---
title: "Monster \"P\" case on Hotpizza.gg: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Monster \"P\" ($0.20) on Hotpizza.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 99.14% from 32 items with odds, observed 101.27% over 101K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/36
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:31Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hotpizza.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hotpizza) / [Monster "P"](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/36)

# [Hotpizza.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hotpizza) · Monster "P"

A case on Hotpizza.gg (Monster Pizza), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hotpizza.gg's own item price converted from hotpizza point at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/36?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/36?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/36) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/36?window=all)

Price · $0.20 · 0.2 HOTPIZZA\_POINT

Advertised RTP · 99.14% · EV $0.20 from 32 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 101.27% · 101K openings, odds method

Variance · 38.2× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 18.5% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 81.5% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 93.05% ±11.01 12.1K openings

7 days · 101.76% ±4.15 85.3K openings

30 days · 101.27% ±3.81 101K openings

since tracking started · 101.27% ±3.81 101K openings

81.5% 94.0% 106.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/36?window=24h) | 12.1K | 93.05% ±11.0 | −1.1σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/36?window=7d) | 85.3K | 101.76% ±4.15 | +1.2σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/36) | 101K | 101.27% ±3.81 | +1.1σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/36?window=all) | 101K | 101.27% ±3.81 | +1.1σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 32 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 102K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 10,000 | $118 118 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 6.0% | 17 | 10.2 | 1.67× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Exoskeleton (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-exoskeleton-minimal-wear) | 1 in 5,000 | $16.54 16.54 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.7% | 18 | 20.3 | 0.89× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Phoenix Marker (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-phoenix-marker-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $7.56 7.56 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.9% | 46 | 50.8 | 0.91× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Blue Streak (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-blue-streak-field-tested) | 1 in 1,429 | $2.98 2.98 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.1% | 56 | 71.1 | 0.79× |
| [Galil AR \| Stone Cold (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-stone-cold-well-worn) | 1 in 667 | $2.30 2.3 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.7% | 145 | 152.3 | 0.95× |
| [StatTrak™ MAG-7 \| Heat (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mag-7-heat-well-worn) | 1 in 333 | $1.61 1.61 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.4% | 287 | 304.5 | 0.94× |
| [Galil AR \| Kami (Battle-Scarred) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-kami-battle-scarred) | 1 in 250 | $1.52 1.52 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.1% | 367 | 406.0 | 0.90× |
| [SSG 08 \| Ghost Crusader (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-ghost-crusader-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $1.44 1.44 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.6% | 467 | 507.5 | 0.92× |
| [M4A1-S \| Electrum (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-electrum-field-tested) | 1 in 167 | $1.15 1.15 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.5% | 529 | 609.0 | 0.87× |
| [G3SG1 \| Dream Glade (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-dream-glade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 143 | $1.09 1.09 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.8% | 657 | 710.5 | 0.92× |
| [P250 \| X-Ray (Minimal Wear) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-x-ray-minimal-wear) | 1 in 125 | $0.43 0.43 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.7% | 813 | 812.0 | 1.00× |
| [Galil AR \| Destroyer (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-destroyer-factory-new) | 1 in 111 | $0.35 0.35 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.6% | 913 | 913.6 | 1.00× |
| [StatTrak™ Sawed-Off \| Yorick (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sawed-off-yorick-well-worn) | 1 in 67 | $0.34 0.34 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.6% | 1,604 | 1522.6 | 1.05× |
| [M4A1-S \| Mud-Spec (Field-Tested) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-mud-spec-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $0.32 0.32 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.2% | 2,122 | 2030.1 | 1.05× |
| [FAMAS \| Teardown (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-teardown-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $0.29 0.29 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.9% | 2,017 | 2030.1 | 0.99× |
| [Nova \| Wurst Hölle (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-wurst-holle-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $0.25 0.25 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.8% | 3,017 | 3045.2 | 0.99× |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| PC-GRN (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-pc-grn-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $0.24 0.24 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.4% | 2,018 | 2030.1 | 0.99× |
| [Galil AR \| Metallic Squeezer (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-metallic-squeezer-field-tested) | 1 in 29 | $0.22 0.22 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.9% | 3,541 | 3552.7 | 1.00× |
| [P90 \| Reef Grief (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-reef-grief-field-tested) | 1 in 18 | $0.18 0.18 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 5.0% | 5,559 | 5582.8 | 1.00× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Brass (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-brass-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $0.16 0.16 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 5.6% | 7,118 | 7105.4 | 1.00× |
| [MAG-7 \| Insomnia (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-insomnia-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $0.14 0.14 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.9% | 6,964 | 7105.4 | 0.98× |
| [Tec-9 \| Slag (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-slag-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $0.13 0.13 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.6% | 7,121 | 7105.4 | 1.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Safari Mesh (Well-Worn) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safari-mesh-well-worn) | 1 in 14 | $0.12 0.12 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.2% | 7,051 | 7105.4 | 0.99× |
| [M4A4 \| Urban DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-urban-ddpat-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $0.12 0.12 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.2% | 7,166 | 7105.4 | 1.01× |
| [P250 \| Metallic DDPAT (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-metallic-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $0.12 0.12 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.2% | 7,050 | 7105.4 | 0.99× |
| [FAMAS \| Meow 36 (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-meow-36-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $0.11 0.11 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.9% | 7,191 | 7105.4 | 1.01× |
| [M4A4 \| Zubastick (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-zubastick-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $0.11 0.11 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.9% | 7,181 | 7105.4 | 1.01× |
| [MP7 \| Sunbaked (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-sunbaked-battle-scarred) | 1 in 14 | $0.10 0.1 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.5% | 7,196 | 7105.4 | 1.01× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Poly Mag (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-poly-mag-well-worn) | 1 in 25 | $0.08 0.08 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.6% | 4,103 | 4060.2 | 1.01× |
| [P250 \| Re.built (Well-Worn) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-re-built-well-worn) | 1 in 25 | $0.08 0.08 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.6% | 4,006 | 4060.2 | 0.99× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Candy Apple (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-candy-apple-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $0.07 0.07 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.1% | 3,069 | 3045.2 | 1.01× |
| [UMP-45 \| Motorized (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-motorized-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $0.06 0.06 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.6% | 2,097 | 2030.1 | 1.03× |

Values are Hotpizza.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hotpizza:api/data`, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Navaja Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) [!Zicc ⇆ Buying Skins 24/7](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/!Zicc%20%E2%87%86%20Buying%20Skins%2024%2F7) $0.20 0.2 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $118 118 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 591.7x 2026-11-10 12:30 UTC

[★ Navaja Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) [Noxious Ghoul](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Noxious%20Ghoul) $0.20 0.2 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $118 118 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 591.7x 2026-11-10 00:54 UTC

[★ Navaja Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) [Eye Of The Tiger](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Eye%20Of%20The%20Tiger) $0.20 0.2 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $118 118 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 591.7x 2026-11-09 21:41 UTC

[★ Navaja Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) [Chum ](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Chum%20%EE%80%86) $0.20 0.2 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $118 118 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 591.7x 2026-11-09 03:58 UTC

[★ Navaja Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) [Friday](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Friday) $0.20 0.2 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $118 118 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 591.7x 2026-11-08 22:58 UTC

[★ Navaja Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) [GDM ♥ Poland™](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/GDM%20%E2%99%A5%20Poland%E2%84%A2) $0.20 0.2 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $118 118 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 591.7x 2026-11-08 07:29 UTC

[★ Navaja Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) [Hullaballoo](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Hullaballoo) $0.20 0.2 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $118 118 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 591.7x 2026-11-07 20:27 UTC

[★ Navaja Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) [Froze](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Froze) $0.20 0.2 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $118 118 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 591.7x 2026-11-07 01:03 UTC

[★ Navaja Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) [Roloo](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Roloo) $0.20 0.2 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $118 118 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 591.7x 2026-11-06 22:10 UTC

[★ Navaja Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) [Gorden](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Gorden) $0.20 0.2 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $118 118 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 591.7x 2026-11-06 20:24 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hotpizza&case=36)

[MP7 | Sunbaked (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-sunbaked-battle-scarred) [masafaksa](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/masafaksa) $0.20 0.2 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $0.10 0.1 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.50x 2026-11-11 13:31 UTC

[Galil AR | Destroyer (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-destroyer-factory-new) [Beeg Yoshi](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Beeg%20Yoshi) $0.20 0.2 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $0.35 0.35 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 1.75x 2026-11-11 13:31 UTC

[M4A4 | Urban DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-urban-ddpat-field-tested) [Ev1l](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Ev1l) $0.20 0.2 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $0.12 0.12 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.60x 2026-11-11 13:31 UTC

[M4A1-S | Mud-Spec (Field-Tested) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-mud-spec-field-tested) [ake eilish](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/ake%20eilish) $0.20 0.2 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $0.32 0.32 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 1.60x 2026-11-11 13:31 UTC

[P250 | Metallic DDPAT (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-metallic-ddpat-factory-new) [Slizefest](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Slizefest) $0.20 0.2 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $0.12 0.12 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.60x 2026-11-11 13:29 UTC

[M4A1-S | Mud-Spec (Field-Tested) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-mud-spec-field-tested) [Slizefest](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Slizefest) $0.20 0.2 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $0.32 0.32 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 1.60x 2026-11-11 13:29 UTC

[Galil AR | Metallic Squeezer (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-metallic-squeezer-field-tested) [fonky monky](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/fonky%20monky) $0.20 0.2 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $0.22 0.22 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 1.10x 2026-11-11 13:29 UTC

[P250 | Metallic DDPAT (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-metallic-ddpat-factory-new) [Sooto](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Sooto) $0.20 0.2 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $0.12 0.12 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.60x 2026-11-11 13:29 UTC

[P250 | Metallic DDPAT (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-metallic-ddpat-factory-new) [Amin Yahouse](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Amin%20Yahouse) $0.20 0.2 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $0.12 0.12 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.60x 2026-11-11 13:29 UTC

[Tec-9 | Slag (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-slag-minimal-wear) [Amin Yahouse](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Amin%20Yahouse) $0.20 0.2 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $0.13 0.13 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.65x 2026-11-11 13:29 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 3 Nov, 04:28 UTC | $0.20 | 99.14% | 32 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.0% restricted 0.4% industrial 17.1% violet 0.8% milspec 30.4% #8847ff 1.1% Restricted 0.8% Rare 0.9% light blue 2.0% mil spec 2.0% #4b69ff 18.0% blue 12.5% Uncommon 7.0% consumer 7.0% best hit $118 (591.7x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 99.1% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $99.14 on average: an expected loss of $0.86 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt