---
title: "Fade Hunter case on Hotpizza.gg: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Fade Hunter ($85.00) on Hotpizza.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.38% from 98 items with odds, observed 87.38% over 6,188 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/171
rendered: 2026-11-11T17:35Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hotpizza.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hotpizza) / [Fade Hunter](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/171)

# [Hotpizza.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hotpizza) · Fade Hunter

A case on Hotpizza.gg (Covert Hunters), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hotpizza.gg's own item price converted from hotpizza point at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/171?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/171?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/171) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/171?window=all)

Price · $85.00 · 85 HOTPIZZA\_POINT

Advertised RTP · 87.38% · EV $74.27 from 98 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 87.38% · 6,188 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.4× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 26.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 71.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 88.62% ±4.74 683 openings

7 days · 86.76% ±1.74 5,047 openings

30 days · 87.38% ±1.58 6,188 openings

since tracking started · 87.38% ±1.58 6,188 openings

83.0% 88.5% 94.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/171?window=24h) | 683 | 88.62% ±4.74 | +0.5σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/171?window=7d) | 5,047 | 86.76% ±1.74 | −0.7σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/171) | 6,188 | 87.38% ±1.58 | +0.0σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/171?window=all) | 6,188 | 87.38% ±1.58 | +0.0σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 98 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 6,205 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-neon-rider-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $472 472 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.6% | 13 | 6.2 | 2.10× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Royal Paladin (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-royal-paladin-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $402 402 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.5% | 5 | 6.2 | 0.81× |
| [M4A4 \| Royal Paladin (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-royal-paladin-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $384 384 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.5% | 9 | 6.2 | 1.45× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Wildfire (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-wildfire-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $378 378 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.5% | 3 | 6.2 | 0.48× |
| [StatTrak™ P90 \| Asiimov (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-asiimov-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $337 337 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.5% | 5 | 6.2 | 0.81× |
| [P90 \| Asiimov (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-asiimov-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $304 304 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.4% | 5 | 6.2 | 0.81× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $291 291 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.4% | 7 | 6.2 | 1.13× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $289 289 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.4% | 5 | 6.2 | 0.81× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-cyrex-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $273 273 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.4% | 8 | 6.2 | 1.29× |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-code-red-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $272 272 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.4% | 4 | 6.2 | 0.64× |
| [AWP \| Wildfire (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $245 245 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.3% | 4 | 6.2 | 0.64× |
| [StatTrak™ P90 \| Asiimov (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-asiimov-minimal-wear) | 1 in 500 | $245 245 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.7% | 9 | 12.4 | 0.73× |
| [M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-cyrex-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $243 243 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.7% | 15 | 12.4 | 1.21× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-neon-rider-minimal-wear) | 1 in 500 | $234 234 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.6% | 12 | 12.4 | 0.97× |
| [M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-cyrex-minimal-wear) | 1 in 333 | $228 228 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.9% | 24 | 18.6 | 1.29× |
| [P90 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 333 | $227 227 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.9% | 19 | 18.6 | 1.02× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-cyrex-minimal-wear) | 1 in 333 | $225 225 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.9% | 26 | 18.6 | 1.40× |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-printstream-factory-new) | 1 in 333 | $218 218 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.9% | 18 | 18.6 | 0.97× |
| [M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-cyrex-well-worn) | 1 in 333 | $215 215 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.9% | 19 | 18.6 | 1.02× |
| [P90 \| Asiimov (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-asiimov-minimal-wear) | 1 in 250 | $213 213 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.1% | 19 | 24.8 | 0.77× |
| [P90 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-asiimov-well-worn) | 1 in 250 | $212 212 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.1% | 26 | 24.8 | 1.05× |
| [StatTrak™ P90 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 250 | $203 203 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.1% | 20 | 24.8 | 0.81× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-cyrex-field-tested) | 1 in 250 | $200 200 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.1% | 29 | 24.8 | 1.17× |
| [M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-cyrex-field-tested) | 1 in 250 | $197 197 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.1% | 23 | 24.8 | 0.93× |
| [StatTrak™ P90 \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-asiimov-battle-scarred) | 1 in 250 | $197 197 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.1% | 28 | 24.8 | 1.13× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-cyrex-well-worn) | 1 in 250 | $195 195 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.1% | 27 | 24.8 | 1.09× |
| [StatTrak™ R8 Revolver \| Fade (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-r8-revolver-fade-well-worn) | 1 in 250 | $193 193 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.0% | 21 | 24.8 | 0.85× |
| [P90 \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-asiimov-battle-scarred) | 1 in 200 | $180 180 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.2% | 30 | 31.0 | 0.97× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-cyrex-battle-scarred) | 1 in 200 | $179 179 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.2% | 26 | 31.0 | 0.84× |
| [StatTrak™ P90 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-asiimov-well-worn) | 1 in 200 | $177 177 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.2% | 34 | 31.0 | 1.10× |
| [M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-cyrex-battle-scarred) | 1 in 200 | $177 177 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.2% | 25 | 31.0 | 0.81× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Wildfire (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-wildfire-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $176 176 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.2% | 28 | 31.0 | 0.90× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Fade (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-fade-well-worn) | 1 in 167 | $161 161 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.3% | 46 | 37.2 | 1.24× |
| [StatTrak™ R8 Revolver \| Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-r8-revolver-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $141 141 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.9% | 34 | 31.0 | 1.10× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $140 140 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.9% | 27 | 31.0 | 0.87× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Royal Paladin (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-royal-paladin-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $138 138 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.9% | 26 | 31.0 | 0.84× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Wildfire (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-wildfire-battle-scarred) | 1 in 167 | $111 111 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.9% | 38 | 37.2 | 1.02× |
| [StatTrak™ R8 Revolver \| Fade (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-r8-revolver-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 167 | $111 111 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.9% | 36 | 37.2 | 0.97× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Royal Paladin (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-royal-paladin-well-worn) | 1 in 167 | $110 110 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.9% | 25 | 37.2 | 0.67× |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-code-red-minimal-wear) | 1 in 167 | $110 110 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.9% | 47 | 37.2 | 1.26× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Wildfire (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-wildfire-well-worn) | 1 in 167 | $110 110 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.9% | 48 | 37.2 | 1.29× |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-printstream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 167 | $109 109 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.9% | 31 | 37.2 | 0.83× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-neon-rider-field-tested) | 1 in 167 | $109 109 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.9% | 31 | 37.2 | 0.83× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-factory-new) | 1 in 167 | $107 107 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.9% | 36 | 37.2 | 0.97× |
| [M4A4 \| Royal Paladin (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-royal-paladin-minimal-wear) | 1 in 167 | $107 107 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.9% | 34 | 37.2 | 0.91× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-neon-rider-well-worn) | 1 in 167 | $105 105 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.8% | 42 | 37.2 | 1.13× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Wildfire (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-wildfire-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $100 100 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.4% | 66 | 62.0 | 1.06× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-neon-rider-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $97.68 97.68 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.3% | 60 | 62.0 | 0.97× |
| [StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Commemoration (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-famas-commemoration-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $96.26 96.26 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.3% | 53 | 62.0 | 0.85× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Royal Paladin (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-royal-paladin-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $93.05 93.05 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.3% | 64 | 62.0 | 1.03× |
| [FAMAS \| Commemoration (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-commemoration-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $92.90 92.9 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.3% | 62 | 62.0 | 1.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Royal Paladin (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-royal-paladin-well-worn) | 1 in 100 | $92.05 92.05 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.2% | 45 | 62.0 | 0.73× |
| [M4A4 \| Royal Paladin (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-royal-paladin-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $91.85 91.85 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.2% | 58 | 62.0 | 0.93× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Fade (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-fade-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $90.13 90.13 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.2% | 62 | 62.0 | 1.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Royal Paladin (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-royal-paladin-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $89.84 89.84 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.2% | 64 | 62.0 | 1.03× |
| [AWP \| Wildfire (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $89.16 89.16 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.2% | 69 | 62.0 | 1.11× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $88.83 88.83 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.2% | 61 | 62.0 | 0.98× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $87.56 87.56 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.2% | 52 | 62.0 | 0.84× |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-printstream-well-worn) | 1 in 100 | $83.95 83.95 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.1% | 80 | 62.0 | 1.29× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-legion-of-anubis-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $82.80 82.8 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.1% | 57 | 62.0 | 0.92× |
| [StatTrak™ R8 Revolver \| Fade (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-r8-revolver-fade-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $82.70 82.7 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.1% | 58 | 62.0 | 0.93× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Royal Paladin (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-royal-paladin-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $76.50 76.5 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.0% | 62 | 62.0 | 1.00× |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-code-red-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $73.94 73.94 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.0% | 64 | 62.0 | 1.03× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $73.92 73.92 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.0% | 45 | 62.0 | 0.73× |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $73.72 73.72 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.0% | 65 | 62.0 | 1.05× |
| [AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Factory New) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-legion-of-anubis-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $69.96 69.96 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.9% | 72 | 62.0 | 1.16× |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-code-red-well-worn) | 1 in 100 | $69.54 69.54 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.9% | 68 | 62.0 | 1.10× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-well-worn) | 1 in 100 | $69.20 69.2 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.9% | 53 | 62.0 | 0.85× |
| [AWP \| Wildfire (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-well-worn) | 1 in 100 | $66.82 66.82 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.9% | 65 | 62.0 | 1.05× |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-printstream-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $66.67 66.67 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.9% | 65 | 62.0 | 1.05× |
| [StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Commemoration (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-famas-commemoration-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $62.39 62.39 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.8% | 44 | 62.0 | 0.71× |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-code-red-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $61.91 61.91 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.8% | 75 | 62.0 | 1.21× |
| [AWP \| Wildfire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $60.78 60.78 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.8% | 53 | 62.0 | 0.85× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $55.54 55.54 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.7% | 56 | 62.0 | 0.90× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $53.48 53.48 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.7% | 64 | 62.0 | 1.03× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-legion-of-anubis-well-worn) | 1 in 100 | $52.07 52.07 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.7% | 73 | 62.0 | 1.18× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $51.55 51.55 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.7% | 57 | 62.0 | 0.92× |
| [StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Commemoration (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-famas-commemoration-well-worn) | 1 in 100 | $50.89 50.89 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.7% | 58 | 62.0 | 0.93× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $50.72 50.72 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.7% | 68 | 62.0 | 1.10× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-legion-of-anubis-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $50.57 50.57 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.7% | 77 | 62.0 | 1.24× |
| [StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Commemoration (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-famas-commemoration-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $50.29 50.29 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.7% | 60 | 62.0 | 0.97× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $48.24 48.24 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.3% | 148 | 124.1 | 1.19× |
| [StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Commemoration (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-famas-commemoration-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $47.59 47.59 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.3% | 134 | 124.1 | 1.08× |
| [AWP \| Wildfire (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-battle-scarred) | 1 in 50 | $46.33 46.33 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.2% | 126 | 124.1 | 1.02× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-well-worn) | 1 in 33 | $46.14 46.14 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.9% | 165 | 186.1 | 0.89× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-legion-of-anubis-battle-scarred) | 1 in 33 | $42.77 42.77 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.7% | 205 | 186.1 | 1.10× |
| [FAMAS \| Commemoration (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-commemoration-well-worn) | 1 in 33 | $42.46 42.46 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.7% | 206 | 186.1 | 1.11× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-legion-of-anubis-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $42.32 42.32 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.7% | 191 | 186.1 | 1.03× |
| [FAMAS \| Commemoration (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-commemoration-battle-scarred) | 1 in 33 | $39.38 39.38 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.6% | 180 | 186.1 | 0.97× |
| [FAMAS \| Commemoration (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-commemoration-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $39.24 39.24 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.6% | 171 | 186.1 | 0.92× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-battle-scarred) | 1 in 33 | $39.00 39 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.6% | 202 | 186.1 | 1.09× |
| [AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-legion-of-anubis-battle-scarred) | 1 in 33 | $38.96 38.96 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.6% | 193 | 186.1 | 1.04× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Well-Worn) weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-well-worn) | 1 in 33 | $38.52 38.52 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.6% | 179 | 186.1 | 0.96× |
| [AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-legion-of-anubis-well-worn) | 1 in 33 | $37.49 37.49 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.5% | 195 | 186.1 | 1.05× |
| [AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-legion-of-anubis-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $37.20 37.2 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.5% | 194 | 186.1 | 1.04× |
| [AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-legion-of-anubis-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $36.10 36.1 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.5% | 187 | 186.1 | 1.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $36.00 36 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.5% | 160 | 186.1 | 0.86× |
| [FAMAS \| Commemoration (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-commemoration-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $35.24 35.24 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.4% | 167 | 186.1 | 0.90× |

Values are Hotpizza.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hotpizza:api/data`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hotpizza&case=171)

[Desert Eagle | Printstream (Well-Worn) weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-well-worn) [Alpha\_25](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Alpha_25) $85.00 85 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $38.52 38.52 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.45x 2026-11-11 17:21 UTC

[StatTrak™ AK-47 | Legion of Anubis (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-legion-of-anubis-battle-scarred) [BTKM\_lyr1k](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/BTKM_lyr1k) $85.00 85 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $42.77 42.77 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.50x 2026-11-11 17:19 UTC

[R8 Revolver | Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-fade-minimal-wear) [HENTAI HAVEN](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/HENTAI%20HAVEN) $85.00 85 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $88.83 88.83 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 1.05x 2026-11-11 17:16 UTC

[FAMAS | Commemoration (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-commemoration-field-tested) [HENTAI HAVEN](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/HENTAI%20HAVEN) $85.00 85 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $35.24 35.24 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.41x 2026-11-11 17:16 UTC

[FAMAS | Commemoration (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-commemoration-battle-scarred) [BosseLasse](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/BosseLasse) $85.00 85 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $39.38 39.38 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.46x 2026-11-11 17:12 UTC

[AK-47 | Legion of Anubis (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-legion-of-anubis-minimal-wear) [Gucc107](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Gucc107) $85.00 85 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $37.20 37.2 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.44x 2026-11-11 17:12 UTC

[StatTrak™ AWP | Wildfire (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-wildfire-well-worn) [HENTAI HAVEN](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/HENTAI%20HAVEN) $85.00 85 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $110 110 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 1.29x 2026-11-11 17:07 UTC

[AK-47 | Legion of Anubis (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-legion-of-anubis-battle-scarred) [Чих Пых](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/%D0%A7%D0%B8%D1%85%20%D0%9F%D1%8B%D1%85) $85.00 85 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $38.96 38.96 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.46x 2026-11-11 17:06 UTC

[M4A1-S | Cyrex (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-cyrex-battle-scarred) [GermanMan](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/GermanMan) $85.00 85 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $177 177 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 2.08x 2026-11-11 17:00 UTC

[StatTrak™ FAMAS | Commemoration (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-famas-commemoration-field-tested) [MFG](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/MFG) $85.00 85 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $47.59 47.59 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.56x 2026-11-11 17:00 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 3 Nov, 04:28 UTC | $85.00 | 87.38% | 98 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 70.5% #eb4b4b 1.6% Ancient 9.5% red 12.6% Covert 5.8% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.4% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.38 on average: an expected loss of $12.62 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt