteland-rebel-field-tested) [Kursik](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Kursik) $115 115 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $133 133 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 1.16x 2026-11-11 16:47 UTC

[Galil AR | Chatterbox (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chatterbox-well-worn) [DrDiddleDad](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/DrDiddleDad) $115 115 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $144 144 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 1.25x 2026-11-11 16:47 UTC

[StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Wasteland Rebel (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-wasteland-rebel-minimal-wear) [Rovania](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Rovania) $115 115 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $120 120 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 1.04x 2026-11-11 16:47 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Monkey Business (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-monkey-business-field-tested) [CAROLE BASH'EM](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/CAROLE%20BASH'EM) $115 115 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $15.38 15.38 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.13x 2026-11-11 16:47 UTC

[M4A1-S | Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-battle-scarred) [Kursik](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Kursik) $115 115 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $126 126 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 1.09x 2026-11-11 16:47 UTC

[FAMAS | Roll Cage (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-roll-cage-field-tested) [DrDiddleDad](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/DrDiddleDad) $115 115 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $132 132 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 1.14x 2026-11-11 16:47 UTC

[StatTrak™ AWP | Man-o'-war (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-man-o-war-field-tested) [Baseketballl](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Baseketballl) $115 115 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $135 135 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 1.18x 2026-11-11 16:47 UTC

[M4A1-S | Mecha Industries (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-mecha-industries-field-tested) [Baseketballl](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Baseketballl) $115 115 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $117 117 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 1.02x 2026-11-11 16:47 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 3 Nov, 04:28 UTC | $115 | 87.46% | 103 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 51.1% Covert 7.2% red 8.1% Ancient 0.9% #eb4b4b 2.7% classified 22.0% pink 6.0% #d32ee6 2.0% best hit $608 (5.29x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.46 on average: an expected loss of $12.54 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt