---
title: "Boris case on Hotpizza.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Boris ($2.50) on Hotpizza.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 97.12% from 32 items with odds, observed 93.75% over 25.3K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/40
rendered: 2026-11-11T15:55Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hotpizza.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hotpizza) / [Boris](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/40)

# [Hotpizza.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hotpizza) · Boris

A case on Hotpizza.gg (Premium cases), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hotpizza.gg's own item price converted from hotpizza point at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/40?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/40?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/40) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/40?window=all)

Price · $2.50 · 2.5 HOTPIZZA\_POINT

Advertised RTP · 97.12% · EV $2.43 from 32 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 93.75% · 25.3K openings, odds method

Variance · 4.1× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 27.5% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 72.5% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 92.75% ±7.26 2,957 openings

7 days · 92.93% ±2.72 21.1K openings

30 days · 93.75% ±2.49 25.3K openings

since tracking started · 93.75% ±2.49 25.3K openings

85.0% 92.8% 100.5%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 97.04% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (91.26% – 96.24%, 25,306 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/40?window=24h) | 2,957 | 92.75% ±7.26 | −1.2σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/40?window=7d) | 21.1K | 92.93% ±2.72 | −3.0σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/40) | 25.3K | 93.75% ±2.49 | −2.6σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hotpizza/40?window=all) | 25.3K | 93.75% ±2.49 | −2.6σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 32 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 25.4K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-falchion-knife-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000 | $121 121 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 5.0% | 22 | 25.4 | 0.87× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Freehand (Factory New) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-freehand-factory-new) | 1 in 714 | $58.43 58.43 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.4% | 30 | 35.5 | 0.85× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Lore (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-lore-battle-scarred) | 1 in 500 | $47.73 47.73 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.9% | 36 | 50.7 | 0.71× |
| [Souvenir MAG-7 \| Bulldozer (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mag-7-bulldozer-field-tested) | 1 in 400 | $18.34 18.34 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.9% | 60 | 63.4 | 0.95× |
| [Souvenir Glock-18 \| Pink DDPAT (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-glock-18-pink-ddpat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 250 | $16.30 16.3 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.7% | 79 | 101.4 | 0.78× |
| [Tec-9 \| Fuel Injector (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-fuel-injector-battle-scarred) | 1 in 200 | $11.20 11.2 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.3% | 119 | 126.8 | 0.94× |
| [XM1014 \| Incinegator (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-incinegator-field-tested) | 1 in 143 | $6.74 6.74 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.9% | 167 | 177.5 | 0.94× |
| [P90 \| Deathgaze (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-deathgaze-well-worn) | 1 in 125 | $5.64 5.64 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.9% | 213 | 202.9 | 1.05× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Yellow Jacket (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-yellow-jacket-well-worn) | 1 in 111 | $4.52 4.52 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.7% | 236 | 228.2 | 1.03× |
| [Glock-18 \| Catacombs (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-catacombs-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $4.46 4.46 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.8% | 253 | 253.6 | 1.00× |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Weasel (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-weasel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $3.68 3.68 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.5% | 273 | 253.6 | 1.08× |
| [StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Wild Child (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ump-45-wild-child-field-tested) | 1 in 67 | $3.50 3.5 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.2% | 318 | 380.4 | 0.84× |
| [FAMAS \| 2A2F (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-2a2f-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $2.96 2.96 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.0% | 514 | 633.9 | 0.81× |
| [AK-47 \| Midnight Laminate (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-midnight-laminate-well-worn) | 1 in 29 | $2.95 2.95 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.3% | 801 | 887.5 | 0.90× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Crazy 8 (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-crazy-8-factory-new) | 1 in 22 | $2.78 2.78 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 5.2% | 1,122 | 1141.1 | 0.98× |
| [AWP \| Black Nile (Field-Tested) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-black-nile-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $2.65 2.65 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.9% | 1,139 | 1141.1 | 1.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Royal Legion (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-royal-legion-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $2.59 2.59 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 5.3% | 1,267 | 1267.9 | 1.00× |
| [StatTrak™ MP7 \| Special Delivery (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp7-special-delivery-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $2.48 2.48 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 5.1% | 1,256 | 1267.9 | 0.99× |
| [StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Fever Dream (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-fever-dream-field-tested) | 1 in 18 | $2.14 2.14 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.8% | 1,478 | 1394.7 | 1.06× |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Blue Ply (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-blue-ply-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $1.90 1.9 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.7% | 1,525 | 1521.5 | 1.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Sheet Lightning (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-sheet-lightning-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $1.85 1.85 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 5.3% | 1,793 | 1775.1 | 1.01× |
| [AUG \| Aristocrat (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-aristocrat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $1.74 1.74 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 5.0% | 1,744 | 1775.1 | 0.98× |
| [SSG 08 \| Spring Twilly (Well-Worn) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-spring-twilly-well-worn) | 1 in 17 | $1.69 1.69 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 4.2% | 1,306 | 1521.5 | 0.86× |
| [AUG \| Eye of Zapems (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-eye-of-zapems-battle-scarred) | 1 in 18 | $1.56 1.56 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.5% | 1,340 | 1397.2 | 0.96× |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Weasel (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-weasel-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $1.44 1.44 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 3.0% | 1,231 | 1267.9 | 0.97× |
| [Zeus x27 \| Charged Up (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-charged-up-well-worn) | 1 in 20 | $1.43 1.43 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.9% | 1,246 | 1267.9 | 0.98× |
| [StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Exposure (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ump-45-exposure-battle-scarred) | 1 in 25 | $1.40 1.4 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.3% | 981 | 1014.3 | 0.97× |
| [M4A1-S \| Solitude (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-solitude-battle-scarred) | 1 in 25 | $1.25 1.25 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 2.1% | 1,028 | 1014.3 | 1.01× |
| [M4A1-S \| Liquidation (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-liquidation-battle-scarred) | 1 in 29 | $0.91 0.91 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.3% | 995 | 887.5 | 1.12× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Dark Polymer (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-dark-polymer-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $0.80 0.8 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.0% | 132 | 760.7 | 0.17× |
| [MP7 \| Anodized Navy (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-anodized-navy-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $0.78 0.78 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 1.0% | 798 | 760.7 | 1.05× |
| [M4A4 \| Sheet Lightning (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-sheet-lightning-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $0.72 0.72 HOTPIZZA\_POINT | 0.9% | 778 | 760.7 | 1.02× |

Values are Hotpizza.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hotpizza:api/data`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hotpizza&case=40)

[AUG | Eye of Zapems (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-eye-of-zapems-battle-scarred) [Handly](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Handly) $2.50 2.5 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $1.56 1.56 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.62x 2026-11-11 15:55 UTC

[M4A4 | Sheet Lightning (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-sheet-lightning-minimal-wear) [Handly](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Handly) $2.50 2.5 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $1.85 1.85 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.74x 2026-11-11 15:55 UTC

[StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Exposure (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ump-45-exposure-battle-scarred) [Commission of Counter Ghoul](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Commission%20of%20Counter%20Ghoul) $2.50 2.5 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $1.40 1.4 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.56x 2026-11-11 15:54 UTC

[AUG | Eye of Zapems (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-eye-of-zapems-battle-scarred) [GangsterJim69](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/GangsterJim69) $2.50 2.5 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $1.56 1.56 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.62x 2026-11-11 15:54 UTC

[M4A4 | Sheet Lightning (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-sheet-lightning-minimal-wear) [Doom](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Doom) $2.50 2.5 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $1.85 1.85 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.74x 2026-11-11 15:54 UTC

[M4A4 | Sheet Lightning (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-sheet-lightning-minimal-wear) [Jahel](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Jahel) $2.50 2.5 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $1.85 1.85 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.74x 2026-11-11 15:54 UTC

[M4A1-S | Solitude (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-solitude-battle-scarred) [geceieN](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/geceieN) $2.50 2.5 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $1.25 1.25 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.50x 2026-11-11 15:54 UTC

[AK-47 | Midnight Laminate (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-midnight-laminate-well-worn) [Ja.](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Ja.) $2.50 2.5 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $2.95 2.95 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 1.18x 2026-11-11 15:54 UTC

[AUG | Aristocrat (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-aristocrat-minimal-wear) [Even.](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Even.) $2.50 2.5 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $1.74 1.74 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 0.70x 2026-11-11 15:54 UTC

[FAMAS | 2A2F (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-2a2f-factory-new) [Headass In The House](https://gambatracker.com/players/hotpizza/Headass%20In%20The%20House) $2.50 2.5 HOTPIZZA\_POINT $2.96 2.96 HOTPIZZA\_POINT 1.18x 2026-11-11 15:54 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 08:05 UTC | $2.50 | 97.12% | 32 |
| 4 Nov, 14:11 UTC | $2.50 | 97.05% | 32 |
| 3 Nov, 04:28 UTC | $2.50 | 96.97% | 32 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert knife 0.1% Immortal 0.1% covert 0.2% restricted 30.8% Restricted 0.4% classified 3.6% pink 0.8% Mil Spec 7.0% Mythical 6.5% #4b69ff 2.5% violet 17.5% Mil Spec Grade 10.5% #8847ff 10.0% #d32ce6 4.0% milspec 3.0% blue 3.0% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 97.1% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $97.12 on average: an expected loss of $2.88 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt