---
title: "Monster \"i\" case on Hotpizza.gg: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Monster \"i\" ($0.50) on Hotpizza.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 95.75% from 39 items with odds, observed 96.30% over 68.2K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/37
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:31Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hotpizza.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hotpizza) / [Monster "i"](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/37)

# [Hotpizza.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hotpizza) · Monster "i"

A case on Hotpizza.gg (Monster Pizza), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hotpizza.gg's own item price converted from hotpizza point at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/37?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/37?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/37) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/37?window=all)

Price · $0.50 · 0.5 HOTPIZZA\_POINT

Advertised RTP · 95.75% · EV $0.48 from 39 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 96.30% · 68.2K openings, odds method

Variance · 9.5× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 23.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 77.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 93.46% ±6.73 8,080 openings

7 days · 95.61% ±2.63 57.2K openings

30 days · 96.30% ±2.41 68.2K openings

since tracking started · 96.30% ±2.41 68.2K openings

86.0% 93.5% 101.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/37?window=24h) | 8,080 | 93.46% ±6.73 | −0.7σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/37?window=7d) | 57.2K | 95.61% ±2.63 | −0.3σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/37) | 68.2K | 96.30% ±2.41 | +0.2σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/37?window=all) | 68.2K | 96.30% ±2.41 | +0.2σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 39 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 68.4K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $121 121 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.5% | 12 | 6.8 | 1.75× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Fairy Tale (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fairy-tale-minimal-wear) | 1 in 5,000 | $45.78 45.78 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.9% | 10 | 13.7 | 0.73× |
| [Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-water-elemental-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,000 | $21.33 21.33 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.2% | 30 | 34.2 | 0.88× |
| [StatTrak™ Sawed-Off \| Wasteland Princess (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sawed-off-wasteland-princess-well-worn) | 1 in 1,429 | $11.33 11.33 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.7% | 43 | 47.9 | 0.90× |
| [M4A1-S \| Party Animal (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-party-animal-well-worn) | 1 in 1,250 | $10.01 10.01 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.7% | 63 | 54.7 | 1.15× |
| [Glock-18 \| Night (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-night-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,250 | $5.64 5.64 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.9% | 48 | 54.7 | 0.88× |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Block-18 (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-block-18-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $4.70 4.7 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.0% | 59 | 68.4 | 0.86× |
| [USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-jawbreaker-battle-scarred) | 1 in 500 | $3.56 3.56 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.5% | 136 | 136.8 | 0.99× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Etch Lord (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-etch-lord-minimal-wear) | 1 in 333 | $2.18 2.18 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.4% | 174 | 205.1 | 0.85× |
| [MAG-7 \| Core Breach (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-core-breach-field-tested) | 1 in 270 | $2.04 2.04 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.6% | 205 | 253.0 | 0.81× |
| [AWP \| Acheron (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-acheron-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $1.98 1.98 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.1% | 300 | 341.9 | 0.88× |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Trigger Discipline (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-trigger-discipline-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $1.33 1.33 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.8% | 620 | 683.8 | 0.91× |
| [StatTrak™ MP7 \| Urban Hazard (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp7-urban-hazard-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $1.20 1.2 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.5% | 661 | 683.8 | 0.97× |
| [AK-47 \| Uncharted (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-uncharted-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $0.95 0.95 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.0% | 725 | 683.8 | 1.06× |
| [Galil AR \| Galigator (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-galigator-field-tested) | 1 in 82 | $0.94 0.94 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.4% | 858 | 834.3 | 1.03× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Polished Malachite (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-polished-malachite-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $0.82 0.82 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.4% | 1,361 | 1367.7 | 1.00× |
| [P2000 \| Acid Etched (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-acid-etched-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $0.68 0.68 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.8% | 1,397 | 1367.7 | 1.02× |
| [M4A4 \| Sheet Lightning (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-sheet-lightning-battle-scarred) | 1 in 33 | $0.65 0.65 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.1% | 2,024 | 2051.5 | 0.99× |
| [USP-S \| Flashback (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-flashback-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $0.60 0.6 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.8% | 1,983 | 2051.5 | 0.97× |
| [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Dark Polymer (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-dark-polymer-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $0.58 0.58 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.6% | 2,023 | 2051.5 | 0.99× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Choppa (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-choppa-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $0.56 0.56 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.7% | 2,839 | 2735.3 | 1.04× |
| [M4A1-S \| Emphorosaur-S (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-emphorosaur-s-battle-scarred) | 1 in 25 | $0.48 0.48 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.0% | 2,756 | 2735.3 | 1.01× |
| [SSG 08 \| Halftone Whorl (Factory New) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-halftone-whorl-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $0.47 0.47 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.9% | 3,360 | 3419.1 | 0.98× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Tilted (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-tilted-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $0.43 0.43 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.5% | 3,353 | 3419.1 | 0.98× |
| [P90 \| Vent Rush (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-vent-rush-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $0.40 0.4 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 5.0% | 4,163 | 4103.0 | 1.01× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Blue Ply (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blue-ply-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $0.38 0.38 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.8% | 4,195 | 4103.0 | 1.02× |
| [USP-S \| Tropical Breeze (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-tropical-breeze-well-worn) | 1 in 14 | $0.34 0.34 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 5.0% | 4,845 | 4786.8 | 1.01× |
| [MP9 \| Bioleak (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-bioleak-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $0.32 0.32 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.0% | 4,014 | 4103.0 | 0.98× |
| [USP-S \| Alpine Camo (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-alpine-camo-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $0.31 0.31 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.2% | 3,505 | 3419.1 | 1.03× |
| [Negev \| Man-o'-war (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-man-o-war-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $0.30 0.3 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.1% | 3,402 | 3419.1 | 0.99× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Tilted (Well-Worn) weapon · blueLight](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-tilted-well-worn) | 1 in 20 | $0.28 0.28 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.9% | 3,479 | 3419.1 | 1.02× |
| [MAC-10 \| Sienna Damask (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-sienna-damask-well-worn) | 1 in 25 | $0.22 0.22 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.8% | 2,729 | 2735.3 | 1.00× |
| [SSG 08 \| Prey (Field-Tested) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-prey-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $0.20 0.2 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.7% | 2,795 | 2735.3 | 1.02× |
| [Glock-18 \| High Beam (Factory New) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-high-beam-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $0.19 0.19 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.6% | 2,759 | 2735.3 | 1.01× |
| [FAMAS \| 2A2F (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-2a2f-battle-scarred) | 1 in 33 | $0.17 0.17 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.1% | 2,079 | 2051.5 | 1.01× |
| [SSG 08 \| Blush Pour (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-blush-pour-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $0.14 0.14 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.6% | 1,402 | 1367.7 | 1.03× |
| [SSG 08 \| Calligrafaux (Minimal Wear) weapon · blueLight](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-calligrafaux-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $0.13 0.13 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.5% | 1,300 | 1367.7 | 0.95× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Dark Polymer (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-dark-polymer-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $0.11 0.11 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.5% | 1,372 | 1367.7 | 1.00× |
| [AK-47 \| VariCamo Grey (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-varicamo-grey-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $0.07 0.07 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.3% | 1,304 | 1367.7 | 0.95× |

Values are Hotpizza.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hotpizza:api/data`, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Falchion Knife | Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) [KrimZ](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/KrimZ) $0.50 0.5 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $129 129 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 257.2x 2026-11-08 00:54 UTC

[★ Falchion Knife | Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) [Bodya160](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Bodya160) $0.50 0.5 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $129 129 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 257.2x 2026-11-07 18:50 UTC

[★ Falchion Knife | Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) [GMayhem](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/GMayhem) $0.50 0.5 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $129 129 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 257.2x 2026-11-06 10:53 UTC

[★ Falchion Knife | Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) [blyat](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/blyat) $0.50 0.5 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $129 129 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 257.2x 2026-11-06 07:01 UTC

[★ Falchion Knife | Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) [Huysuki](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Huysuki) $0.50 0.5 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $129 129 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 257.2x 2026-11-05 07:58 UTC

[★ Falchion Knife | Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) [Advanced](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Advanced) $0.50 0.5 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $129 129 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 257.2x 2026-11-04 15:35 UTC

[★ Falchion Knife | Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) [FanShi ︻芫=--](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/FanShi%20%EF%B8%BB%E8%8A%AB%3D--) $0.50 0.5 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $129 129 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 257.2x 2026-11-04 05:13 UTC

[★ Falchion Knife | Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) [dauzzing](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/dauzzing) $0.50 0.5 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $129 129 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 257.2x 2026-11-04 04:53 UTC

[★ Falchion Knife | Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) [Qazar](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Qazar) $0.50 0.5 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $129 129 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 257.2x 2026-11-04 00:57 UTC

[★ Falchion Knife | Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) [KQLY](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/KQLY) $0.50 0.5 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $129 129 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 257.2x 2026-11-03 08:44 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hotpizza&case=37)

[Galil AR | Galigator (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-galigator-field-tested) [Slizefest](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Slizefest) $0.50 0.5 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $0.94 0.94 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 1.88x 2026-11-11 13:29 UTC

[SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-blush-pour-field-tested) [Slizefest](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Slizefest) $0.50 0.5 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $0.14 0.14 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.28x 2026-11-11 13:29 UTC

[USP-S | Tropical Breeze (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-tropical-breeze-well-worn) [Ev1l](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Ev1l) $0.50 0.5 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $0.34 0.34 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.68x 2026-11-11 13:29 UTC

[USP-S | Alpine Camo (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-alpine-camo-field-tested) [franczesko paltegumi](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/franczesko%20paltegumi) $0.50 0.5 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $0.31 0.31 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.62x 2026-11-11 13:29 UTC

[USP-S | Flashback (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-flashback-field-tested) [Ethiamach1](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Ethiamach1) $0.50 0.5 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $0.60 0.6 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 1.20x 2026-11-11 13:28 UTC

[MP9 | Bioleak (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-bioleak-field-tested) [Ethiamach1](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Ethiamach1) $0.50 0.5 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $0.32 0.32 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.64x 2026-11-11 13:28 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Tilted (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-tilted-minimal-wear) [Fax Ḇoiii](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Fax%20%E1%B8%86oiii) $0.50 0.5 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $0.43 0.43 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.86x 2026-11-11 13:28 UTC

[MAC-10 | Sienna Damask (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-sienna-damask-well-worn) [AlokinSkyLord123](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/AlokinSkyLord123) $0.50 0.5 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $0.22 0.22 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.44x 2026-11-11 13:28 UTC

[StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Dark Polymer (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-dark-polymer-minimal-wear) [smelvin](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/smelvin) $0.50 0.5 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $0.58 0.58 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 1.16x 2026-11-11 13:28 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Dark Polymer (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-dark-polymer-field-tested) [Shmichael](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Shmichael) $0.50 0.5 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $0.11 0.11 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.22x 2026-11-11 13:28 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 9 Nov, 14:05 UTC | $0.50 | 95.75% | 39 |
| 3 Nov, 04:28 UTC | $0.50 | 96.08% | 39 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.0% classified 0.0% Legendary 0.1% Classified 0.1% pink 0.3% industrial 0.1% #8847ff 3.4% violet 1.6% Rare 4.5% restricted 8.0% mil spec 6.0% Uncommon 9.0% Mythical 8.0% #4b69ff 18.0% #5e98d9 5.0% blue 9.0% milspec 8.0% blueLight 7.0% consumer 4.0% gray 4.0% light blue 4.0% best hit $129 (257.2x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 95.8% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $95.75 on average: an expected loss of $4.25 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt