---
title: "Pandora Hunter case on Hotpizza.gg: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Pandora Hunter ($65.00) on Hotpizza.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 86.78% from 94 items with odds, observed 85.62% over 6,605 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/172
rendered: 2026-11-11T17:03Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hotpizza.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hotpizza) / [Pandora Hunter](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/172)

# [Hotpizza.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hotpizza) · Pandora Hunter

A case on Hotpizza.gg (Covert Hunters), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hotpizza.gg's own item price converted from hotpizza point at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/172?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/172?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/172) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/172?window=all)

Price · $65.00 · 65 HOTPIZZA\_POINT

Advertised RTP · 86.78% · EV $56.40 from 94 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 85.62% · 6,605 openings, odds method

Variance · 2.7× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 13 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 82.6% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 81.00% ±11.47 795 openings

7 days · 86.07% ±4.39 5,430 openings

30 days · 85.62% ±3.98 6,605 openings

since tracking started · 85.62% ±3.98 6,605 openings

69.0% 81.0% 93.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/172?window=24h) | 795 | 81.00% ±11.5 | −1.0σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/172?window=7d) | 5,430 | 86.07% ±4.39 | −0.3σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/172) | 6,605 | 85.62% ±3.98 | −0.6σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/172?window=all) | 6,605 | 85.62% ±3.98 | −0.6σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 94 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 6,627 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AWP \| Oni Taiji (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-oni-taiji-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,101 1,101 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.0% | 10 | 6.6 | 1.51× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Hyper Beast (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hyper-beast-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $721 721 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.3% | 5 | 6.6 | 0.75× |
| [M4A4 \| Buzz Kill (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-buzz-kill-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $682 682 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.2% | 5 | 6.6 | 0.75× |
| [M4A1-S \| Printstream (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $629 629 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.1% | 3 | 6.6 | 0.45× |
| [SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dragonfire-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $588 588 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.0% | 7 | 6.6 | 1.06× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) | 1 in 500 | $539 539 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.9% | 15 | 13.3 | 1.13× |
| [AWP \| Oni Taiji (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-oni-taiji-minimal-wear) | 1 in 500 | $507 507 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.8% | 9 | 13.3 | 0.68× |
| [M4A4 \| Buzz Kill (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-buzz-kill-minimal-wear) | 1 in 500 | $500 500 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.8% | 12 | 13.3 | 0.91× |
| [AWP \| Oni Taiji (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-oni-taiji-battle-scarred) | 1 in 333 | $496 496 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.6% | 20 | 19.9 | 1.01× |
| [M4A1-S \| Printstream (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 333 | $393 393 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.1% | 18 | 19.9 | 0.91× |
| [SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dragonfire-minimal-wear) | 1 in 333 | $391 391 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.1% | 20 | 19.9 | 1.01× |
| [AWP \| Oni Taiji (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-oni-taiji-well-worn) | 1 in 333 | $386 386 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.1% | 21 | 19.9 | 1.06× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hyper-beast-field-tested) | 1 in 250 | $375 375 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.7% | 28 | 26.5 | 1.06× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hyper-beast-well-worn) | 1 in 250 | $367 367 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.6% | 28 | 26.5 | 1.06× |
| [M4A4 \| Buzz Kill (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-buzz-kill-field-tested) | 1 in 250 | $359 359 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.5% | 22 | 26.5 | 0.83× |
| [SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dragonfire-field-tested) | 1 in 250 | $358 358 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.5% | 21 | 26.5 | 0.79× |
| [M4A4 \| Buzz Kill (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-buzz-kill-well-worn) | 1 in 250 | $354 354 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.5% | 28 | 26.5 | 1.06× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hyper-beast-battle-scarred) | 1 in 250 | $344 344 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.4% | 27 | 26.5 | 1.02× |
| [SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dragonfire-well-worn) | 1 in 250 | $338 338 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.4% | 26 | 26.5 | 0.98× |
| [AWP \| Oni Taiji (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-oni-taiji-field-tested) | 1 in 250 | $337 337 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.4% | 32 | 26.5 | 1.21× |
| [Glock-18 \| Neo-Noir (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-neo-noir-factory-new) | 1 in 250 | $337 337 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.4% | 23 | 26.5 | 0.87× |
| [SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dragonfire-battle-scarred) | 1 in 250 | $329 329 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.3% | 25 | 26.5 | 0.94× |
| [M4A4 \| Buzz Kill (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-buzz-kill-battle-scarred) | 1 in 250 | $326 326 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.3% | 32 | 26.5 | 1.21× |
| [M4A1-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 250 | $258 258 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.8% | 27 | 26.5 | 1.02× |
| [M4A1-S \| Printstream (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-well-worn) | 1 in 200 | $250 250 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.2% | 28 | 33.1 | 0.85× |
| [USP-S \| The Traitor (Factory New) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-the-traitor-factory-new) | 1 in 167 | $201 201 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.1% | 36 | 39.8 | 0.91× |
| [M4A1-S \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-battle-scarred) | 1 in 167 | $189 189 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.0% | 45 | 39.8 | 1.13× |
| [M4A4 \| In Living Color (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-in-living-color-factory-new) | 1 in 167 | $170 170 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.8% | 41 | 39.8 | 1.03× |
| [USP-S \| Printstream (Factory New) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-printstream-factory-new) | 1 in 167 | $168 168 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.8% | 37 | 39.8 | 0.93× |
| [M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-neo-noir-factory-new) | 1 in 167 | $168 168 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.8% | 37 | 39.8 | 0.93× |
| [M4A4 \| Temukau (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-temukau-factory-new) | 1 in 167 | $157 157 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.7% | 42 | 39.8 | 1.06× |
| [AK-47 \| Head Shot (Factory New) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-head-shot-factory-new) | 1 in 167 | $141 141 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.5% | 32 | 39.8 | 0.80× |
| [MP7 \| Bloodsport (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-bloodsport-factory-new) | 1 in 167 | $112 112 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.2% | 30 | 39.8 | 0.75× |
| [AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chromatic-aberration-factory-new) | 1 in 167 | $104 104 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.1% | 33 | 39.8 | 0.83× |
| [Glock-18 \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-neo-noir-minimal-wear) | 1 in 167 | $82.31 82.31 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.9% | 55 | 39.8 | 1.38× |
| [USP-S \| The Traitor (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-the-traitor-minimal-wear) | 1 in 143 | $81.65 81.65 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.0% | 49 | 46.4 | 1.06× |
| [M4A4 \| Temukau (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-temukau-minimal-wear) | 1 in 143 | $76.87 76.87 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.0% | 60 | 46.4 | 1.29× |
| [M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-neo-noir-minimal-wear) | 1 in 125 | $74.27 74.27 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.1% | 64 | 53.0 | 1.21× |
| [AK-47 \| Head Shot (Minimal Wear) weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-head-shot-minimal-wear) | 1 in 125 | $65.86 65.86 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.9% | 50 | 53.0 | 0.94× |
| [USP-S \| Printstream (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-printstream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 125 | $65.20 65.2 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.9% | 45 | 53.0 | 0.85× |
| [M4A4 \| In Living Color (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-in-living-color-minimal-wear) | 1 in 125 | $60.63 60.63 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.9% | 53 | 53.0 | 1.00× |
| [MP7 \| Bloodsport (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-bloodsport-minimal-wear) | 1 in 125 | $51.39 51.39 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.7% | 47 | 53.0 | 0.89× |
| [Glock-18 \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-neo-noir-field-tested) | 1 in 125 | $48.35 48.35 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.7% | 57 | 53.0 | 1.08× |
| [M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-neo-noir-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $47.35 47.35 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.8% | 76 | 66.3 | 1.15× |
| [AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chromatic-aberration-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $46.85 46.85 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.8% | 80 | 66.3 | 1.21× |
| [USP-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $46.04 46.04 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.8% | 55 | 66.3 | 0.83× |
| [USP-S \| The Traitor (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-the-traitor-well-worn) | 1 in 100 | $44.36 44.36 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.8% | 59 | 66.3 | 0.89× |
| [M4A4 \| Temukau (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-temukau-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $42.80 42.8 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.8% | 64 | 66.3 | 0.97× |
| [USP-S \| The Traitor (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-the-traitor-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $42.60 42.6 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.8% | 60 | 66.3 | 0.91× |
| [AK-47 \| Head Shot (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-head-shot-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $40.15 40.15 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.7% | 82 | 66.3 | 1.24× |
| [M4A4 \| In Living Color (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-in-living-color-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $39.68 39.68 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.7% | 67 | 66.3 | 1.01× |
| [USP-S \| Printstream (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-printstream-well-worn) | 1 in 100 | $39.12 39.12 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.7% | 63 | 66.3 | 0.95× |
| [Glock-18 \| Neo-Noir (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-neo-noir-well-worn) | 1 in 100 | $38.86 38.86 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.7% | 72 | 66.3 | 1.09× |
| [AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chromatic-aberration-well-worn) | 1 in 100 | $38.60 38.6 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.7% | 76 | 66.3 | 1.15× |
| [MP7 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-bloodsport-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $38.48 38.48 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.7% | 79 | 66.3 | 1.19× |
| [Glock-18 \| Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-neo-noir-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $38.30 38.3 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.7% | 53 | 66.3 | 0.80× |
| [M4A4 \| In Living Color (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-in-living-color-well-worn) | 1 in 100 | $37.27 37.27 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.7% | 64 | 66.3 | 0.97× |
| [MP7 \| Bloodsport (Well-Worn) weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-bloodsport-well-worn) | 1 in 100 | $37.06 37.06 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.7% | 68 | 66.3 | 1.03× |
| [M4A4 \| Temukau (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-temukau-well-worn) | 1 in 100 | $36.54 36.54 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.6% | 71 | 66.3 | 1.07× |
| [AK-47 \| Head Shot (Well-Worn) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-head-shot-well-worn) | 1 in 100 | $36.44 36.44 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.6% | 62 | 66.3 | 0.94× |
| [USP-S \| The Traitor (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-the-traitor-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $35.45 35.45 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.6% | 67 | 66.3 | 1.01× |
| [USP-S \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-printstream-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $35.33 35.33 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.6% | 63 | 66.3 | 0.95× |
| [M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-neo-noir-well-worn) | 1 in 100 | $35.27 35.27 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.6% | 74 | 66.3 | 1.12× |
| [M4A4 \| Temukau (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-temukau-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $33.85 33.85 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.6% | 53 | 66.3 | 0.80× |
| [AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chromatic-aberration-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $33.19 33.19 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.6% | 61 | 66.3 | 0.92× |
| [AK-47 \| Head Shot (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-head-shot-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $33.10 33.1 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.6% | 71 | 66.3 | 1.07× |
| [MP7 \| Bloodsport (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-bloodsport-battle-scarred) | 1 in 71 | $33.01 33.01 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.8% | 109 | 92.8 | 1.17× |
| [M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-neo-noir-battle-scarred) | 1 in 71 | $31.52 31.52 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.8% | 90 | 92.8 | 0.97× |
| [AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chromatic-aberration-battle-scarred) | 1 in 71 | $31.14 31.14 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.8% | 81 | 92.8 | 0.87× |
| [M4A4 \| In Living Color (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-in-living-color-battle-scarred) | 1 in 50 | $30.71 30.71 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.1% | 137 | 132.5 | 1.03× |
| [AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $10.61 10.61 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.4% | 137 | 132.5 | 1.03× |
| [MP9 \| Food Chain (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-food-chain-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $8.77 8.77 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.3% | 126 | 132.5 | 0.95× |
| [Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chromatic-aberration-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $8.76 8.76 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.3% | 136 | 132.5 | 1.03× |
| [USP-S \| Cortex (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $8.44 8.44 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.3% | 144 | 132.5 | 1.09× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Kiss♥Love (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-kiss-love-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $8.06 8.06 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.3% | 135 | 132.5 | 1.02× |
| [XM1014 \| XOXO (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-xoxo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $7.62 7.62 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.3% | 116 | 132.5 | 0.88× |
| [P2000 \| Wicked Sick (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-wicked-sick-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $7.45 7.45 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.3% | 145 | 132.5 | 1.09× |
| [AWP \| Mortis (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-mortis-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $7.32 7.32 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.3% | 131 | 132.5 | 0.99× |
| [AUG \| Stymphalian (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-stymphalian-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $7.06 7.06 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.3% | 139 | 132.5 | 1.05× |
| [AWP \| Duality (Minimal Wear) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-duality-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $7.04 7.04 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.2% | 136 | 132.5 | 1.03× |
| [UMP-45 \| Wild Child (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-wild-child-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $6.94 6.94 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.2% | 126 | 132.5 | 0.95× |
| [P250 \| Visions (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-visions-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $6.11 6.11 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.2% | 124 | 132.5 | 0.94× |
| [AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $5.74 5.74 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.2% | 121 | 132.5 | 0.91× |
| [Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chromatic-aberration-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $4.93 4.93 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.2% | 138 | 132.5 | 1.04× |
| [USP-S \| Cortex (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $4.88 4.88 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.2% | 129 | 132.5 | 0.97× |
| [AUG \| Stymphalian (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-stymphalian-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $4.79 4.79 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.2% | 130 | 132.5 | 0.98× |
| [P250 \| Visions (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-visions-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $4.51 4.51 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.2% | 129 | 132.5 | 0.97× |
| [UMP-45 \| Wild Child (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-wild-child-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $4.51 4.51 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.2% | 127 | 132.5 | 0.96× |
| [AWP \| Mortis (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-mortis-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $4.44 4.44 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.2% | 128 | 132.5 | 0.97× |
| [MP9 \| Food Chain (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-food-chain-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $4.40 4.4 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.2% | 143 | 132.5 | 1.08× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Kiss♥Love (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-kiss-love-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $4.19 4.19 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.1% | 122 | 132.5 | 0.92× |
| [XM1014 \| XOXO (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-xoxo-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $4.16 4.16 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.2% | 227 | 198.8 | 1.14× |
| [P2000 \| Wicked Sick (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-wicked-sick-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $4.14 4.14 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.2% | 192 | 198.8 | 0.97× |
| [AWP \| Duality (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-duality-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $4.10 4.1 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.2% | 184 | 198.8 | 0.93× |

Values are Hotpizza.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hotpizza:api/data`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[AWP | Oni Taiji (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-oni-taiji-factory-new) [GeT\_Ward](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/GeT_Ward) $65.00 65 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $1,101 1,101 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 16.94x 2026-11-10 18:49 UTC

[AWP | Oni Taiji (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-oni-taiji-factory-new) [LordMustang](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/LordMustang) $65.00 65 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $1,101 1,101 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 16.94x 2026-11-10 08:00 UTC

[AWP | Oni Taiji (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-oni-taiji-factory-new) [kawi](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/kawi) $65.00 65 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $1,101 1,101 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 16.94x 2026-11-08 11:29 UTC

[AWP | Oni Taiji (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-oni-taiji-factory-new) [ластхитмен](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/%D0%BB%D0%B0%D1%81%D1%82%D1%85%D0%B8%D1%82%D0%BC%D0%B5%D0%BD) $65.00 65 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $1,101 1,101 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 16.94x 2026-11-07 00:23 UTC

[AWP | Oni Taiji (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-oni-taiji-factory-new) [FeNiX](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/FeNiX) $65.00 65 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $1,101 1,101 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 16.94x 2026-11-06 12:55 UTC

[AWP | Oni Taiji (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-oni-taiji-factory-new) [ADsKa9](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/ADsKa9) $65.00 65 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $1,101 1,101 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 16.94x 2026-11-05 08:08 UTC

[AWP | Oni Taiji (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-oni-taiji-factory-new) [bonnie](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/bonnie) $65.00 65 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $1,101 1,101 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 16.94x 2026-11-05 02:13 UTC

[AWP | Oni Taiji (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-oni-taiji-factory-new) [CanoX](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/CanoX) $65.00 65 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $1,101 1,101 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 16.94x 2026-11-04 12:03 UTC

[AWP | Oni Taiji (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-oni-taiji-factory-new) [Clashman](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Clashman) $65.00 65 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $1,101 1,101 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 16.94x 2026-11-04 05:28 UTC

[AWP | Oni Taiji (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-oni-taiji-factory-new) [brus](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/brus) $65.00 65 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $1,101 1,101 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 16.94x 2026-11-04 04:37 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hotpizza&case=172)

[Galil AR | Chromatic Aberration (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chromatic-aberration-minimal-wear) [Ass Eater Of Worlds](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Ass%20Eater%20Of%20Worlds) $65.00 65 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $8.76 8.76 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.13x 2026-11-11 17:01 UTC

[P2000 | Wicked Sick (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-wicked-sick-minimal-wear) [✪ Stewie4.5k](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/%E2%9C%AA%20Stewie4.5k) $65.00 65 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $7.45 7.45 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.11x 2026-11-11 17:01 UTC

[AK-47 | Ice Coaled (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-minimal-wear) [Crossnain](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Crossnain) $65.00 65 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $10.61 10.61 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.16x 2026-11-11 17:01 UTC

[AK-47 | Head Shot (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-head-shot-battle-scarred) [GermanMan](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/GermanMan) $65.00 65 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $33.10 33.1 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.51x 2026-11-11 17:01 UTC

[USP-S | The Traitor (Factory New) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-the-traitor-factory-new) [MFG](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/MFG) $65.00 65 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $201 201 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 3.09x 2026-11-11 17:01 UTC

[XM1014 | XOXO (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-xoxo-field-tested) [MFG](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/MFG) $65.00 65 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $4.16 4.16 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.06x 2026-11-11 17:01 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hyper-beast-well-worn) [BlueBlaster](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/BlueBlaster) $65.00 65 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $367 367 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 5.64x 2026-11-11 16:59 UTC

[AK-47 | Ice Coaled (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-minimal-wear) [IR\_Uranus\_m](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/IR_Uranus_m) $65.00 65 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $10.61 10.61 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.16x 2026-11-11 16:56 UTC

[AUG | Stymphalian (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-stymphalian-minimal-wear) [cAlm](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/cAlm) $65.00 65 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $7.06 7.06 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.11x 2026-11-11 16:53 UTC

[AK-47 | Head Shot (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-head-shot-field-tested) [AwpticSkillz](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/AwpticSkillz) $65.00 65 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $40.15 40.15 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.62x 2026-11-11 16:53 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 3 Nov, 04:28 UTC | $65.00 | 86.78% | 94 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 25.6% Ancient 9.8% red 10.4% Covert 0.8% #eb4b4b 2.4% Legendary 15.0% pink 22.0% classified 10.0% #d32ee6 2.0% Classified 2.0% best hit $1,101 (16.94x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 86.8% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $86.78 on average: an expected loss of $13.22 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt