---
title: "Monster \"Z\" case on Hotpizza.gg: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Monster \"Z\" ($1.20) on Hotpizza.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 93.38% from 32 items with odds, observed 92.80% over 44.1K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/39
rendered: 2026-11-11T14:09Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hotpizza.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hotpizza) / [Monster "Z"](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/39)

# [Hotpizza.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hotpizza) · Monster "Z"

A case on Hotpizza.gg (Monster Pizza), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hotpizza.gg's own item price converted from hotpizza point at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/39?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/39?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/39) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/39?window=all)

Price · $1.20 · 1.2 HOTPIZZA\_POINT

Advertised RTP · 93.38% · EV $1.12 from 32 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 92.80% · 44.1K openings, odds method

Variance · 6.0× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 20.1% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 79.9% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 101.54% ±6.56 5,327 openings

7 days · 92.88% ±2.49 37K openings

30 days · 92.80% ±2.28 44.1K openings

since tracking started · 92.80% ±2.28 44.1K openings

89.5% 99.3% 109.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/39?window=24h) | 5,327 | 101.54% ±6.56 | +2.4σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/39?window=7d) | 37K | 92.88% ±2.49 | −0.4σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/39) | 44.1K | 92.80% ±2.28 | −0.5σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/39?window=all) | 44.1K | 92.80% ±2.28 | −0.5σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 32 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 44.3K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ StatTrak™ Survival Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-survival-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $165 165 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.5% | 9 | 4.4 | 2.03× |
| [StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Bad Trip (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-famas-bad-trip-battle-scarred) | 1 in 714 | $49.26 49.26 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 6.2% | 54 | 62.0 | 0.87× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-cyber-security-field-tested) | 1 in 500 | $30.44 30.44 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 5.4% | 79 | 88.5 | 0.89× |
| [M4A4 \| Jungle Tiger (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-jungle-tiger-minimal-wear) | 1 in 286 | $10.04 10.04 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.1% | 153 | 154.9 | 0.99× |
| [AK-47 \| Steel Delta (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-steel-delta-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $8.24 8.24 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.7% | 208 | 221.3 | 0.94× |
| [StatTrak™ Dual Berettas \| Melondrama (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-dual-berettas-melondrama-well-worn) | 1 in 200 | $6.05 6.05 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.7% | 201 | 221.3 | 0.91× |
| [StatTrak™ MAG-7 \| Praetorian (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mag-7-praetorian-field-tested) | 1 in 143 | $3.61 3.61 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.3% | 295 | 309.8 | 0.95× |
| [MAC-10 \| Heat (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-heat-well-worn) | 1 in 143 | $2.60 2.6 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.6% | 275 | 309.8 | 0.89× |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Trigger Discipline (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-trigger-discipline-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $2.09 2.09 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.9% | 385 | 442.6 | 0.87× |
| [Souvenir AUG \| Eye of Zapems (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-aug-eye-of-zapems-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $1.91 1.91 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.7% | 432 | 442.6 | 0.98× |
| [AK-47 \| Breakthrough (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-breakthrough-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $1.87 1.87 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.7% | 448 | 442.6 | 1.01× |
| [Souvenir MAC-10 \| Candy Apple (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mac-10-candy-apple-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $1.79 1.79 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.2% | 901 | 885.1 | 1.02× |
| [M4A4 \| Converter (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-converter-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $1.67 1.67 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.0% | 904 | 885.1 | 1.02× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Retrobution (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-retrobution-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $1.56 1.56 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.8% | 898 | 885.1 | 1.01× |
| [Glock-18 \| Block-18 (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-block-18-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $1.50 1.5 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.7% | 896 | 885.1 | 1.01× |
| [StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Allure (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-allure-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $1.42 1.42 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.5% | 863 | 885.1 | 0.97× |
| [M4A1-S \| Glitched Paint (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-glitched-paint-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $1.36 1.36 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.4% | 935 | 885.1 | 1.06× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Heat Treated (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-heat-treated-well-worn) | 1 in 50 | $1.26 1.26 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.2% | 861 | 885.1 | 0.97× |
| [AWP \| Pit Viper (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pit-viper-battle-scarred) | 1 in 33 | $1.08 1.08 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.9% | 1,295 | 1327.7 | 0.98× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Emphorosaur-S (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-emphorosaur-s-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $0.96 0.96 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.3% | 2,194 | 2212.8 | 0.99× |
| [M4A4 \| Converter (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-converter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $0.94 0.94 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 5.0% | 2,633 | 2655.4 | 0.99× |
| [M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-night-terror-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $0.89 0.89 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 5.6% | 3,094 | 3098.0 | 1.00× |
| [MP7 \| Amberline (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-amberline-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $0.85 0.85 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 5.3% | 3,140 | 3098.0 | 1.01× |
| [M4A1-S \| Electrum (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-electrum-well-worn) | 1 in 13 | $0.83 0.83 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 5.9% | 3,558 | 3496.3 | 1.02× |
| [P2000 \| Gnarled (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $0.74 0.74 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.6% | 3,085 | 3098.0 | 1.00× |
| [P90 \| Vent Rush (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-vent-rush-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $0.70 0.7 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.4% | 3,098 | 3098.0 | 1.00× |
| [Galil AR \| Sky Mandala (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-sky-mandala-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $0.67 0.67 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.6% | 2,326 | 2655.4 | 0.88× |
| [AK-47 \| Wintergreen (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wintergreen-battle-scarred) | 1 in 17 | $0.55 0.55 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.9% | 2,585 | 2655.4 | 0.97× |
| [UMP-45 \| Warm Blooded (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-warm-blooded-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $0.44 0.44 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.4% | 2,739 | 2655.4 | 1.03× |
| [M4A1-S \| Wash me plz (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-wash-me-plz-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $0.32 0.32 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.4% | 2,230 | 2212.8 | 1.01× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Fraise Crane (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fraise-crane-well-worn) | 1 in 25 | $0.23 0.23 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.8% | 1,803 | 1770.3 | 1.02× |
| [MP9 \| Shredded (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-shredded-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $0.15 0.15 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.4% | 1,340 | 1327.7 | 1.01× |

Values are Hotpizza.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hotpizza:api/data`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ StatTrak™ Survival Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-survival-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) [Fundyr](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Fundyr) $1.20 1.2 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $165 165 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 137.3x 2026-11-11 14:07 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ Survival Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-survival-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) [Прорoк санбой](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/%D0%9F%D1%80%D0%BE%D1%80o%D0%BA%20%D1%81%D0%B0%D0%BD%D0%B1%D0%BE%D0%B9) $1.20 1.2 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $165 165 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 137.3x 2026-11-10 19:53 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ Survival Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-survival-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) [Hendricu](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Hendricu) $1.20 1.2 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $165 165 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 137.3x 2026-11-10 06:48 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ Survival Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-survival-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) [Skola](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Skola) $1.20 1.2 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $165 165 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 137.3x 2026-11-10 03:19 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ Survival Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-survival-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) [FLEXkG](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/FLEXkG) $1.20 1.2 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $165 165 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 137.3x 2026-11-09 22:37 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ Survival Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-survival-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) [2004 Honda Civic](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/2004%20Honda%20Civic) $1.20 1.2 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $165 165 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 137.3x 2026-11-09 00:44 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ Survival Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-survival-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) [hEn1 respeita #soytanvoraz](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/hEn1%20respeita%20%23soytanvoraz) $1.20 1.2 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $165 165 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 137.3x 2026-11-07 19:54 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ Survival Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-survival-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) [damian](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/damian) $1.20 1.2 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $165 165 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 137.3x 2026-11-06 19:56 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ Survival Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-survival-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) [OSRiddle](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/OSRiddle) $1.20 1.2 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $165 165 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 137.3x 2026-11-06 02:33 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hotpizza&case=39)

[StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Praetorian (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mag-7-praetorian-field-tested) [gravy](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/gravy) $1.20 1.2 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $3.61 3.61 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 3.01x 2026-11-11 14:08 UTC

[Souvenir MAC-10 | Candy Apple (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mac-10-candy-apple-minimal-wear) [gravy](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/gravy) $1.20 1.2 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $1.79 1.79 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 1.49x 2026-11-11 14:08 UTC

[AK-47 | Wintergreen (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wintergreen-battle-scarred) [gravy](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/gravy) $1.20 1.2 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $0.55 0.55 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.46x 2026-11-11 14:08 UTC

[P2000 | Gnarled (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-factory-new) [gravy](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/gravy) $1.20 1.2 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $0.74 0.74 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.62x 2026-11-11 14:08 UTC

[P2000 | Gnarled (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-factory-new) [Admiral✵Kid](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Admiral%E2%9C%B5Kid) $1.20 1.2 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $0.74 0.74 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.62x 2026-11-11 14:07 UTC

[M4A1-S | Wash me plz (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-wash-me-plz-factory-new) [Admiral✵Kid](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Admiral%E2%9C%B5Kid) $1.20 1.2 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $0.32 0.32 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.27x 2026-11-11 14:07 UTC

[StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Emphorosaur-S (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-emphorosaur-s-field-tested) [fidel castro](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/fidel%20castro) $1.20 1.2 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $0.96 0.96 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.80x 2026-11-11 14:07 UTC

[M4A4 | Converter (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-converter-minimal-wear) [Fundyr](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Fundyr) $1.20 1.2 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $0.94 0.94 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.78x 2026-11-11 14:07 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fraise-crane-well-worn) [fidel castro](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/fidel%20castro) $1.20 1.2 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $0.23 0.23 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.19x 2026-11-11 14:07 UTC

[MP7 | Amberline (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-amberline-field-tested) [Fundyr](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Fundyr) $1.20 1.2 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $0.85 0.85 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.71x 2026-11-11 14:07 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 4 Nov, 08:11 UTC | $1.20 | 93.38% | 32 |
| 3 Nov, 04:28 UTC | $1.20 | 93.23% | 32 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert knife 0.0% red 0.1% Classified 0.2% industrial 7.4% blue 11.5% #d32ee6 0.5% restricted 11.4% other 1.0% violet 29.9% pink 2.0% mil spec 6.0% Mythical 7.0% #4b69ff 17.0% milspec 6.0% best hit $165 (137.3x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 93.4% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $93.38 on average: an expected loss of $6.62 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt