---
title: "Emerald Hunter case on Hotpizza.gg: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Emerald Hunter ($105.00) on Hotpizza.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.20% from 113 items with odds, observed 84.77% over 5,751 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/170
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:52Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hotpizza.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hotpizza) / [Emerald Hunter](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/170)

# [Hotpizza.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hotpizza) · Emerald Hunter

A case on Hotpizza.gg (Covert Hunters), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hotpizza.gg's own item price converted from hotpizza point at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/170?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/170?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/170) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/170?window=all)

Price · $105.00 · 105 HOTPIZZA\_POINT

Advertised RTP · 87.20% · EV $91.56 from 113 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 84.77% · 5,751 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.5× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 26.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 61.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 85.36% ±5.09 678 openings

7 days · 85.20% ±1.91 4,787 openings

30 days · 84.77% ±1.75 5,751 openings

since tracking started · 84.77% ±1.75 5,751 openings

79.5% 85.3% 91.0%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 87.20% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (83.03% – 86.52%, 5,751 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/170?window=24h) | 678 | 85.36% ±5.09 | −0.7σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/170?window=7d) | 4,787 | 85.20% ±1.91 | −2.0σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/170) | 5,751 | 84.77% ±1.75 | −2.7σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/170?window=all) | 5,751 | 84.77% ±1.75 | −2.7σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 113 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5,762 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AK-47 \| Leet Museo (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-leet-museo-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $701 701 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.8% | 5 | 5.8 | 0.87× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| The Empress (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-the-empress-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $464 464 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.5% | 3 | 5.8 | 0.52× |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-ocean-drive-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $456 456 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.5% | 8 | 5.8 | 1.39× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Leet Museo (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-leet-museo-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $414 414 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.5% | 3 | 5.8 | 0.52× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-ocean-drive-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $385 385 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.4% | 4 | 5.8 | 0.69× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-bloodsport-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $376 376 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.4% | 8 | 5.8 | 1.39× |
| [AK-47 \| The Empress (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $346 346 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.4% | 3 | 5.8 | 0.52× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-bloodsport-minimal-wear) | 1 in 500 | $345 345 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.8% | 13 | 11.5 | 1.13× |
| [StatTrak™ P90 \| Asiimov (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-asiimov-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $337 337 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.7% | 11 | 11.5 | 0.95× |
| [P90 \| Asiimov (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-asiimov-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $304 304 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.7% | 15 | 11.5 | 1.30× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-bloodsport-well-worn) | 1 in 500 | $296 296 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.6% | 5 | 11.5 | 0.43× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-bloodsport-field-tested) | 1 in 500 | $286 286 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.6% | 6 | 11.5 | 0.52× |
| [AK-47 \| Leet Museo (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-leet-museo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 500 | $284 284 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.6% | 11 | 11.5 | 0.95× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-cyrex-factory-new) | 1 in 333 | $273 273 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.9% | 12 | 17.3 | 0.69× |
| [StatTrak™ P90 \| Asiimov (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-asiimov-minimal-wear) | 1 in 333 | $245 245 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.8% | 13 | 17.3 | 0.75× |
| [M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-cyrex-factory-new) | 1 in 333 | $243 243 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.8% | 16 | 17.3 | 0.93× |
| [M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-cyrex-minimal-wear) | 1 in 333 | $228 228 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.7% | 13 | 17.3 | 0.75× |
| [P90 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 333 | $227 227 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.7% | 13 | 17.3 | 0.75× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-cyrex-minimal-wear) | 1 in 333 | $225 225 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.7% | 13 | 17.3 | 0.75× |
| [AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-factory-new) | 1 in 333 | $221 221 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.7% | 19 | 17.3 | 1.10× |
| [M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-cyrex-well-worn) | 1 in 333 | $215 215 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.7% | 22 | 17.3 | 1.27× |
| [P90 \| Asiimov (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-asiimov-minimal-wear) | 1 in 333 | $213 213 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.7% | 20 | 17.3 | 1.16× |
| [P90 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-asiimov-well-worn) | 1 in 250 | $212 212 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.9% | 29 | 23.0 | 1.26× |
| [AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-minimal-wear) | 1 in 250 | $207 207 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.9% | 15 | 23.0 | 0.65× |
| [StatTrak™ P90 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 250 | $203 203 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.9% | 15 | 23.0 | 0.65× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-cyrex-field-tested) | 1 in 250 | $200 200 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.9% | 14 | 23.0 | 0.61× |
| [M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-cyrex-field-tested) | 1 in 250 | $197 197 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.9% | 24 | 23.0 | 1.04× |
| [StatTrak™ P90 \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-asiimov-battle-scarred) | 1 in 200 | $197 197 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.1% | 26 | 28.8 | 0.90× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-cyrex-well-worn) | 1 in 200 | $195 195 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.1% | 22 | 28.8 | 0.76× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| The Empress (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-the-empress-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $195 195 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.1% | 25 | 28.8 | 0.87× |
| [AK-47 \| Leet Museo (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-leet-museo-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $183 183 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.0% | 29 | 28.8 | 1.01× |
| [P90 \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-asiimov-battle-scarred) | 1 in 167 | $180 180 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.2% | 42 | 34.6 | 1.21× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-cyrex-battle-scarred) | 1 in 167 | $179 179 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.2% | 27 | 34.6 | 0.78× |
| [StatTrak™ P90 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-asiimov-well-worn) | 1 in 167 | $177 177 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.2% | 25 | 34.6 | 0.72× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Nightwish (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-nightwish-factory-new) | 1 in 167 | $177 177 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.2% | 27 | 34.6 | 0.78× |
| [M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-cyrex-battle-scarred) | 1 in 167 | $177 177 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.2% | 32 | 34.6 | 0.93× |
| [AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-well-worn) | 1 in 167 | $177 177 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.2% | 37 | 34.6 | 1.07× |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-neo-noir-factory-new) | 1 in 167 | $175 175 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.1% | 33 | 34.6 | 0.95× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Leet Museo (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-leet-museo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 167 | $174 174 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.1% | 37 | 34.6 | 1.07× |
| [AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-field-tested) | 1 in 167 | $174 174 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.1% | 35 | 34.6 | 1.01× |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-ocean-drive-minimal-wear) | 1 in 167 | $167 167 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.1% | 36 | 34.6 | 1.04× |
| [AK-47 \| Nightwish (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish-factory-new) | 1 in 167 | $158 158 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.0% | 34 | 34.6 | 0.98× |
| [USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-neo-noir-factory-new) | 1 in 167 | $144 144 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.9% | 44 | 34.6 | 1.27× |
| [P250 \| See Ya Later (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-see-ya-later-factory-new) | 1 in 111 | $137 137 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.3% | 49 | 51.9 | 0.94× |
| [StatTrak™ P250 \| See Ya Later (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-see-ya-later-factory-new) | 1 in 111 | $137 137 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.3% | 51 | 51.9 | 0.98× |
| [MP9 \| Starlight Protector (Factory New) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-starlight-protector-factory-new) | 1 in 111 | $137 137 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.3% | 59 | 51.9 | 1.14× |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-neo-noir-minimal-wear) | 1 in 111 | $129 129 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.3% | 65 | 51.9 | 1.25× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Leet Museo (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-leet-museo-battle-scarred) | 1 in 111 | $129 129 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.3% | 62 | 51.9 | 1.20× |
| [P250 \| See Ya Later (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-see-ya-later-minimal-wear) | 1 in 111 | $126 126 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.2% | 41 | 51.9 | 0.79× |
| [AK-47 \| Leet Museo (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-leet-museo-well-worn) | 1 in 111 | $124 124 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.2% | 63 | 51.9 | 1.21× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Leet Museo (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-leet-museo-field-tested) | 1 in 111 | $122 122 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.2% | 54 | 51.9 | 1.04× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Leet Museo (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-leet-museo-well-worn) | 1 in 100 | $122 122 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.3% | 64 | 57.6 | 1.11× |
| [P250 \| See Ya Later (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-see-ya-later-well-worn) | 1 in 100 | $121 121 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.3% | 61 | 57.6 | 1.06× |
| [StatTrak™ MP9 \| Starlight Protector (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-starlight-protector-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $121 121 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.3% | 53 | 57.6 | 0.92× |
| [USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-neo-noir-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $120 120 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.3% | 47 | 57.6 | 0.82× |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-neo-noir-well-worn) | 1 in 100 | $119 119 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.3% | 54 | 57.6 | 0.94× |
| [P250 \| See Ya Later (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-see-ya-later-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $118 118 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.3% | 68 | 57.6 | 1.18× |
| [AK-47 \| The Empress (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $118 118 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.3% | 41 | 57.6 | 0.71× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| The Empress (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-the-empress-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $117 117 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.3% | 46 | 57.6 | 0.80× |
| [AK-47 \| The Empress (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-well-worn) | 1 in 100 | $114 114 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.2% | 53 | 57.6 | 0.92× |
| [AK-47 \| The Empress (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $112 112 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.2% | 60 | 57.6 | 1.04× |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-neo-noir-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $112 112 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.2% | 52 | 57.6 | 0.90× |
| [AK-47 \| The Empress (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $111 111 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.2% | 63 | 57.6 | 1.09× |
| [USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-neo-noir-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $108 108 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.2% | 50 | 57.6 | 0.87× |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-ocean-drive-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $107 107 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.2% | 60 | 57.6 | 1.04× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-ocean-drive-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $106 106 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.2% | 49 | 57.6 | 0.85× |
| [StatTrak™ P250 \| See Ya Later (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-see-ya-later-well-worn) | 1 in 100 | $106 106 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.2% | 59 | 57.6 | 1.02× |
| [StatTrak™ P250 \| See Ya Later (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-see-ya-later-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $103 103 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.1% | 55 | 57.6 | 0.95× |
| [USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-neo-noir-well-worn) | 1 in 100 | $103 103 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.1% | 59 | 57.6 | 1.02× |
| [AK-47 \| Leet Museo (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-leet-museo-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $101 101 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.1% | 49 | 57.6 | 0.85× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| The Empress (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-the-empress-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $100 100 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.1% | 67 | 57.6 | 1.16× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| The Empress (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-the-empress-well-worn) | 1 in 100 | $99.59 99.59 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.1% | 46 | 57.6 | 0.80× |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-neo-noir-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $97.98 97.98 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.1% | 69 | 57.6 | 1.20× |
| [StatTrak™ P250 \| See Ya Later (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-see-ya-later-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $95.45 95.45 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.0% | 58 | 57.6 | 1.01× |
| [USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-neo-noir-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $93.48 93.48 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.0% | 52 | 57.6 | 0.90× |
| [P250 \| See Ya Later (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-see-ya-later-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $92.65 92.65 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.0% | 61 | 57.6 | 1.06× |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-ocean-drive-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $91.36 91.36 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.0% | 65 | 57.6 | 1.13× |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-ocean-drive-well-worn) | 1 in 100 | $90.34 90.34 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.0% | 54 | 57.6 | 0.94× |
| [StatTrak™ P250 \| See Ya Later (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-see-ya-later-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $87.01 87.01 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.0% | 59 | 57.6 | 1.02× |
| [MP9 \| Starlight Protector (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-starlight-protector-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $86.45 86.45 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.9% | 62 | 57.6 | 1.08× |
| [MP9 \| Starlight Protector (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-starlight-protector-well-worn) | 1 in 100 | $85.82 85.82 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.9% | 58 | 57.6 | 1.01× |
| [StatTrak™ MP9 \| Starlight Protector (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-starlight-protector-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $85.74 85.74 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.9% | 62 | 57.6 | 1.08× |
| [AK-47 \| Nightwish (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish-well-worn) | 1 in 100 | $85.08 85.08 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.9% | 49 | 57.6 | 0.85× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Nightwish (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-nightwish-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $83.88 83.88 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.9% | 67 | 57.6 | 1.16× |
| [MP9 \| Starlight Protector (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-starlight-protector-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $82.03 82.03 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.9% | 59 | 57.6 | 1.02× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-ocean-drive-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $77.74 77.74 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.8% | 51 | 57.6 | 0.89× |
| [AK-47 \| Nightwish (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $77.68 77.68 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.8% | 62 | 57.6 | 1.08× |
| [AK-47 \| Nightwish (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $75.02 75.02 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.8% | 44 | 57.6 | 0.76× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-ocean-drive-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $74.77 74.77 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.8% | 67 | 57.6 | 1.16× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-ocean-drive-well-worn) | 1 in 100 | $73.09 73.09 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.8% | 56 | 57.6 | 0.97× |
| [StatTrak™ MP9 \| Starlight Protector (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-starlight-protector-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $72.58 72.58 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.8% | 54 | 57.6 | 0.94× |
| [MP9 \| Starlight Protector (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-starlight-protector-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $72.47 72.47 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.8% | 70 | 57.6 | 1.21× |
| [StatTrak™ MP9 \| Starlight Protector (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-starlight-protector-well-worn) | 1 in 100 | $70.80 70.8 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.8% | 62 | 57.6 | 1.08× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Nightwish (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-nightwish-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $68.44 68.44 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.7% | 70 | 57.6 | 1.21× |
| [AK-47 \| Nightwish (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $67.56 67.56 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.7% | 58 | 57.6 | 1.01× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Nightwish (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-nightwish-well-worn) | 1 in 100 | $65.71 65.71 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.7% | 58 | 57.6 | 1.01× |
| [StatTrak™ MP9 \| Starlight Protector (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-starlight-protector-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $64.61 64.61 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.7% | 47 | 57.6 | 0.82× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Nightwish (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-nightwish-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $63.89 63.89 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.7% | 55 | 57.6 | 0.95× |
| [Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-water-elemental-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $24.29 24.29 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.5% | 137 | 115.2 | 1.19× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Fowl Play (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fowl-play-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $22.37 22.37 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.5% | 111 | 115.2 | 0.96× |
| [Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-snack-attack-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $21.08 21.08 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.5% | 110 | 115.2 | 0.95× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Conspiracy (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-conspiracy-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $20.60 20.6 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.4% | 117 | 115.2 | 1.02× |
| [SSG 08 \| Turbo Peek (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-turbo-peek-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $20.45 20.45 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.4% | 122 | 115.2 | 1.06× |
| [MAC-10 \| Toybox (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-toybox-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $20.41 20.41 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.4% | 120 | 115.2 | 1.04× |
| [AWP \| Fever Dream (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $17.06 17.06 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.4% | 132 | 115.2 | 1.15× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Xiangliu (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-xiangliu-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $16.03 16.03 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.4% | 115 | 115.2 | 1.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $14.45 14.45 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.3% | 113 | 115.2 | 0.98× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Llama Cannon (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-llama-cannon-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $10.43 10.43 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.2% | 104 | 115.2 | 0.90× |
| [PP-Bizon \| High Roller (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-high-roller-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $10.06 10.06 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.2% | 131 | 115.2 | 1.14× |
| [M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-leaded-glass-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $8.89 8.89 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.2% | 128 | 115.2 | 1.11× |
| [FAMAS \| Rapid Eye Movement (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-rapid-eye-movement-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $8.22 8.22 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.2% | 120 | 115.2 | 1.04× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Melondrama (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-melondrama-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $7.87 7.87 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.2% | 123 | 115.2 | 1.07× |
| [MP7 \| Abyssal Apparition (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-abyssal-apparition-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $7.82 7.82 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.2% | 106 | 115.2 | 0.92× |

Values are Hotpizza.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hotpizza:api/data`, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[AK-47 | Leet Museo (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-leet-museo-factory-new) [джозепе](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/%D0%B4%D0%B6%D0%BE%D0%B7%D0%B5%D0%BF%D0%B5) $105 105 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $701 701 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 6.67x 2026-11-09 09:28 UTC

[AK-47 | Leet Museo (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-leet-museo-factory-new) [Amyyyy | 白い](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Amyyyy%20%7C%20%E7%99%BD%E3%81%84) $105 105 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $701 701 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 6.67x 2026-11-05 09:51 UTC

[AK-47 | Leet Museo (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-leet-museo-factory-new) [Co(u)m](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Co%28u%29m) $105 105 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $701 701 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 6.67x 2026-11-05 09:02 UTC

[AK-47 | Leet Museo (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-leet-museo-factory-new) [Apophiz](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Apophiz) $105 105 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $701 701 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 6.67x 2026-11-05 02:28 UTC

[AK-47 | Leet Museo (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-leet-museo-factory-new) [Sandro](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Sandro) $105 105 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $701 701 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 6.67x 2026-11-04 12:28 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hotpizza&case=170)

[StatTrak™ AK-47 | Leet Museo (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-leet-museo-battle-scarred) [acT](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/acT) $105 105 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $129 129 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 1.23x 2026-11-11 13:52 UTC

[StatTrak™ P90 | Asiimov (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-asiimov-well-worn) [Abdrosel](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Abdrosel) $105 105 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $177 177 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 1.69x 2026-11-11 13:36 UTC

[USP-S | Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-neo-noir-field-tested) [Harumi](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Harumi) $105 105 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $120 120 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 1.14x 2026-11-11 13:36 UTC

[R8 Revolver | Llama Cannon (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-llama-cannon-field-tested) [Haryayiar](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Haryayiar) $105 105 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $10.43 10.43 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.10x 2026-11-11 13:36 UTC

[MP9 | Starlight Protector (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-starlight-protector-field-tested) [Abdrosel](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Abdrosel) $105 105 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $86.45 86.45 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.82x 2026-11-11 13:36 UTC

[StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Ocean Drive (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-ocean-drive-minimal-wear) [Harumi](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Harumi) $105 105 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $167 167 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 1.59x 2026-11-11 13:36 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Ocean Drive (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-ocean-drive-well-worn) [Haryayiar](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Haryayiar) $105 105 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $73.09 73.09 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.70x 2026-11-11 13:36 UTC

[USP-S | Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-neo-noir-minimal-wear) [Forever Young](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Forever%20Young) $105 105 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $108 108 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 1.03x 2026-11-11 13:30 UTC

[StatTrak™ MP9 | Starlight Protector (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-starlight-protector-battle-scarred) [AzTech](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/AzTech) $105 105 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $64.61 64.61 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.62x 2026-11-11 13:30 UTC

[StatTrak™ AK-47 | Nightwish (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-nightwish-battle-scarred) [AzTech](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/AzTech) $105 105 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $63.89 63.89 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.61x 2026-11-11 13:30 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 3 Nov, 04:28 UTC | $105 | 87.20% | 113 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 55.1% rare 0.1% #eb4b4b 0.8% Covert 1.4% red 10.1% Ancient 2.5% classified 16.0% #d32ee6 2.0% pink 10.0% Legendary 2.0% best hit $701 (6.67x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.2% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.20 on average: an expected loss of $12.80 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt