---
title: "Monster \"Z\" case on Hotpizza.gg: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Monster \"Z\" ($0.75) on Hotpizza.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.89% from 34 items with odds, observed 89.88% over 62.5K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/38
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:40Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hotpizza.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hotpizza) / [Monster "Z"](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/38)

# [Hotpizza.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hotpizza) · Monster "Z"

A case on Hotpizza.gg (Monster Pizza), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hotpizza.gg's own item price converted from hotpizza point at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/38?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/38?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/38) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/38?window=all)

Price · $0.75 · 0.75 HOTPIZZA\_POINT

Advertised RTP · 89.89% · EV $0.67 from 34 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 89.88% · 62.5K openings, odds method

Variance · 12.9× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 23.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 77.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 89.80% ±8.08 7,567 openings

7 days · 89.78% ±3.06 52.6K openings

30 days · 89.88% ±2.81 62.5K openings

since tracking started · 89.88% ±2.81 62.5K openings

81.0% 89.8% 98.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/38?window=24h) | 7,567 | 89.80% ±8.08 | −0.0σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/38?window=7d) | 52.6K | 89.78% ±3.06 | −0.2σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/38) | 62.5K | 89.88% ±2.81 | −0.2σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/38?window=all) | 62.5K | 89.88% ±2.81 | −0.2σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 34 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 62.6K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 10,000 | $149 149 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.2% | 8 | 6.3 | 1.28× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Bright Water (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-bright-water-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $147 147 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.4% | 13 | 12.5 | 1.04× |
| [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $22.46 22.46 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.3% | 60 | 62.6 | 0.96× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Worm God (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-worm-god-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000 | $5.21 5.21 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.8% | 60 | 62.6 | 0.96× |
| [MAG-7 \| Core Breach (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-core-breach-minimal-wear) | 1 in 500 | $4.42 4.42 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.3% | 106 | 125.2 | 0.85× |
| [StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Parallax (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-parallax-battle-scarred) | 1 in 455 | $4.09 4.09 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.3% | 117 | 137.7 | 0.85× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Liquidation (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-liquidation-battle-scarred) | 1 in 333 | $3.88 3.88 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.7% | 176 | 187.7 | 0.94× |
| [USP-S \| Purple DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-purple-ddpat-field-tested) | 1 in 167 | $3.13 3.13 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.8% | 382 | 375.5 | 1.02× |
| [FAMAS \| Sergeant (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-sergeant-field-tested) | 1 in 167 | $2.75 2.75 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.4% | 127 | 375.5 | 0.34× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Violent Daimyo (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-violent-daimyo-factory-new) | 1 in 143 | $2.16 2.16 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.2% | 176 | 438.0 | 0.40× |
| [SG 553 \| Dragon Tech (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-dragon-tech-factory-new) | 1 in 111 | $1.40 1.4 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.9% | 185 | 563.2 | 0.33× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Space Cat (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-space-cat-factory-new) | 1 in 80 | $1.31 1.31 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.4% | 268 | 782.2 | 0.34× |
| [StatTrak™ XM1014 \| Zombie Offensive (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-xm1014-zombie-offensive-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $1.26 1.26 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.7% | 1,269 | 1251.5 | 1.01× |
| [USP-S \| Sleeping Potion (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-sleeping-potion-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $1.16 1.16 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.4% | 1,275 | 1251.5 | 1.02× |
| [StatTrak™ M249 \| System Lock (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m249-system-lock-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $1.02 1.02 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.0% | 1,237 | 1251.5 | 0.99× |
| [MAC-10 \| Pipsqueak (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-pipsqueak-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $0.97 0.97 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.9% | 1,282 | 1251.5 | 1.02× |
| [Glock-18 \| Catacombs (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-catacombs-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $0.82 0.82 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.6% | 1,881 | 1877.3 | 1.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-night-terror-battle-scarred) | 1 in 33 | $0.78 0.78 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.5% | 1,819 | 1877.3 | 0.97× |
| [MP9 \| Urban Sovereign (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-urban-sovereign-well-worn) | 1 in 25 | $0.76 0.76 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.5% | 2,489 | 2503.1 | 0.99× |
| [G3SG1 \| Dream Glade (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-dream-glade-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $0.72 0.72 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 5.3% | 3,158 | 3128.8 | 1.01× |
| [Glock-18 \| Teal Graf (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-teal-graf-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $0.64 0.64 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 5.7% | 3,819 | 3754.6 | 1.02× |
| [AK-47 \| Uncharted (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-uncharted-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $0.62 0.62 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 5.5% | 3,803 | 3754.6 | 1.01× |
| [M4A1-S \| Nitro (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nitro-battle-scarred) | 1 in 17 | $0.54 0.54 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.8% | 3,729 | 3754.6 | 0.99× |
| [P90 \| Ancient Earth (Minimal Wear) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-ancient-earth-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $0.50 0.5 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 5.2% | 4,403 | 4380.4 | 1.01× |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Bronze Deco (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-bronze-deco-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $0.48 0.48 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.3% | 3,657 | 3754.6 | 0.97× |
| [Glock-18 \| Off World (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-off-world-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $0.43 0.43 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.8% | 3,837 | 3754.6 | 1.02× |
| [MAC-10 \| Candy Apple (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-candy-apple-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $0.36 0.36 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.2% | 3,732 | 3754.6 | 0.99× |
| [Glock-18 \| Teal Graf (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-teal-graf-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $0.32 0.32 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.4% | 3,188 | 3128.8 | 1.02× |
| [USP-S \| Silent Shot (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-silent-shot-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $0.30 0.3 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.8% | 2,543 | 2503.1 | 1.02× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Hideout (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-hideout-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $0.29 0.29 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.7% | 2,555 | 2503.1 | 1.02× |
| [Negev \| Bulkhead (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-bulkhead-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $0.26 0.26 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.5% | 2,519 | 2503.1 | 1.01× |
| [AK-47 \| Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safari-mesh-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $0.22 0.22 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.3% | 2,507 | 2503.1 | 1.00× |
| [UMP-45 \| Late Night Transit (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-late-night-transit-well-worn) | 1 in 25 | $0.19 0.19 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.1% | 2,535 | 2503.1 | 1.01× |
| [USP-S \| PC-GRN (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-pc-grn-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $0.13 0.13 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.8% | 2,447 | 2503.1 | 0.98× |

Values are Hotpizza.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hotpizza:api/data`, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Shadow Daggers | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) [Gotteshand](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Gotteshand) $0.75 0.75 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $149 149 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 199.1x 2026-11-10 22:46 UTC

[★ Shadow Daggers | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) [ЗЕЛИБОБА](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/%D0%97%D0%95%D0%9B%D0%98%D0%91%D0%9E%D0%91%D0%90) $0.75 0.75 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $149 149 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 199.1x 2026-11-08 13:22 UTC

[★ Shadow Daggers | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) [Huyz](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Huyz) $0.75 0.75 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $149 149 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 199.1x 2026-11-08 03:06 UTC

[★ Shadow Daggers | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) [Featler](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Featler) $0.75 0.75 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $149 149 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 199.1x 2026-11-07 07:09 UTC

[★ Shadow Daggers | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) [Guac It](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Guac%20It) $0.75 0.75 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $149 149 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 199.1x 2026-11-06 06:27 UTC

[★ Shadow Daggers | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) [jetpans](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/jetpans) $0.75 0.75 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $149 149 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 199.1x 2026-11-06 04:30 UTC

[★ Shadow Daggers | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) [Ⱥƞɖᶉϵὦ](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/%C8%BA%C6%9E%C9%96%E1%B6%89%CF%B5%E1%BD%A6) $0.75 0.75 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $149 149 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 199.1x 2026-11-05 03:51 UTC

[★ Shadow Daggers | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) [alxn](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/alxn) $0.75 0.75 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $149 149 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 199.1x 2026-11-05 00:26 UTC

[★ Flip Knife | Bright Water (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-bright-water-factory-new) [Esqi](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Esqi) $0.75 0.75 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $147 147 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 195.7x 2026-11-11 04:27 UTC

[★ Flip Knife | Bright Water (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-bright-water-factory-new) [🔥 Mephisto 🔥](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/%F0%9F%94%A5%20Mephisto%20%F0%9F%94%A5) $0.75 0.75 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $147 147 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 195.7x 2026-11-09 00:09 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hotpizza&case=38)

[USP-S | PC-GRN (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-pc-grn-field-tested) [Freedom](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Freedom) $0.75 0.75 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $0.13 0.13 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.17x 2026-11-11 13:40 UTC

[Glock-18 | Teal Graf (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-teal-graf-factory-new) [smelvin](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/smelvin) $0.75 0.75 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $0.64 0.64 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.85x 2026-11-11 13:39 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Violent Daimyo (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-violent-daimyo-factory-new) [Joey Salads](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Joey%20Salads) $0.75 0.75 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $2.16 2.16 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 2.88x 2026-11-11 13:39 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Hideout (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-hideout-factory-new) [Isukki](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Isukki) $0.75 0.75 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $0.29 0.29 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.39x 2026-11-11 13:39 UTC

[Glock-18 | Off World (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-off-world-minimal-wear) [bExa](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/bExa) $0.75 0.75 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $0.43 0.43 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.57x 2026-11-11 13:39 UTC

[MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-urban-sovereign-well-worn) [smelvin](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/smelvin) $0.75 0.75 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $0.76 0.76 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 1.01x 2026-11-11 13:39 UTC

[AK-47 | Uncharted (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-uncharted-field-tested) [smelvin](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/smelvin) $0.75 0.75 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $0.62 0.62 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.83x 2026-11-11 13:39 UTC

[Glock-18 | Teal Graf (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-teal-graf-factory-new) [ederguedesdosantos23](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/ederguedesdosantos23) $0.75 0.75 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $0.64 0.64 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.85x 2026-11-11 13:39 UTC

[StatTrak™ M249 | System Lock (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m249-system-lock-minimal-wear) [ederguedesdosantos23](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/ederguedesdosantos23) $0.75 0.75 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $1.02 1.02 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 1.36x 2026-11-11 13:39 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Hideout (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-hideout-factory-new) [bExa](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/bExa) $0.75 0.75 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $0.29 0.29 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.39x 2026-11-11 13:39 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 8 Nov, 10:33 UTC | $0.75 | 89.89% | 34 |
| 3 Nov, 04:28 UTC | $0.75 | 90.24% | 34 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.0% classified 0.1% #8847ff 4.0% restricted 6.5% Restricted 2.2% blue 5.3% Mythical 5.9% Rare 23.0% milspec 17.0% violet 7.0% gray 7.0% industrial 14.0% #4b69ff 8.0% best hit $149 (199.1x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.89 on average: an expected loss of $10.11 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt